** WTNT80 EGRR 240559 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 24.08.2006 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ANALYSED POSITION : 18.3N 33.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 24.08.2006 18.3N 33.5W MODERATE 12UTC 24.08.2006 19.0N 36.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.08.2006 20.6N 39.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.08.2006 21.9N 41.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.08.2006 23.1N 43.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.08.2006 23.0N 45.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.08.2006 24.1N 47.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.08.2006 25.4N 48.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.08.2006 27.0N 49.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.08.2006 28.0N 50.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.08.2006 29.5N 50.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.08.2006 31.4N 50.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.08.2006 32.8N 49.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE HURRICANE ILEANA ANALYSED POSITION : 19.3N 113.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 24.08.2006 19.3N 113.2W MODERATE 12UTC 24.08.2006 20.1N 115.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.08.2006 21.2N 116.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.08.2006 22.3N 117.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.08.2006 23.0N 118.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.08.2006 23.1N 119.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.08.2006 23.0N 120.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.08.2006 23.4N 120.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.08.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE IOKE ANALYSED POSITION : 18.1N 171.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP012006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 24.08.2006 18.1N 171.4W MODERATE 12UTC 24.08.2006 19.2N 172.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.08.2006 20.1N 173.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.08.2006 20.8N 174.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.08.2006 21.1N 176.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.08.2006 21.1N 177.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.08.2006 20.1N 178.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.08.2006 19.6N 179.8E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.08.2006 18.9N 178.5E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.08.2006 18.6N 176.9E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.08.2006 19.0N 175.6E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.08.2006 20.0N 174.5E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.08.2006 21.5N 173.6E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 240559 ** WTIN20 DEMS 240610 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 24-08-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTH ANDAMAN SEA AND PARTS OF CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 29 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ?????????? ** WTPQ20 BABJ 240600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD06 INITIAL TIME 240600 UTC 00HR 20.3N 112.9E 1002HPA 13M/S P12HR N 10KM/H P+24HR 22.5N 112.4E 1000HPA 12M/S= ** WTSS20 VHHH 240745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 240600 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (20.3 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (113.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 60 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250600 UTC TWO TWO POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (22.5 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (112.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260600 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 240745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 240600 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (20.3 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (113.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 60 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250600 UTC TWO TWO POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (22.5 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (112.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260600 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTNT24 KNHC 240830 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 0900 UTC THU AUG 24 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 36.3W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 35NE 35SE 45SW 45NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 120SE 120SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 36.3W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 35.5W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 20.6N 38.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 21.8N 41.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 23.0N 44.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 24.5N 47.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 27.5N 50.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 30.5N 51.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 34.5N 49.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 36.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA ** WTNT44 KNHC 240830 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 500 AM EDT THU AUG 24 2006 CONVECTION HAS BEEN PULSING IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE STORM WITH A SYMMETRIC OUTFLOW PATTERN FORMING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE CONSERVATIVELY KEPT AT 40 KT IN BETWEEN SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35-45 KT. A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING APPEARS LIKELY DUE TO SLOWLY INCREASING SSTS AND FAIRLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY SHEAR IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER... SSTS RISE A BIT FASTER BUT GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOUTHERLY SHEAR WILL INCREASE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE DIVERGES BEYOND TWO DAYS... AS SHIPS NEVER MAKES DEBBY A HURRICANE WHILE THE GFDL INTENSIFIES THE SYSTEM INTO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BY DAY THREE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE MODELS AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS ABOUT THE SAME...300/17. THIS GENERAL TRACK IS ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR-TERM AS THE CYCLONE MOVES IN BETWEEN A BUILDING MIDDLE-LEVEL HIGH TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. BEYOND 24-36 HOURS... A BREAK IN THE TROPICAL RIDGE FORMS NEAR 55W. THIS BREAK SHOULD ALLOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MOVE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST THEN NORTH... THOUGH MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW FAST TO TAKE DEBBY NORTHWARD. THE GFDL IS THE FASTEST MODEL.... SHOOTING THE STORM INTO THE MID-LATITUDES NORTH OF 40N IN ABOUT 5 DAYS. THE NOGAPS IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER... SHOWING A WEAKER TROUGH AND KEEPING DEBBY SOUTH OF 32N THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY A LITTLE FASTER THAN 6 HOURS AGO... AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT... A BIT SOUTH OF THE GUNS CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0900Z 19.6N 36.3W 40 KT 12HR VT 24/1800Z 20.6N 38.7W 40 KT 24HR VT 25/0600Z 21.8N 41.6W 45 KT 36HR VT 25/1800Z 23.0N 44.5W 50 KT 48HR VT 26/0600Z 24.5N 47.0W 55 KT 72HR VT 27/0600Z 27.5N 50.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 28/0600Z 30.5N 51.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 29/0600Z 34.5N 49.5W 65 KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA ** WTNT34 KNHC 240831 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 500 AM AST THU AUG 24 2006 ...DEBBY EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUT TO SEA... AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.3 WEST OR ABOUT 845 MILES...1360 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. DEBBY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...19.6 N...36.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA ** WTPA22 PHFO 240835 *** TCMCP2 HURRICANE IOKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 0900 UTC THU AUG 24 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 172.3W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 20SW 35NW. 50 KT.......100NE 70SE 50SW 90NW. 34 KT.......180NE 120SE 90SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 140SE 100SW 170NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 172.3W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 172.0W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 19.0N 173.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 35NW. 50 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 90NW. 34 KT...180NE 120SE 90SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 19.4N 174.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 35NW. 50 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 100NW. 34 KT...180NE 100SE 100SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 19.6N 175.6W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 35NW. 50 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 90NW. 34 KT...180NE 100SE 100SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 19.6N 177.1W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 70SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 19.1N 180.0E MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 80SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 18.7N 176.8E MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 18.5N 173.6E MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 172.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z $$ FORECASTER R BALLARD ** WTPZ45 KNHC 240835 *** TCDEP5 HURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006 200 AM PDT THU AUG 24 2006 HURRICANE ILEANA HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN...CURRENT INTENSITY IS NOW 95 KT. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE EYE HAS EXPANDED AND CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED. 0312Z 85 GHZ SSM/I MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THE FORMATION OF AN OUTER EYEWALL AS PART OF AN POSSIBLE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. HOWEVER, WE DO NOT EXPECT ELENA TO RE-INTENSIFY AS IT IS MOVING OVER COOLER WATER...AND ALL INTENSITY AND DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS MORE RAPID WEAKENING THAN IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ILEANA'S FORWARD SPEED HAS DECREASED...INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 300/9. OUR TRACK FORECAST IS CONSISTENT, BUT SLIGHTLY MORE NORTH AND SLOWER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE IN DEFERENCE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL, UKMO, NOGAPS AND GFS MODELS AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE. THE WIND RADII REMAIN THE SAME GIVEN THE LACK OF NEW OBSERVATIONS AND THE FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0900Z 19.9N 114.2W 95 KT 12HR VT 24/1800Z 20.5N 115.3W 90 KT 24HR VT 25/0600Z 21.3N 116.6W 85 KT 36HR VT 25/1800Z 21.8N 117.5W 65 KT 48HR VT 26/0600Z 22.2N 118.6W 55 KT 72HR VT 27/0600Z 22.5N 120.1W 40 KT 96HR VT 28/0600Z 22.5N 121.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 29/0600Z 22.5N 123.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER FIORINO/AVILA ** WTPZ25 KNHC 240836 *** TCMEP5 HURRICANE ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006 0900 UTC THU AUG 24 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 114.2W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..250NE 200SE 100SW 125NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 114.2W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 113.8W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 20.5N 115.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 21.3N 116.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 21.8N 117.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. 34 KT...105NE 90SE 80SW 95NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 22.2N 118.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. 34 KT...105NE 90SE 80SW 95NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 22.5N 120.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 22.5N 121.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 22.5N 123.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 114.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z $$ FORECASTER FIORINO/AVILA ** WTCA44 TJSJ 240838 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL DEBBY ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 11 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL042006 500 AM AST JUEVES 24 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...SE ESPERA QUE DEBBY SE MANTENGA EN EL MAR... A LAS 500 AM AST...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL DEBBY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 19.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 36.3 OESTE O COMO A 845 MILLAS...1360 KM...AL OESTE-NORESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE. DEBBY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 20 MPH...32 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE POR LOS PROXIMOS UNO O DOS DIAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 45 MPH...75 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA UN LENTO FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 50 MILLAS...85 KILOMETROS...DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1003 MILIBARAS...29.62 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 AM AST...19.6 NORTE...36.3 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 20 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1003 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1100 AM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR BLAKE/AVILA ** WTPA32 PHFO 240845 *** TCPCP2 BULLETIN HURRICANE IOKE ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 1100 PM HST WED AUG 23 2006 ...IOKE RESTRENGTHENS TO A MAJOR HURRICANE FAR TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS... AT 1100 PM HST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 172.3 WEST OR ABOUT 225 MILES NORTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND...AND ABOUT 955 MILES WEST OF HONOLULU. IOKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM HST POSITION...18.6 N...172.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM HST. $$ FORECASTER R BALLARD ** WTPA42 PHFO 240853 *** TCDCP2 HURRICANE IOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 1100 PM HST WED AUG 23 2006 IOKE HAS BEEN INTENSIFYING THIS EVENING. INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THE EYE IS BECOMING WELL DEFINED AND THE CDO IS BECOMING MORE SYMMETRIC AROUND THE CENTER. THE T-NUMBERS FROM HFO...SAB...AND AFWA HAVE ALL INCREASED TO T5.5 AND JTWC HAS MAINTAINED A T5.0. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 100 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...BRINGING IOKE BACK TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS /CATEGORY 3 ON THE SAFFIR- SIMPSON SCALE/ ONCE AGAIN. THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING NEAR 305/7 FOR THE PAST SIX HOURS... ALTHOUGH MORE RECENTLY THE MOTION APPEARS A BIT CLOSER TO DUE WEST. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE DATELINE HAS BEEN RETROGRADING WESTWARD...AND STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER RIDGING NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STEERING IOKE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST COURSE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE GFS...HAVE BEEN BACKING OFF ON THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST OF IOKE IN THE LATER TIME PERIODS...AND THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED A BIT MORE NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALSO FOLLOWS THIS TREND. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR MODEST INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE NEGLIGIBLE UNDERNEATH STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...WHICH IS MOVING WESTWARD ROUGHLY IN TANDEM WITH THE CYCLONE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST BEYOND 36 HOURS BECOMES A BIT MORE CHALLENGING. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE WESTWARD MOVING UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO OUTRUN IOKE. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD BETWEEN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND IOKE IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE INCREASING NORTHERLY SHEAR AFTER 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR THAT IOKE WILL HAVE TO ENDURE...WITH THE GFS ON THE STRONGEST END OF THE GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST WEAKENING TREND IN THE LONGER RANGE REMAINS MORE MODEST THAN INDICATED BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND MAINTAINS THAT IOKE WILL CROSS THE DATELINE INTO A THE WEST PACIFIC IN ABOUT 72 HOURS AS A TYPHOON. NOTE THAT NAMED TROPICAL CYCLONES CROSSING INTO THE WEST PACIFIC BASIN MAINTAIN THEIR ORIGINAL NAME. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0900Z 18.6N 172.3W 100 KT 12HR VT 24/1800Z 19.0N 173.3W 100 KT 24HR VT 25/0600Z 19.4N 174.4W 105 KT 36HR VT 25/1800Z 19.6N 175.6W 105 KT 48HR VT 26/0600Z 19.6N 177.1W 100 KT 72HR VT 27/0600Z 19.1N 180.0E 90 KT 96HR VT 28/0600Z 18.7N 176.8E 85 KT 120HR VT 29/0600Z 18.5N 173.6E 70 KT $$ FORECASTER R BALLARD ** WTSS20 VHHH 241045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 240900 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (20.8 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (113.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 60 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250900 UTC TWO THREE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (23.0 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (112.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260900 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 241045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 240900 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (20.8 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (113.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 60 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250900 UTC TWO THREE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (23.0 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (112.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260900 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND.