** WTSR20 WSSS 250600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPA22 PHFO 251434 *** TCMCP2 HURRICANE IOKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 1500 UTC FRI AUG 25 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 175.1W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 921 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 35SE 30SW 55NW. 50 KT.......120NE 80SE 75SW 110NW. 34 KT.......180NE 120SE 115SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 115SW 170NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 175.1W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 174.8W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 19.5N 176.1W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 30SE 25SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 75SE 70SW 100NW. 34 KT...170NE 110SE 105SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 19.5N 177.4W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 25SE 20SW 45NW. 50 KT...105NE 70SE 65SW 95NW. 34 KT...165NE 105SE 100SW 155NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 19.1N 178.8W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 20SE 20SW 45NW. 50 KT...100NE 65SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT...160NE 100SE 95SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.4N 179.8E MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 50 KT... 95NE 60SE 60SW 95NW. 34 KT...155NE 95SE 95SW 155NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.6N 177.1E MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 55SE 55SW 90NW. 34 KT...150NE 90SE 90SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 18.9N 174.3E MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 22.0N 172.1E MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 175.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER DONALDSON ** WTNT25 KNHC 251434 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1500 UTC FRI AUG 25 2006 INTERESTS IN JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEPRESSION. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 66.4W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 66.4W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 65.9W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 14.2N 68.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 15.0N 71.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 25SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 15.9N 73.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 16.9N 76.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.0N 80.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 21.5N 84.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 23.5N 87.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 66.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTNT35 KNHC 251434 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 AM AST FRI AUG 25 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE CONTINUING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NOT YET A TROPICAL STORM... INTERESTS IN JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEPRESSION. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.4 WEST OR ABOUT 340 MILES...545 KM...SOUTH OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT 760 MILES...1220 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION THIS AFTERNOON. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DUTCH NETHERLAND ANTILLES...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA. REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...13.5 N...66.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTPA32 PHFO 251437 *** TCPCP2 BULLETIN HURRICANE IOKE ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 500 AM HST FRI AUG 25 2006 AT 500 AM HST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 175.1 WEST OR ABOUT 410 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND AND ABOUT 630 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MIDWAY ISLAND. IOKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE HURRICANE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO WEST SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...THEN SHIFT BACK TO WEST NORTHWEST AFTER 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 921 MB...27.20 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 AM HST POSITION...19.3 N...175.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...921 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM HST. $$ FORECASTER DONALDSON ** WTNT24 KNHC 251443 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 1500 UTC FRI AUG 25 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 43.3W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 45NE 20SE 20SW 45NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 43.3W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 42.8W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 25.3N 45.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 20SE 20SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 27.2N 47.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 20SE 20SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 29.2N 49.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 20SE 20SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 31.2N 49.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 36.0N 47.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 65NE 55SE 50SW 65NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 42.0N 42.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 48.0N 34.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.9N 43.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN ** WTPZ45 KNHC 251448 *** TCDEP5 HURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006 800 AM PDT FRI AUG 25 2006 ILEANA IS RETAINING GOOD STRUCTURE WITH A 20 NM WIDE EYE OBSERVED IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...CLOUDS TOPS AROUND THE CENTER CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM AND DVORAK T NUMBERS ARE DECREASING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE LOWERED TO 70 KT...WHICH IS AN AVERAGE OF THE DVORAK T AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS. THIS AVERAGE IS TYPICALLY USED DURING THE WEAKENING PHASE WHEN CI NUMBERS ARE CONSTRAINED BY DVORAK RULES. WITH VERY LITTLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FORECAST...ILEANA MAY WEAKEN A LITTLE SLOWER THAN INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES FOR THE FIRST 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER SSTS AND ENTRAINS DRY STABLE AIR. IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. THE HURRICANE HAS SLOWED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST 6-12 HOURS AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 300/4 KT. THE GFS WHICH INITIALIZED THE HURRICANE FAR TOO WEAK....SEEMS UNREASONABLE WITH ITS ALMOST IMMEDIATE SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE REMAINDER OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS DEPICT A STRONGER SYSTEM THAT TRACKS SLOWLY NORTHWEST DURING THE FIRST 24-36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO AND WAS ADJUSTED A LITTLE NORTHWARD. THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW A WESTWARD BEND LATER IN THE PERIOD AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOMES AN INCREASINGLY SHALLOW SYSTEM. THE 12 FT SEA RADII WERE EXPANDED BASED ON EARLIER OBSERVATIONS FROM TWO SHIPS OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/1500Z 21.6N 116.9W 70 KT 12HR VT 26/0000Z 21.9N 117.6W 65 KT 24HR VT 26/1200Z 22.1N 118.7W 55 KT 36HR VT 27/0000Z 22.2N 119.7W 40 KT 48HR VT 27/1200Z 22.2N 120.7W 30 KT 72HR VT 28/1200Z 22.0N 122.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 29/1200Z 21.5N 124.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN/BEVEN ** WTPZ25 KNHC 251448 *** TCMEP5 HURRICANE ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006 1500 UTC FRI AUG 25 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 116.9W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. 34 KT.......120NE 110SE 80SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..225NE 225SE 150SW 175NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 116.9W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 116.7W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 21.9N 117.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 45NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 22.1N 118.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 22.2N 119.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 22.2N 120.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 22.0N 122.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 21.5N 124.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 116.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN/BEVEN ** WTNT44 KNHC 251448 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006 VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICT THAT DEBBY CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITHIN THE MODERATE SOUTHERLY SHEAR...WHICH IS DISPLACING THE CIRCULATION WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE RATHER LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE DOWN TO 25 AND 35 KT...A CIRA AMSU-A INTENSITY ESTIMATE CHIMED IN AT 37 KT...AND THIS MORNING'S 0822Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS REVEALED A FEW 40 KT VECTORS. AS A COMPROMISE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS WEIGHED HEAVILY ON THE SHIPS...WHICH SUGGESTS LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS...THEN A GRADUAL INCREASE AS DEBBY INTERACTS WITH THE APPROACHING BAROCLINIC SYSTEM. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 310/15. LARGE SCALE MODELS SUGGEST TWO POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS ONCE DEBBY MOVES BENEATH THE WESTERLIES. THE UKMET AND THE GFS INDICATE ABSORPTION BY A LARGER NON-TROPICAL LOW APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST BY DAY 3 AND 4 RESPECTIVELY...WHILE THE OTHER AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GUNA CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 72 HOURS. BEYOND DAY 3...THE FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND EMPHASIZES THE MODELS SUGGESTING AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/1500Z 23.9N 43.3W 35 KT 12HR VT 26/0000Z 25.3N 45.3W 35 KT 24HR VT 26/1200Z 27.2N 47.6W 35 KT 36HR VT 27/0000Z 29.2N 49.1W 40 KT 48HR VT 27/1200Z 31.2N 49.6W 45 KT 72HR VT 28/1200Z 36.0N 47.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 29/1200Z 42.0N 42.0W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 30/1200Z 48.0N 34.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN ** WTNT34 KNHC 251455 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 1100 AM AST FRI AUG 25 2006 ...DEBBY WEAKENING OVER OPEN WATERS... AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.3 WEST OR ABOUT 1365 MILES...2195 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. DEBBY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...23.9 N...43.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN ** WTNT45 KNHC 251457 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006 THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IS VERY HARD TO LOCATE THIS MORNING. MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED WEST OF THE LARGE CONVECTIVE MASS THAT HAS PERSISTED THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACKS. HOWEVER...A 12Z OBSERVATION FROM SHIP 6ZXG SUGGEST THE CENTER IS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A MORE WESTWARD MOTION AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED. ANIMATION OF VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS NOT YET HELPED RESOLVE THIS...AS IT IS DIFFICULT TO SEE WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS. THE INITIAL POSITION WILL BE CLOSER TO THAT OF THE MICROWAVE DATA. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 35-45 KT... BUT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE CENTER POSITION THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN A DEPRESSION ON THIS PACKAGE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 280/13...SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN EARLIER. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC REASONING OR THE TRACK FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 72-96 HR. THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM MOVING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO WITH A TIGHT CLUSTERING OF TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL WHICH CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A TRACK OVER CUBA. SOME SPREAD APPEARS IN THE GUIDANCE AFTER 96 HR...WITH THE GFS AND NOGAPS BUILDING THE RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO ENOUGH TO TURN THE CYCLONE WESTWARD...WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVING ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS FOR THE CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWARD. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE FOR THE FIRST 96 HR...THEN SLOWS THE SYSTEM DOWN IN RESPONSE TO THE GUIDANCE SPREAD. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PERHAPS BECOMING LESS TRICKY. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE WESTWARD AND ALLOW AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SHOULD THIS HAPPEN...AS SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN KNOWN TO MOVE UPPER-LEVEL LOWS TOO QUICKLY WESTWARD...IT WOULD REDUCE THE CURRENT 15-20 KT SHEAR AND PRODUCE A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR THE DEPRESSION TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 60 HR AND REACH 87 KT BY 120 HR. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE OLD FORECAST...CALLING FOR THE CYCLONE TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 72 HR. HOWEVER...IF THE SHEAR DECREASES AS MUCH AS FORECAST...THE CYCLONE COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST AFTER 72 HR. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION THIS AFTERNOON. IF THE AIRCRAFT FINDS THE CENTER IN A DIFFERENT LOCATION...SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BE NECESSARY ON THE NEXT ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/1500Z 13.5N 66.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 26/0000Z 14.2N 68.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 26/1200Z 15.0N 71.1W 40 KT 36HR VT 27/0000Z 15.9N 73.6W 45 KT 48HR VT 27/1200Z 16.9N 76.0W 55 KT 72HR VT 28/1200Z 19.0N 80.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 29/1200Z 21.5N 84.5W 65 KT 120HR VT 30/1200Z 23.5N 87.5W 65 KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTPA42 PHFO 251504 *** TCDCP2 HURRICANE IOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 500 AM HST FRI AUG 25 2006 THE CLOUD PATTERN OF HURRICANE IOKE RAPIDLY HAS RAPIDLY WEAKENED... THEN RE-INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WELL-DEVELOPED AND VERY WARM EYE COOLED AND THE VERY COLD AND SYMMETRICAL SURROUNDING TOPS WARMED AND BECAME ELONGATED ALONG A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AXIS THROUGH 10Z. SINCE 10Z...THE SURROUNDING TOPS HAVE COOLED AND BECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL AND THE EYE HAS BECOME WARMER. PART OF THESE CHANGES MAY HAVE BEEN DUE TO AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE BUT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SEEMS TO SHOW THAT SHEAR WAS ALSO A FACTOR. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FOR 25/1130Z RANGED FROM 6.0 TO 7.0...OR 115 TO 140KT. AODT ESTIMATES WERE 5.8 AND 6.7. WE HAVE KEPT THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 140 KT. WE HAVE DECREASED THE WIND RADII A BIT BASED ON A 0723Z QUIKSCAT PASS. THE MODEL FORECASTS REMAIN IN CLOSE AGREEMENT...IF NOT QUITE AS CLOSE AS EARLIER. WE HAVE ADJUSTED THE INITIAL MOTION SLIGHTLY SOUTH TO BETTER MATCH THE RECENT MOTION OF THE HURRICANE. THE TRACK GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO WEST SOUTHWEST...THEN BACK TO WEST NORTHWEST AFTER 72 HOURS. WE HAVE SHIFTED THE TRACK FARTHER WEST AFTER 72 HOURS TO BETTER MATCH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS IOKE CROSSING THE DATELINE AND BECOMING A TYPHOON SHORTLY AFTER 27/06Z. SHEAR OVER INOKE REMAINS QUITE LOW WITH THE CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSIS SHOWING ONLY 1.8 M/S SHEAR. WHILE THE CIMSS ANALYSES CONSISTENTLY SHOWED THE ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION THROUGH 25/06Z...THE 25/12Z OUTLOOK NOW SHOWS THE ENVIRONMENT UNFAVORABLE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WE HAVE MODIFIED OUR INTENSITY FORECAST TO SHOW SLOW WEAKENING AT 1/2 T-NUMBER PER DAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/1500Z 19.3N 175.1W 140 KT 12HR VT 26/0000Z 19.5N 176.1W 135 KT 24HR VT 26/1200Z 19.5N 177.4W 130 KT 36HR VT 27/0000Z 19.1N 178.8W 125 KT 48HR VT 27/1200Z 18.4N 179.8E 120 KT 72HR VT 28/1200Z 17.6N 177.1E 110 KT 96HR VT 29/1200Z 18.9N 174.3E 100 KT 120HR VT 30/1200Z 22.0N 172.1E 90 KT $$ FORECASTER DONALDSON ** WTCA45 TJSJ 251523 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL CINCO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 4 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 AM AST VIERNES 25 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...DEPRESION TROPICAL CINCO CONTINUA MOVIENDOSE A TRAVES DEL MAR CARIBE...TODAVIA NO ES UNA TORMENTA TROPICAL... INTERESES EN JAMAICA Y LAS ISLAS CAYMAN DEBEN VIGILAR EL PROGRESO DE ESTA DEPRESION. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS...FAVOR DE VIGILAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU PROPIA OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 1100 AM AST...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL CINCO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 13.5 NORTE...LONGITUD 66.4 OESTE O COMO A 340 MILLAS...545 KILOMETROS...AL SUR DE SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO Y COMO 760 MILLAS...1220 KILOMETROS...ESTE-SURESTE DE KINGSTON JAMAICA. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH.... SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUNA INTENSIFICACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS Y LA DEPRESION PODRIA TORNARSE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL MAS TARDE HOY O ESTA NOCHE. UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA FUERZA AEREA ESTA EN ITINERARIO PARA INVESTIGAR LA DEPRESION ESTA TARDE. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1005 MILIBARAS...29.68 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE LAS ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA SEAN DE 1 A 2 PULGADAS EN ASOCIACION CON LA DEPRESION...A TRAVES DE PORCIONES DE LAS ANTILLAS HOLANDESAS...PUERTO RICO Y LA ESPANOLA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM AST...13.5 NORTE...66.4 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 1005 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 PM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN ** WTPA42 PHFO 251619 CCA *** TCDCP2 HURRICANE IOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 500 AM HST FRI AUG 25 2006 THE CLOUD PATTERN OF HURRICANE IOKE RAPIDLY WEAKENED...THEN RE-INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WELL-DEVELOPED AND VERY WARM EYE COOLED AND THE VERY COLD AND SYMMETRICAL SURROUNDING TOPS WARMED AND BECAME ELONGATED ALONG A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AXIS THROUGH 10Z. SINCE 10Z...THE SURROUNDING TOPS HAVE COOLED AND BECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL AND THE EYE HAS BECOME WARMER. PART OF THESE CHANGES MAY HAVE BEEN DUE TO AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE BUT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SEEMS TO SHOW THAT SHEAR WAS ALSO A FACTOR. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FOR 25/1130Z RANGED FROM 6.0 TO 7.0...OR 115 TO 140KT. AODT ESTIMATES WERE 5.8 AND 6.7. WE HAVE KEPT THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 140 KT. WE HAVE DECREASED THE WIND RADII A BIT BASED ON A 0723Z QUIKSCAT PASS. THE MODEL FORECASTS REMAIN IN CLOSE AGREEMENT...IF NOT QUITE AS CLOSE AS EARLIER. WE HAVE ADJUSTED THE INITIAL MOTION SLIGHTLY SOUTH TO BETTER MATCH THE RECENT MOTION OF THE HURRICANE. THE TRACK GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO WEST SOUTHWEST...THEN BACK TO WEST NORTHWEST AFTER 72 HOURS. WE HAVE SHIFTED THE TRACK FARTHER WEST AFTER 72 HOURS TO BETTER MATCH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS IOKE CROSSING THE DATELINE AND BECOMING A TYPHOON SHORTLY AFTER 27/06Z. SHEAR OVER IOKE REMAINS QUITE LOW WITH THE CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSIS SHOWING ONLY 1.8 M/S SHEAR. WHILE THE CIMSS ANALYSES CONSISTENTLY SHOWED THE ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION THROUGH 25/06Z...THE 25/12Z OUTLOOK NOW SHOWS THE ENVIRONMENT UNFAVORABLE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WE HAVE MODIFIED OUR INTENSITY FORECAST TO SHOW SLOW WEAKENING AT 1/2 T-NUMBER PER DAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/1500Z 19.3N 175.1W 140 KT 12HR VT 26/0000Z 19.5N 176.1W 135 KT 24HR VT 26/1200Z 19.5N 177.4W 130 KT 36HR VT 27/0000Z 19.1N 178.8W 125 KT 48HR VT 27/1200Z 18.4N 179.8E 120 KT 72HR VT 28/1200Z 17.6N 177.1E 110 KT 96HR VT 29/1200Z 18.9N 174.3E 100 KT 120HR VT 30/1200Z 22.0N 172.1E 90 KT $$ FORECASTER DONALDSON ** WTNT80 EGRR 251705 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 25.08.2006 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ANALYSED POSITION : 23.1N 42.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 25.08.2006 23.1N 42.6W WEAK 00UTC 26.08.2006 25.7N 45.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.08.2006 27.5N 47.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.08.2006 29.4N 48.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.08.2006 31.8N 48.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.08.2006 35.1N 45.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 28.08.2006 40.7N 43.1W EXTRA TROPICAL TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ANALYSED POSITION : 13.0N 66.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 25.08.2006 13.0N 66.0W WEAK 00UTC 26.08.2006 14.4N 68.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.08.2006 15.6N 71.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.08.2006 15.9N 74.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.08.2006 16.9N 77.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.08.2006 17.7N 80.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.08.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE ILEANA ANALYSED POSITION : 21.3N 116.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 25.08.2006 21.3N 116.7W MODERATE 00UTC 26.08.2006 21.7N 117.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.08.2006 22.3N 118.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.08.2006 23.0N 119.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.08.2006 23.4N 120.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.08.2006 23.4N 121.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.08.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE IOKE ANALYSED POSITION : 19.3N 175.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP012006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 25.08.2006 19.3N 175.1W STRONG 00UTC 26.08.2006 19.4N 176.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.08.2006 19.8N 177.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.08.2006 19.3N 179.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.08.2006 18.8N 178.5E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.08.2006 18.1N 176.9E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.08.2006 17.8N 175.3E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.08.2006 17.8N 173.6E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.08.2006 18.2N 172.5E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.08.2006 19.0N 171.4E STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 30.08.2006 20.4N 170.7E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 31.08.2006 21.3N 170.0E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 31.08.2006 22.4N 169.0E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 251705