** WTSR20 WSSS 231800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 240000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD05 INITIAL TIME 240000 UTC 00HR 19.5N 111.8E 1002HPA 13M/S P12HR NNE 10KM/H P+24HR 21.0N 112.0E 998HPA 17M/S= ** WTSS20 VHHH 240145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 240000 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR HAINAN ISLAND WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (19.5 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (112.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 60 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250000 UTC TWO ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (21.0 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (112.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260000 UTC TWO TWO POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (22.2 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (112.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 270000 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 240145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 240000 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR HAINAN ISLAND WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (19.5 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (112.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 60 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250000 UTC TWO ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (21.0 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (112.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260000 UTC TWO TWO POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (22.2 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (112.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 270000 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 240000 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD06 INITIAL TIME 240000 UTC 00HR 19.5N 111.8E 1002HPA 13M/S P12HR NNE 10KM/H P+24HR 21.0N 112.0E 998HPA 17M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 240000 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD06 INITIAL TIME 240000 UTC 00HR 19.5N 111.8E 1002HPA 13M/S P12HR NNE 10KM/H P+24HR 21.0N 112.0E 998HPA 17M/S= ** WTNT34 KNHC 240234 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 1100 PM AST WED AUG 23 2006 ...DEBBY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AGAIN OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.7 WEST OR ABOUT 730 MILES...1175 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. DEBBY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR... AND A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...18.8 N...34.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTNT24 KNHC 240234 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 0300 UTC THU AUG 24 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 34.7W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 35NE 35SE 45SW 45NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 120SE 120SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 34.7W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 33.9W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 19.8N 36.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 35NE 35SE 45SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 21.1N 39.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 22.3N 42.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 23.6N 45.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 26.4N 49.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 29.5N 51.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 33.0N 51.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 34.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTPZ25 KNHC 240234 *** TCMEP5 HURRICANE ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006 0300 UTC THU AUG 24 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 113.5W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..250NE 200SE 100SW 125NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 113.5W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 113.2W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 20.1N 114.9W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 20.7N 116.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 21.2N 117.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 21.6N 118.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 22.0N 120.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 22.5N 121.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 22.5N 123.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 113.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART ** WTCA44 TJSJ 240238 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL DEBBY ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 10 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL042006 1100 PM AST MIERCOLES 23 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...DEBBY TORNANDOSE MEJOR ORGANIZADA SOBRE EL ESTE DEL ATLANTICO... A LAS 1100 PM AST...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL DEBBY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 18.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 34.7 OESTE O COMO A 730 MILLAS...1175 KM...AL OESTE NORESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE. DEBBY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 18 MPH...30 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE UN MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A NOROESTE CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 45 MPH...75 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA POCO FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 50 MILLAS...85 KILOMETROS...DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1003 MILIBARAS...29.62 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 PM AST...18.8 NORTE...34.7 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 18 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1003 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 AM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR STEWART ** WTNT44 KNHC 240239 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 1100 PM EDT WED AUG 23 2006 AFTER THE BRIEF WEAKENING PHASE DEBBY WENT THROUGH EARLIER AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE CYCLONE HAS STARTED TO MAKE A COMEBACK. DEEP CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA INDICATE GOOD BANDING FEATURES AND THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS UNDERNEATH THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CANOPY. THE INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 40 KT AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DESPITE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF ONLY 30 KT FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/16. CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES INDICATE DEBBY IS BASICALLY ON TRACK. A GRADUAL MOTION CLOSE TO 290 DEGREES IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW FORCING THE CYCLONE ON A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD TRACK NOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED ON THE WEST SIDE OF DEBBY. OTHERWISE DEBBY IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 4 DAYS TO TO BE STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH. BY THE DAY 4-5 TIME PERIOD...ALL THE MODELS AGREE THAT A WEAKNESS WILL DEVELOP IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BETWEEN 50W-55W LONGITUDE... ALLOWING DEBBY TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THAT WEAKNESS. THE UKMET AND GFDL MODELS INDICATE RECURVATURE TO THE NORTHEAST BY DAY 5... WHEREAS THE REST OF THE MODELS MERELY SLOW DOWN THE CYCLONE AND MOVE IT NORTHWARD INTO THE WEAKNESS. THE GFS IS NOW SUGGESTING THAT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MAY RUN OFF AND LEAVE DEBBY CAUGHT IN THE RIDGE AXIS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE GUNA...GUNS...AND CONU CONSENSUS MODELS. DEBBY IS CURRENTLY OVER 26C SSTS...THE COOLEST WATER IT WILL ENCOUNTER DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...SO SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER WARMER SSTS. BY 72 HOURS... THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AT LEAST 20 KT...WHICH WILL INHIBIT INTENSIFICATION DESPITE DEBBY MOVING OVER 28C AND WARMER SSTS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR VECTOR WILL BE ALIGNED NEARLY ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK... DEBBY COULD STILL BECOME A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE...ESPECIALLY BY DAY 5 WHEN THE CYCLONE WILL BE SITUATED IN THE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND...THUS...IN A LOWER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0300Z 18.8N 34.7W 40 KT 12HR VT 24/1200Z 19.8N 36.8W 40 KT 24HR VT 25/0000Z 21.1N 39.7W 45 KT 36HR VT 25/1200Z 22.3N 42.5W 50 KT 48HR VT 26/0000Z 23.6N 45.0W 55 KT 72HR VT 27/0000Z 26.4N 49.2W 60 KT 96HR VT 28/0000Z 29.5N 51.5W 65 KT 120HR VT 29/0000Z 33.0N 51.5W 65 KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTPA32 PHFO 240245 *** TCPCP2 BULLETIN HURRICANE IOKE ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 500 PM HST WED AUG 23 2006 AT 500 PM HST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 171.7 WEST OR ABOUT 180 MILES NORTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND AND ABOUT 920 MILES WEST OF HONOLULU...OAHU. IOKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. IOKE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST...THEN TO SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 971 MB...28.67 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 PM HST POSITION...18.3 N...171.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM HST. $$ FORECASTER DONALDSON ** WTPA22 PHFO 240245 *** TCMCP2 HURRICANE IOKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 0300 UTC THU AUG 24 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 171.7W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 20SW 35NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. 34 KT.......140NE 90SE 70SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..190NE 120SE 90SW 160NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 171.7W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 171.4W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 18.8N 172.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 35NW. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 70SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 19.4N 173.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 35NW. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 70SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 19.9N 174.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 70SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 20.0N 176.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 70SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 19.6N 179.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 80SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 18.2N 177.7E MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 17.5N 174.5E MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 171.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER DONALDSON ** WTPA42 PHFO 240256 *** TCDCP2 HURRICANE IOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 500 PM HST WED AUG 23 2006 CURRENT INTENSITIES FROM CPHC..AFWA AND JTWC WERE ALL 5.0 ON THE 130 PM HST FIXES. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED A RAGGED...CLOUD-FILLED EYE. WE HAVE KEPT THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 90 KT. FINAL T-NUMBERS ON TWO OF THE FIXES HAD DROPPED TO 4.5 BUT IMAGERY RIGHT AFTER FIX TIME SHOWED THE T-NUMBER BACK UP TO 5.0 AS THE EYE BECAME BETTER DEFINED. IOKE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...TOWARDS 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT...TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND TOWARD A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEST OF THE DATELINE. THE DYNAMIC MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT. THE MODELS SHOW THE TRACK CONTINUING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE WEST... THEN TOWARDS THE WEST SOUTHWEST. THIS TRACK SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON THE UPPER AIR FORECASTS. A LOW ALOFT NEAR 33N 171E WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS...THEN NORTHWEST. AN ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD NEAR 25N 175W AND PUSH IOKE WEST...THEN WEST SOUTHWEST. THE FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS TRACK WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD MOTION TO BETTER MATCH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE FORECAST INTENSITIES ARE LITTLE-CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES UNCHANGED AND LITTLE SHEAR...INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTER 48 HOURS...SHEAR WILL INCREASE AND IOKE WILL START WEAKENING...WITH SLOW WEAKENING CONTINUING THROUGH DAY 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0300Z 18.3N 171.7W 90 KT 12HR VT 24/1200Z 18.8N 172.5W 90 KT 24HR VT 25/0000Z 19.4N 173.6W 90 KT 36HR VT 25/1200Z 19.9N 174.9W 90 KT 48HR VT 26/0000Z 20.0N 176.3W 90 KT 72HR VT 27/0000Z 19.6N 179.1W 85 KT 96HR VT 28/0000Z 18.2N 177.7E 75 KT 120HR VT 29/0000Z 17.5N 174.5E 65 KT $$ FORECASTER DONALDSON ** WTPZ45 KNHC 240258 *** TCDEP5 HURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006 800 PM PDT WED AUG 23 2006 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SLIGHTLY COOLER INNER CORE CLOUD TOPS THIS EVENING...AND A MORE DISTINCT...LESS RAGGED...30 NMI EYE. WATER VAPORY IMAGERY REVEALS A WELL DEVELOPED OUTFLOW JET OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT...WHERE THE COLDER CLOUD TOPS RESIDE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 90 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES...WITH A CIRA AMSU-A ESTIMATE AT 102 KT...AND AN ADT CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 117 KT FROM CIMSS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS A BLEND OF THESE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND REMAINS AT 105 KT. THERE STILL IS A 12 TO 18 HOUR WINDOW OF FURTHER STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND WITHIN A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE ...THE INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATES SOME STRENGTHENING BEFORE A WEAKENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST COMMENCES. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 300/12. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT A MID- TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WEST OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN PACIFIC FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING MID TO UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE PACIFIC COAST. THE 18Z GFDL RUN HAS BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON IT'S RAPID NORTHWARD MOTION INTO THE DEVELOPING WEAKNESS...NOW INDICATING A NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT BEYOND DAY 3. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO THE GUNA CONSENSUS AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST BY DAY 4...REFLECTING THE LOW-LAYER FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE SOCORRO ISLAND OBSERVATION AND A CIRA/NESDIS AMSU-A TC SIZE ESTIMATION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0300Z 19.4N 113.5W 105 KT 12HR VT 24/1200Z 20.1N 114.9W 110 KT 24HR VT 25/0000Z 20.7N 116.3W 100 KT 36HR VT 25/1200Z 21.2N 117.4W 80 KT 48HR VT 26/0000Z 21.6N 118.4W 70 KT 72HR VT 27/0000Z 22.0N 120.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 28/0000Z 22.5N 121.5W 35 KT 120HR VT 29/0000Z 22.5N 123.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART ** WTPA32 PHFO 240315 *** TCPCP2 BULLETIN HURRICANE IOKE ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 500 PM HST WED AUG 23 2006 AT 500 PM HST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 171.7 WEST OR ABOUT 180 MILES NORTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND AND ABOUT 920 MILES WEST OF HONOLULU...OAHU. IOKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. IOKE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST...THEN TO SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 971 MB...28.67 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 PM HST POSITION...18.3 N...171.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM HST. $$ FORECASTER DONALDSON ** WTSS20 VHHH 240445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 240300 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (19.9 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (112.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 60 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250300 UTC TWO ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (21.5 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (112.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260300 UTC TWO TWO POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (22.5 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (112.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 270300 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 240445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 240300 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (19.9 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (112.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 60 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250300 UTC TWO ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (21.5 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (112.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260300 UTC TWO TWO POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (22.5 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (112.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 270300 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND.