** WTPA32 PHFO 231803 *** TCPCP2 BULLETIN HURRICANE IOKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 800 AM HST WED AUG 23 2006 ...HURRICANE IOKE CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY AWAY FROM JOHNSTON ISLAND... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND. AT 800 AM HST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 170.9 WEST OR ABOUT 110 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND AND ABOUT 890 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU. IOKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IOKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 971 MB...28.67 INCHES. CONDITIONS ON JOHNSTON ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. THE HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING. REPEATING THE 800 AM HST POSITION...17.6 N...170.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM HST. $$ FORECASTER KODAMA ** WTPQ20 BABJ 231800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD05 INITIAL TIME 231800 UTC 00HR 19.0N 111.5E 1002HPA 12M/S P12HR N 10KM/H P+24HR 20.5N 111.5E 998HPA 18M/S= ** WTSS20 VHHH 231945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 231800 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR HAINAN ISLAND WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (19.0 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (111.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 60 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 241800 UTC TWO ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (20.7 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (111.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 251800 UTC TWO ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (21.5 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (110.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 261800 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 231945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 231800 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR HAINAN ISLAND WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (19.0 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (111.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 60 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 241800 UTC TWO ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (20.7 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (111.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 251800 UTC TWO ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (21.5 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (110.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 261800 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTNT24 KNHC 232023 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 2100 UTC WED AUG 23 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 33.0W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 120SE 120SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 33.0W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 32.5W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 19.0N 35.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 20.3N 38.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 21.5N 41.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 22.8N 44.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 25.5N 48.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 28.5N 51.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 32.0N 52.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 33.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTNT44 KNHC 232023 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 500 PM EDT WED AUG 23 2006 THE ORGANIZATION OF DEBBY HAS DETERIORATED SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE CIRCULATION CENTER RUNNING NORTHWESTWARD AHEAD OF DECAYING CONVECTION. WHILE THIS IS PARTLY DIURNAL...DEBBY IS MOVING THROUGH A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS AND OVER 26C WATERS. DVORAK T NUMBERS ARE DOWN SHARPLY...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT...AT BEST...ONLY SLOW DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...BUT DEBBY WILL BE MOVING BACK OVER WARMER WATERS AFTER THAT. ALTHOUGH DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER SOUTHERLY SHEAR FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THIS SHOULD NOT PREVENT A RESTRENGTHENING AND THE LONGER RANGE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. DEBBY CONTINUES TO GAIN LATITUDE AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 305/17. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THINKING AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TRACK. DEBBY CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES. A SIGNIFICANT WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUS ON A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH AHEAD OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROUGH...WITH DIFFERENCES ONLY IN THE RATE OF RECURVATURE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE GUNA CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/2100Z 17.9N 33.0W 40 KT 12HR VT 24/0600Z 19.0N 35.4W 40 KT 24HR VT 24/1800Z 20.3N 38.3W 45 KT 36HR VT 25/0600Z 21.5N 41.2W 50 KT 48HR VT 25/1800Z 22.8N 44.0W 55 KT 72HR VT 26/1800Z 25.5N 48.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 27/1800Z 28.5N 51.5W 65 KT 120HR VT 28/1800Z 32.0N 52.0W 65 KT $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTNT34 KNHC 232023 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 500 PM AST WED AUG 23 2006 ...DEBBY LOSES SOME ORGANIZATION AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD... AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.0 WEST OR ABOUT 610 MILES...980 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. DEBBY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...17.9 N...33.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTPZ25 KNHC 232032 *** TCMEP5 HURRICANE ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006 2100 UTC WED AUG 23 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 112.7W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 125 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT.......125NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 200SE 100SW 125NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 112.7W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 112.1W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 19.8N 114.2W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 20.5N 116.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 125 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 21.1N 117.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 21.5N 118.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 22.2N 120.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 22.5N 121.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 22.5N 123.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 112.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z $$ FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB ** WTPZ45 KNHC 232032 *** TCDEP5 HURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006 200 PM PDT WED AUG 23 2006 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF ILEANA HAS DEGRADED SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE RECENTLY STARTED TO COOL AGAIN...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 105 KT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY EARLIER AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 100 AND 101 KT FROM UW CIMSS AND CIRA RESPECTIVELY. ADDITIONALLY...DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED WITH 90 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA... 102 KT FROM TAFB...AND 122 KT FROM THE UW CIMSS ADT. WHILE CYCLONES AT THIS INTENSITY SOMETIMES DEVELOP A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL STRUCTURE...THIS HAS NOT YET BEEN SEEN IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY. DESPITE AN APPARENT HALT TO INTENSIFICATION...ILEANA HAS ABOUT 12-24 HOURS TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS A LESS CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT OF COOLER WATERS AND MORE STABLE AIR. ACCORDINGLY... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT-TERM...FOLLOWED BY A RAPID DEMISE THEREAFTER. IN FACT...ILEANA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED AT 305/13. THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS PREDICTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WEAKENS AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE SLOWDOWN COULD BE ESPECIALLY PRONOUNCED BEYOND 48 HOURS AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE STEERING FLOW WILL COLLAPSE AT THE SAME TIME THE CYCLONE IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING. THIS EVOLUTION IS CREATING DIVERGENCE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE AS THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS DIFFER NOT ONLY IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN...BUT ALSO THE DEPTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES AN INCREASINGLY SHALLOW SYSTEM AT DAYS 4 AND 5...WHICH WARRANTS A TURN TO THE WEST WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. SURPRISINGLY...THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUE TO SUFFER FROM POOR INITIALIZATION OF THE VORTEX STRENGTH AND STRUCTURE...RESULTING IN A TRACK MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN ANY OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE. REPORTS FROM A NEARBY STATION AT SOCORRO ISLAND...OPERATED BY THE MEXICAN NAVY...INDICATED PEAK SUSTAINED WINDS OF 51 KT WITH GUSTS TO 66 KT AROUND 1500 UTC. SIMILARLY...AN 1800 UTC REPORT FROM SHIP DGGV IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT WAS USEFUL IN DEFINING THE RADIUS OF 12 FT SEAS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/2100Z 19.0N 112.7W 105 KT 12HR VT 24/0600Z 19.8N 114.2W 115 KT 24HR VT 24/1800Z 20.5N 116.0W 105 KT 36HR VT 25/0600Z 21.1N 117.3W 85 KT 48HR VT 25/1800Z 21.5N 118.2W 70 KT 72HR VT 26/1800Z 22.2N 120.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 27/1800Z 22.5N 121.5W 35 KT 120HR VT 28/1800Z 22.5N 123.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB ** WTCA44 TJSJ 232039 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL DEBBY ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 9 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL042006 500 PM AST MIERCOLES 23 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...DEBBY PERDIENDO ORGANIZACION A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVE HACIA EL NOROESTE... A LAS 500 PM AST...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL DEBBY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 17.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 33.0 OESTE O COMO A 610 MILLAS...980 KM...AL OESTE NORESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE. DEBBY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 20 MPH...32 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE UN MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 45 MPH...75 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA POCO FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 50 MILLAS...85 KILOMETROS...DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1002 MILIBARAS...29.59 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 PM AST...17.9 NORTE...33.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 20 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1002 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1100 PM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN ** WTPA22 PHFO 232044 *** TCMCP2 HURRICANE IOKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 2100 UTC WED AUG 23 2006 THE HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND IS CANCELLED AS OF 11 AM HST. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 171.1W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 316 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 20SW 35NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. 34 KT.......140NE 90SE 70SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..190NE 120SE 90SW 160NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 171.1W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 170.9W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 18.5N 171.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 35NW. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 70SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 19.1N 173.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 35NW. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 70SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 19.7N 174.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 35NW. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 70SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 20.0N 175.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 70SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 19.9N 178.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 70SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 18.6N 179.0E MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 17.7N 176.1E MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 171.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KODAMA ** WTPA32 PHFO 232045 *** TCPCP2 BULLETIN HURRICANE IOKE ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 1100 AM HST WED AUG 23 2006 ...HURRICANE IOKE CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY AWAY FROM JOHNSTON ISLAND... THE HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND IS CANCELLED AS OF 11 AM HST. AT 1100 AM HST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 171.1 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES NORTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND AND ABOUT 890 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU. IOKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IOKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 971 MB...28.67 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM HST POSITION...17.8 N...171.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM HST. $$ FORECASTER KODAMA ** WTPA42 PHFO 232046 *** TCDCP2 HURRICANE IOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 1100 AM HST WED AUG 23 2006 SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A CIRRUS FILLED EYE WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN EYEWALL. A MICROWAVE PASS FROM AMSU AT 1452 UTC ALSO INDICATED THAT THE EYEWALL WAS OPEN IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAME IN AT 90 KT FROM CPHC...AFWA AND JTWC. THE SAB ESTIMATE WAS 102 KT. THE OBJECTIVE AODT ESTIMATE WAS 90 KT. BASED ON THE CONSENSUS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 90 KT. IOKE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...316 DEGREES...AT 6 KT TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND TOWARD A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEST OF THE DATELINE. THE DYNAMIC MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AS A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE. THE FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE DYNAMIC CONSENSUS... GUNS...GUNA AND CONU...WITH THE ONLY DIFFERENCE BEING A SLIGHTLY SLOWER MOTION AT DAYS 4 AND 5. OTHER THAN A SLIGHT NORTHWARD NUDGE INITIALLY...THIS TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSIS VALUES HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DECREASING...DOWN TO 4.9 M/S AT 1800 UTC...AND MODELS KEEP LOW SHEAR VALUES THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS FOLLOWED BY THE INTRODUCTION OF NORTHERLY SHEAR AFTERWARD. IOKE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER SST VALUES AT AROUND 28C WHICH IS MORE THAN ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE INTENSITY. THUS...OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 DAYS THE FORECAST MAINTAINS THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 90 KT WHICH IS ROUGHLY IN LINE WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE OBJECTIVE AIDS. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE DIVERGES CONSIDERABLY FROM 48 HOURS WITH SHIPS DROPPING IOKE DOWN TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AND THE DYNAMIC MODELS SHOWING SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION THROUGH 120 HOURS. SHIPS GUIDANCE WILL NOT BE FOLLOWED IN THE LONGER RANGE DUE TO QUESTIONABLE RESULTS IN THE SST POTENTIAL COMPONENT. HOWEVER...SINCE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING BETWEEN 160W TO 170W...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR IOKE TO WEAKEN SLOWLY FROM DAYS 2 THROUGH 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/2100Z 17.8N 171.1W 90 KT 12HR VT 24/0600Z 18.5N 171.8W 90 KT 24HR VT 24/1800Z 19.1N 173.0W 90 KT 36HR VT 25/0600Z 19.7N 174.2W 90 KT 48HR VT 25/1800Z 20.0N 175.6W 90 KT 72HR VT 26/1800Z 19.9N 178.4W 85 KT 96HR VT 27/1800Z 18.6N 179.0E 75 KT 120HR VT 28/1800Z 17.7N 176.1E 65 KT $$ FORECASTER KODAMA ** WTPN33 PHNC 232200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/232135AUG2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 10E (ILEANA) WARNING NR 010 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 231800Z --- NEAR 18.5N 112.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.5N 112.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 19.8N 114.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 20.5N 116.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 21.1N 117.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 21.5N 118.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 22.2N 120.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 22.5N 121.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 22.5N 123.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 232200Z POSITION NEAR 18.9N 112.8W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 28 FEET. AT 231800Z, HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED 894 NM SSE OF SAN DIEGO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240400Z, 241000Z, 241600Z AND 242200Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 01C (IOKE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PHNC 232200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/232140AUG2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 01C (IOKE) WARNING NR 016 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 231800Z --- NEAR 17.6N 170.9W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 316 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 170.9W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 18.5N 171.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 19.1N 173.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 19.7N 174.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 20.0N 175.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 19.9N 178.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 18.6N 179.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 17.7N 176.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT --- REMARKS: 232200Z POSITION NEAR 17.9N 171.2W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 34 FEET. AT 231800Z HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED 690 NM WSW OF LIHUE. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240400Z, 241000Z, 241600Z AND 242200Z. REFER TO HURRICANE (ILEANA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTSS20 VHHH 232245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 232100 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR HAINAN ISLAND WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (19.3 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (111.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 60 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 242100 UTC TWO ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (20.9 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (111.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 252100 UTC TWO TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (22.0 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (111.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 262100 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 232245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 232100 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR HAINAN ISLAND WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (19.3 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (111.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 60 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 242100 UTC TWO ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (20.9 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (111.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 252100 UTC TWO TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (22.0 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (111.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 262100 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPN21 PGTW 232330 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 230151ZAUG2006// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230151AUG2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.3N 112.3E TO 22.4N 111.6E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM- AGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA AT 232200Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 112.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 111.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 112.5E, APPROXIMATELY 220 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED WEST OF THE CENTER. A 231820Z AMSR-E PASS AND A 231958Z AMSU-B PASS DEPICTED WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI- CIRCLE AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY FROM HAINAN ISLAND. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE LLCC REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SOUTH OF AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED AT 25N 115E, OVER SOUTHEAST CHINA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THIS SYSTEM HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY DUE TO DECREASED INTERACTION WITH LAND SO THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 242330Z.//