** WTCA45 TJSJ 260622 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 6A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL052006 200 AM AST SABADO 26 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ..AVION DE LA FUERZA AEREA ENCUENTRA A ERNESTO MEJOR ORGANIZADO... CONTINUA EN EFECTO AVISOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA SUR DE LA ESPANOLA DESDE LA FRONTERA DE HAITI-DOMINICA REPUBLICANA HACIA EL OESTE HASTA EL EXTREMO SUROESTE DE HAITI. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA JAMAICA. INTERESES EN LAS ISLAS CAYMAN Y EL OESTE DE CUBA DEBEN VIGILAR EL PROGRESO DE ERNESTO. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS...FAVOR DE MONITOREAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 200 AM AST...0600Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 14.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 69.5 OESTE O COMO A 265 MILLAS...410 KILOMETROS...AL SUR DE SANTO DOMINGO EN LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA Y COMO 530 MILLAS...855 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE-SURESTE DE KINGSTON JAMAICA. ERNESTO SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH....23 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA EL CENTRO DE ERNESTO ESTARA PASANDO AL SUR DE LA COSTA SUR DE LA ESPANOLA HOY. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 45 MPH...75 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA INTENSIFICACION ADICIONAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 90 MILLAS...150 KILOMETROS MAYORMENTE AL NORESTE DE EL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA RECIENTEMENTE INFORMADA POR UN AVION DE LA FUERZA AEREA ERA DE 999 MILIBARAS...29.50 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE LAS ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA SEAN DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS EN ASOCIACION CON ERNESTO A TRAVES DE PORCIONES DE PUERTO RICO...LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA Y HAITI. CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS POSIBLES DE 8 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 200 AM AST...14.7 NORTE...69.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...999 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 5M AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR AVILA ** WTCA45 TJSJ 260623 CCA *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 6A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL052006 200 AM AST SABADO 26 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ..AVION DE LA FUERZA AEREA ENCUENTRA A ERNESTO MEJOR ORGANIZADO... CONTINUA EN EFECTO AVISOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA SUR DE LA ESPANOLA DESDE LA FRONTERA DE HAITI-DOMINICA REPUBLICANA HACIA EL OESTE HASTA EL EXTREMO SUROESTE DE HAITI. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA JAMAICA. INTERESES EN LAS ISLAS CAYMAN Y EL OESTE DE CUBA DEBEN VIGILAR EL PROGRESO DE ERNESTO. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS...FAVOR DE MONITOREAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 200 AM AST...0600Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 14.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 69.5 OESTE O COMO A 265 MILLAS...410 KILOMETROS...AL SUR DE SANTO DOMINGO EN LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA Y COMO 530 MILLAS...855 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE-SURESTE DE KINGSTON JAMAICA. ERNESTO SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH....23 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA EL CENTRO DE ERNESTO ESTARA PASANDO AL SUR DE LA COSTA SUR DE LA ESPANOLA HOY. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 45 MPH...75 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA INTENSIFICACION ADICIONAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 90 MILLAS...150 KILOMETROS MAYORMENTE AL NORESTE DE EL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA RECIENTEMENTE INFORMADA POR UN AVION DE LA FUERZA AEREA ERA DE 999 MILIBARAS...29.50 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE LAS ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA SEAN DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS EN ASOCIACION CON ERNESTO A TRAVES DE PORCIONES DE PUERTO RICO...LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA Y HAITI. CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS POSIBLES DE 8 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 200 AM AST...14.7 NORTE...69.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...999 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 5M AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR AVILA ** WTNT44 KNHC 260836 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 500 AM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006 SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THAT DEBBY IS CONTINUING TO WEAKEN. IN ADDITION... THE OVERALL SATELLITE PRESENTATION SUGGESTS THAT DEBBY IS LOOKING LESS TROPICAL THAN EARLIER WITH ONLY SCANT DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED WELL NORTHWARD OF THE CENTER. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE LOWERED TO 30 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH SATELLITE ESTIMATES. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY WHILE DEBBY IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE DUE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY SHEAR. DEBBY COULD EITHER BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN A DAY... AS SUGGESTED BY THE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS FROM FSU... OR A REMNANT LOW IF THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE LIMITED. SOME EXTRATROPICAL RE-INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE IN LINE WITH A FEW GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS... THOUGH THERE MIGHT NOT BE MUCH LEFT BY THEN. DEBBY IS HEADING MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST THIS MORNING... 290/11. THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH UNTIL IT FINDS A BREAK IN THE RIDGE... EVENTUALLY ACCELERATING IN A DAY OR SO AHEAD OF A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE GFS/ECMWF SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD REPRESENTATION OF THE WEAK CYCLONE AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED WESTWARD CLOSER TO THEIR SOLUTIONS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0900Z 25.3N 46.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 26/1800Z 26.4N 48.1W 30 KT 24HR VT 27/0600Z 28.6N 49.1W 30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 27/1800Z 31.5N 48.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 28/0600Z 34.5N 47.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 29/0600Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA ** WTNT24 KNHC 260836 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 0900 UTC SAT AUG 26 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 46.7W AT 26/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 50SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 46.7W AT 26/0900Z AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 46.2W FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 26.4N 48.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 28.6N 49.1W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 31.5N 48.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 34.5N 47.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.3N 46.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA ** WTNT34 KNHC 260837 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 500 AM AST SAT AUG 26 2006 ...DEBBY WEAKENS INTO A DEPRESSION... AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.7 WEST OR ABOUT 1450 MILES...2330 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...25.3 N...46.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA ** WTPZ45 KNHC 260839 *** TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006 200 AM PDT SAT AUG 26 2006 ONLY A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION REMAINS NEAR THE CENTER OF ILEANA TONIGHT. IN ADDITION A QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED NO WINDS HIGHER THAN 50 KT IN THE CIRCULATION... WHICH MIGHT BE REASONABLE GIVEN A LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION TO ATTENUATE THE MICROWAVE SIGNAL. USING THE QUIKSCAT ESTIMATE AND A BLEND OF THE DVORAK ESIMATES... THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 55 KT. A CONTINUED SPINDOWN OF THE VORTEX IS EXPECTED DUE TO SUB 25C SSTS AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/GFDL MODELS. REMNANT LOW STATUS SHOULD OCCUR IN A COUPLE DAYS... IF NOT SOONER... AS THE CYCLONE PASSES OVER EVEN COOLER WATER. THE MUCH-ANTICIPATED LEFTWARD TURN APPEARS BE OCCURRING... WITH A MOTION OF ABOUT 295/6. A MOTION MORE TO THE WEST IS FORECAST IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE BECOMES WEAKER AND IS STEERED PREDOMINATELY BY LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES. THE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE IN A WESTWARD FASHION FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE DISSIPATION AROUND THE 72-96 HOUR TIME FRAME. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0900Z 22.5N 118.6W 55 KT 12HR VT 26/1800Z 22.8N 119.5W 50 KT 24HR VT 27/0600Z 23.1N 120.8W 40 KT 36HR VT 27/1800Z 23.3N 122.0W 30 KT 48HR VT 28/0600Z 23.4N 123.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 29/0600Z 23.5N 126.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA ** WTPZ25 KNHC 260839 *** TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006 0900 UTC SAT AUG 26 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 118.6W AT 26/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 70SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..225NE 200SE 125SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 118.6W AT 26/0900Z AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 118.3W FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 22.8N 119.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 23.1N 120.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 23.3N 122.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 23.4N 123.2W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 23.5N 126.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 118.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA ** WTNT35 KNHC 260844 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 500 AM AST SAT AUG 26 2006 ...ERNESTO HEADING TOWARD THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.2 WEST OR ABOUT 255 MILES...415 KM...SOUTH OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND ABOUT 490 MILES...790 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR ...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF ERNESTO WILL BE PASSING SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA TODAY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM FROM THE CENTER. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ERNESTO ACROSS PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...AND JAMAICA WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...14.8 N...70.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTNT25 KNHC 260844 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 0900 UTC SAT AUG 26 2006 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 70.2W AT 26/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..130NE 130SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 70.2W AT 26/0900Z AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 69.5W FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 15.4N 72.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 16.6N 74.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.0N 77.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.5N 80.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 22.0N 83.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 24.0N 86.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 26.0N 89.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 70.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTNT45 KNHC 260845 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 500 AM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006 AN AIR FORCE PLANE HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING ERNESTO AND FOUND THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE DROPPED TO 999 MB WITH A WELL-ESTABLISHED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. HOWEVER FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS HAVE NOT INCREASED MUCH SINCE THE PREVIOUS FLIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED ON THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE LARGE DEEP CONVECTIVE MASS DUE TO THE CURRENT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR. ALTHOUGH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT 45 KNOTS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON AVAILABLE REPORTS FROM THE AIRCRAFT. ERNESTO HAS BEEN A FIGHTER AND HAS BEEN ABLE TO SURVIVE THE STRONG SHEAR SO FAR. UNANIMOUSLY...ALL GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER ERNESTO...A PATTERN WHICH IS CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING. THIS UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN COMBINED WITH THE VERY WARM WATERS AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE COULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS COULD RESULT IN ERNESTO BECOMING A POWERFUL HURRICANE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOWER THAN THE GFDL AND VERY SIMILAR TO SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. OF COURSE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND STRENGTHENING MAY NOT OCCUR AT ALL IF THE SHEAR DOES NOT DECREASE. FIXES FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IN A DAY OR TWO AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE BUT CLOSER TO THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. IN SUMMARY...ERNESTO COULD BECOME A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0900Z 14.8N 70.2W 40 KT 12HR VT 26/1800Z 15.4N 72.2W 50 KT 24HR VT 27/0600Z 16.6N 74.8W 55 KT 36HR VT 27/1800Z 18.0N 77.5W 60 KT 48HR VT 28/0600Z 19.5N 80.0W 70 KT 72HR VT 29/0600Z 22.0N 83.5W 80 KT 96HR VT 30/0600Z 24.0N 86.5W 90 KT 120HR VT 31/0600Z 26.0N 89.0W 100 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTPA22 PHFO 260900 *** TCMCP2 HURRICANE IOKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 0900 UTC SAT AUG 26 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 176.9W AT 26/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 930 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 35SE 30SW 60NW. 50 KT.......120NE 80SE 75SW 120NW. 34 KT.......180NE 120SE 115SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..220NE 140SE 120SW 220NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 176.9W AT 26/0900Z AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 176.5W FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.8N 177.9W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 35SE 30SW 60NW. 50 KT...120NE 80SE 75SW 120NW. 34 KT...180NE 120SE 115SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 18.5N 179.5W MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 45SE 40SW 70NW. 50 KT...140NE 100SE 85SW 140NW. 34 KT...200NE 140SE 125SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.1N 178.6E MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 45SE 40SW 70NW. 50 KT...140NE 100SE 85SW 140NW. 34 KT...200NE 140SE 125SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 17.6N 176.5E MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 50 KT...140NE 100SE 85SW 140NW. 34 KT...200NE 140SE 125SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 17.6N 172.0E MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 50 KT...140NE 100SE 85SW 140NW. 34 KT...200NE 140SE 125SW 200NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 18.7N 167.7E MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 21.9N 163.6E MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 176.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWNING ** WTPA32 PHFO 260902 *** TCPCP2 BULLETIN HURRICANE IOKE ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 1100 PM HST FRI AUG 25 2006 AT 1100 PM HST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 176.9 WEST OR ABOUT 510 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND AND ABOUT 635 MILES SOUTH OF MIDWAY ISLAND. IOKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 930 MB...27.46 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM HST POSITION...19.0 N...176.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM HST. $$ FORECASTER BROWNING ** WTPA42 PHFO 260919 *** TCDCP2 HURRICANE IOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 1100 PM HST FRI AUG 25 2006 HURRICANE IOKE CONTINUES TO PUT ON A SPECTACULAR SHOW IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FOR 26/0530Z RANGED FROM 6.0 TO 6.5...OR 115 TO 127KT. 0730Z ADT ESTIMATE WAS 6.6...AND HAVE KEPT THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 130 KT. THAT SAID...RECENT GOES INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOP TEMPS REACHING -78C WITH EYE TEMPS AT +4C. LARGE RING OF -72 TO -75C CLOUD TOPS NOW SURROUND THE EYE...AND THE HURRICANE IS VERY LIKELY INTENSIFYING. THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE EVIDENT IN THE CIMSS MIMIC LOOP OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS LOOKS TO BE COMPLETE...AND THE HURRICANE MAY ONCE AGAIN REACH CATEGORY 5 STATUS SHORTLY. BIG ISSUE WITH THE TRACK GUIDANCE FOR THE 06Z MODEL SUITE IS THAT THE UKMET TRACK BOUNCED OFF THE DATE LINE...RESULTING IN AN ERRONEOUS MIRROR IMAGE TRACK...EASTBOUND BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. THIS THREW ALL OF THE CONSENSUS MODEL TRACKS OFF...BENDING THEM BACK SHARPLY EASTWARD. THAT SAID...HAVE BEEN FORCED TO IGNORE ALL CONSENSUS MODELS...AND GO WITH A BLEND OF THE BAMM...BAMD AND GFS. THE GFS SHOWS IOKE CONTINUING TO MOVE IN TANDEM WITH AN ANTICYCLONE LOCATED AROUND 25N UNTIL IT REACHES ABOUT 170E, THEN THE ANTICYCLONE STALLS IN RESPONSE TO A WELL DEVELOPED TROUGH NEAR 155E. IOKE THEN MOVES AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH...AND BEGINS A CURVE TO THE NORTHWEST. THE TREND OF THE GFS OVER THE LAST 3 RUNS HAS BEEN TO BEGIN THE NORTHWARD TURN FARTHER WEST WITH EACH RUN. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS A SUBSTANTIAL MOVE TO THE WEST AFTER 48 HOURS...AND THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR WAKE ISLAND IN THE 96 TO 120 HOUR TIME FRAME...AS THE NEW FORECAST TRACK TAKES IT VERY NEAR THERE. AS FAR AS INTENSITY...LOOKING AT CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL WIND FIELDS AROUND IOKE AND HOW IT IS RESPONDING...BY INTENSIFYING...THE STORM WILL LIKELY REMAIN A CATEGORY 4 OR 5 STORM FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES MAY BRING PERIODIC FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY...HOWEVER THERE IS NO CLEAR EVIDENCE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE OVERALL STORM ENVIRONMENT. ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL CYCLONES AT ABOUT 150W AND 155E FLANK A HUGE ANTICYCLONE COVERING THE MID PACIFIC...AND IOKE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BENEFIT FROM THE RESULTING LOW SHEAR AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW PATTERN. IN ADDITION...SST VALUES WARM TO 29C ALONG THE TRACK. IF INDEED IOKE MAINTAINS CATEGORY 4 OR 5 STATUS FOR THE NEXT 96 HOURS...A PRELIMINARY SURVEY OF THE RECORDS SHOW THAT THIS COULD BE A WORLD RECORD FOR LONGEVITY OF A CATEGORY 4 OR GREATER STORM. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0900Z 19.0N 176.9W 130 KT 12HR VT 26/1800Z 18.8N 177.9W 135 KT 24HR VT 27/0600Z 18.5N 179.5W 140 KT 36HR VT 27/1800Z 18.1N 178.6E 140 KT 48HR VT 28/0600Z 17.6N 176.5E 140 KT 72HR VT 29/0600Z 17.6N 172.0E 140 KT 96HR VT 30/0600Z 18.7N 167.7E 135 KT 120HR VT 31/0600Z 21.9N 163.6E 130 KT $$ FORECASTER BROWNING ** WTCA44 TJSJ 260926 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL DEBBY ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 19 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL042006 500 AM AST SABADO 26 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...DEBBY SE DEBILITA A DEPRESIONL... A LAS 500 AM AST...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL DEBBY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 25.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 46.7 OESTE O COMO A 1450 MILLAS...2330 KILOMETROS...AL OESTE-SUROESTE SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS AZORES. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO AL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. SE ESPERA UN GIRO AL NOROESTE MAS TARDE HOY. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA POCO CAMBIO EN SU INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 1009...29,80 PULGADAS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1009 MILIBARAS...29.80 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 AM AST...25.3 NORTE...46.7 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1009 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1100 AM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADO BERG/KNABB ** WTCA45 TJSJ 260933 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 7 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL052006 500 AM AST SABADO 26 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...ERNESTO SE DIRIGE HACIA EL MAR CARIBE CENTRAL... CONTINUA EN EFECTO AVISOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA SUR DE LA ESPANOLA DESDE LA FRONTERA DE HAITI-DOMINICA REPUBLICANA HACIA EL OESTE HASTA EL EXTREMO SUROESTE DE HAITI. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA JAMAICA. INTERESES EN LAS ISLAS CAYMAN Y EL OESTE DE CUBA DEBEN VIGILAR EL PROGRESO DE ERNESTO. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS...FAVOR DE MONITOREAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 500 AM AST...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 14.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 70.2 OESTE O COMO A 255 MILLAS...415 KILOMETROS...AL SUR DE SANTO DOMINGO EN LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA Y COMO 490 MILLAS...790 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE-SURESTE DE KINGSTON JAMAICA. ERNESTO SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-OESTE A CERCA DE 16 MPH....26 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA EL CENTRO DE ERNESTO ESTARA PASANDO AL SUR DE LA COSTA SUR DE LA ESPANOLA HOY. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 45 MPH...75 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA INTENSIFICACION ADICIONAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 115 MILLAS...185 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA RECIENTEMENTE INFORMADA POR UN AVION DE LA FUERZA AEREA ERA DE 999 MILIBARAS...29.50 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE LAS ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA SEAN DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS EN ASOCIACION CON ERNESTO A TRAVES DE PORCIONES DE PUERTO RICO...LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA Y HAITI. CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS POSIBLES DE 8 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 AM AST...14.8 NORTE...70.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 16 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...999 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1100 AM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR AVILA ** WTPN33 PHNC 261000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/260935AUG2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 10E (ILEANA) WARNING NR 020 DOWNGRADED FROM HURRICANE 10E 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 260600Z --- NEAR 22.4N 118.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.4N 118.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 22.8N 119.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 23.1N 120.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 23.3N 122.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 23.4N 123.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 23.5N 126.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 261000Z POSITION NEAR 22.5N 118.7W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261600Z, 262200Z, 270400Z AND 271000Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 01C (IOKE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PHNC 261000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/260930AUG2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 01C (IOKE) WARNING NR 026 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 260600Z --- NEAR 19.1N 176.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.1N 176.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 18.8N 177.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 18.5N 179.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 18.1N 178.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 17.6N 176.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 17.6N 172.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 18.7N 167.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 21.9N 163.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT --- REMARKS: 261000Z POSITION NEAR 19.0N 177.0W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 39 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261600Z, 262200Z, 270400Z AND 271000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10E (ILEANA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTNT35 KNHC 261134 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 800 AM AST SAT AUG 26 2006 ...ERNESTO STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR JAMAICA LATER TODAY. A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING. INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.6 WEST OR ABOUT 245 MILES...395 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND ABOUT 455 MILES...730 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR ...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF ERNESTO WILL BE PASSING SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...80 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 997 MB...29.50 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ERNESTO ACROSS PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...AND JAMAICA WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...15.0 N...70.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTCA45 TJSJ 261148 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 7A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL052006 800 AM AST SABADO 26 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...ERNESTO SE FORTALECE SOBRE EL CARIBE CENTRAL... CONTINUA EN EFECTO AVISOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA SUR DE LA ESPANOLA DESDE LA FRONTERA DE HAITI-DOMINICA REPUBLICANA HACIA EL OESTE HASTA EL EXTREMO SUROESTE DE HAITI. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA JAMAICA. PROBABLEMENTE SE REQUIERAN AVISOS PARA JAMAICA MAS TARDE HOY. PROBABLEMENTE SE EMITRA UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LAS ISLAS CAYMAN MAS TARDE ESTA MANANA. LOS INTERESES EN LAS ISLAS CAYMAN Y EL OCCIDENTE DE CUBA DEBEN DE SEGUIR DE SEGUIR EL PROGRESO DE ERNEST. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS...FAVOR DE MONITOREAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 800 AM AST...1200Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 15.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 70.6 OESTE O COMO A 395 MILLAS...AL SUR-SUROESTE DE SANTO DOMINGO EN LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA Y COMO 455 MILLAS...730 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE-SURESTE DE KINGSTON JAMAICA. ERNESTO SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-OESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH...24 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA EL CENTRO DE ERNESTO ESTARA PASANDO AL SUR DE LA COSTA SUR DE LA ESPANOLA HOY. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 50 MPH...80 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA INTENSIFICACION ADICIONAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 115 MILLAS...185 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA RECIENTEMENTE INFORMADA POR UN AVION DE LA FUERZA AEREA ERA DE 997 MILIBARAS...29.50 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE LAS ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA SEAN DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS EN ASOCIACION CON ERNESTO A TRAVES DE PORCIONES DE PUERTO RICO...LAS ISLAS VIRGENES...REPUBLICA DOMINICANA Y HAITI Y JAMAICA CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS POSIBLES DE 8 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 800 AM AST...15.0 NORTE...70.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...997 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1100 AM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN