** WTSR20 WSSS 240600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 241200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD06 INITIAL TIME 241200 UTC 00HR 21.0N 112.6E 1002HPA 14M/S P12HR NNW 10KM/H P+24HR 22.8N 111.5E 1000HPA 12M/S= ** WTSS20 VHHH 241345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 241200 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ONE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (21.1 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (113.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 60 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 251200 UTC TWO THREE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (23.6 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (112.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 261200 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 271200 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 241345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 241200 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ONE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (21.1 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (113.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 60 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 251200 UTC TWO THREE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (23.6 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (112.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 261200 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 271200 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTNT44 KNHC 241429 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 1100 AM EDT THU AUG 24 2006 THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS BASED ON 45 KT VECTORS IN RECENT QUIKSCAT DATA...ALTHOUGH THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE NO HIGHER THAN 35 KT. DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED AT THIS TIME BUT BANDING FEATURES ARE WELL DEFINED AND THE OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS STRONG. A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED AS DEBBY MOVES OVER WARMER WATERS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOUTHERLY SHEAR WILL INCREASE AS WELL. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE KEEPS DIVERGING. THE SHIPS MODEL HAS BEEN TRENDING LOWER WITH SUCCESSIVE RUNS...BUT THE GFDL MODEL STILL FORECASTS A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE. I SUSPECT THE GFDL IS UNDERPLAYING THE IMPACT OF THE SHEAR. THERE IS NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THINKING OR TRACK FORECAST. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 300/17. THIS GENERAL TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS DEBBY MOVES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AZORES. ALL GUIDANCE AGREES ON A RECURVATURE TRACK...ALBEIT AT DIFFERENT RATES...IN FRONT OF A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AS WELL AS THE GUNA AND FSU CONSENSUS MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/1500Z 20.4N 37.8W 45 KT 12HR VT 25/0000Z 21.4N 40.2W 45 KT 24HR VT 25/1200Z 22.6N 43.0W 50 KT 36HR VT 26/0000Z 23.8N 45.5W 55 KT 48HR VT 26/1200Z 25.4N 48.0W 60 KT 72HR VT 27/1200Z 28.5N 50.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 28/1200Z 31.5N 50.5W 65 KT 120HR VT 29/1200Z 36.0N 48.0W 65 KT $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTNT24 KNHC 241429 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 1500 UTC THU AUG 24 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 37.8W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 120SE 120SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 37.8W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 37.0W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 21.4N 40.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 22.6N 43.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 23.8N 45.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 25.4N 48.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 28.5N 50.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 31.5N 50.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 36.0N 48.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 37.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTNT34 KNHC 241433 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 1100 AM AST THU AUG 24 2006 ...DEBBY REMAINS NO THREAT TO LAND... AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.8 WEST OR ABOUT 955 MILES...1535 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. DEBBY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...20.4 N...37.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTPA22 PHFO 241435 *** TCMCP2 HURRICANE IOKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 1500 UTC THU AUG 24 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 172.8W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 20SW 35NW. 50 KT.......100NE 70SE 50SW 90NW. 34 KT.......180NE 120SE 90SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 140SE 100SW 170NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 172.8W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 172.5W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 19.1N 173.7W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 35NW. 50 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 90NW. 34 KT...180NE 120SE 90SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 19.6N 175.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 95NE 65SE 65SW 95NW. 34 KT...175NE 95SE 95SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 19.7N 176.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 95NE 65SE 65SW 95NW. 34 KT...175NE 95SE 95SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 19.7N 177.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...140NE 85SE 85SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 19.0N 179.3E MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 80SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 18.9N 177.0E MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 19.8N 174.0E MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 172.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER R BALLARD ** WTPZ45 KNHC 241438 *** TCDEP5 HURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006 800 AM PDT THU AUG 24 2006 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ILEANA IS NOW WEAKENING IN EARNEST...WITH RAPIDLY WARMING CLOUD TOPS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 85 KT AND IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY AND T NUMBERS FROM THE VARIOUS AGENCIES. PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND STABLE AIR ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN FURTHER WEAKENING WITH ILEANA ULTIMATELY BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4...IF NOT SOONER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS WEAKENING A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED DEGRADATION OF THE CLOUD SIGNATURE. ILEANA'S INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 300/9. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. ACCORDINGLY...ILEANA IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN SPEED. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SHALLOW BY DAY 3...RESULTING IN A TURN TOWARD THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS EARLY...AND THEN TRENDS TOWARD THE SHALLOW BAM TRACK LATER IN THE FORECAST. THIS RESULTS IN AN OFFICIAL TRACK SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH AND A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BEYOND DAY 3. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/1500Z 20.5N 114.9W 85 KT 12HR VT 25/0000Z 21.2N 116.1W 75 KT 24HR VT 25/1200Z 21.9N 117.3W 60 KT 36HR VT 26/0000Z 22.4N 118.4W 50 KT 48HR VT 26/1200Z 22.8N 119.2W 40 KT 72HR VT 27/1200Z 23.0N 121.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 28/1200Z 23.0N 123.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 29/1200Z 23.0N 126.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN ** WTPZ25 KNHC 241438 *** TCMEP5 HURRICANE ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006 1500 UTC THU AUG 24 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 114.9W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 200SE 100SW 125NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 114.9W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 114.6W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 21.2N 116.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 21.9N 117.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 22.4N 118.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 22.8N 119.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 23.0N 121.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 23.0N 123.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 23.0N 126.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 114.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN ** WTCA44 TJSJ 241439 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL DEBBY ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 12 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL042006 1100 AM AST JUEVES 24 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...DEBBY SIN AMENAZAR TIERRA... A LAS 1100 AM AST...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL DEBBY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 20.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 37.8 OESTE O COMO A 955 MILLAS...1535 KILOMETROS...AL OESTE-NOROESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE. DEBBY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 20 MPH...32 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 50 MPH...85 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA UN LENTO FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 60 MILLAS...95 KILOMETROS...DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1000 MILIBARAS...29.53 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 AM AST...20.4 NORTE...37.8 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 20 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1000 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 PM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN ** WTPA32 PHFO 241445 *** TCPCP2 BULLETIN HURRICANE IOKE ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 500 AM HST THU AUG 24 2006 ...MAJOR HURRICANE IOKE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN FAR TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS... AT 500 AM HST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 172.8 WEST...OR ABOUT 255 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND AND ABOUT 985 MILES WEST OF HONOLULU. IOKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE WESTWARD TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 AM HST POSITION...18.7 N...172.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM HST. $$ FORECASTER R BALLARD ** WTPA42 PHFO 241507 *** TCDCP2 HURRICANE IOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 500 AM HST THU AUG 24 2006 IOKE HAS BEEN CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY EARLY THIS MORNING. A PERSISTENT EYE FEATURE HAS BEEN EVIDENT IN INFRARED IMAGERY... EMBEDDED WITHIN A SYMMETRIC CDO. THE 1121Z TRMM PASS REVEALED A WELL DEVELOPED INNER CORE STRUCTURE WITH A CIRCULAR EYE. CLOUD TOPS AROUND THE CENTER HAVE BEEN CONTINUING TO COOL. THE T-NUMBERS FROM PHFO...JTWC...AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO T6.0 WHILE AFWA MAINTAINED A 5.5. BASED ON THESE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE COMPUTES WERE SENT WITH AN INTIAL INTENSITY AT 1200Z OF 115 KT. HOWEVER...THE MOST RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM MAY BE CLOSER TO 110 KT...AND THAT WILL BE USED IN THE OFFICIAL 1500Z ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION HAS REMAINED MORE WESTWARD OVERNIGHT...ABOUT 285/6. IOKE IS BEING STEERED BY DEEP LAYER RIDGING...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE CYCLONE THROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED NORTHWARD SLIGHTLY IN THE SHORT TERM BUT REMAINS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED MODEL GUIDANCE. IN THE LONGER RANGE...IOKE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO ITS NORTH...AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO RESUME A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ONCE AGAIN. IOKE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGH 48 HOURS AS IT REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK SHEAR AND WARM SSTS. THEREAFTER...THE INTENSITY FORECAST BECOMES MORE CHALLENGING. IOKE WILL LIKELY BE ON A WEAKENING TREND AS IT BEGINS TO FEEL INCREASING NORTHERLY SHEAR FROM A DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE. EXCEPT FOR THE GFS...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT IOKE WILL BE ABLE TO REMAIN AHEAD OF THE STRONGER SHEARING TO THE NORTHEAST. WE HAVE KEPT THE INTENSITY HIGHER THAN INDICATED BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS IOKE INTO THE WEST PACIFIC AS A TYPHOON AROUND 0600Z ON THE 27TH. NOTE THAT IOKE WOULD RETAIN ITS HAWAIIAN NAME IF IT CROSSES THE DATELINE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/1500Z 18.7N 172.8W 110 KT 12HR VT 25/0000Z 19.1N 173.7W 110 KT 24HR VT 25/1200Z 19.6N 175.0W 105 KT 36HR VT 26/0000Z 19.7N 176.3W 105 KT 48HR VT 26/1200Z 19.7N 177.8W 100 KT 72HR VT 27/1200Z 19.0N 179.3E 90 KT 96HR VT 28/1200Z 18.9N 177.0E 85 KT 120HR VT 29/1200Z 19.8N 174.0E 70 KT $$ FORECASTER R BALLARD ** WTPN32 PHNC 241600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/241440AUG2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 01C (IOKE) WARNING NR 019 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 241200Z --- NEAR 18.6N 172.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.6N 172.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 19.1N 173.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 19.6N 175.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 19.7N 176.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 19.7N 177.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 120 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 19.0N 179.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 18.9N 177.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 19.8N 174.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT --- REMARKS: 241600Z POSITION NEAR 18.8N 172.9W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 41 FEET. AT 241200Z HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED 206 NM NW OF JOHNSTON_ISLAND. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242200Z, 250400Z, 251000Z AND 251600Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 10E (ILEANA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN33 PHNC 241600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/241535AUG2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 10E (ILEANA) WARNING NR 013 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 241200Z --- NEAR 20.3N 114.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.3N 114.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 21.2N 116.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 21.9N 117.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 22.4N 118.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 22.8N 119.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 23.0N 121.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 23.0N 123.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 23.0N 126.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 241600Z POSITION NEAR 20.6N 115.1W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 19 FEET. AT 082412 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED 225 NM WNW OF SOCORRO ISLAND. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242200Z, 250400Z, 251000Z AND 251600Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 01C (IOKE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PHNC 241600 COR *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/241440AUG2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 01C (IOKE) WARNING NR 019A CORRECTED 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 241200Z --- NEAR 18.6N 172.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.6N 172.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 19.1N 173.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 19.6N 175.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 19.7N 176.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 19.7N 177.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 120 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 19.0N 179.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 18.9N 177.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 19.8N 174.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT --- REMARKS: 241600Z POSITION NEAR 18.8N 172.9W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 41 FEET. AT 241200Z HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED 206 NM NW OF JOHNSTON ISLAND. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242200Z, 250400Z, 251000Z AND 251600Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 10E (ILEANA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED REFERENCE WTPN NUMBER FOR HURRICANE 10E IN REMARKS AND DELETED AN EXTRA SPACE.// ** WTNT80 EGRR 241700 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 24.08.2006 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ANALYSED POSITION : 20.4N 36.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 24.08.2006 20.4N 36.8W MODERATE 00UTC 25.08.2006 20.9N 39.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.08.2006 22.5N 42.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.08.2006 25.0N 44.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.08.2006 26.8N 46.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.08.2006 28.8N 48.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.08.2006 30.9N 48.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.08.2006 33.2N 47.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.08.2006 36.2N 44.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.08.2006 EXTRA TROPICAL HURRICANE ILEANA ANALYSED POSITION : 20.1N 114.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 24.08.2006 20.1N 114.5W MODERATE 00UTC 25.08.2006 21.5N 115.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.08.2006 22.4N 116.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.08.2006 23.2N 117.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.08.2006 23.5N 118.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.08.2006 23.8N 118.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.08.2006 24.1N 119.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.08.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE IOKE ANALYSED POSITION : 18.6N 172.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP012006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 24.08.2006 18.6N 172.5W MODERATE 00UTC 25.08.2006 19.6N 173.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.08.2006 20.2N 174.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 26.08.2006 20.8N 176.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.08.2006 21.1N 177.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.08.2006 20.5N 178.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.08.2006 20.0N 179.7E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.08.2006 20.0N 178.4E MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.08.2006 19.7N 176.9E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.08.2006 20.0N 175.6E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.08.2006 20.5N 174.6E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.08.2006 21.5N 173.7E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.08.2006 22.7N 173.1E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 241700 ** WTSS20 VHHH 241645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 241500 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ONE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (21.3 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (112.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 60 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 251500 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 241645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 241500 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ONE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (21.3 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (112.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 60 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 251500 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND.