** WTCA45 TJSJ 271806 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN HURACAN ERNESTO ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 12A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL052006 200 PM EDT DOMINGO 27 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...ERNESTO MOVIENDOSE CERCA DE LA PENINSULA SUROESTE DE HAITI...SE PUEDE HABER DEBILITADO PERO TRAYENDO LLUVIAS TORRENCIALES A HAITI Y LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA... CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...Y CAMAGUEY.UN AVISO DE HURACAN CONTINUA EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA SUR DE HAITI DESDE EL BORDE ENTRE HAITI Y LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA HACIA EL OESTE HASTA LA ESQUINA SUROESTE DE HAITI. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES SE PUEDEN ESPERAR DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN DE SER COMPLETADOS. SE RECOMIENDA UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA SUR DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA DESDE BARAHONA HASTA LA FRONTERA ENTRE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA Y HAITI. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO...EN ESTE CASO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 12 A 24 HORAS. PERMANECEN EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA JAMAICA. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. PUEDE REQUERIRSE UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL O HURACAN PARA PARTES DE LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA MAS TARDE HOY. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL AREA EN EL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE... CUBA...EL NORESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DE MEXICO...LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA...Y EL SURESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO...DEBEN ESTAR ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ERNESTO. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA A SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 200 PM EDT...1800Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN ERNESTO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 17.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 73.9 OESTE O COMO A 105 MILLAS...165 KILOMETROS...AL SUROESTE DE PUERTO PRINCIPE HAITI Y COMO 165 MILLAS...330 KILOMETROS...AL SUR-SURESTE DE GUANTANAMO CUBA. ERNESTO SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH... 15 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...SE ESPERA QUE EL CENTRO DE ERNESTO PASE MUY CERCA DEL EXTREMO SUROESTE DE HAITI ESTA TARDE O TEMPRANO EN EL ANOCHECER...Y QUE ESTE CERCA DE LA COSTA SURESTE DE CUBA EN LA MANANA DEL LUNES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 75 MPH...120 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. REPORTES DEL AVION CAZA HURACANES INDICAN QUE ERNESTO PUEDE HABERSE DEBILITADO POR DEBAJO DE FUERZA DE HURACAN. NO SE ESPERA INTENSIFICACION HASTA QUE EL CENTRO SE MUEVA LEJOS DE LAS MONTANAS DE LA PENINSULA DE HAITI. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA UNAS 15 MILLAS...DEL CENTRO...TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 90 MILLAS...150 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1002 MILIBARAS...29.59 PULGADAS. SE ESPERAN MAREAS DE HASTA 3 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA EN JAMAICA Y EL SUROESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE HAITI A MEDIDA QUE SE ACERCA EL CENTRO DE ERNESTO. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 6 A 12 PULGADAS...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 20 PULGADAS...SE ESPERAN SOBRE HAITI Y LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA. ESTAS LLUVIAS PUDIERAN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS PELIGROSAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 8 PULGADAS...SE ESPERAN A TRAVES DE PARTES DE JAMAICA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 200 PM EDT...17.8 NORTE...73.9 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...75 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1002 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 PM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR PASCH ** WTPQ20 BABJ 271800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST SUPER TY IOKE 0612 (0612) INITIAL TIME 271800 UTC 00HR 16.9N 178.7E 920HPA 60M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 250KM P12HR WSW 20KM/H P+24HR 16.1N 174.8E 920HPA 60M/S P+48HR 16.4N 170.8E 910HPA 65M/S P+72HR 17.7N 167.1E 910HPA 65M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 271800 *** WARNING 271800. WARNING VALID 281800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0612 IOKE (0612) 920 HPA AT 16.9N 178.6E SOUTH OF MIDWAYS MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 140 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 281800UTC AT 16.4N 175.4E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 291800UTC AT 16.4N 171.7E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 301800UTC AT 17.3N 168.1E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 271800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 271800UTC 16.9N 178.6E GOOD MOVE WSW 09KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 50KT 90NM 30KT 200NM NORTH 140NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 281800UTC 16.4N 175.4E 80NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 48HF 291800UTC 16.4N 171.7E 150NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 72HF 301800UTC 17.3N 168.1E 220NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT = ** WTUS82 KKEY 271846 *** HLSKEY FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-272130- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 230 PM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006 ...MANDATORY EVACUATION OF ALL VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS BEGINNING 100 PM TODAY... ...NO HURRICANE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... THERE ARE NO HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR ANY PORTION OF THE KEYS AT THIS TIME...SINCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WATCHES ARE ISSUED WHEN TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 200 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.9 WEST...OR ABOUT 680 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST. HURRICANE ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL PASS VERY NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND BE NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA MONDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT ERNESTO MAY HAVE WEAKENED BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH...AND IF THIS IS CONFIRMED THE SYSTEM WILL BE DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM ON THE NEXT ADVISORY. STRENGTHENING IS NOT LIKELY UNTIL THE CENTER MOVES AWAY FROM THE MOUNTAINOUS SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 1002 MB...OR 29.59 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ORDERED A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF ALL VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS BEGINNING AT 100 PM THIS AFTERNOON. A LOCAL STATE OF EMERGENCY HAS BEEN DECLARED BY MONROE COUNTY AT NOON TODAY. THE EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER WILL BE ACTIVATED AT LEVEL ONE AT 600 AM MONDAY. ALL COUNTY AND STATE PARKS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSE THIS AFTERNOON. AT 600 AM MONDAY...AN EVACUATION FOR ALL SPECIAL NEEDS RESIDENTS WILL GO IN EFFECT. AT 1000 AM MONDAY...AN EVACUATION FOR ALL MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS WILL GO IN EFFECT. TOLLS ARE BEING LIFTED ON CARD SOUND ROAD THIS AFTERNOON. THE MONROE COUNTY SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT 1000 AM MONDAY. ...WINDS... WINDS WILL REMAIN SAFE FOR TRAVEL FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE KEYS POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE ERNESTO LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 530 PM EDT. $$ LK/APA/KBK ** WTPN31 PGTW 272100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. SUPER TYPHOON 01C (IOKE) WARNING NR 032 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 271800Z --- NEAR 16.9N 178.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.9N 178.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 16.4N 176.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 16.4N 174.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 16.6N 173.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 17.2N 171.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 18.7N 167.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 21.8N 163.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 25.8N 158.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT --- REMARKS: 272100Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 178.1E. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 01C, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 710 NM EAST OF WAKE ISLAND HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 48 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z, 280900Z, 281500Z AND 282100Z.// ** WTNT25 KNHC 272032 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 2100 UTC SUN AUG 27 2006 AT 5 PM...2100 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. ADDITIONAL HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA... GRANMA... HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA... THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...SOUTHERN FLORIDA... AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 74.5W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 100SE 20SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 225SE 50SW 80NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 74.5W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 74.0W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.1N 75.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 15SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 20.7N 77.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 22.1N 79.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 23.5N 80.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 26.5N 82.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 30.0N 82.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 34.0N 79.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 74.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTNT34 KNHC 272033 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 500 PM AST SUN AUG 27 2006 ...DEBBY LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS... AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.6 WEST OR ABOUT 1300 MILES...2095 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 17 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.88 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...31.5 N...48.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB. THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH ** WTNT24 KNHC 272033 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 2100 UTC SUN AUG 27 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 48.6W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 25SW 25NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 48.6W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 48.9W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 33.8N 47.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.5N 48.6W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH ** WTNT44 KNHC 272033 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 500 PM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006 DEBBY IS LOOKING RATHER ELONGATED THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUES TO GENERATE LIMITED AND INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 010/15. DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS IT COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF PERSISTENT ORGANIZED CONVECTION...DEBBY IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON DEBBY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/2100Z 31.5N 48.6W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 12HR VT 28/0600Z 33.8N 47.