** WTSR20 WSSS 271800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTUS82 KKEY 280013 *** HLSKEY FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-280030- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 815 PM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006 ...HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...MANDATORY EVACUATION OF ALL VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS IN EFFECT... ...NEW INFORMATION... TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO HAS MOVED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AND DECREASED SLIGHTLY IN INTENSITY. IT IS NOW LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.4 WEST...AND HAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND ALL SURROUNDING WATERS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 800 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.4 WEST...OR ABOUT 625 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MARATHON...OR 650 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST. TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL MOVE AWAY FROM SOUTHWESTERN HAITI TONIGHT...AND BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA MONDAY MORNING. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AFTER IT MOVES AWAY FROM SOUTHWESTERN HAITI...AND IT COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE IT REACHES THE SOUTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA TOMORROW MORNING. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 1004 MB...OR 29.65 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ORDERED A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF ALL VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS. ALL TRAVEL TRAILERS AND RECREATIONAL VEHICLES MUST LEAVE THE KEYS IMMEDIATELY. A LOCAL STATE OF EMERGENCY HAS BEEN DECLARED BY MONROE COUNTY. THE EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER WILL BE ACTIVATED AT LEVEL ONE AT 600 AM MONDAY. ALL COUNTY AND STATE PARKS ARE CLOSED. THE EVACUATION OF SPECIAL NEEDS RESIDENTS TO THE MONROE COUNTY SHELTER AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY IS TO BEGIN AT 600 AM MONDAY. AT 1000 AM MONDAY...AN EVACUATION FOR ALL MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS WILL GO IN EFFECT. THE 18 MILE STRETCH WILL CLOSE TONIGHT AT 800 PM UNTIL 600 AM MONDAY...AND TRAFFIC WILL BE DIVERTED TO CARD SOUND ROAD. TOLLS HAVE BEEN LIFTED ON CARD SOUND ROAD. THE MONROE COUNTY SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT 1000 AM MONDAY. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT SHOULD REMAIN OPERATIONAL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ...WINDS... WINDS WILL REMAIN SAFE FOR TRAVEL FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE KEYS POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS MIDDAY TUESDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN KEY WEST IS 59 PERCENT...AND 61 PERCENT IN MARATHON. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IN KEY WEST IS 12 PERCENT...AND 13 PERCENT IN MARATHON. ...MARINE... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT STARTING LATE MONDAY. EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT...WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS MONDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT MONDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS REACHING THE FLORIDA STRAITS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE APPROACH OF ERNESTO. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1130 PM EDT...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. VISIT OUR KEY WEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ DFM/MR/MS ** WTNT85 KNHC 280016 *** TCVAT5 ERNESTO WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 800 PM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006 .TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FLC087-270300- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 800 PM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ GMZ032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-270300- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 800 PM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...KEY... ** WTCA45 TJSJ 280018 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN HURACAN ERNESTO ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 13A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL052006 800 PM EDT DOMINGO 27 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...ERNESTO SE DEBILITA UN POCO MAS PERO CONITNUAN LAS LLUVIAS TORRENCIALES... A LAS 8 PM...0000 UTC...EL GOBIERNO DE LAS ISLAS CAYMAN HA DEGRADADO LA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LAS ISLAS CAYMAN A UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LITTLE CAYMAN Y CAYMAN BRAC...Y LA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA GRAND CAYMAN HA SIDO DESCONTINUADA. VIGILANCIAS ADICIONALES DE HURACAN PUDIERAN SER REQUERIDAS PARA PORCIONES DE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA MAS TARDE ESTA NOCHE. TAMBIEN SE PUDIERAN REQUERIR VIGILANCIAS PARA PORCIONES DE LAS BAHAMAS CENTRAL Y NOROESTE TARDE ESTA NOCHE. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA EL SUROESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE HAITI DESDE LA FRONTERA ENTRE HAITI Y LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA AL OESTE HACIA EL SUROESTE DE HAITI. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...Y CAMAGUEY. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE PUEDEN ESPERAR CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN DE SER COMPLETADOS. SE RECOMIENDA UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA SUR DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA DESDE BARAHONA HASTA LA FRONTERA ENTRE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA Y HAITI. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO...EN ESTE CASO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 12 A 24 HORAS. PERMANECEN EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA JAMAICA. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL AREA EN EL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE... CUBA...EL NORESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DE MEXICO...EL SUR DE LA FLORIDA...Y EL SURESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO...DEBEN ESTAR ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ERNESTO. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA A SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 800 PM EDT...0000Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN ERNESTO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 18.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 74.4 OESTE ESTA POSICION ESTA BIEN CERCA DE LA PARTE SUROESTE DE HAITI...CERCA DE 150 MILLAS...240 KILOMETROS...OESTE SUROESTE DE PUERTO PRINCIPE Y CERCA DE 160 MILLAS...255 KILOMETROS...AL SUR SURESTE DE GUANTANAMO CUBA. ERNESTO SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH... 12 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...SE ESPERA QUE EL CENTRO DE ERNESTO SE ALEJE DEL EXTREMO SUROESTE DE HAITI ESTA NOCHE...Y QUE ESTE CERCA DE LA COSTA ESTE DE CUBA EN LA MANANA DEL LUNES. REPORTES DESDE EL AVION CAZA HURACANES INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 50 MPH...85 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA QUE ERNESTO SE FORTALEZCA DESPUES DE QUE SE ALEJE DEL SUROESTE DE HAITI Y PUDIERA VOLVER A CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN ANTES DE QUE ALCANZE LA COSTA SUR DEL ESTE DE CUBA MANANA EN LA MANANA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 115 MILLAS...185 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1004 MILIBARAS...29.65 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA OLEAJE DE HASTA 3 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA EN JAMAICA Y EL SUROESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE HAITI. SE ESPERA OLEAJE DE 4 A 6 PIES SOBRE LO NORMAL JUNTO CON OLAS GRANDES EN LA COSTA SUR DEL ESTE DE CUBA. SE ESPERAN CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 6 A 12 PULGADAS...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 20 PULGADAS...SOBRE HAITI Y LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA Y PORCIONES DE CUBA. ESTAS LLUVIAS PUDIERAN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS PELIGROSAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO. SE ESPERAN CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 8 PULGADAS...A TRAVES DE PARTES DE JAMAICA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 800 PM EDT...18.2 NORTE...74.4 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1004 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN ** WTCA45 TJSJ 280018 CCA *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN HURACAN ERNESTO ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 13A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL052006 800 PM EDT DOMINGO 27 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...ERNESTO SE DEBILITA UN POCO MAS PERO CONTINUAN LAS LLUVIAS TORRENCIALES... A LAS 8 PM...0000 UTC...EL GOBIERNO DE LAS ISLAS CAYMAN HA DEGRADADO LA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LAS ISLAS CAYMAN A UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LITTLE CAYMAN Y CAYMAN BRAC...Y LA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA GRAND CAYMAN HA SIDO DESCONTINUADA. VIGILANCIAS ADICIONALES DE HURACAN PUDIERAN SER REQUERIDAS PARA PORCIONES DE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA MAS TARDE ESTA NOCHE. TAMBIEN SE PUDIERAN REQUERIR VIGILANCIAS PARA PORCIONES DE LAS BAHAMAS CENTRAL Y NOROESTE TARDE ESTA NOCHE. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA EL SUROESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE HAITI DESDE LA FRONTERA ENTRE HAITI Y LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA AL OESTE HACIA EL SUROESTE DE HAITI. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...Y CAMAGUEY. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE PUEDEN ESPERAR CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN DE SER COMPLETADOS. SE RECOMIENDA UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA SUR DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA DESDE BARAHONA HASTA LA FRONTERA ENTRE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA Y HAITI. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO...EN ESTE CASO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 12 A 24 HORAS. PERMANECEN EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA JAMAICA. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL AREA EN EL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE... CUBA...EL NORESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DE MEXICO...EL SUR DE LA FLORIDA...Y EL SURESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO...DEBEN ESTAR ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ERNESTO. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA A SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 800 PM EDT...0000Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN ERNESTO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 18.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 74.4 OESTE ESTA POSICION ESTA BIEN CERCA DE LA PARTE SUROESTE DE HAITI...CERCA DE 150 MILLAS...240 KILOMETROS...OESTE SUROESTE DE PUERTO PRINCIPE Y CERCA DE 160 MILLAS...255 KILOMETROS...AL SUR SURESTE DE GUANTANAMO CUBA. ERNESTO SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH... 12 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...SE ESPERA QUE EL CENTRO DE ERNESTO SE ALEJE DEL EXTREMO SUROESTE DE HAITI ESTA NOCHE...Y QUE ESTE CERCA DE LA COSTA ESTE DE CUBA EN LA MANANA DEL LUNES. REPORTES DESDE EL AVION CAZA HURACANES INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 50 MPH...85 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA QUE ERNESTO SE FORTALEZCA DESPUES DE QUE SE ALEJE DEL SUROESTE DE HAITI Y PUDIERA VOLVER A CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN ANTES DE QUE ALCANZE LA COSTA SUR DEL ESTE DE CUBA MANANA EN LA MANANA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 115 MILLAS...185 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1004 MILIBARAS...29.65 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA OLEAJE DE HASTA 3 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA EN JAMAICA Y EL SUROESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE HAITI. SE ESPERA OLEAJE DE 4 A 6 PIES SOBRE LO NORMAL JUNTO CON OLAS GRANDES EN LA COSTA SUR DEL ESTE DE CUBA. SE ESPERAN CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 6 A 12 PULGADAS...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 20 PULGADAS...SOBRE HAITI Y LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA Y PORCIONES DE CUBA. ESTAS LLUVIAS PUDIERAN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS PELIGROSAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO. SE ESPERAN CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 8 PULGADAS...A TRAVES DE PARTES DE JAMAICA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 800 PM EDT...18.2 NORTE...74.4 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1004 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN ** WTNT85 KNHC 280022 *** TCVAT5 ERNESTO WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 800 PM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006 .TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FLC087-280300- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 800 PM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ GMZ032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-280300- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 800 PM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...KEY... ** WTPQ20 BABJ 280000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST SUPER TY IOKE 0612 (0612) INITIAL TIME 280000 UTC 00HR 16.7N 177.7E 920HPA 60M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 250KM P12HR WSW 15KM/H P+24HR 16.0N 174.5E 920HPA 60M/S P+48HR 16.3N 170.5E 910HPA 65M/S P+72HR 17.6N 166.5E 910HPA 65M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 280000 *** WARNING 280000. WARNING VALID 290000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0612 IOKE (0612) 920 HPA AT 16.6N 177.6E SOUTH OF MIDWAYS MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 290000UTC AT 16.4N 174.4E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 300000UTC AT 16.6N 170.7E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 310000UTC AT 17.5N 167.0E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 280000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 280000UTC 16.6N 177.6E GOOD MOVE WSW 10KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 50KT 90NM 30KT 200NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 290000UTC 16.4N 174.4E 80NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 48HF 300000UTC 16.6N 170.7E 150NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 72HF 310000UTC 17.5N 167.0E 220NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 280000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 2 FOR TY 0612 IOKE (0612) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 280000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 6.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTNT35 KNHC 280238 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006 ...ERNESTO CONTINUES TO BRING HEAVY RAINS TO HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE BAHAMAS. AT 11 PM...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 11 PM...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR ANDROS ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. AT 11 PM...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR JAMAICA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS... FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. ADDITIONAL HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA... GRANMA... HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.7 WEST OR ABOUT 155 MILES...255 KM...WEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 115 MILES... 185 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ERNESTO WILL BE VERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA TOMORROW MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO REGAIN STRENGTH AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF HAITI...AND COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM TO THE EAST THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. TIDES OF UP TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE IN JAMAICA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI. TIDES OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...ALONG WITH LARGE BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED ON THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF JAMAICA. REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...18.6 N...74.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTNT25 KNHC 280239 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 0300 UTC MON AUG 28 2006 AT 11 PM...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 11 PM...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR ANDROS ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. AT 11 PM...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR JAMAICA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS... FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. ADDITIONAL HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA... GRANMA... HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 74.7W AT 28/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 150SE 50SW 80NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 74.7W AT 28/0300Z AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 74.4W FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.6N 75.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 21.2N 77.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 22.8N 79.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 24.0N 81.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 27.0N 82.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 31.0N 81.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 35.0N 77.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 74.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTPN31 PGTW 280300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. SUPER TYPHOON 01C (IOKE) WARNING NR 033 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 280000Z --- NEAR 16.6N 177.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N 177.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 16.3N 175.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 16.4N 174.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 16.8N 172.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 17.4N 170.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z --- 19.4N 166.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 13 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 22.7N 162.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 26.2N 157.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT --- REMARKS: 280300Z POSITION NEAR 16.5N 177.1E. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 01C, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 650 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 48 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z, 281500Z, 282100Z AND 290300Z.// ** WTNT85 KNHC 280255 *** TCVAT5 ERNESTO WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006 .TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FLC087-280900- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ GMZ032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-280900- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...KEY... ** WTNT45 KNHC 280300 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006 THE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION ENDED AROUND 00Z...AND THE HIGHEST WINDS THE AIRCRAFT COULD FIND WERE 41 KT. THEY WERE UNABLE TO GET NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER DUE TO LAND...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THEY DID NOT SAMPLE THE STRONGEST WINDS. NEVERTHELESS...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KT IS PROBABLY HIGH. IN GENERAL...THE SATELLITE DEPICTION OF ERNESTO IS NOT AS STRONG AS IT WAS EARLIER IN THE DAY...WITH LITTLE BANDING AND CLOUD TOPS THAT HAVE WARMED SOMEWHAT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/6. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING OR THE FORECAST TRACK. ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS AGGRESSIVELY SHIFT THE MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW ERNESTO TO MOVE IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THERE HAS BEEN SOME CONVERGENCE IN THE GUIDANCE SUITE...WITH THE NOGAPS SHIFTING WESTWARD AND THE GFDL SHIFTING EASTWARD...AND BOTH TOWARD THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST...AND THE UKMET IS ON THE LEFT...JUST WEST OF THE KEYS. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS NOT MOVED MUCH AND NEITHER HAS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THERE COULD BE SOME SHIFTS WHEN THE 00Z MODELS COME OUT...AS THEY WILL HAVE THE BENEFIT OF DROPSONDE DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET AND AN AIR FORCE C-130. A QUICK LOOK AT SOME OF THE 500 MB DATA SHOWS SOMEWHAT HIGHER HEIGHTS IN THE BAHAMAS THAN FORECAST BY THE GFS...SO I WOULDN'T BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE THE 00Z MODELS SHIFT A LITTLE TO THE LEFT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS GREATLY COMPLICATED BY LAND INTERACTIONS WITH CUBA. SHOULD ERNESTO NOT REGAIN MUCH ORGANIZATION BEFORE REACHING CUBA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT NOT A LOT WILL BE LEFT OF THE CYCLONE WHEN IT EMERGES INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. HOWEVER...THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL ASSUME A VIGOROUS RESTRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND A SUBSTANTIAL CYCLONE SURVIVING THE PASSAGE OVER CUBA. IN THIS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL GUIDANCE...BUT WELL ABOVE THE SHIPS MODEL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/0300Z 18.6N 74.7W 45 KT 12HR VT 28/1200Z 19.6N 75.7W 60 KT 24HR VT 29/0000Z 21.2N 77.6W 55 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 29/1200Z 22.8N 79.5W 55 KT 48HR VT 30/0000Z 24.0N 81.0W 70 KT 72HR VT 31/0000Z 27.0N 82.0W 75 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 01/0000Z 31.0N 81.0W 55 KT 120HR VT 02/0000Z 35.0N 77.0W 50 KT...INLAND $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTCA45 TJSJ 280300 CCA *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN HURACAN ERNESTO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 14 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 PM EDT DOMINGO 27 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...ERNESTO CONTINUA TRAYENDO LLUVIAS FUERTES A HAITI Y LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA...NUEVOS AVISOS Y VIGILANCIAS EMITIDOS PARA LAS BAHAMAS... A LAS 11 PM...0300 UTC...EL GOBIERNO DE LAS BAHAMAS HA EMITIDO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA ISLA RAGGED Y GRAN EXUMA EN LAS BAHAMAS CENTRAL. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO EN LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. A LAS 11 PM...EL GOBIERNO DE LAS BAHAMAS HA EMITIDO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LA ISLA ANDROS EN EL NOROESTE DE BAHAMAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE LAS CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS 36 HORAS. A LAS 11 PM...EL GOBIERNO DE JAMAICA HA DESCONTINUADO LA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA JAMAICA. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA JAMAICA. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA TODOS LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA...DESDE OCEAN REEF HASTA DRY TORTUGAS. PUDIERAN REQUERIRSE VIGILANCIAS ADICIONALES DE HURACAN PARA PORCIONES DE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA TEMPRANO EN LA MANANA DE MANANA. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA EL SUROESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE HAITI DESDE LA FRONTERA ENTRE HAITI Y LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA AL OESTE HACIA EL SUROESTE DE HAITI. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...Y CAMAGUEY. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE PUEDEN ESPERAR CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN DE SER COMPLETADOS. SE RECOMIENDA UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA SUR DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA DESDE BARAHONA HASTA LA FRONTERA ENTRE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA Y HAITI. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LITTLE CAYMAN Y CAYMAN BRAC. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL AREA EN LAS BAHAMAS CENTRAL Y NOROESTE DEBEN PERMANECER ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ERNESTO. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA A SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN ERNESTO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 18.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 74.7 OESTE CERCA DE 155 MILLAS...255 KILOMETROS...OESTE DE PUERTO PRINCIPE Y CERCA DE 115 MILLAS...185 KILOMETROS...AL SUR SURESTE DE GUANTANAMO CUBA. ERNESTO SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH... 12 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...SE ESPERA QUE EL CENTRO DE ERNESTO SE ALEJE DEL EXTREMO SUROESTE DE HAITI ESTA NOCHE...Y QUE ESTE CERCA DE LA COSTA ESTE DE CUBA EN LA MANANA DEL LUNES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 50 MPH...85 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA QUE ERNESTO SE FORTALEZCA DESPUES DE QUE SE ALEJE DE LOS TERRENOS MONTANOSOS DE HAITI Y PUDIERA VOLVER A CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN ANTES DE QUE ALCANZE LA COSTA SUR DEL ESTE DE CUBA MANANA EN LA MANANA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 70 MILLAS...110 KILOMETROS AL ESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1004 MILIBARAS...29.65 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA OLEAJE DE HASTA 3 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA EN JAMAICA Y EL SUROESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE HAITI. SE ESPERA OLEAJE DE 4 A 6 PIES SOBRE LO NORMAL JUNTO CON OLAS GRANDES EN LA COSTA SUR DEL ESTE DE CUBA. SE ESPERAN CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 6 A 12 PULGADAS...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 20 PULGADAS...SOBRE HAITI Y LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA Y PORCIONES DE CUBA. ESTAS LLUVIAS PUDIERAN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS PELIGROSAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO. SE ESPERAN CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 6 PULGADAS...A TRAVES DE PARTES DE JAMAICA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 PM EDT...18.6 NORTE...74.7 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1004 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 AM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 AM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN ** WTCA45 TJSJ 280301 CCA *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 14 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 PM EDT DOMINGO 27 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...ERNESTO CONTINUA TRAYENDO LLUVIAS FUERTES A HAITI Y LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA...NUEVOS AVISOS Y VIGILANCIAS EMITIDOS PARA LAS BAHAMAS... A LAS 11 PM...0300 UTC...EL GOBIERNO DE LAS BAHAMAS HA EMITIDO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA ISLA RAGGED Y GRAN EXUMA EN LAS BAHAMAS CENTRAL. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO EN LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. A LAS 11 PM...EL GOBIERNO DE LAS BAHAMAS HA EMITIDO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LA ISLA ANDROS EN EL NOROESTE DE BAHAMAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE LAS CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS 36 HORAS. A LAS 11 PM...EL GOBIERNO DE JAMAICA HA DESCONTINUADO LA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA JAMAICA. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA JAMAICA. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA TODOS LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA...DESDE OCEAN REEF HASTA DRY TORTUGAS. PUDIERAN REQUERIRSE VIGILANCIAS ADICIONALES DE HURACAN PARA PORCIONES DE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA TEMPRANO EN LA MANANA DE MANANA. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA EL SUROESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE HAITI DESDE LA FRONTERA ENTRE HAITI Y LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA AL OESTE HACIA EL SUROESTE DE HAITI. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...Y CAMAGUEY. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE PUEDEN ESPERAR CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN DE SER COMPLETADOS. SE RECOMIENDA UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA SUR DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA DESDE BARAHONA HASTA LA FRONTERA ENTRE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA Y HAITI. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LITTLE CAYMAN Y CAYMAN BRAC. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL AREA EN LAS BAHAMAS CENTRAL Y NOROESTE DEBEN PERMANECER ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ERNESTO. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA A SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN ERNESTO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 18.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 74.7 OESTE CERCA DE 155 MILLAS...255 KILOMETROS...OESTE DE PUERTO PRINCIPE Y CERCA DE 115 MILLAS...185 KILOMETROS...AL SUR SURESTE DE GUANTANAMO CUBA. ERNESTO SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH... 12 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...SE ESPERA QUE EL CENTRO DE ERNESTO SE ALEJE DEL EXTREMO SUROESTE DE HAITI ESTA NOCHE...Y QUE ESTE CERCA DE LA COSTA ESTE DE CUBA EN LA MANANA DEL LUNES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 50 MPH...85 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA QUE ERNESTO SE FORTALEZCA DESPUES DE QUE SE ALEJE DE LOS TERRENOS MONTANOSOS DE HAITI Y PUDIERA VOLVER A CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN ANTES DE QUE ALCANZE LA COSTA SUR DEL ESTE DE CUBA MANANA EN LA MANANA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 70 MILLAS...110 KILOMETROS AL ESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1004 MILIBARAS...29.65 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA OLEAJE DE HASTA 3 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA EN JAMAICA Y EL SUROESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE HAITI. SE ESPERA OLEAJE DE 4 A 6 PIES SOBRE LO NORMAL JUNTO CON OLAS GRANDES EN LA COSTA SUR DEL ESTE DE CUBA. SE ESPERAN CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 6 A 12 PULGADAS...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 20 PULGADAS...SOBRE HAITI Y LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA Y PORCIONES DE CUBA. ESTAS LLUVIAS PUDIERAN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS PELIGROSAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO. SE ESPERAN CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 6 PULGADAS...A TRAVES DE PARTES DE JAMAICA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 PM EDT...18.6 NORTE...74.7 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1004 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 AM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 AM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN ** WTPQ31 PGUM 280321 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN SUPER TYPHOON IOKE (01C) ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 130 PM GUAM LST MON AUG 28 2006 ...SUPER TYPHOON IOKE CONTINUES MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 1 PM GUAM LST..0300Z..THE CENTER OF SUPER TYPHOON IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 177.1 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 715 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WAKE 760 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAJURO 620 MILES NORTHEAST OF UTIRIK AND 1030 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ENEWETAK. SUPER TYPHOON IOKE IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 12 MPH. IOKE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A SLIGHT TURN TO THE WEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 155 MPH. SUPER TYPHOON IOKE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN VERY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES FROM THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 1 PM POSITION...16.5 DEGREES NORTH AND 177.1 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 12 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 155 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 PM GUAM LST. $$ HENDRICKS ** WTUS82 KKEY 280330 *** HLSKEY FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-280930- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006 ...HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...MANDATORY EVACUATION OF VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS... ...NEW INFORMATION... TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD SLOWLY AND DECREASE IN INTENSITY. AT 1100 PM IT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.7 WEST...AND HAD MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.7 WEST...ABOUT 615 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST. TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION WAS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL MOVE AWAY FROM HAITI TONIGHT...AND BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA MONDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 50 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ERNESTO COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE IT REACHES EASTERN CUBA TOMORROW MORNING. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 1004 MB...OR 29.65 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER WILL BE ACTIVATED AT 600 AM MONDAY. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ORDERED A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF ALL VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS. TRAVEL TRAILERS AND RECREATIONAL VEHICLES SHOULD LEAVE THE KEYS IMMEDIATELY. THE EVACUATION OF SPECIAL-NEEDS RESIDENTS IS TO BEGIN AT 600 AM MONDAY. AT 1000 AM THE EVACUATION OF ALL MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS WILL GO IN EFFECT. THE 18-MILE STRETCH IS CLOSED TONIGHT FOR PREPARATION...AND WILL OPEN AT 600 AM MONDAY. MEANWHILE TRAFFIC IS DIRECTED TO CARD SOUND ROAD...WHERE TOLLS HAVE BEEN LIFTED. THE SHELTER AT F-I-U WILL OPEN AT 1000 AM MONDAY. JUST FOLLOW THE SIGNS. KEY WEST AIRPORT WILL CONTINUE OPERATIONS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ALL COUNTY AND STATE PARKS ARE CLOSED. ...WINDS... WINDS WILL REMAIN SAFE FOR TRAVEL FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY REACH THE KEYS MIDDAY TUESDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MAY FOLLOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... WE ESTIMATE THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN KEY WEST AT 58 PERCENT...AND 60 PERCENT IN MARATHON. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IN KEY WEST IS 12 PERCENT...AND 13 PERCENT IN MARATHON. ...MARINE... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT STARTING LATE MONDAY. EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT...GRADUALLY WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS MONDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY REACH THE STRAITS TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ...NEXT UPDATE... WE WILL ISSUE OUR NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT AROUND 530 AM...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. REMEMBER TO VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ DFM/MR/AG ** WTJP31 RJTD 280300 *** WARNING 280300. WARNING VALID 290300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0612 IOKE (0612) 920 HPA AT 16.5N 177.1E SOUTHSOUTHWEST OF MIDWAYS MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 290300UTC AT 16.4N 173.9E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 280300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 280300UTC 16.5N 177.1E GOOD MOVE W 10KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 50KT 90NM 30KT 200NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 290300UTC 16.4N 173.9E 80NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 45HF 300000UTC 16.6N 170.7E 150NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 69HF 310000UTC 17.5N 167.0E 220NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT = ** WTNT80 EGRR 280459 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 28.08.2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY ANALYSED POSITION : 31.9N 48.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 28.08.2006 31.9N 48.7W WEAK 12UTC 28.08.2006 EXTRA TROPICAL TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ANALYSED POSITION : 18.1N 74.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 28.08.2006 18.1N 74.1W MODERATE 12UTC 28.08.2006 19.4N 76.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.08.2006 20.4N 77.7W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 29.08.2006 21.2N 79.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.08.2006 24.0N 80.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 30.08.2006 25.8N 81.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 31.08.2006 27.9N 80.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 31.08.2006 30.7N 78.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.09.2006 33.2N 77.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 12.9N 98.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 28.08.2006 12.9N 98.2W WEAK 00UTC 29.08.2006 13.6N 98.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.08.2006 14.1N 99.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.08.2006 14.4N 98.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 30.08.2006 14.5N 100.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 31.08.2006 14.8N 100.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 31.08.2006 15.3N 100.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 01.09.2006 15.9N 101.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.09.2006 16.0N 101.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.09.2006 16.2N 102.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.09.2006 16.3N 103.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.09.2006 16.6N 104.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 280459