** WTNT35 KNHC 270000 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 800 PM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006 ...OUTER RAINBANDS OF ERNESTO ABOUT TO MOVE OVER HISPANIOLA...VERY HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE... A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO IN EASTERN CUBA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA... THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA KEYS... AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.2 WEST OR ABOUT 145 MILES...235 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 310 MILES...455 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR ...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND NEAR JAMAICA ON SUNDAY. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND ERNESTO COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES JAMAICA AND WESTERN HAITI ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER WAS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. TIDES OF UP TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO APPROACHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ERNESTO ACROSS PORTIONS OF JAMAICA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES... WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES IN HIGHER TERRAIN...ACROSS HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. ALSO...THE OUTER BANDS OF ERNESTO MAY PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...16.5 N...72.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER KNABB/MAINELLI ** WTSR20 WSSS 261800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTCA45 TJSJ 270015 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 9A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL052006 800 PM AST SABADO 26 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...LAS BANDAS EXTERIORES DE ERNESTO A PUNTO DE MOVERSE SOBRE LA ESPANOLA...POSIBILIDAD DE LLUVIAS MUY FUERTES... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...Y GUANTANAMO EN EL ESTE DE CUBA. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS 36 HORAS. SE RECOMIENDA QUE SE EMITA UN AVISO PARA LA COSTA SUR DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA DESDE BARAHONA HASTA LA FRONTERA DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA Y HAITI. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS...FAVOR DE ESTAR ATENTOS A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 800 PM AST...0000Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 16.5 NORTE...LONGITUD 72.2 OESTE O COMO A 145 MILLAS...235 KILOMETROS...AL SUR SURESTE DE PUERTO PRINCIPE EN HAITI Y COMO 310 MILLAS...455 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE-SURESTE DE KINGSTON JAMAICA. ERNESTO SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH...22 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA EL CENTRO DE ERNESTO DEBE PASAR CERCA DE LA COSTA SUR DE LA ESPANOLA EN LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS Y ERNESTO PUDIERA ESTAR CERCA DE LA CATEGORIA DE HURACAN A MEDIDA QUE SE ACERCA A JAMAICA Y AL OESTE DE HAITI EL DOMINGO. REPORTES DESDE EL AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA FUERZA AEREA INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 60 MPH...95 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA INTENSIFICACION ADICIONAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y ERNESTO PUEDE ESTAR CERCA DE FUERZA DE HURACAN A MEDIDA QUE PASA CERCA DE JAMAICA Y EL OESTE DE HAITI EL DOMINGO. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 90 MILLAS...150 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ERA DE 997 MILIBARAS...29.44 PULGADAS. OLEAJE DE HASTA 3 PIES POR ENCIMA DE LOS NIVELES NORMALES SE PUEDEN ESPERAR EN JAMAICA A MEDIDA QUE SE ACERCA EL CENTRO DE ERNESTO. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE 12 PULGADAS...SON POSIBLES EN ASOCIACION CON ERNESTO A TRAVES DE JAMAICA....HAITI Y LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA. SON POSIBLES CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 8 A 12 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE HASTA 20 PULGADAS EN TERRENOS MAS ALTOS A TRAVES DE HAITI Y LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA. ESTAS LLUVIAS PUDIERAN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS PELIGROSAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO. ADEMAS...LAS BANDAS EXTERIORES DE ERNESTO PUEDEN PRODUCIR ENTRE 1 A 3 PULGADAS DE LLUVIA A TRAVES DE PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 800 PM AST...16.5 NORTE...72.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...60 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...997 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR KNABB/MAINELLI ** WTPA22 PHFO 270240 *** TCMCP2 HURRICANE IOKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 0300 UTC SUN AUG 27 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 179.3W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 251 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 920 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT. 64 KT....... 70NE 45SE 40SW 70NW. 50 KT.......130NE 90SE 85SW 130NW. 34 KT.......200NE 140SE 135SW 200NW. 12 FT SEAS..205NE 145SE 160SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 179.3W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 178.7W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 17.2N 179.1E MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 45SE 40SW 70NW. 50 KT...130NE 90SE 85SW 130NW. 34 KT...200NE 140SE 135SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 17.0N 177.0E MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 45SE 40SW 70NW. 50 KT...140NE 100SE 85SW 140NW. 34 KT...200NE 140SE 125SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.0N 175.1E MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 45SE 40SW 70NW. 50 KT...140NE 100SE 85SW 140NW. 34 KT...200NE 140SE 125SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 17.3N 173.2E MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 50 KT...140NE 100SE 85SW 140NW. 34 KT...200NE 140SE 125SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 18.5N 169.7E MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 50 KT...140NE 100SE 85SW 140NW. 34 KT...200NE 140SE 125SW 200NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 20.8N 166.4E MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 23.6N 163.1E MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 179.3W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. REFER TO THE BULLETIN BY RSMC TOKYO HEREAFTER. $$ FORECASTER POWELL ** WTPA32 PHFO 270240 *** TCPCP2 BULLETIN HURRICANE IOKE ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 500 PM HST SAT AUG 26 2006 AT 500 PM HST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 179.3 WEST OR ABOUT 650 MILES WEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND AND ABOUT 735 MILES SOUTH OF MIDWAY ISLAND. IOKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO WESTERLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 920 MB...27.17 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 PM HST POSITION...17.7 N...179.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...920 MB. THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. REFER TO THE BULLETIN BY RSMC TOKYO HEREAFTER. $$ FORECASTER POWELL ** WTPA42 PHFO 270240 *** TCDCP2 HURRICANE IOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 500 PM HST SAT AUG 26 2006 HURRICANE IOKE IS ABOUT TO CROSS THE DATELINE AND BECOME TYPHOON IOKE...STILL AT CATEGORY 5 STATUS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FOR 26/2330Z OF 7.0 FROM CPHC AND KGWC...AND 6.5 FROM SAB AND JTWC...PROMPT US TO KEEP INITIAL INTENSITY AT 140 KT. AODT FROM CPHC IS 6.9. IOKE MAINTAINS A WELL-FORMED EYE WITH A CENTRAL TEMP OF +3.8C AND A SURROUNDING CLOUD REGION TEMP OF -72.0C. IOKE APPEARS TO HAVE COMPLETED AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE WITH LITTLE OR NO DECREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS NICELY CLUSTERED...WITH GUNS..GUNA AND CONU IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH...STRANGELY ENOUGH...BAMS. NOGAPS AND BAMD REPRESENT THE RIGHT AND LEFT OUTLIERS...RESPECTIVELY. TRACK CLUSTER GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE TAKE IOKE ALONG A WEST TO WEST SOUTHWESTERLY COURSE THROUGH 36 HOURS AS THIS SYSTEM RESPONDS TO WEAK RIDGING TO ITS NORTHWEST. THE 18Z GFS75 SHOWS THIS RIDGE WILL SPLIT ALONG IOKE/S PATH BEYOND 36 HOURS...DRAWING IOKE DUE WESTWARD BY 48 HOURS THEN NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 72...96 AND 120 HOURS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS...THEN DEVIATES SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AT 96 AND 120 HOURS. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW IOKE HAS BEGUN TO TAKE A MORE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK VERSUS THE SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK NOTED EARLIER TODAY. INITIAL FORWARD MOTION HAS INCREASED AS WELL AND IS INCREASED SLIGHTLY THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST TRACK. WHILE THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES IOKE NORTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND AT POINT OF CLOSEST APPROACH BETWEEN 84 AND 96 HOURS...IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE 18Z GFS75 TAKES THIS SYSTEM ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER THAT ISLAND AT 96 HOURS. IOKE WILL LIKELY GO THROUGH SEVERAL EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES OVER THE COMING DAYS...RESULTING IN SHORT TERM STRENGTH FLUCTUATIONS. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IOKE AT OR NEAR ITS CURRENT STRENGTH THROUGH 120 HOURS. NOGAPS AND UKMET ARE RATHER STEADY BUT...AS AN OUTLIER...GFDL WANTS TO STRENGTHEN IOKE TO 170 KT AT 96 HOURS. INCREASING SST AND LOW SHEAR ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WILL...AT THE VERY LEAST...GREATLY SLOW IOKE/S DECAY AT HIGHER LATITUDES. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. IOKE COULD ENTER THE RECORD BOOKS FOR LONGEVITY AS A CATEGORY 4 OR GREATER STORM. THIS IS THE FINAL DISCUSSION FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. REFER TO THE BULLETIN BY RSMC TOKYO HEREAFTER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/0300Z 17.7N 179.3W 140 KT 12HR VT 27/1200Z 17.2N 179.1E 140 KT 24HR VT 28/0000Z 17.0N 177.0E 140 KT 36HR VT 28/1200Z 17.0N 175.1E 140 KT 48HR VT 29/0000Z 17.3N 173.2E 140 KT 72HR VT 30/0000Z 18.5N 169.7E 140 KT 96HR VT 31/0000Z 20.8N 166.4E 140 KT 120HR VT 01/0000Z 23.6N 163.1E 135 KT $$ FORECASTER POWELL ** WTNT25 KNHC 270248 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 0300 UTC SUN AUG 27 2006 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO IN EASTERN CUBA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA... THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA KEYS... AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 72.7W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..225NE 225SE 30SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 72.7W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 72.2W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 17.8N 74.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 19.2N 76.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 20.5N 78.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 21.8N 80.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 24.0N 84.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 26.5N 86.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 29.0N 87.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 72.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z $$ FORECASTER KNABB ** WTNT24 KNHC 270255 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 0300 UTC SUN AUG 27 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 48.5W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 25SW 25NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 48.5W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 48.2W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 29.7N 48.7W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 32.1N 48.2W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.9N 48.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB ** WTNT24 KNHC 270255 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 0300 UTC SUN AUG 27 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 48.5W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 25SW 25NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 48.5W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 48.2W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 29.7N 48.7W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 32.1N 48.2W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.9N 48.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB ** WTNT35 KNHC 270256 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006 ...ERNESTO COULD PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINS OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO IN EASTERN CUBA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA... THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA KEYS... AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.7 WEST OR ABOUT 125 MILES...205 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 285 MILES...455 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR ...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL PASS NEAR WESTERN HAITI AND JAMAICA ON SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND ERNESTO COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. TIDES OF UP TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO APPROACHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA. THE OUTER BANDS OF ERNESTO MAY PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...16.8 N...72.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER KNABB ** WTPZ25 KNHC 270256 *** TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006 0300 UTC SUN AUG 27 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 119.8W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 125SE 175SW 200NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 119.8W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 119.5W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 23.5N 120.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 23.6N 122.2W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 23.5N 123.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.2N 119.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB ** WTNT44 KNHC 270257 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006 LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEBBY JUST A SWIRL OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS DEVOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES REMAIN AT 25 KT...AND A 2200 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS CONTAINED SOME 25 KT WIND VECTORS SUPPORTING THE SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS. BASED UPON THIS INFORMATION THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 25 KT. DEBBY IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 12 HOURS...CONTINGENT UPON NO RE-DEVELOPMENT OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION. RECENT FSU CYCLONE PHASE DIAGRAMS SHOW TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN 24 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES MORE INFLUENCED BY THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO ITS NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS REASONING AS WELL. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/10. DEBBY IS CURRENTLY BEING INFLUENCED BY A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AS WELL AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH ABSORPTION OF DEBBY BY THE FRONTAL ZONE OCCURRING IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/0300Z 27.9N 48.5W 25 KT 12HR VT 27/1200Z 29.7N 48.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 28/0000Z 32.1N 48.2W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 28/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB ** WTPZ45 KNHC 270257 *** TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006 800 PM PDT SAT AUG 26 2006 AS DEPICTED BY CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...ILEANA HAS BEEN DEVOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION FOR THE LAST 12 HOURS. ILEANA IS CONTINUING ITS SPINNING DOWN PROCESS AND A BLEND OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITIES AND DATA T-NUMBERS YIELDS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT. DUE TO THE LACK OF CONVECTION AND SINCE ILEANA IS MOVING OVER COOL 24 DEGREES CELSIUS WATERS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STEADY WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS. THIS FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH BOTH THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. ILEANA CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS AT 295/5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BENDING THE TRACK WESTWARD AS ILEANA BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHALLOW AND STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/0300Z 23.2N 119.8W 40 KT 12HR VT 27/1200Z 23.5N 120.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 28/0000Z 23.6N 122.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 28/1200Z 23.5N 123.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB ** WTNT45 KNHC 270301 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006 THE LAST AIRCRAFT FIX AT 00Z INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS UNCHANGED AT 997 MB. THE STRONGEST WINDS AT THE 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WERE 56 KT...CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 45 KT AT THE SURFACE. SINCE THE PRESSURE WAS STEADY AND SINCE THE AIRCRAFT MIGHT NOT HAVE MEASURED THE MAXIMUM WIND...AND CONSIDERING 00 UTC DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE A CONSENSUS 3.5 OR 55 KT...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 50 KT. SOME VERY DEEP CONVECTION HAD BEEN PULSATING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...BUT RECENTLY IT HAS EXPANDED AND BECOME MORE PERSISTENT NEAR THE CENTER. THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO RETREAT WESTWARD...AND THE RESTRICTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW TO THE WEST APPEARS TO BE GRADUALLY LESSENING. ANOTHER AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE ERNESTO IN A FEW HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 300/12...ALTHOUGH WITH ONLY INFRARED IMAGERY THIS REMAINS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...THE VARIOUS DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ERNESTO WILL MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL HEADING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...WHICH WOULD TAKE THE CYCLONE TOWARD AND THEN NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA. AFTER REACHING THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE MODEL TRACKS DIVERGE AS STEERING CURRENTS SLACKEN WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...WITH SOLUTIONS AS FAR WEST AS THE GFDN THAT TAKES ERNESTO TOWARD THE WESTERN GULF...AND AS FAR EAST AS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AS SHOWN BY THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND THE NOGAPS. IN THE MIDDLE BUT SLOWER IS THE GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD AT DAYS 4 AND 5 AND THAT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS NOT MOVED MUCH...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS CHANGED LITTLE AT THESE LONG RANGES AND IS JUST NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS. A SIGNIFICANT COMPLICATION IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH LAND...PRIMARILY CUBA. IF THE CENTER OF ERNESTO TAKES A PATH JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK...IT COULD SPEND QUITE A BIT OF TIME OVER CUBA AND WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY BETWEEN ABOUT 24 AND 48 HOURS FROM NOW. HOWEVER...IF THE CENTER TAKES A PATH FARTHER LEFT IT WOULD SPEND VERY LITTLE TIME OVER CUBA. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME INTERACTION WITH CUBA...BUT IT SHOWS ONLY A SLIGHTLY LESSER INTENSITY OVER THE GULF THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IT IS IMPORTANT...HOWEVER...TO REITERATE THAT ERNESTO COULD BECOME A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/0300Z 16.8N 72.7W 50 KT 12HR VT 27/1200Z 17.8N 74.2W 55 KT 24HR VT 28/0000Z 19.2N 76.3W 65 KT 36HR VT 28/1200Z 20.5N 78.5W 75 KT 48HR VT 29/0000Z 21.8N 80.6W 85 KT 72HR VT 30/0000Z 24.0N 84.0W 80 KT 96HR VT 31/0000Z 26.5N 86.5W 90 KT 120HR VT 01/0000Z 29.0N 87.0W 100 KT $$ FORECASTER KNABB ** WTNT34 KNHC 270306 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 1100 PM AST SAT AUG 26 2006 ...DEBBY BARELY HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND COULD DISSIPATE ON SUNDAY... AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.5 WEST OR ABOUT 1425 MILES...2290 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH... AND A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT DEBBY COULD DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW ON SUNDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.88 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...27.9 N...48.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB ** WTCA45 TJSJ 270309 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 10 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 PM AST SABADO 26 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...ERNESTO PUDIERA PRODUCIR LLUVIAS MUY FUERTES SOBRE HAITI Y LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA... SE RECOMIENDA QUE SE EMITA UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA SUR DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA DESDE BARAHONA HASTA LA FRONTERA DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA Y HAITI. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 12 A 24 HORAS. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA TORMENTA DE TROPICAL PARA EL SUR DE LA COSTA DE HAITI DESDE LA FRONTERA DE HAITI Y LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA AL OESTE HACIA LA PARTE SUROESTE DE HAITI. PERMANECEN EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA JAMAICA. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...Y GUANTANAMO EN EL ESTE DE CUBA. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS 36 HORAS. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL AREA EN EL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE...CUBA...EL NORESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN...LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA...Y EL SURESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO...DEBEN MONITOREAR EL PROGRESO DE ERNESTO. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS...FAVOR DE ESTAR ATENTOS A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 1100 PM AST...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 16.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 72.7 OESTE O COMO A 125 MILLAS...205 KILOMETROS...AL SUR SUROESTE DE PUERTO PRINCIPE EN HAITI Y COMO 285 MILLAS...455 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE-SURESTE DE KINGSTON JAMAICA. ERNESTO SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH...22 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA EL CENTRO DE ERNESTO DEBE PASAR CERCA DEL OESTE DE HAITI Y JAMAICA EL DOMINGO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 60 MPH...95 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA INTENSIFICACION ADICIONAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y ERNESTO PUEDE TORNARSE EN HURACAN EL DOMINGO. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 90 MILLAS...150 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ERA DE 997 MILIBARAS...29.44 PULGADAS. SE PUEDE ESPERAR OLEAJE DE HASTA 3 PIES POR ENCIMA DE LOS NIVELES NORMALES EN JAMAICA Y EL SUROESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE HAITI A MEDIDA QUE SE ACERCA EL CENTRO DE ERNESTO. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 6 A 12 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE HASTA 20 PULGADAS POSIBLES SOBRE HAITI Y LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA. ESTAS LLUVIAS PUDIERAN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS PELIGROSAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE 8 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE PORCIONES DE JAMAICA Y EL ESTE DE CUBA. LAS BANDAS EXTERIORES DE ERNESTO PUDIERAN PRODUCIR DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 PM AST...16.8 NORTE...72.7 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...60 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...997 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 AM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 AM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR KNABB ** WTNT80 EGRR 270520 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 27.08.2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY ANALYSED POSITION : 27.2N 48.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 27.08.2006 27.2N 48.0W WEAK 12UTC 27.08.2006 29.4N 48.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.08.2006 EXTRA-TROPICAL TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ANALYSED POSITION : 16.6N 72.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 27.08.2006 16.6N 72.7W MODERATE 12UTC 27.08.2006 17.0N 73.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.08.2006 18.9N 74.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.08.2006 20.8N 76.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.08.2006 22.4N 79.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.08.2006 23.8N 81.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.08.2006 24.9N 82.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.08.2006 26.0N 83.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 31.08.2006 27.5N 83.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 31.08.2006 29.1N 82.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.09.2006 31.8N 80.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 01.09.2006 34.7N 78.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.09.2006 37.3N 76.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM ILEANA ANALYSED POSITION : 22.5N 119.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 27.08.2006 22.5N 119.5W WEAK 12UTC 27.08.2006 23.3N 120.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.08.2006 23.7N 121.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.08.2006 23.8N 122.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.08.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE IOKE ANALYSED POSITION : 18.2N 178.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP012006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 27.08.2006 18.2N 178.7W MODERATE 12UTC 27.08.2006 17.4N 179.1E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.08.2006 15.9N 176.2E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.08.2006 15.5N 174.0E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.08.2006 15.9N 171.8E INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.08.2006 16.6N 169.5E INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.08.2006 17.4N 167.9E STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 30.08.2006 18.8N 166.4E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 31.08.2006 20.7N 165.3E INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 31.08.2006 22.6N 164.4E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.09.2006 24.6N 164.1E INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.09.2006 27.1N 164.1E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.09.2006 29.4N 163.9E INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 270520 ** WTNT35 KNHC 270554 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 200 AM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006 ...ERNESTO GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED SOUTH OF HAITI... ...HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF HISPANIOLA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO IN EASTERN CUBA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA... THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.7 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES...215 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 285 MILES...455 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR ...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR WESTERN HAITI AND JAMAICA LATER TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND ERNESTO COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.35 INCHES. TIDES OF UP TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO APPROACHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA. THE OUTER BANDS OF ERNESTO MAY PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...16.7 N...72.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART