** WTCA45 TJSJ 261800 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 8A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL052006 200 PM AST SABADO 26 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...ERNESTO MOVIENDOSE OESTE NOROESTE SOBRE EL MAR CARIBE CON POCOS CAMBIOS EN ORGANIZACION... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN CONTINUAN EN EFECTO PARA JAMAICA. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LAS ISLAS CAYMAN CONTINUA EN EFECTO PARA LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. CONTINUA EN EFECTO AVISOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA SUR DE LA ESPANOLA DESDE LA FRONTERA DE HAITI-DOMINICA REPUBLICANA HACIA EL OESTE HASTA EL EXTREMO SUROESTE DE HAITI. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL AREA EN EL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE...CUBA...EL NORTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DE MEXICO...Y EL SURESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO...DEBE DE VIGILAR EL PROGRESO DE ERNESTO. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS...FAVOR DE ESTAR ATENTOS A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 200 PM AST...1800Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 15.5 NORTE...LONGITUD 71.8 OESTE O COMO A 245 MILLAS... AL SUROESTE DE SANTO DOMINGO EN LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA Y COMO 370 MILLAS...595 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE-SURESTE DE KINGSTON JAMAICA. ERNESTO SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-OESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH...24 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA EL CENTRO DE ERNESTO ESTARA PASANDO AL SUR DE LA COSTA SUR DE LA ESPANOLA HOY...Y CERCA DE JAMAICA EL DOMINGO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 50 MPH...85 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA INTENSIFICACION ADICIONAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y ERNESTO PUEDE ESTAR CERCA DE FUERZA DE HURACAN A MEDIDA QUE PASA CERCA DE JAMAICA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 115 MILLAS...185 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ERA DE 997 MILIBARAS...29.44 PULGADAS. MARES DE HASTA 3 PIES POR ENCIMA DE LOS NIVELES NORMALES SE PUEDEN ESPERAR EN JAMAICA A MEDIDA QUE SE ACERCA EL CENTRO DE ERNESTO. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES MAXIMAS POSIBLES DE 12 PULGADAS...SON POSIBLES EN ASOCIACION CON ERNESTO A TRAVES DE JAMAICA. A TRAVES DE HAITI Y LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA...SE PUEDEN ESPERAR CANTIDADES DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS...CON AREAS AISLADAS DE HASTA 8 PULGADAS. LAS BANDAS EXTERIORES DE ERNESTO PUEDEN PRODUCIR ENTRE 1 A 3 PULGADAS DE LLUVIA A TRAVES DE PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 200 PM AST...15.5 NORTE...71.8 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...997 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 PM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN ** WTPA42 PHFO 262030 *** TCDCP2 HURRICANE IOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 1100 AM HST SAT AUG 26 2006 HURRICANE IOKE MAINTAINS ITS CATEGORY 5 STATUS...WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FOR 26/1730Z OF 7.0 FROM CPHC AND JTWC...AND 6.5 FROM KGWC. THIS SPANS A MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED RANGE OF 127 TO 140 KT. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN SATELLITE PRESENTATION FROM SIX HOURS AGO...WITH ADT FEEDBACK SHOWING AN EYE TEMP OF +10.8C. THE EYE REMAINS WELL-DEFINED...WITH SURROUNDING EYEWALL TEMPS RANGING FROM -71 TO -78C. THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS ARE WITHIN THE SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE. WE WILL KEEP THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 140 KT. THE BOUNDARY VALUE PROBLEM WITH UKMET APPEARS TO BE FIXED...RESULTING IN A LEFTWARD SHIFT OF ALL CONSENSUS MODEL TRACKS AND A MUCH TIGHTER TRACK CLUSTER OVERALL. TRACK CLUSTER GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE TAKE IOKE ALONG A WEST SOUTHWESTERLY COURSE THROUGH 36 HOURS AS THIS SYSTEM RESPONDS TO WEAK RIDGING TO ITS NORTHWEST. GFS SHOWS THIS RIDGE WILL SPLIT ALONG IOKE/S PATH BEYOND 36 HOURS...DRAWING IOKE WESTWARD BY 48 HOURS THEN NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 72...96 AND 120 HOURS. WHILE TAU THREE MOTION IS 245 DEGREES AT 8 KT...INITIAL MOTION IS CLOSER TO 215 DEGREES. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS RATHER SHARP MOTION TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS...THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 36 HOURS. THIS IS STILL WITHIN THE RANGE OF CONSENSUS AND UKMET GUIDANCE. WITH THE ADDITION OF CREDIBLE UKMET AND CONSENSUS GUIDANCE THIS ROUND...THE TIGHTER GUIDANCE CLUSTER HAS PROMPTED A SLIGHT TRACK SHIFT TO THE RIGHT BEYOND 36 HOURS. THE OVERALL EFFECT THROUGH 120 HOURS IS A SLIGHTLY SHARPER TURN TO THE RIGHT AS THE RIDGE COLLAPSES. THIS TRACK WILL BRING IOKE CLOSEST TO WAKE ISLAND AROUND 96 HOURS...BUT THE RIGHTWARD TRACK SHIFT INDICATES IOKE WILL PASS FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST. IOKE WILL LIKELY GO THROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...RESULTING IN SHORT TERM STRENGTH FLUCTUATIONS. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IOKE AT OR NEAR ITS CURRENT STRENGTH THROUGH 120 HOURS. AS AN OUTLIER...GFDL WANTS TO STRENGTHEN IOKE TO 168 KT AT 96 HOURS. SINCE OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT 96 AN 120 HOURS WERE NEAR THE LOW END OF THE GUIDANCE RANGE...WE BUMPED THESE UP BY 5 KT AT EACH OF THESE TIMES THIS ROUND. INCREASING SST AND LOW SHEAR ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WILL...AT THE VERY LEAST...GREATLY SLOW IOKE/S DECAY AT HIGHER LATITUDES. IF THIS PANS OUT...IOKE COULD ENTER THE RECORD BOOKS FOR LONGEVITY AS A CATEGORY 4 OR GREATER STORM. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/2100Z 18.2N 178.2W 140 KT 12HR VT 27/0600Z 17.7N 179.5W 135 KT 24HR VT 27/1800Z 17.3N 178.6E 140 KT 36HR VT 28/0600Z 17.2N 176.6E 140 KT 48HR VT 28/1800Z 17.2N 174.7E 140 KT 72HR VT 29/1800Z 18.0N 171.2E 140 KT 96HR VT 30/1800Z 20.0N 168.1E 140 KT 120HR VT 31/1800Z 22.9N 165.3E 135 KT $$ FORECASTER POWELL ** WTPA22 PHFO 262031 *** TCMCP2 HURRICANE IOKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 2100 UTC SAT AUG 26 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 178.2W AT 26/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 920 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT. 64 KT....... 70NE 45SE 40SW 70NW. 50 KT.......130NE 90SE 85SW 130NW. 34 KT.......200NE 140SE 135SW 200NW. 12 FT SEAS..205NE 145SE 160SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 178.2W AT 26/2100Z AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 177.7W FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 17.7N 179.5W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 35SE 30SW 60NW. 50 KT...120NE 80SE 75SW 120NW. 34 KT...180NE 120SE 115SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 17.3N 178.6E MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 45SE 40SW 70NW. 50 KT...140NE 100SE 85SW 140NW. 34 KT...200NE 140SE 125SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 17.2N 176.6E MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 45SE 40SW 70NW. 50 KT...140NE 100SE 85SW 140NW. 34 KT...200NE 140SE 125SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 17.2N 174.7E MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 50 KT...140NE 100SE 85SW 140NW. 34 KT...200NE 140SE 125SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 18.0N 171.2E MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 50 KT...140NE 100SE 85SW 140NW. 34 KT...200NE 140SE 125SW 200NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 20.0N 168.1E MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 22.9N 165.3E MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 178.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z $$ FORECASTER POWELL ** WTPA32 PHFO 262031 *** TCPCP2 BULLETIN HURRICANE IOKE ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 1100 AM HST SAT AUG 26 2006 AT 1100 AM HST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 178.2 WEST OR ABOUT 585 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND AND ABOUT 695 MILES SOUTH OF MIDWAY ISLAND. IOKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO WESTERLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 920 MB...27.17 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM HST POSITION...18.2 N...178.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...920 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM HST. $$ FORECASTER POWELL ** WTPZ25 KNHC 262033 *** TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006 2100 UTC SAT AUG 26 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 119.2W AT 26/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..225NE 200SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 119.2W AT 26/2100Z AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 119.1W FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 22.9N 120.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 23.1N 121.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 23.2N 123.2W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 23.2N 124.7W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.8N 119.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN/BEVEN ** WTPZ45 KNHC 262033 *** TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006 200 PM PDT SAT AUG 26 2006 VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF ILEANA IS SEPARATING FROM THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS SIMLIAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY SINCE VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS REMAINED FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. AN ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS IS 295/5. THE FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE SOUTHERLY INITIAL POSITION. CLOUD TOPS HAVE CONTINUED TO WARM AS ILEANA HAS LOST NEARLY ALL ITS DEEP CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE WILL BE CROSSING THE 24C ISOTHERM TONIGHT AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS FOR STEADY WEAKENING FOLLOWING A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. ILEANA SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AND DISSIPATE SHORTLY THEREAFTER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/2100Z 22.8N 119.2W 50 KT 12HR VT 27/0600Z 22.9N 120.5W 40 KT 24HR VT 27/1800Z 23.1N 121.8W 30 KT 36HR VT 28/0600Z 23.2N 123.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 28/1800Z 23.2N 124.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN/BEVEN ** WTNT24 KNHC 262035 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 2100 UTC SAT AUG 26 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 47.5W AT 26/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 50SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 47.5W AT 26/2100Z AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 47.3W FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 28.6N 48.3W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 31.2N 48.4W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 34.2N 46.8W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.0N 47.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN ** WTNT34 KNHC 262036 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 500 PM AST SAT AUG 26 2006 ...DEBBY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER OPEN WATERS... AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.5 WEST OR ABOUT 1410 MILES...2270 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. A TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...27.0 N...47.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN ** WTCA44 TJSJ 262039 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL DEBBY ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 21 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL042006 500 PM AST SABADO 26 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...DEBBY MOVIENDOSE AL NOROESTE SOBRE LAS AGUAS MAR ABIERTO... A LAS 500 PM AST...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL DEBBY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 27.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 47.5 OESTE O COMO A 1410 MILLAS...2270 KILOMETROS...AL OESTE-SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS AZORES. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO AL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH. SE ESPERA UN GIRO AL NORTE EN LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 30 MPH...55 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA POCO CAMBIO EN SU INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1009 MILIBARAS...29.80 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 PM AST...27.0 NORTE...47.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...30 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1009 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1100 PM AST. $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 262040 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 500 PM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS ERNESTO TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER... AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS...GRANMA... HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO IN EASTERN CUBA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA... THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA KEYS... AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS RE-LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.6 WEST OR ABOUT 190 MILES...310 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 375 MILES...600 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR ...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND NEAR JAMAICA ON SUNDAY. SOME ERRATIC MOTION COULD OCCUR TONIGHT AS THE CENTER POSSIBLY RE-FORMS. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND ERNESTO COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES JAMAICA AND WESTERN HAITI ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER WAS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. TIDES OF UP TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO APPROACHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ERNESTO ACROSS PORTIONS OF JAMAICA...HAITI...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE OUTER BANDS OF ERNESTO MAY PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...15.9 N...71.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTNT25 KNHC 262043 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 2100 UTC SAT AUG 26 2006 AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS...GRANMA... HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO IN EASTERN CUBA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA... THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA KEYS... AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 71.6W AT 26/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 71.6W AT 26/2100Z AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 71.2W FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 16.8N 73.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.1N 75.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.4N 77.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 20.8N 79.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 23.5N 83.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 25.5N 86.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 28.0N 87.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 71.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTNT44 KNHC 262043 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 500 PM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006 THIS AFTERNOON'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION DEPICTS A RECENTLY DEVELOPED BURST OF CONVECTION ABOUT 45 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE EXPOSED CENTER. THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES AS WELL AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY...REMAIN AT 25 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR DEBBY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN A BRIEF INTENSIFICATION PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN 36 HOURS. DEBBY IS THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED IN THE FRONTAL SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE FSU CYCLONE PHASE DIAGRAM BASED OFF OF THE GFS FIELDS SHOWS DISSIPATION AS A SHALLOW WARM CORE SYSTEM...WHILE THE UKMET DETERMINISTIC MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES ABSORPTION WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN 36 HOURS. SO...THERE STILL EXISTS A POSSIBILITY THAT DEBBY WILL DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT...OR NON-CONVECTIVE...LOW BEFORE UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. DEBBY HAS TAKEN A JOG TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/10. IT APPEARS THAT THE RATHER LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM IS INFLUENCING THIS MOTION AND ACCELERATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE MORE NORTHWARD IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...DEBBY SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE AS IT COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/2100Z 27.0N 47.5W 25 KT 12HR VT 27/0600Z 28.6N 48.3W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 27/1800Z 31.2N 48.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 28/0600Z 34.2N 46.8W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 28/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN ** WTCA45 TJSJ 262101 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 9 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL052006 500 PM AST SABADO 26 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA FUERZA AEREA ENCUENTRA QUE ERNESTO SE ENCUENTRA MAS AL ESTE NORESTE DE LA ADVERTENCIA ANTERIOR Y UN POCO MAS FUERTE... A LAS 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...EL GOBIERNO DE CUBA HA EMITIDO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...Y CUANTANAMO EN EL ESTE DE CUBA. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS 36 HORAS. SE RECOMIENDA QUE SE EMITA UN AVISO PARA LA COSTA SUR DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA DESDE BARAHONA HASTA LA FRONTERA DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA Y HAITI. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN CONTINUAN EN EFECTO PARA JAMAICA. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LAS ISLAS CAYMAN CONTINUA EN EFECTO PARA LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. CONTINUA EN EFECTO AVISOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA SUR DE HAITI DESDE LA FRONTERA ENTRE HAITI Y LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA AL OESTE HACIA EL SUROESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO...DEBEN MONITOREAR EL PROGRESO DE ERNESTO. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS...FAVOR DE ESTAR ATENTOS A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 500 PM AST...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 15.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 71.6 OESTE O COMO A 190 MILLAS...310 KILOMETROS...AL SUR SURESTE DE PUERTO PRINCIPE EN HAITI Y COMO 375 MILLAS...600 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE-SURESTE DE KINGSTON JAMAICA. ERNESTO SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH...20 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA EL CENTRO DE ERNESTO ESTARA PASANDO AL SUR DE LA COSTA SUR DE LA ESPANOLA ESTA NOCHE...Y CERCA DE JAMAICA EL DOMINGO. PUDIERA OCURRIR ALGUN MOVIMIENTO ERRATICO ESTA NOCHE A MEDIDA QUE SE VUELVA A FORMAR EL CENTRO. REPORTES DESDE EL AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA FUERZA AEREA INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 60 MPH...95 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA INTENSIFICACION ADICIONAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y ERNESTO PUEDE ESTAR CERCA DE FUERZA DE HURACAN A MEDIDA QUE PASA CERCA DE JAMAICA Y EL OESTE DE HAITI EL DOMINGO. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 115 MILLAS...185 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ERA DE 997 MILIBARAS...29.44 PULGADAS. MARES DE HASTA 3 PIES POR ENCIMA DE LOS NIVELES NORMALES SE PUEDEN ESPERAR EN JAMAICA A MEDIDA QUE SE ACERCA EL CENTRO DE ERNESTO. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE 12 PULGADAS...SON POSIBLES EN ASOCIACION CON ERNESTO A TRAVES DE JAMAICA....HAITI Y LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA. LAS BANDAS EXTERIORES DE ERNESTO PUEDEN PRODUCIR ENTRE 1 A 3 PULGADAS DE LLUVIA A TRAVES DE PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 PM AST...15.9 NORTE...71.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...60 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...997 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 800 PM EDT SEGUIDA POR UNA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 PM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN ** WTNT45 KNHC 262105 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 500 PM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006 ON A MISSION THAT FEATURED A SATCOM FAILURE...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED THAT THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WAS WELL EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY POSITION. HOW MUCH OF THIS IS DUE TO RE-FORMATION OF THE CENTER AND HOW MUCH IS DUE TO AN ACTUAL TRACK CHANGE IS UNCLEAR. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 997 MB...AND A DROPWINDSONDE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER SHOWED THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AT LEAST 50 KT. WHILE THE RE-FORMATION PUTS THE CENTER CLOSER TO THE CONVECTION...ERNESTO IS STILL ENCOUNTERING NOTABLE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY UNCERTAIN 295/11. WHILE THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE REFORMATION OF THE CENTER REQUIRES SHIFTING THE FIRST 72 HR OF THE TRACK ABOUT 50 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THIS INCREASES THE THREAT TO HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...CUBA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFS SOLUTION OF BRINGING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF ERNESTO TO SOUTH FLORIDA LOOKS DUBIOUS...AS THE 500 MB CENTER STAYS WELL TO THE SOUTH OVER CUBA. AFTER 72 HR...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE BROKEN BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW ERNESTO TO TURN NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL OR EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN SPEED BETWEEN THE SLOWER UKMET AND ECMWF AND THE FASTER NOGAPS. THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AT A SLOW SPEED...SIMILAR TO BUT EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MORE ADJUSTMENTS OF THE FORECAST TRACK MAY NECESSARY ON THE NEXT ADVISORY DEPENDING ON ANY NEW JUMPS IN THE CENTER POSITION TONIGHT. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...ALTHOUGH SO FAR THEY HAVE BEEN TOO FAST IN DOING SO. IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT...THE SHEAR SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR AND ALLOW ERNESTO TO STRENGTHEN. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST 24 HR...AND STEADY STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR ERNESTO TO REACH 105 KT INTENSITY IN 120 HR...SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL... AND THE STORM COULD GET STRONGER THAN THAT. ONE POTENTIAL PROBLEM WITH THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS INTERACTION WITH LAND...AS ERNESTO MIGHT NOT STRENGTHEN AS MUCH AS FORECAST IF IT GETS TOO CLOSE TO HISPANIOLA OR CUBA. IN SUMMARY...ERNESTO COULD BECOME A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/2100Z 15.9N 71.6W 50 KT 12HR VT 27/0600Z 16.8N 73.3W 50 KT 24HR VT 27/1800Z 18.1N 75.4W 60 KT 36HR VT 28/0600Z 19.4N 77.6W 70 KT 48HR VT 28/1800Z 20.8N 79.8W 80 KT 72HR VT 29/1800Z 23.5N 83.5W 85 KT 96HR VT 30/1800Z 25.5N 86.0W 95 KT 120HR VT 31/1800Z 28.0N 87.0W 105 KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN