** WTPQ20 BABJ 241800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD06 INITIAL TIME 241800 UTC 00HR 21.3N 112.5E 1002HPA 14M/S P12HR NNW 10KM/H P+24HR 23.1N 111.5E 1002HPA 12M/S= ** WTSS20 VHHH 241945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 241800 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (21.6 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (112.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 60 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 251800 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 241945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 241800 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (21.6 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (112.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 60 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 251800 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTNT24 KNHC 242034 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 2100 UTC THU AUG 24 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 39.5W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 120SE 120SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 39.5W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 38.7W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 22.3N 41.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 23.8N 44.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 25.4N 47.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 27.1N 49.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 30.9N 51.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 35.0N 49.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 40.1N 44.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N 39.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z $$ FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN ** WTNT44 KNHC 242034 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 500 PM EDT THU AUG 24 2006 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN DEBBY DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. ACCORDINGLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS UNCHANGED AT 45 KT. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT SOUTHERLY SHEAR CONTINUES OVER THE CYCLONE WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION DISPLACED A LITTLE NORTH OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER. ADDITIONALLY...DEBBY IS EXHIBITING A BURSTING TYPE PATTERN IN ITS CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION. SINCE THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE SHORT-TERM...ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS SHOWN DURING THE FIRST 2 DAYS. THE UPPER FLOW MAY BECOME A BIT MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A HURRICANE MAY NOT COME UNTIL IT NEARS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THIS SAME TROUGH IS ALSO EXPECTED TO RESULT IN DEBBY'S EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY DAY 5. THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS TO DELAY STRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE BY ONE DAY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/7. DEBBY SHOULD CONTINUE ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE AZORES. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTH INTO A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...THEN ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK GUIDANCE...WHICH REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT... AND ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/2100Z 21.3N 39.5W 45 KT 12HR VT 25/0600Z 22.3N 41.9W 45 KT 24HR VT 25/1800Z 23.8N 44.9W 45 KT 36HR VT 26/0600Z 25.4N 47.4W 50 KT 48HR VT 26/1800Z 27.1N 49.5W 55 KT 72HR VT 27/1800Z 30.9N 51.3W 55 KT 96HR VT 28/1800Z 35.0N 49.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 29/1800Z 40.1N 44.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN ** WTNT34 KNHC 242034 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 500 PM AST THU AUG 24 2006 ...DEBBY EXPECTED TO RECURVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.5 WEST OR ABOUT 1080 MILES...1735 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. DEBBY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...21.3 N...39.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN ** WTCA44 TJSJ 242037 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL DEBBY ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 13 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL042006 500 PM AST JUEVES 24 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...SE ESPERA QUE DEBBY SE DIRIJA HACIA EL ATLANTICO CENTRAL... A LAS 500 PM AST...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL DEBBY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 21.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 39.5 OESTE O COMO A 1080 MILLAS...1735 KILOMETROS...AL OESTE-NOROESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE. DEBBY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 20 MPH...32 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 50 MPH...85 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA UN POCO CAMBIO EN EL FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 60 MILLAS...95 KILOMETROS...DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1000 MILIBARAS...29.53 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 PM AST...21.3 NORTE...39.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 20 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1000 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1100 PM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR RHOME/FRANKLIN ** WTPZ25 KNHC 242038 *** TCMEP5 HURRICANE ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006 2100 UTC THU AUG 24 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 115.5W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT.......150NE 100SE 90SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..350NE 200SE 100SW 125NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 115.5W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 115.2W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 21.4N 116.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...135NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 22.1N 117.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...115NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 22.5N 118.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 22.6N 119.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 22.7N 121.4W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 22.5N 123.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.8N 115.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN/FRANKLIN ** WTPZ45 KNHC 242038 *** TCDEP5 HURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006 200 PM PDT THU AUG 24 2006 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION SUGGESTS THAT ILEANA HAS MADE A BIT OF A COMEBACK TODAY...AS CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED NEAR THE CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 85 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF CI AND T NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB AND AODT NUMBERS THAT HAVE INCREASED DUE TO THE IMPROVED SATELLITE REPRESENTATION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HELD A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS DUE TO THE...PRESUMABLY TEMPORARY ...INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST BEYOND 24 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE WILL BE CROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM. ILEANA SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4 WITH DISSIPATION SOON TO FOLLOW. THE INITIAL MOTION HAS CONTINUED TO SLOW AND IS NOW 300/7. THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED...WITH ILEANA FEELING THE EFFECTS OF THE BREAK IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WHILE IT REMAINS A DEEP SYSTEM AND THEN TURNING WESTWARD WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS. THE FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...CONU...THROUGH 24 HOURS AND REFLECTS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CONU FOR DAY 2. BY DAY 3 A MOTION SOUTH OF DUE WEST WAS INTRODUCED...SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND REFLECTING THE SOUTHWARD TRENDS OF THE CONU AND GUNA CONSENSUS TRACKS...THE GFDL AND SHALLOW BAM. THE 34-KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON A 1351 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS AND A 1800 UTC OBSERVATION OF 40 KT FROM SHIP A8HR7 NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/2100Z 20.8N 115.5W 85 KT 12HR VT 25/0600Z 21.4N 116.5W 80 KT 24HR VT 25/1800Z 22.1N 117.6W 60 KT 36HR VT 26/0600Z 22.5N 118.5W 45 KT 48HR VT 26/1800Z 22.6N 119.6W 35 KT 72HR VT 27/1800Z 22.7N 121.4W 25 KT 96HR VT 28/1800Z 22.5N 123.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN/FRANKLIN ** WTPA22 PHFO 242047 *** TCMCP2 HURRICANE IOKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 2100 UTC THU AUG 24 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 173.3W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 935 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 155 KT. 64 KT....... 70NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT.......100NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT.......180NE 140SE 90SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 160SE 110SW 200NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 173.3W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 173.0W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 19.2N 174.3W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 140SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 19.6N 175.6W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. 50 KT...100NE 70SE 70SW 100NW. 34 KT...180NE 120SE 100SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 19.7N 177.0W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. 50 KT...100NE 70SE 70SW 100NW. 34 KT...180NE 120SE 100SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 19.6N 178.4W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 100SE 100SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.7N 179.0E MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 80SE 80SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 18.9N 176.3E MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 20.1N 174.0E MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 173.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KODAMA ** WTPA32 PHFO 242049 *** TCPCP2 BULLETIN HURRICANE IOKE ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 1100 AM HST THU AUG 24 2006 ...MAJOR HURRICANE IOKE INTENSIFIES TO A CATEGORY 4 SYSTEM FAR WEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS... AT 1100 AM HST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 173.3 WEST OR ABOUT 290 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND AND ABOUT 1015 MILES WEST OF HONOLULU. IOKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IOKE IS EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD BETWEEN 24 AND 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 935 MB...27.61 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM HST POSITION...18.8 N...173.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM HST. $$ FORECASTER KODAMA ** WTPA42 PHFO 242050 *** TCDCP2 HURRICANE IOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 1100 AM HST THU AUG 24 2006 IOKE HAS INTENSIFIED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES OF THE DAY SHOW A NICE SYMMETRIC HURRICANE WITH A 20 NM WIDE EYE AND EYEWALL CONVECTION WRAPPING COMPLETELY AROUND. THE SSMI PASS FROM 1726 UTC ALSO INDICATED A CLOSED EYEWALL. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM CPHC...AFWA...JTWC AND SAB ALL INDICATE 127 KT SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 125 KT...OR CATEGORY 4 ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290 AT 6 KT AS IOKE PASSES SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEST OF THE DATELINE IS RETREATING NORTHWESTWARD AND WILL BE REPLACED BY A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WESTWARD AHEAD OF IOKE AND IMPART A SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION ON THE HURRICANE FROM DAYS 2 THROUGH 4. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALONG WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC SHOULD PULL IOKE BACK ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BY DAY 5. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND THE DYNAMIC OBJECTIVE AIDS ARE CLUSTERED RATHER TIGHTLY THROUGH DAY 5. THE FORECAST IS A BIT SOUTH OF THE DYNAMIC CONSENSUS AND SLIGHT NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH DAY 2...THEN CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE CLUSTER OF DYNAMIC GUIDANCE TRACKS FROM DAYS 2 THROUGH 5. CONSIDERABLE CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST BOTH IN THE NEAR TERM DUE TO THE INTENSIFICATION OF IOKE AND ESPECIALLY OUT TO DAY 5. SST VALUES ARE NEARLY 28C AND THE FORECAST TRACK WILL TAKE THE HURRICANE OVER 29C WATERS SO THIS ASPECT FAVORS SYSTEM MAINTENANCE OR EVEN FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. THE 1800 UTC CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSIS INDICATES ONLY 1.0 M/S VERTICAL SHEAR AND THE NEAR TERM SHEAR VALUES SHOULD REMAIN LOW. AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS...IT IS EXPECTED THAT SOME DEGREE OF NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR FROM 48 HOURS WILL INDUCE SOME MODEST WEAKENING. OBJECTIVE INTENSITY GUIDANCE FAVORS KEEPING IOKE AT LEAST AT CATEGORY 3 LEVELS THOUGH THE GFDI WANTS TO INCREASE IT TO CATEGORY 5 AFTER 48 HOURS. A HURRICANE OF THIS INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO HAVE RAPID AND TOUGH TO FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR MAINTAINING IOKE AT CURRENT LEVELS THROUGH 36 HOURS. SLIGHT WEAKENING TO 115 KT FROM SOME SHEAR EFFECTS IS FORECAST AFTER 48 HOURS. IN SUMMARY...MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS ALL THE WAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/2100Z 18.8N 173.3W 125 KT 12HR VT 25/0600Z 19.2N 174.3W 125 KT 24HR VT 25/1800Z 19.6N 175.6W 125 KT 36HR VT 26/0600Z 19.7N 177.0W 125 KT 48HR VT 26/1800Z 19.6N 178.4W 120 KT 72HR VT 27/1800Z 18.7N 179.0E 115 KT 96HR VT 28/1800Z 18.9N 176.3E 115 KT 120HR VT 29/1800Z 20.1N 174.0E 115 KT $$ FORECASTER KODAMA ** WTNT35 KNHC 242051 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 500 PM AST THU AUG 24 2006 ...FIFTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A CLOSED CIRCULATION HAS FORMED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THOUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.4 WEST OR ABOUT 155 MILES...250 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MARTINIQUE AND ABOUT 455 MILES...730 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH...AND A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...RAIN BANDS TRAILING THE CENTER WILL BE AFFECTING THE ISLANDS TONIGHT...WITH HEAVY RAINS AND WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN SQUALLS. ALL INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...AS WELL AS IN TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO...SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION. REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...12.9 N...62.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 22 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN/PASCH ** WTNT45 KNHC 242052 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 500 PM EDT THU AUG 24 2006 AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WORKED LONG AND HARD THIS AFTERNOON TO CLOSE OFF THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND FOUND ENOUGH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO CONSIDER THE SYSTEM A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE AIRCRAFT JUST PASSED THROUGH THE CENTER AND REPORTED PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 39 KT...WHICH CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 30 KT AT THE SURFACE. ALTHOUGH BARBADOS REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 33 KT EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...THE DIRECTION OF THOSE WINDS SUGGESTED A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW OR DOWNBURST NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF THE CYCLONE CIRCULATION. AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS IN THE BANDS WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER INDICATE WINDS THERE ARE ALSO BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. WITH THE CENTER ALREADY IN THE CARIBBEAN AND NOW MOVING AWAY FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...NO WARNINGS ARE BEING ISSUED. HOWEVER... INTERESTS THERE SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/19. A LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC IS CURRENTLY PROVIDING A WESTWARD STEERING FLOW...AND THIS RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN ROUGHLY IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OTHER KEY PLAYER IS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THIS TROUGH WILL BE PROVIDING BOTH WESTERLY SHEAR AND AND A NORTHWARD STEERING COMPONENT. THE GFDL RESPONDS TO THIS BY GRADUALLY LIFTING THE TRACK AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND TOWARD THE GREATER ANTILLES. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FOR THE MOST PART FARTHER SOUTH AND KEEP THE SYSTEM WEAKER IN RESPONSE TO THE SHEAR. I AM REMINDED THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS CORRECTLY FORECAST THE DISSIPATION OF CHRIS A WHILE BACK...AND THE GFDL DOESN'T ALWAYS HANDLE SHEAR WELL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN OPTION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS BOTH A DRY ENVIRONMENT AS WELL AS SOME WESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE IN THE CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...THE GFS RETROGRADES THE UPPER LOW AND IF THIS OCCURS WOULD RESULT IN A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING. THE SHIPS MODEL...WHICH IS BASED ON THE GFS FIELDS...RESPONDS TO THIS AND TAKES THE CYCLONE UP TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 60 HOURS. THE GFDL INTENSITIES ARE LOWER...BUT THIS RESULTS FROM A GFDL TRACK WHICH IS OVER LAND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TEMPERS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE WITH THE MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/2100Z 12.9N 62.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 25/0600Z 13.2N 65.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 25/1800Z 13.8N 68.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 26/0600Z 14.6N 70.2W 45 KT 48HR VT 26/1800Z 15.5N 72.5W 50 KT 72HR VT 27/1800Z 17.0N 76.5W 55 KT 96HR VT 28/1800Z 18.5N 80.5W 60 KT 120HR VT 29/1800Z 20.5N 85.0W 60 KT $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTNT25 KNHC 242052 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 2100 UTC THU AUG 24 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 62.4W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 62.4W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 61.5W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 13.2N 65.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 13.8N 68.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 14.6N 70.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 15.5N 72.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 17.0N 76.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 18.5N 80.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 20.5N 85.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.9N 62.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTPN31 PGTW 242100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/232330Z AUG 06// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 241800Z --- NEAR 21.3N 112.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 21.3N 112.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 22.4N 111.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 23.6N 110.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 242100Z POSITION NEAR 21.6N 112.2E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 13W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS AS WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPS TOWARD THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ADDITIONALLY, A 241558Z TRMM PASS INDICATED BETTER ORGANIZATION WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING EAST AND WEST OF THE LLCC. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS REVEALED WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS NEAR THE LLCC AND 241800Z SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS SHOWED COASTAL SURFACE PRESSURES NEAR 1002 MB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MODEST REDUCTION IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS POLEWARD. TD 13W IS CURRENTLY 50 NM SOUTH OF THE CHINA COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 12 HOURS. THE STORM WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 24. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 11 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 232330Z AUG 06 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 232330). NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z.// ** WTCA45 TJSJ 242108 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL CINCO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 1 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL052006 5 PM AST JUEVES 24 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...LA QUINTA DEPRESION TROPICAL SE FORMA CERCA DE LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO... LAS OBSERVACIONES DESDE UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO INDICAN QUE SE HA FORMADO UNA CIRCULACION CERRADA EN ASOCIACION CON LA FUERTE ONDA TROPICAL QUE SE MUEVE A TRAVES DE LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO. A LAS 5 PM AST...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL CINCO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 12.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 62.4 OESTE O COMO A 155 MILLAS...250 KILOMETROS...AL SUROESTE DE MARTINICA Y ALREDEDOR DE 455 MILLAS...730 KILOMETROS...AL SUR SURESTE DE SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 22 MPH...Y EN UN MOVIMIENTO DE OESTE A OESTE NOROESTE. SE ESPERA UNA DISMINUCION EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA QUE LA DEPRESION SE CONVIERTA EN UNA TORMENTA TROPICAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA REPORTADA DESDE UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO FUE DE 1007 MILIBARAS...29.74 PULGADAS. AUNQUE EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION SE ESTA ALEJANDO DE LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO...LAS BANDAS DE LLUVIA DESDE EL CENTRO ESTARAN AFECTANDO LAS ISLAS ESTA NOCHE...CON LLUVIAS FUERTES Y RAFAGAS DE VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN TURBONADAS. TODOS LOS INTERESES EN LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO AL IGUAL QUE EN TRINIDAD Y TOBAGO...DEBEN EJERCER PRECAUCION HASTA QUE LOS VIENTOS Y EL OLEAJE DISMINUYAN. SE ESPERA QUE LAS ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA SEAN DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS EN ASOCIACION CON LA DEPRESION. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM AST...12.9 NORTE...62.4 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE A CERCA DE 22 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 1007 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN/PASCH ** WTPN33 PHNC 242200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/242135AUG2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 10E (ILEANA) WARNING NR 014 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 241800Z --- NEAR 20.6N 115.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.6N 115.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 21.4N 116.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 22.1N 117.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 22.5N 118.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 22.6N 119.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 22.7N 121.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 22.5N 123.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 242200Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 115.6W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 19 FEET. AT 241800Z, HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED 898 NM WNW OF ACAPULCO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250400Z, 251000Z, 251600Z AND 252200Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 01C (IOKE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN33 PHNC 242200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/242135AUG2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 10E (ILEANA) WARNING NR 014 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 241800Z --- NEAR 20.6N 115.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.6N 115.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 21.4N 116.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 22.1N 117.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 22.5N 118.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 22.6N 119.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 22.7N 121.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 22.5N 123.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 242200Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 115.6W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 19 FEET. AT 241800Z, HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED 898 NM WNW OF ACAPULCO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250400Z, 251000Z, 251600Z AND 252200Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 01C (IOKE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PHNC 242200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/242140AUG2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 01C (IOKE) WARNING NR 020 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 241800Z --- NEAR 18.7N 173.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 155 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.7N 173.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 19.2N 174.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 155 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 19.6N 175.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 155 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 19.7N 177.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 155 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 19.6N 178.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 18.7N 179.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 18.9N 176.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 20.1N 174.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT --- REMARKS: 242200Z POSITION NEAR 18.9N 173.4W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 34 FEET. AT 082418 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED 774 NM WSW OF BARKING SANDS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250400Z, 251000Z, 251600Z AND 252200Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 10E (ILEANA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTSS20 VHHH 242245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 242100 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (21.8 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (112.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 60 NAUTICAL MILES. THIS TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS WEAKENING INTO A LOW PRESSURE AREA AND NO FURTHER W ARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HONG KONG OBSERVATORY UNLESS REGENERATION TAKES PLACE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 252100 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 242245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 242100 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (21.8 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (112.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 60 NAUTICAL MILES. THIS TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS WEAKENING INTO A LOW PRESSURE AREA AND NO FURTHER W ARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HONG KONG OBSERVATORY UNLESS REGENERATION TAKES PLACE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 252100 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND.