** WTSR20 WSSS 271200 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTSR20 WSSS 270600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 271200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST SUPER TY 0612 (0612) INITIAL TIME 271200 UTC 00HR 17.3N 179.6E 930HPA 55M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR WSW 15KM/H P+24HR 16.7N 176.6E 930HPA 55M/S P+48HR 16.8N 172.9E 920HPA 60M/S P+72HR 18.1N 169.3E 920HPA 60M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 271200 *** WARNING 271200. WARNING VALID 281200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0612 IOKE (0612) 920 HPA AT 17.2N 179.5E SOUTH OF MIDWAYS MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 140 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 281200UTC AT 16.6N 176.5E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 291200UTC AT 16.4N 173.4E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 301200UTC AT 17.4N 170.6E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 271200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 271200UTC 17.2N 179.5E GOOD MOVE WSW SLOWLY PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 50KT 90NM 30KT 200NM NORTH 140NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 281200UTC 16.6N 176.5E 80NM 70% MOVE WSW 07KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 48HF 291200UTC 16.4N 173.4E 150NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 72HF 301200UTC 17.4N 170.6E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 271200 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST SUPER TY IOKE 0612 (0612) INITIAL TIME 271200 UTC 00HR 17.3N 179.6E 930HPA 55M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR WSW 15KM/H P+24HR 16.7N 176.6E 930HPA 55M/S P+48HR 16.8N 172.9E 920HPA 60M/S P+72HR 18.1N 169.3E 920HPA 60M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 271200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST SUPER TY S"NDC{3F 0612 (0612) INITIAL TIME 271200 UTC 00HR 17.3N 179.6E 930HPA 55M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR WSW 15KM/H P+24HR 16.7N 176.6E 930HPA 55M/S P+48HR 16.8N 172.9E 920HPA 60M/S P+72HR 18.1N 169.3E 920HPA 60M/S= ** WTPN31 PGTW 271500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 01C (IOKE) WARNING NR 031 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 271200Z --- NEAR 17.2N 179.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 179.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 16.7N 177.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 16.5N 175.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 16.5N 173.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 17.1N 171.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 19.2N 168.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z --- 22.4N 165.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 26.3N 161.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT --- REMARKS: 271500Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 178.8E. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 01C, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 735 NM EAST OF WAKE ISLAND HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 48 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z AND 281500Z.// ** WTNT35 KNHC 271435 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006 ...ERNESTO CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI... AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS LATER TODAY. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA... THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA KEYS...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.7 WEST OR ABOUT 115 MILES... 185 KM...SOUTHWEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 205 MILES...330 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PASS VERY NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING ...AND BE NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA MONDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ERNESTO IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND ERNESTO COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST OF CUBA. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. TIDES OF UP TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI. TIDES OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH LARGE BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED ON THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND PORTIONS OF CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF JAMAICA. REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...17.6 N...73.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTNT25 KNHC 271435 *** TCMAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1500 UTC SUN AUG 27 2006 AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS LATER TODAY. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA... THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA KEYS...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 73.7W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 10SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 20SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 225SE 50SW 80NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 73.7W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 73.4W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.6N 74.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 15SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 20.0N 76.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 21.5N 78.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 23.1N 80.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 25.5N 82.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 28.0N 82.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 31.0N 81.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 73.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTPZ25 KNHC 271435 *** TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006 1500 UTC SUN AUG 27 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 120.9W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 125SE 175SW 200NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 120.9W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 120.5W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 23.8N 122.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 23.9N 123.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.6N 120.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH ** WTNT24 KNHC 271437 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 1500 UTC SUN AUG 27 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 49.2W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 25SW 25NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 49.2W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 49.2W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 32.0N 48.7W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 35.5N 46.7W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.6N 49.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH ** WTCA45 TJSJ 271455 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN HURACAN ERNESTO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 12 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 AM EDT DOMINGO 27 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...ERNESTO CONTINUA MOVIENDOSE AL NOROESTE HACIA EL SUROESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE HAITI... A LAS 11 AM EDT...1500Z...EL GOBIERNO DE CUBA HA EMITIDO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...Y CAMAGUEY. UN AVISO DE HURACAN CONTINUA EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA SUR DE HAITI DESDE EL BORDE ENTRE HAITI Y LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA HACIA EL OESTE HASTA LA ESQUINA SUROESTE DE HAITI. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES SE PUEDEN ESPERAR DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN DE SER COMPLETADOS. SE RECOMIENDA UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA SUR DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA DESDE BARAHONA HASTA LA FRONTERA ENTRE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA Y HAITI. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO...EN ESTE CASO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 12 A 24 HORAS. PERMANECEN EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA JAMAICA. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. PUEDE REQUERIRSE UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL O HURACAN PARA PARTES DE LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA MAS TARDE HOY. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL AREA EN EL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE... CUBA...EL NORESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DE MEXICO...LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA...Y EL SURESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO...DEBEN ESTAR ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ERNESTO. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA A SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN ERNESTO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 17.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 73.7 OESTE O COMO A 115 MILLAS...185 KILOMETROS...AL SUROESTE DE PUERTO PRINCIPE HAITI Y COMO 205 MILLAS...330 KILOMETROS...AL SUR-SURESTE DE GUANTANAMO CUBA. ERNESTO SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH... 15 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...SE ESPERA QUE EL CENTRO DE ERNESTO PASE MUY CERCA DEL EXTREMO SUROESTE DE HAITI ESTA TARDE O TEMPRANO EN EL ANOCHECER...Y QUE ESTE CERCA DE LA COSTA SURESTE DE CUBA EN LA MANANA DEL LUNES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 75 MPH...120 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y ERNESTO PUDIERA CONVERTIRSE EN UN HURACAN CATEGORIA 2 ANTES DE LLEGAR A LA COSTA DE CUBA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA UNAS 15 MILLAS...DEL CENTRO...TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 90 MILLAS...150 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 997 MILIBARAS...29.44 PULGADAS. SE ESPERAN MAREAS DE HASTA 3 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA EN JAMAICA Y EL SUROESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE HAITI A MEDIDA QUE SE ACERCA EL CENTRO DE ERNESTO. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 6 A 12 PULGADAS...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 20 PULGADAS...SE ESPERAN SOBRE HAITI Y LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA. ESTAS LLUVIAS PUDIERAN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS PELIGROSAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 8 PULGADAS...SE ESPERAN A TRAVES DE PARTES DE JAMAICA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 AM EDT...17.6 NORTE...73.7 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...75 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...997 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 200 PM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 500 PM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR PASCH ** WTPZ45 KNHC 271457 *** TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006 800 AM PDT SUN AUG 27 2006 ILEANA HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR CLOSE TO 18 HOURS... AND HAS BECOME A DIFFUSE SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 285/7. DISSIPATING ILEANA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE IN A GENERALLY WESTWARD DIRECTION WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN DISSIPATE. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON ILEANA. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH...UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIAHSFEP2 AND WMO HEADER FZPN03 KNHC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/1500Z 23.6N 120.9W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 12HR VT 28/0000Z 23.8N 122.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 28/1200Z 23.9N 123.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH ** WTNT34 KNHC 271458 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 1100 AM AST SUN AUG 27 2006 ...DEBBY MOVING NORTHWARD OVER OPEN WATERS... AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.2 WEST OR ABOUT 1395 MILES...2245 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 13 MPH AND A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND DEBBY COULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS THIS AFTERNOON. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.88 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...29.6 N...49.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH ** WTNT44 KNHC 271459 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006 A 0912 UTC QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED A FEW UNCONTAMINATED 25 KT VECTORS ABOUT 110 NMI NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER WITHIN THE SHALLOW CONVECTION. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HOLDS AT 25 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...AND DEBBY BECOMES A NON-CONVECTIVE LOW...THE LAST ADVISORY COULD BE WRITTEN THIS AFTERNOON. LITTLE INTENSITY CHANGE IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW IN 24 HOURS. THE CURRENT MOTION IS MORE TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING...360/11. THE AMPLIFYING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SHOULD RESULT IN AN ACCELERATED NORTHEASTWARD TURN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. DEBBY SHOULD COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY 24 HOURS...AND BECOME ABSORBED BY THE FRONT BY 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON THE GUNA CONSENSUS WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND UKMET SOLUTIONS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/1500Z 29.6N 49.2W 25 KT 12HR VT 28/0000Z 32.0N 48.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 28/1200Z 35.5N 46.7W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 29/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH ** WTNT45 KNHC 271459 *** TCDAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006 ERNESTO'S CLOUD PATTERN IS STILL A BIT RAGGED-LOOKING BUT THERE ARE SOME BANDING FEATURES OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS EXPANDING OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION. THE LAST AIRCRAFT-EXTRAPOLATED CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 997 MB...SUGGESTING THAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE OR NO STRENGTHENING OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE SHIFTING WESTWARD TOWARD YUCATAN...THE SHEAR OVER ERNESTO IS QUICKLY DIMINISHING. THUS THE PRIMARY CONSIDERATION IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE HOW MUCH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH LAND. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WOULD BE OVER CUBA FROM HOUR 24 TO 48 HOURS. THIS SHOULD CAUSE SOME WEAKENING AND THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST FOLLOWS THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL RATHER CLOSELY. HOWEVER...AFTER THE CENTER MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SIGNIFICANT RESTRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INTENSITY AT 96 HOURS ASSUMES SOME WEAKENING DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND. HOWEVER....ERNESTO COULD APPROACH CATEGORY 3 STATUS PRIOR TO THE PROJECTED LANDFALL IN WESTERN FLORIDA. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 310/8. A CONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS INDICATED BY MOST OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WOULD TAKE ERNESTO OVER A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF CUBA. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI IN 3-5 DAYS. THIS SHOULD CAUSE A MORE NORTHWARD HEADING LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE 0600 UTC RUNS OF THE GFS HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS RUN BUT THE 0600 UTC NOGAPS HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE RIGHT TO BE CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS IS EAST OF THE LATEST GFDL MODEL TRACK. A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AS EARLY AS 2100 UTC TODAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/1500Z 17.6N 73.7W 65 KT 12HR VT 28/0000Z 18.6N 74.9W 75 KT 24HR VT 28/1200Z 20.0N 76.5W 85 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 29/0000Z 21.5N 78.3W 75 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 29/1200Z 23.1N 80.3W 65 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 30/1200Z 25.5N 82.5W 85 KT 96HR VT 31/1200Z 28.0N 82.5W 80 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 01/1200Z 31.0N 81.0W 60 KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTPZ25 KNHC 271507 *** TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006 1500 UTC SUN AUG 27 2006 ...ADDED LAST ADVISORY STATEMENT... TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 120.9W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 125SE 175SW 200NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 120.9W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 120.5W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 23.8N 122.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 23.9N 123.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.6N 120.9W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH ** WTPN33 PHNC 271600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (ILEANA) WARNING NR 025 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 271200Z --- NEAR 23.6N 120.9W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 23.6N 120.9W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 23.8N 122.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 23.9N 123.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT --- REMARKS: 271600Z POSITION NEAR 23.7N 121.3W. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 12 FEET.// ** WTPQ20 RJTD 271500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 271500UTC 17.0N 179.2E GOOD MOVE WSW 06KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 50KT 90NM 30KT 200NM NORTH 140NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 281500UTC 16.5N 176.3E 80NM 70% MOVE WSW 07KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 45HF 291200UTC 16.4N 173.4E 150NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 69HF 301200UTC 17.4N 170.6E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 271500 *** WARNING 271500. WARNING VALID 281500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0612 IOKE (0612) 920 HPA AT 17.0N 179.2E SOUTH OF MIDWAYS MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 140 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 281500UTC AT 16.5N 176.3E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ31 PGUM 271600 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN SUPER TYPHOON IOKE (01C) ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 200 AM GUAM LST MON AUG 28 2006 ...HURRICANE IOKE CROSSES THE DATELINE AS SUPER TYPHOON IOKE... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 1 AM GUAM LST..1500Z..THE CENTER OF SUPER TYPHOON IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 178.8 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 815 MILES EAST OF WAKE 860 MILES NORTHEAST OF MAJURO AND 740 MILES NORTHEAST OF UTIRIK. SUPER TYPHOON IOKE IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 12 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 160 MPH. SUPER TYPHOON IOKE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS INTENSITY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 1 AM POSITION...17.1 DEGREES NORTH AND 178.8 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 12 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 160 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 AM GUAM LST. $$ STANKO ** WTUS82 KKEY 271711 *** HLSKEY FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-271830- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 110 PM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006 ...MANDATORY EVACUATION OF ALL VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS BEGINNING 100 PM TODAY... ...NO HURRICANE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... THERE ARE NO HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR ANY PORTION OF THE KEYS AT THIS TIME...SINCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WATCHES ARE ISSUED WHEN TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.7 WEST...OR ABOUT 690 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST. HURRICANE ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ERNESTO IS A CATEGORY ONE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND ERNESTO COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST OF CUBA. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 997 MB...OR 29.44 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ORDERED A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF ALL VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS BEGINNING AT 100 PM THIS AFTERNOON. A LOCAL STATE OF EMERGENCY HAS BEEN DECLARED BY MONROE COUNTY AT NOON TODAY. THE EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER WILL BE ACTIVATED AT LEVEL ONE AT 600 AM MONDAY. ALL COUNTY AND STATE PARKS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSE THIS AFTERNOON. AT 600 AM MONDAY...AN EVACUATION FOR ALL SPECIAL NEEDS RESIDENTS WILL GO IN EFFECT. AT 1000 AM MONDAY...AN EVACUATION FOR ALL MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS WILL GO IN EFFECT. TOLLS ARE BEING LIFTED ON CARD SOUND ROAD THIS AFTERNOON. THE MONROE COUNTY SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT 1000 AM MONDAY. ...WINDS... WINDS WILL REMAIN SAFE FOR TRAVEL FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE KEYS POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE ERNESTO LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 230 PM EDT. $$ LK/APA/KBK ** WTNT80 EGRR 271736 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 27.08.2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY ANALYSED POSITION : 28.6N 49.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 27.08.2006 28.6N 49.7W WEAK 00UTC 28.08.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE ERNESTO ANALYSED POSITION : 16.7N 73.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 27.08.2006 16.7N 73.0W STRONG 00UTC 28.08.2006 18.3N 74.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.08.2006 19.7N 76.2W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.08.2006 21.5N 78.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.08.2006 22.7N 81.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.08.2006 23.6N 82.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.08.2006 25.5N 83.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 31.08.2006 27.2N 83.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 31.08.2006 28.4N 83.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.09.2006 31.3N 81.1W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 01.09.2006 34.0N 79.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.09.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION ILEANA ANALYSED POSITION : 23.5N 120.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 27.08.2006 23.5N 120.2W WEAK 00UTC 28.08.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 271736 ** WTNT35 KNHC 271758 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 200 PM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006 ...ERNESTO MOVING NEAR THE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI...MAY HAVE WEAKENED BUT BRINGING TORRENTIAL RAINS TO HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA... RANMA... OLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS LATER TODAY. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA... THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA KEYS...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.9 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES...165 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 165 MILES...260 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL PASS VERY NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND BE NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA MONDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT ERNESTO MAY HAVE WEAKENED BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH...AND IF THIS IS CONFIRMED THE SYSTEM WILL BE DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM ON THE NEXT ADVISORY. STRENGTHENING IS NOT LIKELY UNTIL THE CENTER MOVES AWAY FROM THE MOUNTAINOUS SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. TIDES OF UP TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI. TIDES OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH LARGE BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED ON THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND PORTIONS OF CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF JAMAICA. REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...17.8 N...73.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH