** WTSR20 WSSS 251800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTCA45 TJSJ 260005 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 5A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL052006 800 PM AST VIERNES 25 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ..LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO CONTINUA AL OESTE NOROESTE SOBRE EL ESTE DEL CARIBE... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA EL SUROESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE HAITI DESDE LA FRONTERA DE HAITI Y REPUBLICA DOMINICANA HACIA EL OESTE A LA PARTE SUROESTE DE HAITI. TAMBIEN ESTA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA JAMAICA. INTERESES EN LAS ISLAS CAYMAN Y EL OESTE DE CUBA DEBEN VIGILAR EL PROGRESO DE ERNESTO. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS...FAVOR DE MONITOREAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 800 PM AST...0000Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 14.5 NORTE...LONGITUD 68.4 OESTE O COMO A 285 MILLAS...460 KILOMETROS...AL SUR SURESTE DE SANTO DOMINGO EN LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA Y COMO 600 MILLAS...965 KILOMETROS...ESTE-SURESTE DE KINGSTON JAMAICA. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH....24 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA EL CENTRO DE ERNESTO PASARA CERCA DE LA COSTA SUR DE LA ESPANOLA EL SABADO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 40 MPH...65 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUNA INTENSIFICACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 90 MILLAS...150 KILOMETROS DESDE EL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 1004 MILIBARAS...29.65 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE LAS ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA SEAN DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS EN ASOCIACION CON ERNESTO A TRAVES DE PORCIONES DE LA ESPANOLA Y JAMAICA...Y DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS DE LLUVIA EN PARTES DE PUERTO RICO Y LAS ANTILLAS HOLANDESAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 PM AST...14.5 NORTE...68.4 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 1004 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA ISERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR MAINELLI/KNABB ** WTNT34 KNHC 260236 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 1100 PM AST FRI AUG 25 2006 ...DEBBY BARELY HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL STORM... AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.6 WEST OR ABOUT 1400 MILES...2255 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. DEBBY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR... AND A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...25.2 N...45.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BERG/KNABB ** WTNT24 KNHC 260237 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 0300 UTC SAT AUG 26 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 45.6W AT 26/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 45.6W AT 26/0300Z AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 45.1W FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 26.5N 47.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 28.5N 48.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 30.8N 48.7W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 33.6N 47.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.2N 45.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG/KNABB ** WTPZ45 KNHC 260241 *** TCDEP5 HURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006 800 PM PDT FRI AUG 25 2006 AN EYE WAS STILL BARELY APPARENT AT 00Z...AND DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS WERE STILL 4.0 WHICH SUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE ADVISORY INTENSITY AT 65 KT. SINCE THEN...HOWEVER...THE EYE HAS COMPLETELY DISAPPEARED AND THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED A LITTLE...SO ILEANA WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM SHORTLY. SSTS BENEATH THE SYSTEM ARE NEAR 25 CELSIUS AND WILL CONTINUE TO COOL ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREFORE A STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND ILEANA IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE INITIAL MOTION HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH AND THE CURRENT ESTIMATE IS 310/6. A TURN TO THE LEFT OR WEST IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONE BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHALLOW AND STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES. THE EVENTUAL REMNANT LOW SHOULD CONTINUE WESTWARD AT ABOUT 6 KT UNTIL IT DISSIPATES IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0300Z 22.3N 117.9W 65 KT 12HR VT 26/1200Z 22.7N 118.7W 55 KT 24HR VT 27/0000Z 23.0N 119.9W 45 KT 36HR VT 27/1200Z 23.1N 121.3W 35 KT 48HR VT 28/0000Z 23.2N 122.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 29/0000Z 23.5N 125.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KNABB ** WTPZ25 KNHC 260241 *** TCMEP5 HURRICANE ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006 0300 UTC SAT AUG 26 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 117.9W AT 26/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 45NE 40SE 40SW 45NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..250NE 225SE 150SW 175NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 117.9W AT 26/0300Z AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 117.6W FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 22.7N 118.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 40SE 40SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 23.0N 119.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 23.1N 121.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 23.2N 122.7W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 23.5N 125.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 117.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z $$ FORECASTER KNABB ** WTCA44 TJSJ 260245 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL DEBBY ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 18 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL042006 1100 PM AST VIERNES 25 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...DEBBY DEBILMENTE COMO TORMENTA TROPICAL... A LAS 1100 PM AST...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL DEBBY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 25.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 45.6 OESTE O COMO A 1400 MILLAS...2255 KILOMETROS...AL SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS AZORES. DEBBY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH...22 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO AL NOROESTE Y LUEGO AL NORTE NOROESTE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 40 MPH...65 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA POCO CAMBIO EN SU INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 105 MILLAS...165 KILOMETROS...DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1008 MILIBARAS...29.77 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 PM AST...25.2 NORTE...45.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1008 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 AM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADO BERG/KNABB ** WTNT44 KNHC 260245 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006 DESPITE CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB WHICH SUPPORT DOWNGRADING DEBBY TO A DEPRESSION...A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN A SMALL AREA ABOUT 90 NM NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND QUIKSCAT DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT WHILE THERE IS A DEFINITE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...THE SYSTEM IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY ELONGATED AND ASYMMETRIC. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER DEBBY FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS...SO IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THE CYCLONE...IN ITS CURRENT FRAGILE STATE...WOULD BE ABLE TO SURVIVE THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WHICH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. CYCLONE PHASE DIAGRAMS AND MODEL FIELDS SUGGEST THAT DEBBY SHOULD BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN 36 HOURS THEN BECOME FULLY ABSORBED IN THE FRONTAL ZONE BY 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN MAINTAINING A MARGINAL TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER...IT COULD WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME. DEBBY HAS TAKEN A SLIGHT WESTWARD JOG WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 300/12. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO RECURVE TO THE NORTH IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. DEBBY WILL THEN ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND 48 HOURS AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ONLY SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0300Z 25.2N 45.6W 35 KT 12HR VT 26/1200Z 26.5N 47.1W 35 KT 24HR VT 27/0000Z 28.5N 48.5W 35 KT 36HR VT 27/1200Z 30.8N 48.7W 40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 28/0000Z 33.6N 47.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 29/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT $$ FORECASTER BERG/KNABB ** WTNT25 KNHC 260247 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 0300 UTC SAT AUG 26 2006 AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 69.1W AT 26/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 69.1W AT 26/0300Z AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 68.4W FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 15.6N 71.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.6N 73.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 17.8N 76.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 19.0N 79.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 22.0N 84.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 24.0N 87.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 26.0N 90.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 69.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB ** WTPA22 PHFO 260247 *** TCMCP2 HURRICANE IOKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 0300 UTC SAT AUG 26 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 176.2W AT 26/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 930 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 35SE 30SW 60NW. 50 KT.......120NE 80SE 75SW 120NW. 34 KT.......180NE 120SE 115SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..220NE 140SE 120SW 220NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 176.2W AT 26/0300Z AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 175.8W FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 19.3N 177.2W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 30SE 25SW 55NW. 50 KT...110NE 75SE 70SW 110NW. 34 KT...170NE 110SE 105SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 19.0N 178.6W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 30SE 25SW 55NW. 50 KT...110NE 75SE 70SW 110NW. 34 KT...170NE 110SE 105SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.5N 179.9E MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 30SE 35SW 60NW. 50 KT...120NE 80SE 75SW 120NW. 34 KT...180NE 115SE 120SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.1N 178.2E MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 50 KT...120NE 80SE 75SW 120NW. 34 KT...180NE 115SE 120SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 18.1N 175.3E MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 50 KT...110NE 75SE 70SW 110NW. 34 KT...170NE 110SE 105SW 170NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 19.5N 172.7E MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 22.5N 170.3E MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 176.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BURKE ** WTCA44 TJSJ 260245 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL DEBBY ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 18 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL042006 1100 PM AST VIERNES 25 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...DEBBY DEBILMENTE COMO TORMENTA TROPICAL... A LAS 1100 PM AST...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL DEBBY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 25.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 45.6 OESTE O COMO A 1400 MILLAS...2255 KILOMETROS...AL SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS AZORES. DEBBY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH...22 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO AL NOROESTE Y LUEGO AL NORTE NOROESTE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 40 MPH...65 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA POCO CAMBIO EN SU INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 105 MILLAS...165 KILOMETROS...DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1008 MILIBARAS...29.77 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 PM AST...25.2 NORTE...45.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1008 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 AM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADO BERG/KNABB ** WTPA32 PHFO 260248 *** TCPCP2 BULLETIN HURRICANE IOKE ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 500 PM HST FRI AUG 25 2006 AT 500 PM HST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 176.2 WEST OR ABOUT 475 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND AND ABOUT 620 MILES SOUTH OF MIDWAY ISLAND. IOKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...BEFORE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST SOUTHWEST...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 930 MB...27.46 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 PM HST POSITION...19.3 N...176.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM HST. $$ FORECASTER BURKE ** WTNT44 KNHC 260245 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006 DESPITE CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB WHICH SUPPORT DOWNGRADING DEBBY TO A DEPRESSION...A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN A SMALL AREA ABOUT 90 NM NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND QUIKSCAT DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT WHILE THERE IS A DEFINITE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...THE SYSTEM IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY ELONGATED AND ASYMMETRIC. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER DEBBY FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS...SO IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THE CYCLONE...IN ITS CURRENT FRAGILE STATE...WOULD BE ABLE TO SURVIVE THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WHICH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. CYCLONE PHASE DIAGRAMS AND MODEL FIELDS SUGGEST THAT DEBBY SHOULD BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN 36 HOURS THEN BECOME FULLY ABSORBED IN THE FRONTAL ZONE BY 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN MAINTAINING A MARGINAL TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER...IT COULD WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME. DEBBY HAS TAKEN A SLIGHT WESTWARD JOG WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 300/12. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO RECURVE TO THE NORTH IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. DEBBY WILL THEN ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND 48 HOURS AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ONLY SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0300Z 25.2N 45.6W 35 KT 12HR VT 26/1200Z 26.5N 47.1W 35 KT 24HR VT 27/0000Z 28.5N 48.5W 35 KT 36HR VT 27/1200Z 30.8N 48.7W 40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 28/0000Z 33.6N 47.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 29/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT $$ FORECASTER BERG/KNABB ** WTPA42 PHFO 260248 *** TCDCP2 HURRICANE IOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 500 PM HST FRI AUG 25 2006 THE CLOUD PATTERN OF HURRICANE IOKE REMAINS IMPRESSIVE BUT HAS SHOWN A BIT OF A WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE WELL-DEVELOPED EYE HAS WARMED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH LESS CLOUD INTRUSION THAN WHAT WAS PRESENT EARLIER TODAY. THE SYSTEM REMAINS RATHER SYMMETRICAL. SHEAR DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A FACTOR AS THE SYSTEM IS PRESENTLY ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FOR 25/2330Z RANGED FROM 6.0 TO 6.5...OR 115 TO 130KT. AODT ESTIMATES WERE 5.9. WE HAVE LOWERED THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 130 KT...STILL A STRONG CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES AND RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WIND RADII AND HAVE KEEP THE 12 FT SEAS RADII A BIT LARGER SINCE THE SYSTEM IS SLOW MOVING. THE MODEL FORECASTS REMAIN IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS...BAMM...AND BAMD WHICH REMAIN FARTHEST SOUTH AND WEST. LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE THROUGH 48 HOURS WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE LEFT CLOSER TO GUNS...GUNA...AND CONU. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS IOKE CROSSING THE DATELINE AND BECOMING A TYPHOON BETWEEN 27/06Z AND 27/12Z. MOST MODELS KEEP IOKE RATHER STRONG AND ACTUALLY SHOW SOME INTENSIFICATION. SHEAR IS NOT INDICATED TO BE MUCH OF A FACTOR AT LEAST THROUGH 72 HOURS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE AND ACTUALLY WARM TO NEAR 29C WEST OF 180. WE NOW FORECAST ONLY MINOR UP AND DOWN INTENSITY CHANGES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND KEEP INTENSITIES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW MOST GUIDANCE VALUES. EARLIER TODAY HURRICANE IOKE STRENGTHENED TO CATEGORY 5 INTENSITY WITH WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 160 MPH. THIS IS THE FIFTH CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE ON RECORD IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...AND THE FIRST ONE SINCE 1994. IOKE IS THE FIRST STORM TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC AND ACHIEVE CATEGORY 5 STATUS. JOHN...EMILIA AND GILMA MOVED IN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC BEFORE STRENGTHENING...WHILE PATSY CAME IN FROM THE WEST PACIFIC. AT THE SAME TIME...THE ESTIMATED SURFACE PRESSURE FROM SATELLITE ANALYSIS WAS 921MB OR 27.20 INCHES. THIS UNOFFICIALLY IS THE LOWEST SURFACE PRESSURE FOR A SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0300Z 19.3N 176.2W 130 KT 12HR VT 26/1200Z 19.3N 177.2W 125 KT 24HR VT 27/0000Z 19.0N 178.6W 125 KT 36HR VT 27/1200Z 18.5N 179.9E 130 KT 48HR VT 28/0000Z 18.1N 178.2E 135 KT 72HR VT 29/0000Z 18.1N 175.3E 130 KT 96HR VT 30/0000Z 19.5N 172.7E 125 KT 120HR VT 31/0000Z 22.5N 170.3E 120 KT $$ FORECASTER BURKE ** WTNT35 KNHC 260253 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 PM AST FRI AUG 25 2006 ...ERNESTO SLIGHTLY STRONGER OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.1 WEST OR ABOUT 260 MILES...420 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND ABOUT 555 MILES...895 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR ...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL BE PASSING NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA ON SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE ERNESTO OVERNIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM... MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ERNESTO ACROSS PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...14.8 N...69.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB ** WTNT45 KNHC 260300 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006 SINCE THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DEPARTED FROM THE TROPICAL STORM...CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED AND EXPANDED...BUT IS STILL DISPLACED MOSTLY EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSES ESTIMATE ABOUT 15 KTS OF WESTERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY AFFECTING ERNESTO WITH STRONGER SHEAR TO THE NORTHWEST. IT HAS BEEN A BIT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATION AND CONSEQUENTLY THE INITIAL INTENSITY BASED UPON THE DVORAK SHEAR PATTERN. DUE TO THE DEEPENING CONVECTION AND DATA T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB RANGING FROM 35 KT TO 45 KT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN BUMPED UP TO 40 KT. RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE BACK IN TO INVESTIGATE ERNESTO AT 0600 UTC TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/14. A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO STEER ERNESTO ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS...AND THE MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD. THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES A BIT TRICKY ON DAYS 4 AND 5...WHEN A WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING PATTERN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FORECAST BY MOST OF THE MODELS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST KEEPS ERNESTO ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. CURRENTLY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS SITUATED OVER EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA WITH STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO ITS SOUTHEAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THIS UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS MOVING RAPIDLY TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...AND THE MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW SHOULD END UP ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD PROVIDE A VERY WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR ERNESTO TO STRENGTHEN...AND IN FACT THE SHIPS GUIDANCE FORECASTS THE SHEAR TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY IN 36-48 HOURS AND REMAIN WEAK THROUGH DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS NUDGED UPWARD...SINCE MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES AN EVEN STRONGER INTENSITY THAN SHOWN BELOW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0300Z 14.8N 69.1W 40 KT 12HR VT 26/1200Z 15.6N 71.1W 45 KT 24HR VT 27/0000Z 16.6N 73.7W 50 KT 36HR VT 27/1200Z 17.8N 76.4W 55 KT 48HR VT 28/0000Z 19.0N 79.0W 60 KT...NEAR JAMAICA 72HR VT 29/0000Z 22.0N 84.0W 70 KT 96HR VT 30/0000Z 24.0N 87.0W 80 KT 120HR VT 31/0000Z 26.0N 90.0W 85 KT $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB ** WTCA45 TJSJ 260303 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 6 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 PM AST VIERNES 25 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ..ERNESTO UN POCO MAS FUERTE SOBRE EL ESTE DEL MAR CARIBE... A LAS 11 PM AST...0300Z...LA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL HA SIDO ASCENDIDA A AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL A LO LARGO DEL SUROESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE HAITI. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA ACTUALMENTE EN EFECTO DESDE LA FRONTERA DE HAITI Y REPUBLICA DOMINICANA HACIA EL OESTE A LA PARTE SUROESTE DE HAITI. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA JAMAICA. INTERESES EN LAS ISLAS CAYMAN Y EL OESTE DE CUBA DEBEN VIGILAR EL PROGRESO DE ERNESTO. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS...FAVOR DE MONITOREAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 1100 PM AST...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 14.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 69.1 OESTE O COMO A 260 MILLAS...420 KILOMETROS...AL SUR SURESTE DE SANTO DOMINGO EN LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA Y COMO 555 MILLAS...895 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE-SURESTE DE KINGSTON JAMAICA. ERNESTO SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 16 MPH....26 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA EL CENTRO DE ERNESTO PASARA CERCA DE LA COSTA SUR DE LA ESPANOLA EL SABADO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 45 MPH...75 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUNA INTENSIFICACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA FUERZA AEREA ESTA PROGRAMADO PARA INVESTIGAR ERNESTO DURANTE LA NOCHE. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 90 MILLAS...150 KILOMETROS DESDE EL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 1003 MILIBARAS...29.62 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE LAS ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA SEAN DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS EN ASOCIACION CON ERNESTO A TRAVES DE PORCIONES DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA Y HAITI. CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS POSIBLES DE 8 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM AST...14.8 NORTE...69.1 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 16 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 1003 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 AM AST SEGUIDA POR LA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 AM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR MAINELLI/KNABB ** WTNT25 KNHC 260304 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 0300 UTC SAT AUG 26 2006 ...CORRECTED TO REMOVE INLAND AT 48 HOURS AND TO ADD 36 HOURS NEAR JAMAICA... AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 69.1W AT 26/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 69.1W AT 26/0300Z AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 68.4W FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 15.6N 71.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.6N 73.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 17.8N 76.4W...NEAR JAMAICA MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 19.0N 79.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 22.0N 84.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 24.0N 87.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 26.0N 90.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 69.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB ** WTNT45 KNHC 260305 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006 ...CORRECTED TO INDICATE NEAR JAMAICA AT 36 HOURS... SINCE THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DEPARTED FROM THE TROPICAL STORM...CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED AND EXPANDED...BUT IS STILL DISPLACED MOSTLY EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSES ESTIMATE ABOUT 15 KTS OF WESTERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY AFFECTING ERNESTO WITH STRONGER SHEAR TO THE NORTHWEST. IT HAS BEEN A BIT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATION AND CONSEQUENTLY THE INITIAL INTENSITY BASED UPON THE DVORAK SHEAR PATTERN. DUE TO THE DEEPENING CONVECTION AND DATA T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB RANGING FROM 35 KT TO 45 KT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN BUMPED UP TO 40 KT. RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE BACK IN TO INVESTIGATE ERNESTO AT 0600 UTC TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/14. A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO STEER ERNESTO ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS...AND THE MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD. THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES A BIT TRICKY ON DAYS 4 AND 5...WHEN A WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING PATTERN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FORECAST BY MOST OF THE MODELS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST KEEPS ERNESTO ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. CURRENTLY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS SITUATED OVER EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA WITH STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO ITS SOUTHEAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THIS UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS MOVING RAPIDLY TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...AND THE MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW SHOULD END UP ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD PROVIDE A VERY WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR ERNESTO TO STRENGTHEN...AND IN FACT THE SHIPS GUIDANCE FORECASTS THE SHEAR TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY IN 36-48 HOURS AND REMAIN WEAK THROUGH DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS NUDGED UPWARD...SINCE MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES AN EVEN STRONGER INTENSITY THAN SHOWN BELOW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0300Z 14.8N 69.1W 40 KT 12HR VT 26/1200Z 15.6N 71.1W 45 KT 24HR VT 27/0000Z 16.6N 73.7W 50 KT 36HR VT 27/1200Z 17.8N 76.4W 55 KT...NEAR JAMAICA 48HR VT 28/0000Z 19.0N 79.0W 60 KT 72HR VT 29/0000Z 22.0N 84.0W 70 KT 96HR VT 30/0000Z 24.0N 87.0W 80 KT 120HR VT 31/0000Z 26.0N 90.0W 85 KT $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB ** WTPN32 PHNC 260400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/260340AUG2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 01C (IOKE) WARNING NR 025 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 260000Z --- NEAR 19.3N 175.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.3N 175.8W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 19.3N 177.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 155 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 19.0N 178.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 155 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 18.5N 179.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 18.1N 178.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 18.1N 175.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 19.5N 172.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 155 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z --- 22.5N 170.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT --- REMARKS: 260400Z POSITION NEAR 19.3N 176.3W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 37 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261000Z, 261600Z, 262200Z AND 270400Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 10E (ILEANA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN33 PHNC 260400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/260335AUG2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 10E (ILEANA) WARNING NR 019 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 260000Z --- NEAR 22.2N 117.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.2N 117.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 22.7N 118.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 23.0N 119.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 23.1N 121.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 23.2N 122.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 23.5N 125.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT --- REMARKS: 260400Z POSITION NEAR 22.4N 118.0W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261000Z, 261600Z, 262200Z AND 270400Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 01C (IOKE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTNT80 EGRR 260446 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 26.08.2006 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ANALYSED POSITION : 24.5N 44.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 26.08.2006 24.5N 44.9W WEAK 12UTC 26.08.2006 25.9N 47.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.08.2006 27.6N 48.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.08.2006 30.2N 48.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.08.2006 34.2N 47.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.08.2006 EXTRA-TROPICAL TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ANALYSED POSITION : 14.8N 68.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 26.08.2006 14.8N 68.3W WEAK 12UTC 26.08.2006 15.9N 71.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.08.2006 16.0N 74.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.08.2006 17.4N 76.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.08.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE ILEANA ANALYSED POSITION : 22.0N 117.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 26.08.2006 22.0N 117.3W MODERATE 12UTC 26.08.2006 22.7N 118.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.08.2006 23.4N 120.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.08.2006 24.1N 121.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.08.2006 24.9N 123.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.08.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE IOKE ANALYSED POSITION : 19.3N 175.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP012006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 26.08.2006 19.3N 175.7W STRONG 12UTC 26.08.2006 19.3N 177.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.08.2006 19.2N 179.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.08.2006 18.6N 178.6E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.08.2006 17.8N 176.8E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.08.2006 17.7N 175.2E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.08.2006 17.7N 173.6E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.08.2006 18.3N 172.3E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.08.2006 19.3N 171.1E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.08.2006 20.4N 169.7E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 31.08.2006 21.6N 168.5E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 31.08.2006 22.7N 167.3E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.09.2006 23.5N 165.7E STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 260446 ** WTIN20 DEMS 260549 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 26-08-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTH ANDAMAN SEA AND PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 29 DEG. NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) ==== ** WTNT35 KNHC 260557 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 200 AM AST SAT AUG 26 2006 ...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS A BETTER ORGANIZED ERNESTO... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.5 WEST OR ABOUT 255 MILES...410 KM...SOUTH OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND ABOUT 530 MILES...855 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. ERNESTO HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...23 KM/HR ...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL BE PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM... MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTER. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ERNESTO ACROSS PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. REPEATING THE 200 AM AST POSITION...14.7 N...69.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA