** WTIN20 DEMS 270614 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 27-08-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTH AND ADJOINING CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AND PARTS OF ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 28 DEG. NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) ==== ** WTCA45 TJSJ 270629 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 10A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL052006 200 AM EDT DOMINGO 27 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...ERNESTO TORNANDOSE MEJOR ORGANIZADO AL SUR DE HAITI... ...POSIBLES LLUVIAS FUERTES SOBRE LA MAYOR PARTE DE LA ESPANOLA... SE RECOMIENDA UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA SUR DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA DESDE BARAHONA HASTA LA FRONTERA ENTRE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA Y HAITI. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO...EN ESTE CASO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 12 A 24 HORAS. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA DE TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA SUR DE HAITI DESDE LA FRONTERA ENTRE HAITI Y LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA HACIA EL OESTE HASTA EL EXTREMO SUROESTE DE HAITI. PERMANECEN EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA JAMAICA. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...Y GUANTANAMO EN EL ESTE DE CUBA. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA... GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL AREA EN EL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE... CUBA...EL NORESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DE MEXICO...LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA Y EL SUR DE LA FLORIDA...Y EL SURESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO...DEBEN ESTAR ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ERNESTO. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA A SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 200 AM EDT...0600Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 16.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 72.7 OESTE O COMO A 130 MILLAS...215 KILOMETROS...AL SUR-SUROESTE DE PUERTO PRINCIPE HAITI Y COMO 285 MILLAS...455 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE-SURESTE DE KINGSTON JAMAICA. ERNESTO SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH... 15 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...SE ESPERA QUE EL CENTRO DE ERNESTO PASE CERCA DEL OESTE DE HAITI Y JAMAICA MAS TARDE ESTA NOCHE. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS PERMANECEN EN CERCA DE 60 MPH...95 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y ERNESTO PUDIERA CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN MAS TARDE HOY. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 90 MILLAS...150 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 995 MILIBARAS...29.35 PULGADAS. SE ESPERAN MAREAS DE HASTA 3 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA EN JAMAICA Y EL SUROESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE HAITI A MEDIDA QUE SE ACERCA EL CENTRO DE ERNESTO. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 6 A 12 PULGADAS...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 20 PULGADAS...SE ESPERAN SOBRE HAITI Y LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA. ESTAS LLUVIAS PUDIERAN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS PELIGROSAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 8 PULGADAS...SE ESPERAN A TRAVES DE PARTES DE JAMAICA Y EL ESTE DE CUBA. LAS BANDAS EXTERIORES DE ERNESTO PUEDEN PRODUCIR CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 200 AM EDT...16.7 NORTE...72.7 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...60 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...995 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 AM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR STEWART ** WTJP21 RJTD 270600 *** WARNING 270600. WARNING VALID 280600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0612 IOKE (0612) FORMER HURRICANE 920 HPA AT 17.5N 180.0E SOUTH OF MIDWAYS MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST 13 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 140 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 280600UTC AT 16.8N 176.7E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 290600UTC AT 16.3N 173.4E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 300600UTC AT 17.3N 170.7E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 270600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) FORMER HR ANALYSIS PSTN 270600UTC 17.5N 180.0E FAIR MOVE WSW 13KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 50KT 90NM 30KT 200NM NORTH 140NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 280600UTC 16.8N 176.7E 80NM 70% MOVE WSW 08KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 48HF 290600UTC 16.3N 173.4E 150NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 72HF 300600UTC 17.3N 170.7E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 270600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 1 FOR TY 0612 IOKE (0612) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 270600 UTC IS FAIR. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 6.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTNT25 KNHC 270822 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 0900 UTC SUN AUG 27 2006 AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO IN EASTERN CUBA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GRANMA AND SANTIAGO DE CUBA. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS LATER TODAY. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA... THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA KEYS... AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 73.1W AT 27/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 20SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..225NE 225SE 50SW 80NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 73.1W AT 27/0900Z AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 72.8W FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 17.8N 74.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.3N 76.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 45SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 20.6N 78.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 22.1N 80.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 24.4N 83.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 26.5N 84.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 30.0N 81.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 73.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTPZ45 KNHC 270823 *** TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006 200 AM PDT SUN AUG 27 2006 ANY DEEP CONVECTION IS TOTALLY GONE WITH ONLY THE LOW-LEVEL SWIRL REMAINING. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE ALL BELOW TROPICAL STORM STATUS AND THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 30 KT. THE DEPRESSION MAY HAVE ALREADY TRANSITIONED TO REMNANT LOW STATUS BUT WE WILL KEEP ADVISORIES GOING FOR ONE MORE CYCLE. ILEANA WILL LIKELY TRANSITION INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY DUE TO CONTINUED COLD WATER INFLUENCES. THE INTENSITY FORECAST ASSUMES A SLOW SPINDOWN OF THE VORTEX. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/0900Z 23.4N 120.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 27/1800Z 23.6N 121.1W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 28/0600Z 23.7N 122.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 28/1800Z 23.7N 124.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART ** WTPZ25 KNHC 270823 *** TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006 0900 UTC SUN AUG 27 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 120.1W AT 27/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 60SE 90SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 120.1W AT 27/0900Z AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 119.8W FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 23.6N 121.1W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 23.7N 122.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 23.7N 124.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N 120.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART ** WTNT44 KNHC 270824 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 500 AM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006 THERE ARE JUST A FEW PUFFS OF CONVECTION FAR NORTH OF THE CENTER IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF DEBBY. THIS SYSTEM BARELY FITS THE DEFINITION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE SO ADVISORIES WILL BE CONTINUED SIX MORE HOURS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED AND SO IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KT. THIS SYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE AT ANY TIME WITH THE CONTINUATION OF STRONG SOUTHERLY SHEAR. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY LIKELY UNTIL THE SYSTEM BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL. THE CURRENT MOTION OF 320/11 SHOULD CHANGE TO DUE NORTH SOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS FRONT SHOULD ABSORB DEBBY IN THE 24-36 HOUR TIMEFRAME. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED LEFTWARD AT FIRST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NORTHWESTWARD INITIAL MOTION THEN COMES IN LINE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/0900Z 28.6N 49.3W 25 KT 12HR VT 27/1800Z 30.5N 49.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 28/0600Z 33.5N 48.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 28/1800Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART ** WTNT24 KNHC 270824 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 0900 UTC SUN AUG 27 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 49.3W AT 27/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 49.3W AT 27/0900Z AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 49.1W FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 30.5N 49.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 33.5N 48.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.6N 49.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART ** WTNT34 KNHC 270825 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 500 AM AST SUN AUG 27 2006 ...DEBBY BARELY A TROPICAL CYCLONE... AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.3 WEST OR ABOUT 1435 MILES...2315 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND DEBBY COULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.88 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...28.6 N...49.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART ** WTNT35 KNHC 270829 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 500 AM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006 ...ERNESTO RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING TO NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF HISPANIOLA... AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO IN EASTERN CUBA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GRANMA AND SANTIAGO DE CUBA. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS LATER TODAY. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA... THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA KEYS... AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES...195 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 255 MILES...410 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PASS VERY NEAR SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING ...AND BE NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA MONDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND ERNESTO COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE LATER THIS MORNING...AND A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST OF CUBA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. TIDES OF UP TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO APPROACHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA. THE OUTER BANDS OF ERNESTO MAY PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...17.0 N...73.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTNT25 KNHC 270830 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 0900 UTC SUN AUG 27 2006 CORRECTED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE TO 990 MB AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO IN EASTERN CUBA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GRANMA AND SANTIAGO DE CUBA. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS LATER TODAY. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA... THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA KEYS... AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 73.1W AT 27/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 20SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..225NE 225SE 50SW 80NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 73.1W AT 27/0900Z AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 72.8W FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 17.8N 74.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.3N 76.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 45SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 20.6N 78.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 22.1N 80.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 24.4N 83.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 26.5N 84.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 30.0N 81.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 73.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTPN31 PGTW 270900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/270940AUG2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 01C (IOKE) WARNING NR 030 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 270600Z --- NEAR 17.4N 179.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.4N 179.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 16.6N 178.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 16.3N 176.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 16.3N 174.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 16.6N 172.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 18.2N 169.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 21.4N 165.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 24.7N 162.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT --- REMARKS: 270900Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 179.6E. HURRICANE (HU) 01C, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 785 NM EAST OF WAKE ISLAND HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 47 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z, 272100Z, 280300Z AND 280900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10E (ILEANA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTNT35 KNHC 270838 CCA *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 11...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 500 AM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006 ...CORRECTED TO ADD DEFINITION OF A HURRICANE WARNING... ...ERNESTO RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING TO NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF HISPANIOLA... AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO IN EASTERN CUBA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GRANMA AND SANTIAGO DE CUBA. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS LATER TODAY. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA... THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA KEYS... AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES...195 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 255 MILES...410 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PASS VERY NEAR SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING ...AND BE NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA MONDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND ERNESTO COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE LATER THIS MORNING...AND A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST OF CUBA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. TIDES OF UP TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO APPROACHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA. THE OUTER BANDS OF ERNESTO MAY PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...17.0 N...73.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTCA44 TJSJ 270843 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL DEBBY ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 23 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL042006 500 AM AST DOMINGO 27 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...DEBBY UN POBRE CICLON TROPICAL... A LAS 500 AM AST...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL DEBBY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 28.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 49.3 OESTE O COMO A 1435 MILLAS...2315 KILOMETROS...AL OESTE-SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS AZORES. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NORTE HOY. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 30 MPH...45 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA POCO CAMBIO EN INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS Y DEBE PUDIERA PERDER SUS CARACTERISTICAS TROPICALES HOY. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1012 MILIBARAS...29.88 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 AM AST...28.6 NORTE...49.3 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...30 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1012 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1100 AM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR BLAKE/STEWART ** WTNT45 KNHC 270900 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 500 AM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006 BIG CHANGES IN BOTH THE INITIAL INTENSITY AND FORECAST TRACK WERE REQUIRED...UNFORTUNATELY...FOR THIS ADVISORY. LATEST RECON DATA INDICATE ERNESTO IS LIKELY UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION. AN EYE IS FORMING AND MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 78 KT WERE RECENTLY OBSERVED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...WHICH EQUALS ABOUT 62 KT SURFACE WINDS...SO ERNESTO IS VERY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE EYE IS SO SMALL...HOWEVER...THAT THE FLIGHT CREW HAVE BEEN UNABLE TO PROPERLY ASSESS THE MINIMUM SURFACE PRESSURE. THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS BECOME QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH LITTLE OR NO VERTICAL SHEAR NOTED ON THE SYSTEM NOW...AND CIRRUS OUTFLOW EXPANDING OUTWARD IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 295/08...BASED ON A 12-HOUR AVERAGE MOTION. THE CENTER HAS BEEN REFORMING CLOSER TO THE STRONG CONVECTIVE BURSTS WITH CLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS -85C. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ADDITIONAL REFORMATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE ROUND CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS COULD BRING ERNESTO OVER OR VERY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI LATER TODAY. FOR THAT REASON...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHWESTERN HAITI. NOW FOR THE REST OF THE BAD NEWS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE RIGHT OR EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT 96 AND 120 HOURS..AND NOW TAKES ERNESTO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES THAT A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL DIG EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... CAUSING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED OVER FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TO GRADUALLY ERODE EASTWARD. THE GFS AND NOGAPS MODELS APPEAR TO BE ERODING THE RIDGE TO QUICKLY AND HAVE ERNESTO OVER SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA IN 84 HOURS. THE REST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TAKES THE CYCLONE FARTHER WESTWARD OVER OR WEST OF THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS NOW AGREE ON RECURVATURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AROUND 96 HOURS...AND TAKE ERNESTO NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL OR NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA BY 120 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SIMILAR TO BUT A LITTLE WEST OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WAS AS EQUALLY DIFFICULT TO PREPARE AS THE TRACK FORECAST WAS...AND IT HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK THAT ERNESTO TAKES DUE TO LAND INTERACTION WITH HAITI AND CUBA. EXCLUDING LAND INTERACTION...THE ENVIRONMENTAL AND OCEAN CONDITIONS CURRENT AND FORECAST TO BE AFFECTING ERNESTO ARE HIGHLY CONDUCIVE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR TERM...AND FOR THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE LONGER TERM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS RAPIDLY DECREASING WHILE THE OUTFLOW IS RAPIDLY EXPANDING. IN FACT ...OUTFLOW CHANNELS HAVE NOW DEVELOPED TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF ERNESTO...WITH A THIRD CHANNEL POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TO THE WEST AND INTO AN UPPER-LOW MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD TOWARD THE YUCATAN. THIS VERY FAVORABLE LOW-SHEAR AND ENHANCED OUTFLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TO PERSIST RIGHT UP UNTIL LANDFALL ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. IF ERNESTO DOESN'T LINGER OVER CUBA FOR MORE THAN 24 HOURS...THEN MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH SEEMS LIKELY BY 96-108 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE INTENSITY MODEL FORECASTS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/0900Z 17.0N 73.1W 60 KT 12HR VT 27/1800Z 17.8N 74.5W 70 KT 24HR VT 28/0600Z 19.3N 76.3W 85 KT 36HR VT 28/1800Z 20.6N 78.1W 85 KT 48HR VT 29/0600Z 22.1N 80.2W 70 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 30/0600Z 24.4N 83.1W 80 KT 96HR VT 31/0600Z 26.5N 84.0W 100 KT 120HR VT 01/0600Z 30.0N 81.5W 70 KT...INLAND $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTPN33 PHNC 271000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/270751AUG2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (ILEANA) WARNING NR 024 DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 10E 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 270600Z --- NEAR 23.4N 120.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 23.4N 120.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 23.6N 121.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 23.7N 122.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 23.7N 124.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 271000Z POSITION NEAR 23.5N 120.4W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271600Z, 272200Z, 280400Z AND 281000Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 01C (IOKE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTNT65 KNHC 270905 *** TCUAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 504 AM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006 ...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO HAS NOW REACHED HURRICANE STRENGTH... RECENT DROPSONDE AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO HAVE INCREASED TO 75 MPH. THIS MAKES ERNESTO A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTCA45 TJSJ 270913 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 11 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL052006 500 AM EDT DOMINGO 27 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...ERNESTO INTENSIFICANDOSE RAPIDAMENTE HASTA CERCA DE INTENSIDAD DE HURACAN... ...POSIBLES LLUVIAS FUERTES E INUNDACIONES SOBRE LA MAYOR PARTE DE LA ESPANOLA... A LAS 5 AM EDT...0900Z...SE HA EMITIDO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LA COSTA SUR DE HAITI DESDE LA FRONTERA ENTRE HAITI Y LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA HACIA EL OESTE HASTA EL EXTREMO SUROESTE DE HAITI. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO...EN ESTE CASO DENTRO DE 12 A 24 HORAS. SE RECOMIENDA UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA SUR DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA DESDE BARAHONA HASTA LA FRONTERA ENTRE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA Y HAITI. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO...EN ESTE CASO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 12 A 24 HORAS. PERMANECEN EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA JAMAICA. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...Y GUANTANAMO EN EL ESTE DE CUBA. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA... GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. SE RECOMIENDA UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LAS PROVINCIAS CUBANAS DE GRANMA Y SANTIAGO DE CUBA. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. PUEDE REQUERIRSE UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA PARTES DE LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA MAS TARDE HOY. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL AREA EN EL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE... CUBA...EL NORESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DE MEXICO...LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA...Y EL SURESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO...DEBEN ESTAR ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ERNESTO. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA A SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 500 AM EDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 17.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 73.1 OESTE O COMO A 120 MILLAS...195 KILOMETROS...AL SUR-SUROESTE DE PUERTO PRINCIPE HAITI Y COMO 255 MILLAS...410 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE-SURESTE DE KINGSTON JAMAICA. ERNESTO SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH... 15 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...SE ESPERA QUE EL CENTRO DE ERNESTO PASE MUY CERCA DEL EXTREMO SUROESTE DE HAITI ESTA TARDE O TEMPRANO EN EL ANOCHECER...Y QUE ESTE CERCA DE LA COSTA SURESTE DE CUBA EN LA MANANA DEL LUNES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 70 MPH...110 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y ERNESTO PUDIERA CONVERTIRSE EN UN HURACAN CATEGORIA 1 MAS TARDE ESTA MANANA...Y EN UN HURACAN CATEGORIA 2 ANTES DE LLEGAR A LA COSTA DE CUBA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 90 MILLAS...150 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 990 MILIBARAS...29.23 PULGADAS. SE ESPERAN MAREAS DE HASTA 3 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA EN JAMAICA Y EL SUROESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE HAITI A MEDIDA QUE SE ACERCA EL CENTRO DE ERNESTO. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 6 A 12 PULGADAS...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 20 PULGADAS...SE ESPERAN SOBRE HAITI Y LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA. ESTAS LLUVIAS PUDIERAN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS PELIGROSAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 8 PULGADAS...SE ESPERAN A TRAVES DE PARTES DE JAMAICA Y EL ESTE DE CUBA. LAS BANDAS EXTERIORES DE ERNESTO PUEDEN PRODUCIR CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 AM EDT...17.0 NORTE...73.1 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...70 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...990 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 800 AM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 1100 AM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR STEWART ** WTNT65 KNHC 270951 *** TCUAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 504 AM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006 ...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO HAS NOW REACHED HURRICANE STRENGTH... RECENT DROPSONDE AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO HAVE INCREASED TO 75 MPH. THIS MAKES ERNESTO A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTPQ20 RJTD 270900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 270900UTC 17.4N 179.8E GOOD MOVE WSW 10KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 50KT 90NM 30KT 200NM NORTH 140NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 280900UTC 16.7N 176.6E 80NM 70% MOVE WSW 08KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 45HF 290600UTC 16.3N 173.4E 150NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 69HF 300600UTC 17.3N 170.7E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 270900 *** WARNING 270900. WARNING VALID 280900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0612 IOKE (0612) 920 HPA AT 17.4N 179.8E SOUTH OF MIDWAYS MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 140 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 280900UTC AT 16.7N 176.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTNT35 KNHC 271159 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 800 AM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006 ...ERNESTO...NOW A HURRICANE...APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF HISPANIOLA... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO IN EASTERN CUBA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GRANMA AND SANTIAGO DE CUBA. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS LATER TODAY. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA... THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA KEYS... AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.4 WEST OR ABOUT 115 MILES...180 KM...SOUTHWEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 210 MILES...340 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR... AND A NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PASS VERY NEAR SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING ...AND BE NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA MONDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND ERNESTO COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST OF CUBA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM FROM THE CENTER. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. TIDES OF UP TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO APPROACHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA. REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...17.3 N...73.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH