** WTSR20 WSSS 241800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 250000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD06 INITIAL TIME 250000 UTC 00HR 22.1N 111.8E 1002HPA 12M/S P12HR NNW 10KM/H P+24HR 24.0N 110.9E 1004HPA 10M/S= ** WTPN31 PGTW 250300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 250000Z --- NEAR 22.0N 111.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND REPEAT POSIT: 22.0N 111.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 23.1N 110.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 250300Z POSITION NEAR 22.3N 111.6E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 13W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM WEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 242305Z SSMI PASS DEPICTED A WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT. SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS AT 250000Z INDICATES THAT THE CENTER HAS MOVED INLAND NEAR YANGJIANG, CHINA. 250000Z SURFACE REPORTS FROM YANGJIANG SHOWED PRESSURE NEAR 1004 MB AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 16 KNOTS. NEARBY SHANGCHUAN ISLAND REPORTED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 25 KNOTS. TD 13W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MON- ITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.// ** WTNT44 KNHC 250245 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 1100 PM EDT THU AUG 24 2006 DEBBY STILL LOOKS MUCH LIKE IT DID SIX HOURS AGO...WITH A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION AND CIRRUS SPREADING OUT TO THE NORTH DUE TO SOUTHERLY SHEAR. DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS HAVE NOT CHANGED AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30-35 KT. HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST WINDS RETRIEVED BY QUIKSCAT IN AN OVERPASS AROUND 21Z WERE 45 KT...AND THAT REMAINS THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. MANUAL ANALYSIS OF THE QUIKSCAT DIRECTIONAL AMBIGUITIES CONFIRMS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS BENEATH THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL MOTION OF 295/16 IS JUST A LITTLE LEFT OF WHAT IT WAS EARLIER...BUT STILL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. ONCE AGAIN THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST OR THE UNDERLYING REASONING. THE STEERING MECHANISMS LEADING TO RECURVATURE REMAIN FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD...AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE TIGHTLY-CLUSTERED DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR WILL PROBABLY NOT ABATE MUCH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO A PERSISTENT MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF DEBBY...SO ONLY VERY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THAT PERIOD. THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MIGHT SLACKEN A BIT ON DAY 3 AND ALLOW DEBBY TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE FASTER...BUT THEREAFTER A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL AGAIN INCREASE THE SHEAR. THE CHANCES OF DEBBY REACHING HURRICANE INTENSITY BEFORE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION APPEAR TO BE QUITE MARGINAL...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS NUDGED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY ON DAYS 4 AND 5...VERY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/0300Z 21.9N 41.1W 45 KT 12HR VT 25/1200Z 22.9N 43.4W 45 KT 24HR VT 26/0000Z 24.6N 46.2W 45 KT 36HR VT 26/1200Z 26.2N 48.5W 50 KT 48HR VT 27/0000Z 28.1N 50.2W 55 KT 72HR VT 28/0000Z 32.0N 51.0W 55 KT 96HR VT 29/0000Z 36.0N 48.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 30/0000Z 41.0N 42.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER KNABB ** WTNT24 KNHC 250245 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 0300 UTC FRI AUG 25 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 41.1W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 45NE 20SE 20SW 45NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 41.1W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 40.3W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 22.9N 43.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 20SE 20SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 24.6N 46.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 20SE 20SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 26.2N 48.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 28.1N 50.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 32.0N 51.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 36.0N 48.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 41.0N 42.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.9N 41.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER KNABB ** WTNT34 KNHC 250246 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 1100 PM AST THU AUG 24 2006 ...DEBBY CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.1 WEST OR ABOUT 1190 MILES...1915 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. DEBBY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...21.9 N...41.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER KNABB ** WTPA22 PHFO 250247 *** TCMCP2 HURRICANE IOKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 0300 UTC FRI AUG 25 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 173.7W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 935 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 155 KT. 64 KT....... 90NE 50SE 50SW 90NW. 50 KT.......130NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. 34 KT.......180NE 140SE 120SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 160SE 140SW 200NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 173.7W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 173.4W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 19.5N 174.5W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT. 64 KT... 90NE 50SE 50SW 90NW. 50 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. 34 KT...180NE 140SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 19.9N 176.0W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT. 64 KT... 90NE 50SE 50SW 90NW. 50 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. 34 KT...180NE 140SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 19.9N 177.4W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT. 64 KT... 90NE 50SE 50SW 90NW. 50 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. 34 KT...180NE 140SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 19.5N 178.9W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 50 KT...120NE 80SE 80SW 120NW. 34 KT...160NE 100SE 100SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.6N 178.6E MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT...110NE 60SE 60SW 110NW. 34 KT...140NE 80SE 80SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 19.0N 176.1E MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 20.4N 174.0E MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 173.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BURKE/KODAMA ** WTPZ25 KNHC 250249 *** TCMEP5 HURRICANE ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006 0300 UTC FRI AUG 25 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 116.0W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 75NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT.......225NE 100SE 90SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..275NE 200SE 100SW 125NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 116.0W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 115.7W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 21.8N 116.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 22.3N 117.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...125NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 22.6N 118.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 22.8N 120.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 25SE 25SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 22.5N 122.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 22.0N 124.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 116.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER COBB/KNABB ** WTPZ45 KNHC 250249 *** TCDEP5 HURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006 800 PM PDT THU AUG 24 2006 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES. CIMSS ADT 6-HOURLY AVERAGED ESTIMATES ARE HIGHER...CLOSE TO 100 KT. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ONCE AGAIN WITH DRY AIR ATTEMPTING TO WRAP INTO THE PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY LOWERED TO 80 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. ILEANA IS ON THE VERGE OF CROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM WHICH COUPLED WITH THE WEAKINING NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS STEADY WEAKENING MAY BE CLOSE AT HAND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL...SHIPS AND FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE. ILEANA SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 96 HOURS WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED AT 120 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/7 BASED ON A 12 HOUR AVERAGE. THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED...WITH ILEANA RESPONDING TO A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WHILE IT REMAINS A DEEP SYSTEM AND THEN TURNING WESTWARD WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS. THE FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...CONU/GUNA THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTER 48 HOURS...A MOTION SOUTH OF DUE WEST WAS INTRODUCED WHICH REFLECTS THE SOUTHWARD TRENDS OF THE FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE...GFDL AND SHALLOW BAM. THE 34-KT WIND AND 12 FOOT SEA RADII WERE ADJUSTED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT BASED ON 0000 UTC OBSERVATIONS FROM SHIPS DILE AND A8HR7. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/0300Z 21.2N 116.0W 80 KT 12HR VT 25/1200Z 21.8N 116.8W 70 KT 24HR VT 26/0000Z 22.3N 117.8W 60 KT 36HR VT 26/1200Z 22.6N 118.8W 45 KT 48HR VT 27/0000Z 22.8N 120.0W 35 KT 72HR VT 28/0000Z 22.5N 122.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 29/0000Z 22.0N 124.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER COBB/KNABB ** WTNT25 KNHC 250249 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 0300 UTC FRI AUG 25 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 63.9W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 63.9W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 63.2W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 13.7N 66.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 14.5N 68.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 25SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 15.3N 71.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.0N 73.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 17.5N 77.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 19.5N 81.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 22.0N 85.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 63.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB ** WTPA32 PHFO 250250 *** TCPCP2 BULLETIN HURRICANE IOKE ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 500 PM HST THU AUG 24 2006 ...MAJOR HURRICANE IOKE REMAINS A CATEGORY 4 SYSTEM FAR WEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS... AT 500 PM HST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 173.7 WEST OR ABOUT 320 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND AND ABOUT 1035 MILES WEST OF HONOLULU. IOKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IOKE IS EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD BETWEEN 24 AND 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 935 MB...27.61 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 PM HST POSITION...19.1 N...173.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM HST. $$ FORECASTER BURKE/KODAMA ** WTPA42 PHFO 250250 *** TCDCP2 HURRICANE IOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 500 PM HST THU AUG 24 2006 IOKE HAS BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN A RATHER NICE EYE AND SYMMETRIC STRUCTURE DURING THE DAY. A 2016 UTC MICROWAVE PASS SHOWED A CLOSED INNER EYEWALL SURROUNDED BY WHAT APPEARED TO BE AN INCOMPLETE OUTER EYEWALL. THIS MAY BE INDICATING THAT IOKE IS GOING THROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. IT IS CERTAINLY A STRONG ENOUGH SYSTEM TO MAKE THIS A POSSIBILITY. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM CPHC...SAB AND JTWC INDICATE 127 KT WHILE AFWA SHOWS 115 KT. WILL MAINTAIN AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 125 KT...OR CATEGORY 4 ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE FOR THIS PACKAGE. WINDSAT DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT IOKE IS A LARGE SYSTEM SO THE INITIAL WIND RADII HAVE BEEN INCREASED ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. AN INITIAL MOTION OF 290 AT 6 KT IS BEING USED AGAIN AS IOKE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OF A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE WHICH EXPECTS A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE TO BUILD IN WEST OF THE HURRICANE. THE RIDGE SHOULD IMPART A SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION ON IOKE FROM DAYS 2 THROUGH 4. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY DAY 5 WHICH SHOULD PULL IOKE BACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO WITH THE MAIN DIFFERENCES BEING THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ECMWF KEEPS A STRONGER RIDGE AND HAS THE SOUTHERNMOST TRACK WHILE THE GFS WEAKENS THE RIDGE SUBSTANTIALLY TO FORCE A NORTHWESTWARD TURN FARTHER EAST THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE GUNS...GUNA AND CONU DYNAMIC CONSENSUS AND CALLS FOR IOKE TO CROSS THE DATELINE AND BECOME A TYPHOON SOME TIME BETWEEN DAYS 2 AND 3. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND MAINTAINS 125 KT THROUGH 36 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A MODEST WEAKENING TO 115 KT AFTERWARD. NOTE THAT A HURRICANE OF THIS INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO HAVE RAPID AND TOUGH TO FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS. SST VALUES ARE NEARLY 28C AND THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES IOKE OVER 29C WATERS. THIS FAVORS AT LEAST CURRENT INTENSITY MAINTENANCE AND POSSIBLY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. THE CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSIS FROM 0000 UTC SHOWS ONLY 2.8 M/S VERTICAL SHEAR WHICH IS A VERY LOW VALUE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE FROM THE DYNAMIC MODELS SHOW STEADY VALUES THROUGH 36 HOURS THEN SOME DIVERGENCE IN THE SOLUTIONS THEREAFTER. BOTH THE GFDI AND GFS WANT TO EVENTUALLY INTENSIFY IOKE TO A CATEGORY 5 SYSTEM WHILE THE OTHERS MAINTAIN A CATEGORY 4 SYSTEM. THE SHIPS MODEL IS NOT USED IN THIS PACKAGE DUE TO PROBLEMS WITH THE COMPUTATIONS OVER THE WESTERN EXTREME OF THE MODEL DOMAIN. THE SLIGHT WEAKENING FORECAST AFTER 36 HOURS IS A RESULT OF SOME NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR THAT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR SHOULD NOT PREVENT IOKE FROM BEING A MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/0300Z 19.1N 173.7W 125 KT 12HR VT 25/1200Z 19.5N 174.5W 125 KT 24HR VT 26/0000Z 19.9N 176.0W 125 KT 36HR VT 26/1200Z 19.9N 177.4W 125 KT 48HR VT 27/0000Z 19.5N 178.9W 120 KT 72HR VT 28/0000Z 18.6N 178.6E 115 KT 96HR VT 29/0000Z 19.0N 176.1E 115 KT 120HR VT 30/0000Z 20.4N 174.0E 115 KT $$ FORECASTER KODAMA/BURKE ** WTNT35 KNHC 250253 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 PM AST THU AUG 24 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE STILL PRODUCING SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.9 WEST OR ABOUT 390 MILES...625 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...AND A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...RAIN BANDS TRAILING THE CENTER WILL BE AFFECTING THE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...WITH HEAVY RAINS AND WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN SQUALLS. ALL INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...AS WELL AS IN TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO...SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION. REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...13.2 N...63.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB ** WTCA44 TJSJ 250254 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL DEBBY ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 14 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL042006 1100 PM AST JUEVES 24 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...DEBBY CONTINUA HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE SOBRE LAS AGUS MAR ABIERTO DEL ESTE DEL ATLANTICO... A LAS 1100 PM AST...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL DEBBY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 21.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 41.1 OESTE O COMO A 1190 MILLAS...1915 KILOMETROS...AL OESTE-NOROESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE. DEBBY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 18 MPH...30 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 50 MPH...85 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA POCO CAMBIO EN EL FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 50 MILLAS...85 KILOMETROS...DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1000 MILIBARAS...29.53 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 PM AST...21.9 NORTE...41.1 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 18 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1000 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 AM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR KNABB ** WTCA45 TJSJ 250258 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL CINCO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 2 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 PM AST JUEVES 24 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...LA DEPRESION TROPICAL CINCO CONTINUA PRODUCIENDO AGUACEROS Y VIENTOS EN RAFAGAS A TRAVES DE PORCIONES DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES... A LAS 11 PM AST...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL CINCO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 13.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 63.9 OESTE O COMO A 390 MILLAS...625 KILOMETROS...AL SUR SURESTE DE SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 18 MPH...Y EN UN MOVIMIENTO DE OESTE A OESTE NOROESTE. SE ESPERA UNA DISMINUCION EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA QUE LA DEPRESION SE CONVIERTA EN UNA TORMENTA TROPICAL EL VIERNES. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA REPORTADA DESDE UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO FUE DE 1007 MILIBARAS...29.74 PULGADAS. AUNQUE EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION CONTINUA ALEJANDOSE DE LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO...LAS BANDAS DE LLUVIA DESDE EL CENTRO ESTARAN AFECTANDO LAS ISLAS DURANTE LA NOCHE...CON LLUVIAS FUERTES Y RAFAGAS DE VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN TURBONADAS. TODOS LOS INTERESES EN LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO AL IGUAL QUE EN TRINIDAD Y TOBAGO...DEBEN EJERCER PRECAUCION HASTA QUE LOS VIENTOS Y EL OLEAJE DISMINUYAN. SE ESPERA QUE LAS ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA SEAN DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS EN ASOCIACION CON LA DEPRESION. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM AST...13.2 NORTE...63.9 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE A CERCA DE 18 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 1007 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR MAINELLI/KNABB ** WTNT45 KNHC 250302 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 PM EDT THU AUG 24 2006 LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS MAINTAINED CONVECTION IN A SOMEWHAT SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. A BLEND OF DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS YIELDS A DATA T-NUMBER OF 2.0 OR 30 KT. BASED UPON THIS INFORMATION AS WELL AS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...THE CYCLONE IS KEPT AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH 30 KT MAXIMUM WINDS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/17...WHICH IS AN AVERAGE OF THE LAST SIX HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED ON A WESTERLY TRACK BY A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS MAINTAIN THIS RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION AND TAKE A RELATIVELY WEAK SYSTEM ON A STRAIGHT WESTWARD TRACK. THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS FORECAST A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND FORECAST A STRONGER CYCLONE TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF WESTERN CUBA IN 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...TOWARD THE GFS AND GFDL SOLUTIONS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY CONTINGENT UPON A COMPLICATED UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FOR WHICH THE GLOBAL MODELS PROVIDE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST TO SPLIT FROM A SHEAR AXIS CURRENTLY STRETCHED ALONG 25N IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS KEEP THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW INTACT AND MOVE IT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS TO THE SOUTH OF A LARGE MID-UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SCENARIO MIGHT KEEP SOME SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS MOVE THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW FASTER TO THE WEST...CREATING A MUCH WEAKER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AT DAYS 3 TO 5. ALL THIS MEANS IS THAT THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS INTENSIFY THE CYCLONE TO A HURRICANE WITHIN 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE GFDL MODEL WEAKENS THE SYSTEM OVER CUBA BUT THE SHIPS FORECAST CONTINUED STRENGTHENING THROUGH 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS NUDGED UPWARD TOWARD THE GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/0300Z 13.2N 63.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 25/1200Z 13.7N 66.2W 35 KT 24HR VT 26/0000Z 14.5N 68.9W 40 KT 36HR VT 26/1200Z 15.3N 71.1W 45 KT 48HR VT 27/0000Z 16.0N 73.0W 55 KT 72HR VT 28/0000Z 17.5N 77.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 29/0000Z 19.5N 81.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 30/0000Z 22.0N 85.0W 65 KT $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB ** WTPA22 PHFO 250408 *** TCMCP2 HURRICANE IOKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 0300 UTC FRI AUG 25 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 173.7W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 935 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 155 KT. 64 KT....... 90NE 50SE 50SW 90NW. 50 KT.......130NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. 34 KT.......180NE 140SE 120SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 160SE 140SW 200NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 173.7W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 173.4W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 19.5N 174.5W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT. 64 KT... 90NE 50SE 50SW 90NW. 50 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. 34 KT...180NE 140SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 19.9N 176.0W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT. 64 KT... 90NE 50SE 50SW 90NW. 50 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. 34 KT...180NE 140SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 19.9N 177.4W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT. 64 KT... 90NE 50SE 50SW 90NW. 50 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. 34 KT...180NE 140SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 19.5N 178.9W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 50 KT...120NE 80SE 80SW 120NW. 34 KT...160NE 100SE 100SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.6N 178.6E MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT...110NE 60SE 60SW 110NW. 34 KT...140NE 80SE 80SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 19.0N 176.1E MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 20.4N 174.0E MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 173.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BURKE/KODAMA ** WTNT80 EGRR 250459 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 25.08.2006 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ANALYSED POSITION : 22.0N 40.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 25.08.2006 22.0N 40.2W MODERATE 12UTC 25.08.2006 23.0N 43.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.08.2006 24.5N 45.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.08.2006 26.7N 47.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.08.2006 28.0N 48.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.08.2006 30.2N 48.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.08.2006 33.7N 46.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.08.2006 37.6N 43.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 29.08.2006 43.6N 40.8W EXTRA-TROPICAL TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ANALYSED POSITION : 13.3N 63.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 25.08.2006 13.3N 63.8W WEAK 12UTC 25.08.2006 13.3N 66.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.08.2006 13.5N 68.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.08.2006 15.9N 71.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.08.2006 16.0N 75.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.08.2006 17.0N 77.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.08.2006 17.9N 80.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.08.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE ILEANA ANALYSED POSITION : 20.9N 115.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 25.08.2006 20.9N 115.6W MODERATE 12UTC 25.08.2006 22.3N 117.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.08.2006 23.1N 118.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.08.2006 23.4N 119.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.08.2006 24.3N 119.7W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 27.08.2006 25.0N 120.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.08.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE IOKE ANALYSED POSITION : 18.9N 173.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP012006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 25.08.2006 18.9N 173.4W MODERATE 12UTC 25.08.2006 19.4N 174.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.08.2006 20.1N 175.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.08.2006 20.0N 177.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.08.2006 19.3N 178.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.08.2006 18.5N 179.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.08.2006 17.9N 178.6E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.08.2006 17.8N 177.3E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.08.2006 18.1N 175.9E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.08.2006 19.0N 174.8E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.08.2006 20.4N 174.1E INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.08.2006 22.0N 174.0E INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 31.08.2006 23.5N 173.6E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 250459 ** WTNT80 EGRR 250517 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 25.08.2006 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ANALYSED POSITION : 22.0N 40.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 25.08.2006 22.0N 40.2W MODERATE 12UTC 25.08.2006 23.0N 43.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.08.2006 24.5N 45.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.08.2006 26.7N 47.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.08.2006 28.0N 48.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.08.2006 30.2N 48.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.08.2006 33.7N 46.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.08.2006 37.6N 43.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 29.08.2006 43.6N 40.8W EXTRA-TROPICAL TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ANALYSED POSITION : 13.3N 63.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 25.08.2006 13.3N 63.8W WEAK 12UTC 25.08.2006 13.3N 66.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.08.2006 13.5N 68.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.08.2006 15.9N 71.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.08.2006 16.0N 75.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.08.2006 17.0N 77.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.08.2006 17.9N 80.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.08.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE ILEANA ANALYSED POSITION : 20.9N 115.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 25.08.2006 20.9N 115.6W MODERATE 12UTC 25.08.2006 22.3N 117.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.08.2006 23.1N 118.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.08.2006 23.4N 119.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.08.2006 24.3N 119.7W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 27.08.2006 25.0N 120.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.08.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE IOKE ANALYSED POSITION : 18.9N 173.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP012006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 25.08.2006 18.9N 173.4W MODERATE 12UTC 25.08.2006 19.4N 174.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.08.2006 20.1N 175.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.08.2006 20.0N 177.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.08.2006 19.3N 178.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.08.2006 18.5N 179.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.08.2006 17.9N 178.6E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.08.2006 17.8N 177.3E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.08.2006 18.1N 175.9E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.08.2006 19.0N 174.8E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.08.2006 20.4N 174.1E INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.08.2006 22.0N 174.0E INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 31.08.2006 23.5N 173.6E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 250517