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 28/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH ** WTNT35 KNHC 272035 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 500 PM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006 ...ERNESTO WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM BUT STILL BRINGING TORRENTIAL RAINS TO HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... AT 5 PM...2100 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. ADDITIONAL HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA... GRANMA... HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA... THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...SOUTHERN FLORIDA... AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.5 WEST. THIS POSITION IS VERY NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI...ABOUT 150 MILES...240 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 160 MILES...255 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL MOVE AWAY FROM SOUTHWESTERN HAITI TONIGHT...AND BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA MONDAY MORNING. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AFTER IT MOVES AWAY FROM SOUTHWESTERN HAITI AND IT COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE IT REACHES THE SOUTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA TOMORROW MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM FROM THE CENTER. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. TIDES OF UP TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI. TIDES OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH LARGE BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED ON THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND PORTIONS OF CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF JAMAICA. REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...18.0 N...74.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTNT25 KNHC 272036 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 2100 UTC SUN AUG 27 2006 ...CORRECTED CENTRAL PRESSURE TO 1004 MB... AT 5 PM...2100 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. ADDITIONAL HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA... GRANMA... HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA... THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...SOUTHERN FLORIDA... AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 74.5W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 100SE 20SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 225SE 50SW 80NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 74.5W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 74.0W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.1N 75.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 15SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 20.7N 77.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 22.1N 79.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 23.5N 80.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 26.5N 82.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 30.0N 82.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 34.0N 79.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 74.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTNT85 KNHC 272037 *** TCVAT5 ERNESTO WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 500 PM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006 .TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FLC087-280300- /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.A.1005.060827T2100Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ GMZ032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-280300- /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.A.1005.060827T2100Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...KEY... ** WTNT45 KNHC 272040 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 500 PM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006 APPARENTLY...THE HIGHLY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI HAS DISRUPTED THE CIRCULATION OF ERNESTO. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED...THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO ABOUT 1004 MB...AND THE HIGHEST OBSERVED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 42 KT. IT IS PRESUMED THAT STRONGER WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE VERY NEAR THE COASTLINE OF HAITI. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET...PERHAPS GENEROUSLY...AT 50 KT. SINCE ERNESTO WILL BE MOVING OVER THE WATERS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...THERE IS A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SYSTEM TO REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS PRIOR TO CROSSING THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA TOMORROW MORNING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS ERNESTO WEAKENING AGAIN AS IT MOVES OVER A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE CUBAN LAND MASS AND THEN RESTRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. BECAUSE IT IS NOT CERTAIN HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL DISRUPTION OF THE CIRCULATION WILL OCCUR DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAND DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THERE IS MORE THAN THE USUAL AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS WIND SPEED FORECAST. ALTHOUGH THE ILL-DEFINED INNER CORE HAS MADE CENTER FIXING RATHER DIFFICULT...THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE A SLIGHTLY SLOWER 310/7. THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS A TROUGH DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST IN 3 TO 5 DAYS. TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUED MOSTLY NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...THE AFOREMENTIONED CHANGES IN THE STEERING PATTERN ARE LIKELY TO INDUCE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ABOUT THE SAME AS THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THIS IS BETWEEN THE GFDL AND U.K. MET OFFICE TRACKS TO THE WEST...AND THE NOGAPS AND GFS TRACKS TO THE EAST. THE GFS HAS SHIFTED EAST FROM THE EARLIER RUN AND THIS MODEL HAS NOT BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN THUS FAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS...MAINLY OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE USUALLY RELIABLE GFDL MODEL. THIS NHC FORECAST IS ALSO VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST FSU SUPERENSEMBLE TRACK. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADDITIONAL HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/2100Z 18.0N 74.5W 50 KT 12HR VT 28/0600Z 19.1N 75.5W 60 KT 24HR VT 28/1800Z 20.7N 77.2W 65 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 29/0600Z 22.1N 79.1W 60 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 29/1800Z 23.5N 80.8W 65 KT 72HR VT 30/1800Z 26.5N 82.5W 80 KT 96HR VT 31/1800Z 30.0N 82.0W 60 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 01/1800Z 34.0N 79.0W 50 KT...INLAND $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTCA45 TJSJ 272056 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN HURACAN ERNESTO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 13 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL052006 500 PM EDT DOMINGO 27 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...ERNESTO SE DEBILITA A TORMENTA TROPICAL PERO SIGUE TRAYENDO LLUVIAS TORRENCIALES A HAITI Y LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA... A LAS 5 PM...2100 UTC...SE EMITIO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA TODOS LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA DESDE OCENA REEF HASTA DRY TORTUGAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. VIGILANCIAS ADICIONALES DE HURACAN PUDIERAN SER REQUERIDAS PARA PORCIONES DE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA ESTA NOCHE. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA EL SUROESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE HAITI DESDE LA FRONTERA ENTRE HAITI Y LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA AL OESTE HACIA EL SUROESTE DE HAITI. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...Y CAMAGUEY. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE PUEDEN ESPERAR CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN DE SER COMPLETADOS. SE RECOMIENDA UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA SUR DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA DESDE BARAHONA HASTA LA FRONTERA ENTRE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA Y HAITI. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO...EN ESTE CASO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 12 A 24 HORAS. PERMANECEN EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA JAMAICA. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. PUEDE REQUERIRSE UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL O HURACAN PARA PARTES DE LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA MAS TARDE HOY. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL AREA EN EL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE... CUBA...EL NORESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DE MEXICO...LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA...Y EL SURESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO...DEBEN ESTAR ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ERNESTO. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA A SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 500 PM EDT...2100Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN ERNESTO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 18.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 74.5 OESTE ESTA POSICION ESTA BIEN CERCA DE LA PARTE SUROESTE DE HAITI...CERCA DE 150 MILLAS...240 KILOMETROS...OESTE SUROESTE DE PUERTO PRINCIPE Y CERCA DE 160 MILLAS...255 KILOMETROS...AL SUR SURESTE DE GUANTANAMO CUBA. ERNESTO SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH... 13 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...SE ESPERA QUE EL CENTRO DE ERNESTO SE ALEJE DEL EXTREMO SUROESTE DE HAITI ESTA NOCHE...Y QUE ESTE CERCA DE LA COSTA SURESTE DE CUBA EN LA MANANA DEL LUNES. REPORTES DESDE EL AVION CAZA HURACANES INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 60 MPH...95 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA QUE ERNESTO SE FORTALEZCA DESPUES DE QUE SE ALEJE DEL SUROESTE DE HAITI Y PUDIERA VOLVER A CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN ANTES DE QUE ALCANZE LA COSTA SUR DEL ESTE DE CUBA MANANA EN LA MANANA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 115 MILLAS...185 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. RECIENTEMENTE...UN AVION CAZA HURACANES REPORTO UNA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1004 MILIBARAS...29.65 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA OLEAJE DE HASTA 3 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA EN JAMAICA Y EL SUROESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE HAITI. SE ESPERA OLEAJE DE 4 A 6 PIES SOBRE LO NORMAL JUNTO CON OLAS GRANDES EN LA COSTA SUR DEL ESTE DE CUBA. SE ESPERAN CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 6 A 12 PULGADAS...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 20 PULGADAS...SOBRE HAITI Y LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA Y PORCIONES DE CUBA. ESTAS LLUVIAS PUDIERAN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS PELIGROSAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO. SE ESPERAN CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 8 PULGADAS...A TRAVES DE PARTES DE JAMAICA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 PM EDT...18.0 NORTE...74.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...60 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1004 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 800 PM EDT SEGUIDA POR UNA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 PM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR PASCH ** WTUS82 KKEY 272113 *** HLSKEY FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-280030- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 512 PM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006 ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...MANDATORY EVACUATION OF ALL VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS IN EFFECT... ...NEW INFORMATION... WATCHES/WARNINGS HAVE BEEN UPDATED. STORM INFORMATION HAS BEEN UPDATED. WINDS UPDATED. PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS INCLUDED. MARINE INCLUDED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND ALL SURROUNDING WATERS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.5 WEST...OR ABOUT 625 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MARATHON...OR 650 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST. TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL MOVE AWAY FROM SOUTHWESTERN HAITI TONIGHT...AND BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA MONDAY MORNING. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AFTER IT MOVES AWAY FROM SOUTHWESTERN HAITI...AND IT COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE IT REACHES THE SOUTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA TOMORROW MORNING. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 1004 MB...OR 29.65 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ORDERED A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF ALL VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS. ALL TRAVEL TRAILERS AND RECREATIONAL VEHICLES MUST LEAVE THE KEYS IMMEDIATELY. A LOCAL STATE OF EMERGENCY HAS BEEN DECLARED BY MONROE COUNTY. THE EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER WILL BE ACTIVATED AT LEVEL ONE AT 600 AM MONDAY. ALL COUNTY AND STATE PARKS ARE CLOSED. THE EVACUATION OF SPECIAL NEEDS RESIDENTS TO THE MONROE COUNTY SHELTER AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY IS TO BEGIN AT 600 AM MONDAY. AT 1000 AM MONDAY...AN EVACUATION FOR ALL MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS WILL GO IN EFFECT. THE 18 MILE STRETCH WILL CLOSE TONIGHT AT 800 PM UNTIL 600 AM MONDAY...AND TRAFFIC WILL BE DIVERTED TO CARD SOUND ROAD. TOLLS HAVE BEEN LIFTED ON CARD SOUND ROAD. THE MONROE COUNTY SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT 1000 AM MONDAY. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT SHOULD REMAIN OPERATIONAL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ...WINDS... WINDS WILL REMAIN SAFE FOR TRAVEL FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE KEYS POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS MIDDAY TUESDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN KEY WEST IS 59 PERCENT...AND 61 PERCENT IN MARATHON. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IN KEY WEST IS 12 PERCENT...AND 13 PERCENT IN MARATHON. ...MARINE... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT STARTING LATE MONDAY. EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT...WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS MONDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT MONDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS REACHING THE FLORIDA STRAITS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE APPROACH OF ERNESTO. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 830 PM EDT...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. VISIT OUR KEY WEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ LK/MR/MS ** WTPQ31 PGUM 272124 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN SUPER TYPHOON IOKE (01C) ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 730 AM GUAM LST MON AUG 28 2006 ...SUPER TYPHOON IOKE CONTINUES MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 7 AM GUAM LST..2100Z..THE CENTER OF SUPER TYPHOON IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 178.1 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 775 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WAKE 815 MILES NORTHEAST OF MAJURO 690 MILES NORTHEAST OF UTIRIK AND 1100 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ENEWETAK. SUPER TYPHOON IOKE IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 8 MPH. IOKE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A SLIGHT TURN TO THE WEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 160 MPH. SUPER TYPHOON IOKE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN VERY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 7 AM POSITION...16.8 DEGREES NORTH AND 178.1 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 8 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 160 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 PM GUAM LST. $$ STANKO ** WTJP31 RJTD 272100 *** WARNING 272100. WARNING VALID 282100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0612 IOKE (0612) 920 HPA AT 16.7N 178.2E SOUTH OF MIDWAYS MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 282100UTC AT 16.4N 175.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 272100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 272100UTC 16.7N 178.2E GOOD MOVE WSW 10KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 50KT 90NM 30KT 200NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 282100UTC 16.4N 175.0E 80NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 45HF 291800UTC 16.4N 171.7E 150NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 69HF 301800UTC 17.3N 168.1E 220NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT = ** WTPN21 PHNC 272300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.5N 94.0W TO 12.9N 98.0W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM- AGERY AT 271745Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 94.2W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 11.6N 94.2W, APPROXIMATELY 275 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF SALINA CRUZ, MEXICO, HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 271956Z AMSU-B PASS SHOW CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVOR- ABLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFCANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 282300Z.// ** WTUS82 KKEY 272327 CCA *** HLSKEY FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-280030- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 715 PM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006 CORRECTED FOR NEW INFORMATION SECTION ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...MANDATORY EVACUATION OF ALL VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS IN EFFECT... ...NEW INFORMATION... THE LATEST FORECAST ON ERNESTO HAS PROMPTED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE STRETCH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND ALL SURROUNDING WATERS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.5 WEST...OR ABOUT 625 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MARATHON...OR 650 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST. TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL MOVE AWAY FROM SOUTHWESTERN HAITI TONIGHT...AND BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA MONDAY MORNING. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AFTER IT MOVES AWAY FROM SOUTHWESTERN HAITI...AND IT COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE IT REACHES THE SOUTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA TOMORROW MORNING. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 1004 MB...OR 29.65 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ORDERED A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF ALL VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS. ALL TRAVEL TRAILERS AND RECREATIONAL VEHICLES MUST LEAVE THE KEYS IMMEDIATELY. A LOCAL STATE OF EMERGENCY HAS BEEN DECLARED BY MONROE COUNTY. THE EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER WILL BE ACTIVATED AT LEVEL ONE AT 600 AM MONDAY. ALL COUNTY AND STATE PARKS ARE CLOSED. THE EVACUATION OF SPECIAL NEEDS RESIDENTS TO THE MONROE COUNTY SHELTER AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY IS TO BEGIN AT 600 AM MONDAY. AT 1000 AM MONDAY...AN EVACUATION FOR ALL MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS WILL GO IN EFFECT. THE 18 MILE STRETCH WILL CLOSE TONIGHT AT 800 PM UNTIL 600 AM MONDAY...AND TRAFFIC WILL BE DIVERTED TO CARD SOUND ROAD. TOLLS HAVE BEEN LIFTED ON CARD SOUND ROAD. THE MONROE COUNTY SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT 1000 AM MONDAY. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT SHOULD REMAIN OPERATIONAL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ...WINDS... WINDS WILL REMAIN SAFE FOR TRAVEL FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE KEYS POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS MIDDAY TUESDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN KEY WEST IS 59 PERCENT...AND 61 PERCENT IN MARATHON. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IN KEY WEST IS 12 PERCENT...AND 13 PERCENT IN MARATHON. ...MARINE... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT STARTING LATE MONDAY. EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT...WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS MONDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT MONDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS REACHING THE FLORIDA STRAITS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE APPROACH OF ERNESTO. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 830 PM EDT...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. VISIT OUR KEY WEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ LK/MR/MS ** WTNT35 KNHC 272359 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 800 PM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006 ...ERNESTO WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE BUT TORRENTIAL RAINS CONTINUE... AT 8 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS DOWNGRADED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC...AND THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR GRAND CAYMAN HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS... FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. ADDITIONAL HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER TONIGHT. WATCHES MAY ALSO BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL OR NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATER TONIGHT. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA... GRANMA... HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA... THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...SOUTHERN FLORIDA... AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS RE-LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.4 WEST. THIS POSITION IS VERY NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI...AND ABOUT 140 MILES...225 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...12 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL MOVE AWAY FROM SOUTHWESTERN HAITI TONIGHT...AND BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA MONDAY MORNING. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AFTER IT MOVES AWAY FROM SOUTHWESTERN HAITI AND IT COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE IT REACHES THE SOUTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA TOMORROW MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. TIDES OF UP TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI. TIDES OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH LARGE BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED ON THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND PORTIONS OF CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF JAMAICA. REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...18.2 N...74.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN