** WTNT35 KNHC 252030 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 500 PM AST FRI AUG 25 2006 ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DETERMINES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE HAS BECOME TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO... AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWEST TIP OF HAITI. ALSO AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR JAMAICA. INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.6 WEST OR ABOUT 300 MILES...485 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT 660 MILES...1065 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR ...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ERNESTO ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA...WITH 1-3 INCHES EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE DUTCH NETHERLAND ANTILLES. REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...14.3 N...67.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTNT25 KNHC 252031 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 2100 UTC FRI AUG 25 2006 AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWEST TIP OF HAITI. ALSO AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR JAMAICA. INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 67.6W AT 25/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 67.6W AT 25/2100Z AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 67.1W FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 15.0N 69.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.0N 72.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 17.0N 74.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 25SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.0N 77.2W...OVER JAMAICA MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 20.5N 82.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 23.0N 85.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 24.5N 88.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 67.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTNT24 KNHC 252035 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 2100 UTC FRI AUG 25 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 44.7W AT 25/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 45NE 20SE 20SW 45NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 44.7W AT 25/2100Z AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 44.1W FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 26.2N 46.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 20SE 20SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 28.2N 48.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 20SE 20SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 30.3N 49.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 20SE 20SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 32.7N 48.5W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 39.0N 43.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 65NE 55SE 50SW 65NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 46.0N 34.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.9N 44.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN ** WTNT34 KNHC 252036 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 500 PM AST FRI AUG 25 2006 ...DEBBY CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER OPEN WATERS... AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.7 WEST OR ABOUT 1470 MILES...2370 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. DEBBY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...24.9 N...44.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN ** WTPZ25 KNHC 252039 *** TCMEP5 HURRICANE ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006 2100 UTC FRI AUG 25 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 117.2W AT 25/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 45NE 40SE 40SW 45NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..250NE 225SE 150SW 175NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 117.2W AT 25/2100Z AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 117.0W FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 22.4N 117.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 40SE 40SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 22.8N 119.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 23.0N 120.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 23.0N 122.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 23.0N 124.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 23.0N 127.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 117.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z $$ FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN ** WTNT45 KNHC 252042 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 500 PM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006 REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO. THE AIRCRAFT FOUND 48 KT WINDS AT A FLIGHT LEVEL OF 1000 FT ABOUT 40 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...ALONG WITH A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004 MB. THIS WIND WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT A 40 KT INTENSITY. HOWEVER...THE CENTER WAS COMPLETELY EXPOSED AT THAT TIME...AND THE 48 KT WINDS WERE NOT IN SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. THUS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO A MORE CONSERVATIVE 35 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE EXPOSED CENTER IS TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND THE NEW INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 285/14. OTHERWISE... THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OR THE TRACK FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 72 HR. ERNESTO IS SOUTH OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM MOVING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO WITH A TIGHT CLUSTERING OF TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE WESTERN END OF CUBA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL WHICH CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A TRACK OVER THE LENGTH OF CUBA. SOME SPREAD APPEARS IN THE GUIDANCE AFTER 72 HR...WITH THE GFS BUILDING THE RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO ENOUGH TO TURN ERNESTO WESTWARD...WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVING ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS FOR THE CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWARD. THE UKMET FORECASTS A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 120 HR...WHILE THE NOGAPS STALLS ERNESTO OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NORTH OF...BUT PARALLEL TO...THE PREVIOUS TRACK FOR THE FIRST 72 HR BASED ON THE NEW POSITION AND MOTION. IT THEN CALLS FOR A SLOWER NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO THE GUIDANCE SPREAD. SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW JUST NORTHWEST OF ERNESTO. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE CURRENT SHEAR WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 12 HR OR SO...WITH TRANSIENT BURSTS OF STRONG CONVECTION LIKELY. AFTER THAT...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL FORECAST AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OR ANTICYCLONE TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. WHILE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS...PARTICULARLY IN THE EXACT POSITION OF THE ANTICYCLONE AND A SOUTHWARD-MOVING CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS ON ITS NORTH SIDE...THE SHEAR IS LIKELY TO DECREASE ENOUGH TO ALLOW ERNESTO TO STRENGTHEN. THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING FOR THE FIRST 24-36 HR...WITH SOMEWHAT FASTER STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER. THE NEW FORECAST CALLS FOR MORE STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST DUE TO THE FORECAST UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AT 96 AND 120 HR. ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS AND SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH AFTER 96 HR...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT ERNESTO COULD BE MUCH STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/2100Z 14.3N 67.6W 35 KT 12HR VT 26/0600Z 15.0N 69.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 26/1800Z 16.0N 72.2W 40 KT 36HR VT 27/0600Z 17.0N 74.7W 45 KT 48HR VT 27/1800Z 18.0N 77.2W 55 KT...OVER JAMAICA 72HR VT 28/1800Z 20.5N 82.0W 65 KT...OVER WATER 96HR VT 29/1800Z 23.0N 85.5W 70 KT 120HR VT 30/1800Z 24.5N 88.0W 75 KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTPZ45 KNHC 252044 *** TCDEP5 HURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006 200 PM PDT FRI AUG 25 2006 IN ADDITION TO WARMING CLOUDS TOPS...ILEANA IS BEGINNING TO LOSE ITS STRUCTURE WITH THE EYE BECOMING GRADUALLY LESS DEFINED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 65 KT BASED AN AVERAGE OF THE DVORAK T AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST REASONING. ILEANA IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER SSTS AND ENTRAINS DRY STABLE AIR. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HR AND BE DISSIPATED BY 120 HR. ILEANA HAS WOBBLED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK YIELDING A SHORT-TERM MOTION OF ABOUT 320/5. A LONGER TERM MOTION OF 305/5 IS USED FOR THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE. IGNORING THE GFS AND ITS INFLUENCE ON THE CONSENSUS-BASED TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT ILEANA SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN WEST AS IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHALLOW OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SAME GENERAL REASONING AND IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN LINE WITH THE SHALLOW BAM MODEL. THE 12 FT SEAS RADII WERE ADJUSTED OUTWARD IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT BASED ON REPORTS FROM SHIP DGSR. THE 34 KT WIND RADII WERE CONTRACTED IN ALL QUADRANTS BASED ON THE LAST QUIKSCAT DATA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/2100Z 22.0N 117.2W 65 KT 12HR VT 26/0600Z 22.4N 117.9W 55 KT 24HR VT 26/1800Z 22.8N 119.1W 45 KT 36HR VT 27/0600Z 23.0N 120.4W 35 KT 48HR VT 27/1800Z 23.0N 122.0W 30 KT 72HR VT 28/1800Z 23.0N 124.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 29/1800Z 23.0N 127.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN ** WTCA45 TJSJ 252049 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 5 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL052006 500 PM AST VIERNES 25 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...EL AVION CAZA HURACANES DETERMINA QUE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL CINCO SE HA CONVERTIDO EN LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO... A LAS 5 PM AST...2100Z...EL GOBIERNO DE HAITI HA EMITIDO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA EL SUROESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE HAITI DESDE LA FRONTERA DE HAITI Y REPUBLICA DOMINICANA HACIA EL OESTE A LA PARTE SUROESTE DE HAITI. ADEMAS A LAS 5 PM AST...EL GOBIERNO DE JAMAICA HA EMITIDO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA JAMAICA. INTERESES EN LAS ISLAS CAYMAN Y EL OESTE DE CUBA DEBEN VIGILAR EL PROGRESO DE ERNESTO. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS...FAVOR DE MONITOREAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 500 PM AST...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 14.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 67.6 OESTE O COMO A 300 MILLAS...485 KILOMETROS...AL SUR SUROESTE DE SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO Y COMO 660 MILLAS...1065 KILOMETROS...ESTE-SURESTE DE KINGSTON JAMAICA. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 16 MPH....26 KILOMETROS...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 40 MPH...65 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUNA INTENSIFICACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 90 MILLAS...150 KILOMETROS DESDE EL CENTRO. LA ULTIMA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA REPORTADA POR UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA FUERZA AEREA FUE DE 1004 MILIBARAS...29.65 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE LAS ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA SEAN DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS EN ASOCIACION CON ERNESTO A TRAVES DE PORCIONES DE LA ESPANOLA Y JAMAICA...Y DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS DE LLUVIA EN PARTES DE PUERTO RICO Y LAS ANTILLAS HOLANDESAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM AST...14.3 NORTE...67.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 16 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 1004 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 PM AST SEGUIDA POR UNA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 PM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN ** WTCA44 TJSJ 252052 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL DEBBY ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 17 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL042006 500 PM AST VIERNES 25 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...DEBBY CONTINUA MOVIENDOSE AL OESTE NOROESTE SOBRE LAS AGUAS MAR ABIERTO... A LAS 500 PM AST...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL DEBBY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 24.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 44.7 OESTE O COMO A 1470 MILLAS...2370 KILOMETROS...AL OESTE-NOROESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE. DEBBY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 17 MPH...28 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 40 MPH...65 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA POCO CAMBIO EN SU INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 50 MILLAS...85 KILOMETROS...DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1003 MILIBARAS...29.62 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 PM AST...24.9 NORTE...44.7 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 17 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1003 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1100 PM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADO ROBERTS/BEVEN ** WTPA22 PHFO 252053 *** TCMCP2 HURRICANE IOKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 2100 UTC FRI AUG 25 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 175.4W AT 25/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 921 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 35SE 30SW 60NW. 50 KT.......120NE 80SE 75SW 120NW. 34 KT.......180NE 120SE 115SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..220NE 140SE 120SW 220NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 175.4W AT 25/2100Z AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 175.1W FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 19.3N 176.2W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 30SE 25SW 55NW. 50 KT...110NE 75SE 70SW 110NW. 34 KT...170NE 110SE 105SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 19.2N 177.7W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 30SE 25SW 55NW. 50 KT...110NE 75SE 70SW 110NW. 34 KT...170NE 110SE 105SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 18.7N 179.2W MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 30SE 35SW 60NW. 50 KT...120NE 80SE 75SW 120NW. 34 KT...180NE 115SE 120SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.1N 179.2E MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 50 KT...120NE 80SE 75SW 120NW. 34 KT...180NE 115SE 120SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 17.8N 176.3E MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 50 KT...110NE 75SE 70SW 110NW. 34 KT...170NE 110SE 105SW 170NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 19.7N 173.5E MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 22.8N 171.3E MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 175.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BURKE ** WTPA32 PHFO 252053 *** TCPCP2 BULLETIN HURRICANE IOKE ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 1100 AM HST FRI AUG 25 2006 AT 1100 AM HST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 175.4 WEST OR ABOUT 425 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND AND ABOUT 635 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MIDWAY ISLAND. IOKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS...BEFORE GRADUALLY TURNING TOWARD THE WEST SOUTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 921 MB...27.20 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM HST POSITION...19.2 N...175.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...921 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM HST. $$ FORECASTER BURKE ** WTNT44 KNHC 252057 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 500 PM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006 NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN THIS AFTERNOON...AS STRONG SOUTHERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO DISPLACE THE CIRCULATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK SATELLITE FINAL-T NUMBERS ARE DOWN TO 30 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES...AND A NOAA P-3 FLYING THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER EXPERIMENT REPORTED A SURFACE WIND OF 35 KT WITHIN THE REMAINING CONVECTION. BASED ON THE DROPSONDE REPORT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL HOLD AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...WHICH MAINTAINS 35 KT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IS EXPECTED THROUGH 72 HOURS...AS DEBBY INTERACTS WITH THE APPROACHING BAROCLINIC SYSTEM. DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY DAY 3...THEN ULTIMATELY BECOME ABSORBED BY THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 305/15. DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT DEBBY WILL MOVE BENEATH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHICH SHOULD INFLUENCE A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST... FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN FORWARD MOTION THROUGH THE REMAINING FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT AND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE GUNA CONSENSUS AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/2100Z 24.9N 44.7W 35 KT 12HR VT 26/0600Z 26.2N 46.4W 35 KT 24HR VT 26/1800Z 28.2N 48.2W 35 KT 36HR VT 27/0600Z 30.3N 49.1W 40 KT 48HR VT 27/1800Z 32.7N 48.5W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 28/1800Z 39.0N 43.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 29/1800Z 46.0N 34.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 30/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN ** WTPA42 PHFO 252057 *** TCDCP2 HURRICANE IOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 1100 AM HST FRI AUG 25 2006 THE CLOUD PATTERN OF HURRICANE IOKE REMAINS IMPRESSIVE. THE WELL-DEVELOPED EYE HAS COOLED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS DUE TO SOME CLOUD INTRUSION. THE SYSTEM WAS RATHER SYMMETRICAL AT 18Z BUT HAS SHOWN SOME EROSION OF THE EYEWALL IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT IN THE LAST COUPLE OF SATELLITE IMAGES. THIS MAY BE DUE TO AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE BEGINNING TO TAKE PLACE. SHEAR DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A FACTOR AS THE SYSTEM IS PRESENTLY ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FOR 25/1730Z RANGED FROM 6.0 TO 7.0...OR 115 TO 140KT. AODT ESTIMATES WERE 6.4. WE HAVE KEPT THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 140 KT. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WIND RADII BUT HAVE INCREASED THE 12 FT SEAS OUT A BIT FURTHER DUE TO THE SYSTEMS SLOW MOVEMENT. THE MODEL FORECASTS REMAIN IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS...BAMS...BAMM...AND BAMD AS BEING THE OUTLIERS. LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK OUT THROUGH 72 HOURS WITH JUST A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE LEFT BEYOND 72 HOURS TO BETTER MATCH MODEL CONSENSUS. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS IOKE CROSSING THE DATELINE AND BECOMING A TYPHOON AROUND 27/12Z. MOST MODELS KEEP IOKE RATHER STRONG AND ACTUALLY SHOW SOME INTENSIFICATION BEYOND 36 HOURS. SHEAR IS NOT INDICATED TO BE MUCH OF A FACTOR AT LEAST THROUGH 72 HOURS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE AND ACTUALLY WARM TO NEAR 29C WEST OF 180. WE NOW FORECAST ONLY MINOR UP AND DOWN INTENSITY CHANGES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD THOUGH KEEP INTENSITIES SLIGHTLY BELOW MOST GUIDANCE VALUES. EARLIER TODAY HURRICANE IOKE STRENGTHENED TO CATEGORY 5 INTENSITY WITH WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 160 MPH. THIS IS THE FIFTH CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE ON RECORD IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...AND THE FIRST ONE SINCE 1994. IOKE IS THE FIRST STORM TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC AND ACHIEVE CATEGORY 5 STATUS. JOHN...EMILIA AND GILMA MOVED IN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC BEFORE STRENGTHENING...WHILE PATSY CAME IN FROM THE WEST PACIFIC. AT THE SAME TIME...THE ESTIMATED SURFACE PRESSURE FROM SATELLITE ANALYSIS WAS 921MB OR 27.20 INCHES. THIS UNOFFICIALLY IS THE LOWEST SURFACE PRESSURE FOR A SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/2100Z 19.2N 175.4W 140 KT 12HR VT 26/0600Z 19.3N 176.2W 135 KT 24HR VT 26/1800Z 19.2N 177.7W 135 KT 36HR VT 27/0600Z 18.7N 179.2W 140 KT 48HR VT 27/1800Z 18.1N 179.2E 140 KT 72HR VT 28/1800Z 17.8N 176.3E 135 KT 96HR VT 29/1800Z 19.7N 173.5E 135 KT 120HR VT 30/1800Z 22.8N 171.3E 130 KT $$ FORECASTER BURKE ** WTPN33 PHNC 252200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/252135AUG2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 10E (ILEANA) WARNING NR 018 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 251800Z --- NEAR 22.0N 117.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.0N 117.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 22.4N 117.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 22.8N 119.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 23.0N 120.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 23.0N 122.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 23.0N 124.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 23.0N 127.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT --- REMARKS: 252200Z POSITION NEAR 22.1N 117.4W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260400Z, 261000Z, 261600Z AND 262200Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 01C (IOKE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PHNC 252200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/252140AUG2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 01C (IOKE) WARNING NR 024 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 251800Z --- NEAR 19.2N 175.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 175.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 19.3N 176.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 19.2N 177.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 18.7N 179.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 18.1N 179.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 17.8N 176.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 19.7N 173.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 22.8N 171.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT --- REMARKS: 252200Z POSITION NEAR 19.2N 175.7W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260400Z, 261000Z, 261600Z AND 262200Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 10E (ILEANA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTNT35 KNHC 252359 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 800 PM AST FRI AUG 25 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWEST TIP OF HAITI. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.4 WEST OR ABOUT 285 MILES...460 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND ABOUT 600 MILES...965 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR ...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL PASSING NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA ON SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ERNESTO ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA...WITH 1-3 INCHES EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE DUTCH NETHERLAND ANTILLES. REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...14.5 N...68.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB