** WTIN20 DEMS 250632 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 25-08-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTH ANDAMAN SEA AND PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND EXTREME SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL AND CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 29 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ==== ** WTPA22 PHFO 250830 *** TCMCP2 HURRICANE IOKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 0900 UTC FRI AUG 25 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 174.5W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 921 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT. 64 KT.......100NE 50SE 50SW 100NW. 50 KT.......150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW. 34 KT.......200NE 150SE 150SW 200NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 150SE 150SW 200NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 174.5W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 174.2W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 19.5N 175.5W MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 64 KT...100NE 50SE 50SW 100NW. 50 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW. 34 KT...200NE 150SE 150SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 19.7N 176.9W MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 64 KT...100NE 50SE 50SW 100NW. 50 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW. 34 KT...200NE 150SE 150SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 19.5N 178.1W MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 64 KT...100NE 50SE 50SW 100NW. 50 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW. 34 KT...200NE 150SE 150SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 18.8N 179.5W MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 50 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW. 34 KT...200NE 150SE 150SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 17.8N 177.8E MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 50 KT...140NE 95SE 95SW 140NW. 34 KT...180NE 120SE 120SW 180NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 18.4N 175.2E MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 21.1N 173.4E MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 174.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z $$ FORECASTER DONALDSON ** WTPA32 PHFO 250835 *** TCPCP2 BULLETIN HURRICANE IOKE ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 1100 PM HST THU AUG 24 2006 AT 1100 PM HST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 174.5 WEST OR ABOUT 370 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND AND ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MIDWAY ISLAND. IOKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE HURRICANE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO WEST SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...THEN SHIFT BACK TO WEST NORTHWEST AFTER 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 921 MB...27.20 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM HST POSITION...19.2 N...174.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...921 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM HST. $$ FORECASTER DONALDSON ** WTNT45 KNHC 250835 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 500 AM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006 DESPITE WESTERLY SHEAR... THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE APPROACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. DEEP CONVECTION HAS INTENSIFIED NEAR THE CENTER WITH IMPROVING BANDING FEATURES IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER IT APPEARS THE CENTER IS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS... AS SUGGESTED BY A NOTCH IN THE DEEP CONVECTION PATTERN ON NIGHT-VIS SATELLITE IMAGES. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS RANGE FROM 35-45 KT BUT ARE A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. WITH THE UNCERTAINITY IN INITIAL POSITION.. 30 KT WILL BE KEPT UNTIL VISIBLE IMAGES ALLOW US TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON WHERE THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED. THE TRACK FORECAST SEEMS LIKE THE EASIER PART OF THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. THE DEPRESSION IS SPEEDING WESTWARD AT ABOUT THE SAME RATE... 280/17. MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD REMAIN STRONG OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN... KEEPING THE SYSTEM MOVING IN A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NOGAPS/UKMET SHOW STRONGER RIDGING AND A WEAKER TROPICAL CYCLONE... LEADING TO A TRACK CLOSER TO YUCATAN IN ABOUT 5 DAYS. THE GFS AND GFDL TEMPORARILY WEAKEN THE RIDGE IN A FEW DAYS... WHICH ALLOW A STRONGER SYSTEM TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST CLOSER TO CUBA. I'M INCLINED TO STICK CLOSER TO THE FIRST OPTION ... LEADING TO A SMALL WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE TRACK FORECAST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS TRICKY TO SAY THE LEAST. FIRST OF ALL... THE SYSTEM HAS TO SURVIVE THE STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR IT WILL BE EXPERIENCING FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS IS BY NO MEANS CERTAIN AND IT WOULDN'T BE A HUGE SURPRISE FOR THE DEPRESSION TO DISSIPATE IN THE "GRAVEYARD" OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... LIKE SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING. HOWEVER...IF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SURVIVES...AND THIS IS A BIG IF...GLOBAL MODELS REMOVE THE SHEAR BY FRACTURING THE MID-OCEANIC TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS PATTERN CHANGE SENDS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IN 3 DAYS WHILE BUILDING UPPER RIDGING NEAR THE DEPRESSION. THIS COULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO STRENGTHEN ESPECIALLY AS IT ENTERS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. ON THE OTHER HAND... GLOBAL MODELS HAVE NOTORIOUSLY WEAKENED UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONES TOO QUICKLY IN THE PAST AND THE MID-OCEANIC TROUGH HAS BEEN QUITE PERSISTENT AND STRONGER-THAN- NORMAL IN THAT AREA THIS SEASON. AFTER SAYING ALL THIS... THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS. HOWEVER IF THE LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING MATERIALIZES IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN... TD FIVE COULD BE A LOT STRONGER THAN SHOWN BELOW IN THE LATER PERIODS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/0900Z 13.4N 65.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 25/1800Z 13.9N 67.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 26/0600Z 14.8N 70.4W 40 KT 36HR VT 26/1800Z 15.6N 72.8W 45 KT 48HR VT 27/0600Z 16.5N 75.0W 55 KT 72HR VT 28/0600Z 18.5N 79.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 29/0600Z 21.0N 84.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 30/0600Z 23.5N 87.5W 65 KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA ** WTNT25 KNHC 250835 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 0900 UTC FRI AUG 25 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 65.7W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 65.7W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 64.9W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 13.9N 67.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 14.8N 70.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 25SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 15.6N 72.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 16.5N 75.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 18.5N 79.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 21.0N 84.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 23.5N 87.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 65.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA ** WTNT44 KNHC 250835 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 500 AM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006 THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED BUT THE CLOUD PATTERN STILL REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED AND HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. A TRIMM PASS OVER DEBBY SHOWED THAT THE CYCLONE IS NOT VERTICALLY ALIGNED AND THE LOW- AND MIDDLE-LEVEL CENTERS ARE A LITTLE BIT DISPLACED. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR AFFECTING THE CYCLONE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KNOTS AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BASED ON QUIKSCAT...BUT DVORAK T-NUMBERS SUGGEST A WEAKER SYSTEM. DEBBY IS ABOUT TO MOVE OVER WARMER WATERS AND THAT COULD HELP THE CYCLONE TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS THE GFDL AND THE SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS THAT MAKE DEBBY A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM AFTER RECURVATURE. DEBBY CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY REACH A WEAKNESS CAUSED BY AN APPROACHING TROUGH AND RECURVATURE SHOULD OCCUR IN ABOUT 48 TO 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...DEBBY SHOULD MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OR ABSORBED BY A LARGER FRONTAL LOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH IN FACT...CONTINUES TO BE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED. THIS INCREASES THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/0900Z 22.9N 42.3W 45 KT 12HR VT 25/1800Z 24.1N 44.6W 45 KT 24HR VT 26/0600Z 25.8N 47.3W 45 KT 36HR VT 26/1800Z 28.0N 49.5W 50 KT 48HR VT 27/0600Z 30.0N 50.5W 55 KT 72HR VT 28/0600Z 33.5N 50.0W 55 KT 96HR VT 29/0600Z 39.0N 43.0W 55 KT...BECOMING-EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 30/0600Z 45.0N 35.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTNT24 KNHC 250835 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 0900 UTC FRI AUG 25 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 42.3W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 45NE 20SE 20SW 45NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 42.3W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 41.6W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 24.1N 44.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 20SE 20SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 25.8N 47.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 20SE 20SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 28.0N 49.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 30.0N 50.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 33.5N 50.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 39.0N 43.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 45.0N 35.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 42.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTPZ25 KNHC 250835 *** TCMEP5 HURRICANE ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006 0900 UTC FRI AUG 25 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 116.7W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. 34 KT.......130NE 110SE 80SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..175NE 175SE 125SW 125NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 116.7W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 116.4W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 21.6N 117.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT... 45NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...115NE 95SE 75SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 22.0N 118.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 65SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 22.1N 119.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 22.0N 120.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 21.6N 122.2W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 21.0N 124.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N 116.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z $$ FORECASTER FIORINO/AVILA ** WTNT34 KNHC 250835 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 500 AM AST FRI AUG 25 2006 ...DEBBY EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER OPEN WATERS... AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.3 WEST OR ABOUT 1285 MILES...2065 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. DEBBY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...22.9 N...42.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTNT35 KNHC 250836 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 500 AM AST FRI AUG 25 2006 ...DEPRESSION ALMOST A TROPICAL STORM... AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.7 WEST OR ABOUT 345 MILES...560 KM... SOUTH OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH AND A MOTION GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM SHIP OBSERVATIONS IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...13.4 N...65.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA ** WTPZ45 KNHC 250850 *** TCDEP5 HURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006 200 AM PDT FRI AUG 25 2006 HURRICANE ILEANA HAS RESUMED THE WEAKENING PROCESS...AFTER MAINTAINING 80 KT IN THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS. ENHANCED IR AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE EYE HAS EXPANDED AND OPENED TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH REDUCED CONVECTION NEAR THE CORE. THE OUTER EYEWALL RAINFALL STRUCTURE...DEPICTED IN THE 0405Z SSM/I 85 GHZ IMAGERY...IS REDUCED COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MICROWAVE PASSES. THERMODYNAMIC FACTORS ARE CONTROLLING INTENSITY CHANGE...COOLER SST...LESS THAN 26C...AND DRY AIR INTRUSION INTO THE NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE...DESPITE LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ILEANA IS FORECAST TO DROP BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AFTER 36 HOURS AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS. STORM MOTION HAS BECOME MORE WESTWARD...CONSEQUENTLY, OUR TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED LEFTWARD COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND FOLLOWS MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 36 HOURS. AS ILEANA BECOMES A DEPRESSION AT 48 HOURS, WE FAVOR THE ECMWF, GFS AND CANADIAN GEM SOLUTIONS. THESE MODELS WERE INITIALIZED WITH A WEAK SHALLOW CYCLONE THAT MOVES WITH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. THE 34 KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD BASED ON AN EXCELLENT 0218Z QUIKSCAT PASS, TWO EXPERIMENTAL SATELLITE-BASED ESTIMATES FROM CIRA AND CIMSS, AND 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/0900Z 21.3N 116.7W 75 KT 12HR VT 25/1800Z 21.6N 117.5W 65 KT 24HR VT 26/0600Z 22.0N 118.4W 55 KT 36HR VT 26/1800Z 22.1N 119.4W 40 KT 48HR VT 27/0600Z 22.0N 120.6W 30 KT 72HR VT 28/0600Z 21.6N 122.2W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 29/0600Z 21.0N 124.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FIORINO/AVILA ** WTPA42 PHFO 250852 *** TCDCP2 HURRICANE IOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 1100 PM HST THU AUG 24 2006 WITH LOW SHEAR AND WARM WATER...IOKE HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AND HAS BECOME EXTREMELY POWERFUL. THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM CPHC FOR 25/0530 IS T7.0...OR 140KT WITH SUBJECTIVE INTENSITIES OF 6.5 FROM JTWC AND 7.0 FROM AFWA. AODT INTENSITIES WERE 6.9 FROM CPHC AND 7.0 FROM GWC. WE HAVE BOOSTED THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 140 KT...IN LINE WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE SATELLITE ANALYSES. WE HAVE ALSO INCREASED THE WIND RADII AGAIN BASED ON A 0456Z WINDSAT PASS. THE MODEL FORECASTS REMAIN IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT AND WE HAVE ADJUSTED THE TRACK SLIGHTLY TO KEEP IT IN LINE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IOKE HAD BEEN TRACKING TOWARDS THE WEST NORTHWEST...BUT THE TRACK IS NOW BENDING TO THE WEST DUE TO AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT BUILDING NORTH OF THE HURRICANE. THE FORECAST TRACK CONTINUES BENDING TO WEST SOUTHWEST...A BIT MORE THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS THE ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO BUILD. AFTER 72 HOURS... THE TRACK SHIFTS BACK TO WEST NORTHWEST AS THE ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS WEST AND WEAKENS AND A TROUGH ALOFT STARTS TO DIG NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS IOKE CROSSING THE DATELINE AND BECOMING A TYPHOON SHORTLY AFTER 27/06Z. WE HAVE BOOSTED THE INTENSITY FORECAST AGAIN DUE TO THE RECENT RAPID DEEPENING OF THE SYSTEM. THE CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSIS SHOWS ONLY 1.1 M/S SHEAR OVR IOKE. WITH VERY LITTLE SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM... WE HAVE KEPT THE INTENSITY AT 140 KT THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKENED IT DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/0900Z 19.2N 174.5W 140 KT 12HR VT 25/1800Z 19.5N 175.5W 140 KT 24HR VT 26/0600Z 19.7N 176.9W 140 KT 36HR VT 26/1800Z 19.5N 178.1W 140 KT 48HR VT 27/0600Z 18.8N 179.5W 140 KT 72HR VT 28/0600Z 17.8N 177.8E 135 KT 96HR VT 29/0600Z 18.4N 175.2E 135 KT 120HR VT 30/0600Z 21.1N 173.4E 130 KT $$ FORECASTER DONALDSON ** WTCA44 TJSJ 250855 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL DEBBY ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 15 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL042006 500 AM AST VIERNES 25 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...SE ESPERA QUE DEBBY SE MANTENGA EN ALTA MAR... A LAS 500 AM AST...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL DEBBY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 22.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 42.3 OESTE O COMO A 1285 MILLAS...2065 KILO METROS...AL OESTE-NOROESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE. DEBBY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 17 MPH...28 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 50 MPH...85 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA POCO CAMBIO EN SU INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 50 MILLAS...85 KILOMETROS...DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1000 MILIBARAS...29.53 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 AM AST...22.9 NORTE...42.3 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 17 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1000 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1100 AM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADO AVILA ** WTNT25 KNHC 250900 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 0900 UTC FRI AUG 25 2006 ...CORRECTION TO ADD 12 FT SEAS... TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 65.7W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 65.7W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 64.9W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 13.9N 67.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 14.8N 70.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 25SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 15.6N 72.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 16.5N 75.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 18.5N 79.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 21.0N 84.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 23.5N 87.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 65.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE ** WTCA45 TJSJ 250903 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL CINCO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 3 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL052006 500 AM AST VIERNES 25 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...LA DEPRESION ES CASI UNA TORMENTA TROPICAL... A LAS 500 AM AST...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL CINCO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 13.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 65.7 OESTE O COMO A 345 MILLAS...560 KILOMETROS...AL SUR DE SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 20 MPH...Y EN UN MOVIMIENTO GENERAL HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE Y SE ESPERA ALGUNA DISMINUCION EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS UNO O DOS DIAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUNA INTENSIFICACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS Y LA DEPRESION PODRIA TORNARSE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL MAS TARDE HOY O ESTA NOCHE. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA POR OBSERVACIONES DE BARCOS ES DE 1005 MILIBARAS...29.68 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE LAS ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA SEAN DE 1 A 2 PULGADAS EN ASOCIACION CON LA DEPRESION...A TRAVES DE PORCIONES DE LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO...PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM AST...13.4 NORTE...65.7 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE A CERCA DE 20 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 1005 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR BLAKE/AVILA