** WTSR20 WSSS 260600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTNT35 KNHC 261431 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 AM AST SAT AUG 26 2006 ...ERNESTO CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CARIBBEAN...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED... AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR JAMAICA. AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI. INTERESTS IN ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA... THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.2 WEST OR ABOUT 250 MILES...405 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND ABOUT 420 MILES...680 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR ...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CORE OF ERNESTO SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA TODAY...AND NEAR JAMAICA ON SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND ERNESTO COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT PASSES NEAR JAMAICA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. TIDES OF UP TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO APPROACHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ERNESTO ACROSS JAMAICA. ACROSS PORTIONS OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE OUTER BANDS OF ERNESTO MAY PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...15.1 N...71.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTPZ25 KNHC 261432 *** TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006 1500 UTC SAT AUG 26 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 119.3W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 70SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..225NE 200SE 125SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 119.3W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 119.0W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 23.1N 120.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 23.3N 121.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 23.4N 123.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 23.5N 124.6W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 23.5N 127.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.8N 119.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN/BEVEN ** WTNT25 KNHC 261432 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1500 UTC SAT AUG 26 2006 AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR JAMAICA. AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI. INTERESTS IN ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... CUBA... THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 71.2W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 0SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 71.2W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 70.6W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 15.8N 73.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 17.0N 75.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.4N 78.1W...OVER JAMAICA MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.9N 80.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 22.5N 84.0W...OVER WESTERN CUBA MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 24.5N 87.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 27.0N 88.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 71.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTPZ45 KNHC 261432 *** TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006 800 AM PDT SAT AUG 26 2006 DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW LIMITED TO A SMALL AREA EAST OF THE CENTER...HOWEVER DATA-T NUMBERS OF 3.5 FROM SAB AND TAFB SUPPORT HOLDING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. AS ILEANA CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WATERS THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE CURRENT MOTION REMAINS 295/7...HOWEVER THIS IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE USUAL DIFFICULTY OF LOCATING THE CENTER IN INFRARED IMAGERY. THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED...AND ILEANA SHOULD TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DECOUPLES FROM THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND SHOWS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED PRIOR TO DISSIPATION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/1500Z 22.8N 119.3W 55 KT 12HR VT 27/0000Z 23.1N 120.4W 45 KT 24HR VT 27/1200Z 23.3N 121.7W 35 KT 36HR VT 28/0000Z 23.4N 123.0W 30 KT 48HR VT 28/1200Z 23.5N 124.6W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 29/1200Z 23.5N 127.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN/BEVEN ** WTNT24 KNHC 261436 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 1500 UTC SAT AUG 26 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 47.3W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 50SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 47.3W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 46.9W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 26.7N 48.6W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 29.5N 49.6W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 33.0N 48.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.6N 47.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN ** WTNT44 KNHC 261437 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING APPROXIMATELY 150 NMI TO THE NORTH OF THE EXPOSED CIRCULATION CENTER...A PRODUCT OF THE STRONG SOUTHERLY SHEAR. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DROPPED TO 25 KT...WITH THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOLLOWING SUIT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR DEBBY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN 36 HOURS. DEBBY WILL THEN ULTIMATELY BECOME ABSORBED IN THE FRONTAL SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. DEBBY IS MOVING WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 300/7. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND THE UKMET ALL SUGGEST THAT DEBBY WILL BEGIN INTERACTING WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE UKMET INDICATES A INCREASINGLY NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED IN THE FRONT. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS AND ECMWF REVEAL A MORE RAPID ABSORPTION PHASE...BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH IS VERY POSSIBLE. DEBBY SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NORTHWESTWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARD...A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED AS DEBBY COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/1500Z 25.6N 47.3W 25 KT 12HR VT 27/0000Z 26.7N 48.6W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 27/1200Z 29.5N 49.6W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 28/0000Z 33.0N 48.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN ** WTNT34 KNHC 261447 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 1100 AM AST SAT AUG 26 2006 ...DEBBY CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.3 WEST OR ABOUT 1465 MILES...2355 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...25.6 N...47.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN ** WTNT45 KNHC 261454 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006 THE LAST REPORT FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AT ABOUT 09Z INDICATED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 997 MB AND MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 60 KT. MICROWAVE DATA FROM THE WINDSAT SATELLITE AND MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ERNESTO REMAINS PARTLY SHEARED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE VERY STRONG CONVECTIVE MASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THIS COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/12...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE. OTHER THAN THAT...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...FORECAST REASONING...AND FORECAST TRACK FOR THE FIRST 72 HR ARE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. DURING THIS TIME...ERNESTO SHOULD MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND WESTERN CUBA. THE FORECAST TRACK IS MORE PROBLEMATIC AFTER 72 HR. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL WEAKEN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN HOW MUCH WEAKENING WILL OCCUR. THE ECMWF AND NOGAPS CALL FOR ERNESTO TO RECURVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE THE UKMET SHOWS ENOUGH RIDGE TO KEEP ERNESTO MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE IN BETWEEN...CALLING FOR SLOW MOTION OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. COMPLICATING MATTERS FURTHER IS A LACK OF RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE FORECAST TRACK AFTER 72 HR CALLS FOR A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED...WITH A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION THAN IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. OVERALL..THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...ALTHOUGH SO FAR THEY HAVE BEEN TOO FAST IN DOING SO. IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT...THE CURRENT 15-20 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR AND ALLOW ERNESTO TO STRENGTHEN. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST 36 HR...AND STEADY STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR ERNESTO TO REACH 100 KT INTENSITY IN 120 HR...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS...AND THE STORM COULD GET STRONGER THAN THAT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...FOR AS OF YET UNDETERMINED REASONS...CALLS FOR LITTLE INTENSIFICATION AFTER 96 HR EVEN THOUGH THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS INHIBITING FACTORS. IN SUMMARY...ERNESTO COULD BECOME A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/1500Z 15.1N 71.2W 45 KT 12HR VT 27/0000Z 15.8N 73.0W 50 KT 24HR VT 27/1200Z 17.0N 75.5W 60 KT 36HR VT 28/0000Z 18.4N 78.1W 60 KT...OVER JAMAICA 48HR VT 28/1200Z 19.9N 80.5W 70 KT...OVER WATER 72HR VT 29/1200Z 22.5N 84.0W 80 KT...OVER WESTERN CUBA 96HR VT 30/1200Z 24.5N 87.0W 90 KT...OVER WATER 120HR VT 31/1200Z 27.0N 88.5W 100 KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTPA22 PHFO 261500 *** TCMCP2 HURRICANE IOKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 1500 UTC SAT AUG 26 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 177.9W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 920 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT. 64 KT....... 70NE 45SE 40SW 70NW. 50 KT.......130NE 90SE 85SW 130NW. 34 KT.......200NE 140SE 135SW 200NW. 12 FT SEAS..205NE 145SE 160SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 177.9W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 177.4W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 18.3N 179.2W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 35SE 30SW 60NW. 50 KT...120NE 80SE 75SW 120NW. 34 KT...180NE 120SE 115SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 17.8N 178.9E MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 45SE 40SW 70NW. 50 KT...140NE 100SE 85SW 140NW. 34 KT...200NE 140SE 125SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 17.4N 177.0E MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 45SE 40SW 70NW. 50 KT...140NE 100SE 85SW 140NW. 34 KT...200NE 140SE 125SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.2N 174.9E MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 50 KT...140NE 100SE 85SW 140NW. 34 KT...200NE 140SE 125SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 17.2N 170.9E MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 50 KT...140NE 100SE 85SW 140NW. 34 KT...200NE 140SE 125SW 200NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 18.9N 167.8E MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 21.7N 164.8E MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 177.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWNING ** WTPA32 PHFO 261501 *** TCPCP2 BULLETIN HURRICANE IOKE ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 500 AM HST SAT AUG 26 2006 AT 500 AM HST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 177.9 WEST OR ABOUT 570 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND AND ABOUT 1075 MILES EAST OF WAKE ISLAND. IOKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 920 MB...27.17 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 AM HST POSITION...18.7 N...177.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...920 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM HST. $$ FORECASTER BROWNING ** WTPA42 PHFO 261505 *** TCDCP2 HURRICANE IOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 500 AM HST SAT AUG 26 2006 HURRICANE IOKE IS ONCE AGAIN A CATEGORY 5 STORM...WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FOR 26/1130Z RANGING FROM 6.5 TO 7.0...OR 127 TO 140KT. 1130Z ADT ESTIMATE WAS 7.0. RECENT GOES INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOP TEMPS REACHING -79C WITH EYE TEMPS AT +9.9C. A VERY SYMMETRICAL RING OF -72 TO -75C CLOUD TOPS NOW SURROUNDS THE EYE. THAT SAID...HAVE INCREASED THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 140 KT. ONCE AGAIN THE BIG ISSUE WITH THE TRACK GUIDANCE FOR THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS THAT THE UKMET TRACK BOUNCED OFF THE DATE LINE...RESULTING IN AN ERRONEOUS MIRROR IMAGE TRACK...EASTBOUND BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. THIS THREW ALL OF THE CONSENSUS MODEL TRACKS OFF...BENDING THEM BACK SHARPLY EASTWARD. THAT SAID...HAVE BEEN FORCED TO IGNORE ALL CONSENSUS MODELS ONCE AGAIN...AND GO WITH A BLEND OF THE BAMM...BAMD...ECMWF...AND GFS. THE GFS SHOWS IOKE CONTINUING TO MOVE IN TANDEM WITH AN ANTICYCLONE LOCATED AROUND 25N UNTIL IT REACHES ABOUT 170E, THEN THE ANTICYCLONE STALLS IN RESPONSE TO A WELL DEVELOPED TROUGH NEAR 155E. IOKE THEN MOVES AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH...AND BEGINS A CURVE TO THE NORTHWEST. THE 500 MB TREND OF THE GFS OVER THE LAST 3 RUNS HAS BEEN TO DIG THE TROUGH MORE DEEPLY AT 155E BY WED 30/18Z...HOWEVER THIS MAY NOT BE IN TIME TO KEEP THE STORM FROM BECOMING A SERIOUS THREAT TO WAKE ISLAND. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS...WITH A SLIGHT MOVE TO THE NORTH TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION AFTER THAT. THIS TRACK CONTINUES TO HAVE SERIOUS IMPLICATIONS FOR WAKE ISLAND IN THE 96 TO 120 HOUR TIME FRAME...WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK TAKING IT JUST NORTH OF THE ISLAND. IN THE SHORT TERM...THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS A SLIGHT WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE AT 1030Z WHICH SHOWED WELL DEVELOPED CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS...ONE WITH A RADIUS OF ABOUT 10 NM...AND ANOTHER OUT AT ABOUT 4O NM. THE INNER EYEWALL WILL LIKELY COLLAPSE SOMETIME OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... LEADING TO A TEMPORARY WEAKENING. THE CYCLE WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR TO THAT SEEN OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...SO THE INTENSITY WAS INCREASED ONCE AGAIN AT 24 HOURS. BEYOND THAT...IT WAS KEPT CONSTANT UNTIL RECURVATURE LATE IN THE FORECAST. LOOKING AT CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL WIND FIELDS AROUND IOKE AND HOW THE STORM HAS RESPONDED..BY INTENSIFYING AGAIN TO A CATEGORY 5...THE STORM WILL LIKELY REMAIN A CATEGORY 4 OR 5 STORM FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES WILL LIKELY BRING PERIODIC FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY...HOWEVER THERE IS NO CLEAR EVIDENCE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE OVERALL STORM ENVIRONMENT. ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL CYCLONES AT ABOUT 150W AND 155E FLANK A HUGE ANTICYCLONE COVERING THE MID PACIFIC...AND IOKE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BENEFIT FROM THE RESULTING LOW SHEAR AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW PATTERN. IN ADDITION...SST VALUES WARM TO 29C ALONG THE TRACK. IF INDEED IOKE MAINTAINS CATEGORY 4 OR 5 STATUS FOR THE NEXT 96 HOURS...A PRELIMINARY SURVEY OF THE RECORDS SHOW THAT THIS COULD BE A WORLD RECORD FOR LONGEVITY OF A CATEGORY 4 OR GREATER STORM. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/1500Z 18.7N 177.9W 140 KT 12HR VT 27/0000Z 18.3N 179.2W 135 KT 24HR VT 27/1200Z 17.8N 178.9E 140 KT 36HR VT 28/0000Z 17.4N 177.0E 140 KT 48HR VT 28/1200Z 17.2N 174.9E 140 KT 72HR VT 29/1200Z 17.2N 170.9E 140 KT 96HR VT 30/1200Z 18.9N 167.8E 135 KT 120HR VT 31/1200Z 21.7N 164.8E 130 KT $$ FORECASTER BROWNING ** WTCA45 TJSJ 261517 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 8 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 AM AST SABADO 26 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...ERNESTO CONTINUA OESTE NOROESTE SOBRE EL CARIBE...SE EMITEN NUEVAS VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS... A LAS 11 AM AST...1500Z...EL GOBIERNO DE JAMAICA HA EMITIDO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN. A LAS 11 AM AST...1500Z...EL GOBIERNO DE LAS ISLAS CAYMAN HA EMITIDO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. CONTINUA EN EFECTO AVISOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA SUR DE LA ESPANOLA DESDE LA FRONTERA DE HAITI-DOMINICA REPUBLICANA HACIA EL OESTE HASTA EL EXTREMO SUROESTE DE HAITI. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL AREA EN EL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE...CUBA...EL NORTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DE MEXICO...Y EL SURESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO...DEBE DE VIGILAR EL PROGRESO DE ERNESTO. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS...FAVOR DE ESTAR ATENTOS A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 1100 AM AST...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 15.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 71.2 OESTE O COMO A 250 MILLAS...AL SUR-SUROESTE DE SANTO DOMINGO EN LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA Y COMO 420 MILLAS...680 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE-SURESTE DE KINGSTON JAMAICA. ERNESTO SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-OESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH...22 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA EL CENTRO DE ERNESTO ESTARA PASANDO AL SUR DE LA COSTA SUR DE LA ESPANOLA HOY...Y CERCA DE JAMAICA EL DOMINGO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 50 MPH...85 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA INTENSIFICACION ADICIONAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y ERNESTO PUEDE ESTAR CERCA DE FUERZA DE HURACAN A MEDIDA QUE PASA CERCA DE JAMAICA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 115 MILLAS...185 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ERA DE 997 MILIBARAS...29.44 PULGADAS. MARES DE HASTA 3 PIES POR ENCIMA DE LOS NIVELES NORMALES SE PUEDEN ESPERAR EN JAMAICA A MEDIDA QUE SE ACERCA EL CENTRO DE ERNESTO. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES MAXIMAS POSIBLES DE 12 PULGADAS...SON POSIBLES EN ASOCIACION CON ERNESTO A TRAVES DE JAMAICA. A TRAVES DE HAITI Y LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA...SE PUEDEN ESPERAR CANTIDADES DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS...CON AREAS AISLADAS DE HASTA 8 PULGADAS. LAS BANDAS EXTERIORES DE ERNESTO PUEDEN PRODUCIR ENTRE 1 A 3 PULGADAS DE LLUVIA A TRAVES DE PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 AM AST...15.1 NORTE...71.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...997 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 200 PM AST SEGUIDA POR LA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 500 PM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN ** WTCA44 TJSJ 261528 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL DEBBY ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 20 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL042006 1100 AM AST SABADO 26 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...DEBBY CONTINUA ENCONTRANDO DIFICULTAD SOBRE LAS AGUAS ABIERTAS DEL ESTE DEL ATLANTICO... A LAS 1100 AM AST...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL DEBBY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 25.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 47.3 OESTE O COMO A 1465 MILLAS...2355 KILOMETROS...AL OESTE-SUROESTE SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS AZORES. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO AL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. SE ESPERA UN GIRO AL NOROESTE MAS TARDE HOY. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 30 MPH...55 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA POCO CAMBIO EN SU INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 1009...29,80 PULGADAS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1009 MILIBARAS...29.80 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 AM AST...25.6 NORTE...47.3 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...30 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1009 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 PM AST. $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 261651 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 26.08.2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY ANALYSED POSITION : 25.0N 47.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 26.08.2006 25.0N 47.0W WEAK 00UTC 27.08.2006 26.0N 48.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.08.2006 28.0N 48.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.08.2006 30.0N 48.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.08.2006 32.7N 46.9W EXTRA TROPICAL TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ANALYSED POSITION : 14.8N 70.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 26.08.2006 14.8N 70.7W WEAK 00UTC 27.08.2006 15.6N 73.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.08.2006 16.8N 75.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.08.2006 18.1N 76.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.08.2006 19.6N 80.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.08.2006 20.9N 82.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.08.2006 22.5N 84.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.08.2006 23.8N 86.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 30.08.2006 25.3N 88.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 31.08.2006 25.9N 89.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 31.08.2006 26.4N 89.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.09.2006 27.9N 88.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.09.2006 28.6N 88.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM ILEANA ANALYSED POSITION : 22.7N 118.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 26.08.2006 22.7N 118.9W MODERATE 00UTC 27.08.2006 23.1N 120.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.08.2006 23.8N 121.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.08.2006 24.2N 122.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.08.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE IOKE ANALYSED POSITION : 18.9N 177.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP012006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 26.08.2006 18.9N 177.5W STRONG 00UTC 27.08.2006 18.5N 179.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.08.2006 18.1N 178.6E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.08.2006 17.5N 176.3E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.08.2006 17.1N 174.2E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.08.2006 16.8N 172.4E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.08.2006 17.5N 170.8E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.08.2006 18.2N 169.6E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.08.2006 19.4N 168.4E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 31.08.2006 20.9N 167.2E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 31.08.2006 22.2N 166.1E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.09.2006 23.4N 164.9E STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.09.2006 24.6N 163.5E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 261651 ** WTNT35 KNHC 261744 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 200 PM AST SAT AUG 26 2006 ...ERNESTO MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA...THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.8 WEST OR ABOUT 245 MILES...395 KM...SOUTHWEST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND ABOUT 370 MILES...595 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR ...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CORE OF ERNESTO SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA THIS AFTERNOON...AND NEAR JAMAICA ON SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND ERNESTO COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT PASSES NEAR JAMAICA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. TIDES OF UP TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO APPROACHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ERNESTO ACROSS JAMAICA. ACROSS PORTIONS OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE OUTER BANDS OF ERNESTO MAY PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...15.5 N...71.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN