** WTSR20 WSSS 230600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPA32 PHFO 231204 *** TCPCP2 BULLETIN HURRICANE IOKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 200 AM HST WED AUG 23 2006 ...HURRICANE IOKE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM JOHNSTON ISLAND... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND. AT 200 AM HST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 170.6 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND AND ABOUT 870 MILES WEST- SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU. IOKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IOKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 971 MB...28.67 INCHES. CONDITIONS ON JOHNSTON ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE. THE HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING. REPEATING THE 200 AM HST POSITION...17.3 N...170.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM HST. $$ FORECASTER R BALLARD/HOUSTON ** WTPA42 PHFO 231241 CCA *** TCDCP2 HURRICANE IOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14...CORRECTED NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 1100 PM HST TUE AUG 22 2006 INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE VARIOUS AGENCIES INDICATE THAT IOKE HAS MAINTAINED STRENGTH OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE EYE HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY ONCE AGAIN...THERE WAS A RENEWED BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER AS THE HURRICANE MADE ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO JOHNSTON ISLAND EARLIER THIS EVENING. THE 0507Z SSMI PASS SHOWED THAT JOHNSTON ISLAND WAS SQUARELY IN THE EASTERN EYEWALL OF IOKE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/8. IOKE IS CURRENTLY HEADING NORTHWEST TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW NEAR 28N 178E. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD AND WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH WILL ALLOW IOKE TO CONTINUE ON A NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...STRONGER RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF IOKE IS EXPECTED TO TURN THE HURRICANE ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY COURSE. SATELLITE DERIVED HIGH LEVEL WIND ANALYSES INDICATE THAT IOKE IS SKIRTING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. THERE IS STRONG SHEAR JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF IOKE...BUT THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE REMAINS UNDER RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER IOKE WILL ACTUALLY REDUCE SHEAR THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS. IN THE LONGER TERM...IOKE WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF A RATHER STRONG DIGGING TROUGH BETWEEN 160W AND 170W...WITH INCREASING NORTHERLY SHEAR INDUCING WEAKENING. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0900Z 17.2N 170.5W 90 KT 12HR VT 23/1800Z 17.9N 171.3W 90 KT 24HR VT 24/0600Z 18.7N 172.4W 90 KT 36HR VT 24/1800Z 19.4N 173.4W 90 KT 48HR VT 25/0600Z 20.2N 174.7W 90 KT 72HR VT 26/0600Z 20.9N 176.9W 90 KT 96HR VT 27/0600Z 20.3N 179.0W 85 KT 120HR VT 28/0600Z 19.5N 179.3E 80 KT $$ FORECASTER R BALLARD/HOUSTON ** WTPQ20 BABJ 231200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD05 INITIAL TIME 231200 UTC 00HR 18.5N 111.4E 1002HPA 12M/S P12HR N 10KM/H P+24HR 20.2N 111.0E 998HPA 18M/S= ** WTSS20 VHHH 231345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 231200 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR HAINAN ISLAND WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (18.5 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (111.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 60 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 241200 UTC TWO ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (20.4 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (111.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 251200 UTC TWO ONE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (21.2 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (110.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 261200 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 231345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 231200 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR HAINAN ISLAND WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (18.5 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (111.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 60 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 241200 UTC TWO ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (20.4 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (111.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 251200 UTC TWO ONE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (21.2 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (110.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 261200 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPA22 PHFO 231430 *** TCMCP2 HURRICANE IOKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 1500 UTC WED AUG 23 2006 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 170.7W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 20SW 35NW. 50 KT....... 85NE 70SE 55SW 70NW. 34 KT.......140NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..190NE 120SE 90SW 160NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 170.7W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 170.5W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 18.3N 171.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 35NW. 50 KT... 85NE 70SE 55SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 19.0N 172.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 35NW. 50 KT... 90NE 75SE 55SW 75NW. 34 KT...145NE 110SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 19.7N 173.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 35NW. 50 KT... 90NE 75SE 55SW 75NW. 34 KT...145NE 110SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 20.3N 175.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 85NE 70SE 55SW 75NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 20.5N 177.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 85NE 65SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...135NE 110SE 85SW 115NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 19.5N 179.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 18.5N 178.3E MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 170.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER R BALLARD/HOUSTON ** WTPA32 PHFO 231430 *** TCPCP2 BULLETIN HURRICANE IOKE ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 500 AM HST WED AUG 23 2006 ...HURRICANE IOKE CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY AWAY FROM JOHNSTON ISLAND... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND. AT 500 AM HST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 170.7 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES NORTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND AND ABOUT 870 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU. IOKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IOKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 971 MB...28.67 INCHES. CONDITIONS ON JOHNSTON ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE... AND THE HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING. REPEATING THE 500 AM HST POSITION...17.6 N...170.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM HST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST. $$ FORECASTER R BALLARD/HOUSTON ** WTNT44 KNHC 231442 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 1100 AM EDT WED AUG 23 2006 DEBBY APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY STRENGTHENING...BASED ON THIS MORNING'S QUIKSCAT PASS THAT HAD A COUPLE OF BELIEVABLE 45 KT VECTOR. THE SYSTEM ALSO SHOWED VERY GOOD ORGANIZATION ON AN 11Z MICROWAVE PASS. CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES NOT YET REFLECT THAT LEVEL OF ORGANIZATION...AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 35 TO 45 KT. THE SYSTEM IS MAINTAINING FAIRLY GOOD OUTFLOW UNDER LIGHT EASTERLY SHEAR. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ONLY SLOW DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT DEBBY WILL BE MOVING BACK OVER WARMER WATERS AFTER THAT. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT AN UPPER LOW WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY SHEAR LATE IN THE PERIOD THAT COULD SLOW THE INTENSIFICATION. NEVERTHELESS...THE EXPLICIT INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT TO NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/15. DEBBY CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE BASIC SYNOPTIC THINKING. A SIGNIFICANT WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALL GUIDANCE MODELS EXCEPT THE NOGAPS BEGIN A RECURVATURE BY DAY 5...AND THE NOGAPS DOES SO SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THERE HAS BEEN VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK AT THIS TIME...BUT I NOTE THAT MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A HARDER RIGHT TURN BY DAY 5 THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/1500Z 16.8N 31.5W 45 KT 12HR VT 24/0000Z 17.8N 33.6W 50 KT 24HR VT 24/1200Z 19.1N 36.5W 55 KT 36HR VT 25/0000Z 20.3N 39.3W 55 KT 48HR VT 25/1200Z 21.6N 42.2W 55 KT 72HR VT 26/1200Z 24.5N 47.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 27/1200Z 27.5N 51.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 28/1200Z 30.5N 53.0W 65 KT $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTNT24 KNHC 231442 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 1500 UTC WED AUG 23 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 31.5W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 120SE 120SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 31.5W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 30.8W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 17.8N 33.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 19.1N 36.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 20.3N 39.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 21.6N 42.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 24.5N 47.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 27.5N 51.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 30.5N 53.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 31.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTNT34 KNHC 231444 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 1100 AM AST WED AUG 23 2006 ...DEBBY SLOWLY GATHERING STRENGTH OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC... AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.5 WEST OR ABOUT 500 MILES...805 KM...WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. DEBBY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...16.8 N...31.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTPZ25 KNHC 231459 *** TCMEP5 HURRICANE ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006 1500 UTC WED AUG 23 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 111.5W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 125 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT.......125NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..250NE 200SE 100SW 125NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 111.5W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 111.0W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 19.0N 113.2W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...145NE 120SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 20.0N 115.2W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 20.8N 116.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 21.3N 118.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 65NE 60SE 60SW 65NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 105SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 22.0N 119.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 22.5N 121.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 22.5N 122.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 111.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB ** WTPZ45 KNHC 231459 *** TCDEP5 HURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006 800 AM PDT WED AUG 23 2006 THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OR THE VARIOUS SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. ASSUMING THAT THE EARLIER INTENSIFICATION TREND IS CONTINUING...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO 105 KT. HAVING SAID THAT...THE LAST FEW INFRARED IMAGES SUGGEST AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE COULD BE BEGINNING...WITH BREAKS IN THE INNER RING OF COLD CLOUD TOPS AND HINTS OF AN OUTER RING DEVELOPING. EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES TEND TO ARREST DEVELOPMENT DURING THE SHORT-TERM FOLLOWED BY SOME INTENSIFICATION. WHILE FORECASTING SUCH INNER CORE STRUCTURAL CHANGES IS DIFFICULT...ILEANA IS LOCATED WITHIN A SEEMINGLY OPTIMAL ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW ILEANA BECOMING A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE WILL ENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. THESE FACTORS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE A RAPID DECREASE IN INTENSITY... ESPECIALLY BEYOND 48 HOURS. THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST IS TO SHOW A QUICKER DEMISE ONCE ILEANA REACHES COOLER WATERS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/11...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE ANTICIPATED WEAKENING OF THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES HAS COMMENCED. ACCORDINGLY...THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS PREDICTED TO DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD... ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...AS THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO DIG SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN...BOTH OF WHICH CONTINUE TO SUFFER FROM POOR INITIALIZATION OF THE VORTEX STRENGTH AND STRUCTURE...ARE FURTHER SOUTH SINCE THEY DO NOT RESPOND TO THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH BUT THOSE SOLUTIONS APPEAR LESS LIKELY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE REMAINING MODELS AND REFLECTS ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A NEARBY STATION AT SOCORRO ISLAND OPERATED BY THE MEXICAN NAVY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 38 KT WITH GUSTS TO 53 KT AT 1200 UTC. THIS OBSERVATION WAS USEFUL IN ADJUSTING THE 34 KT WIND RADII INWARD IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/1500Z 18.1N 111.5W 105 KT 12HR VT 24/0000Z 19.0N 113.2W 110 KT 24HR VT 24/1200Z 20.0N 115.2W 115 KT 36HR VT 25/0000Z 20.8N 116.8W 95 KT 48HR VT 25/1200Z 21.3N 118.0W 85 KT 72HR VT 26/1200Z 22.0N 119.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 27/1200Z 22.5N 121.0W 40 KT 120HR VT 28/1200Z 22.5N 122.0W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB ** WTPA42 PHFO 231503 *** TCDCP2 HURRICANE IOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 500 AM HST WED AUG 23 2006 ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN AN INTERMITTENT RAGGED EYE FEATURE APPARENT IN THE INFRARED IMAGERY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...FOR THE MOST PART THE EYE REMAINS CLOUD-FILLED. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE REMAINED CONSTANT FROM ALL THE AGENCIES OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS...AND WE WILL MAINTAIN A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 90 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/6. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...ESPECIALLY IN THE NEAR TERM. THROUGH THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS...IOKE WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRAWN SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND TOWARD A NEARLY STATIONARY EXTRATROPICAL LOW JUST WEST OF THE DATELINE NEAR 28N. AFTERWARD...THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC WESTERLIES...AND STRONG DEEP LAYER RIDGING BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF IOKE WHICH WILL FORCE THE CYCLONE BACK TOWARD THE WEST- SOUTHWEST. THE MODEST WESTERLY SHEAR APPEARS TO BE RELAXING AS SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVING OUTFLOW OVER IOKE. MODELS AGREE THAT THE SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THROUGH 36 HOURS AS IOKE MOVES UNDERNEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. THE SSTS ARE WARM AND SO CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING. IN THE LONGER TERM...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT MORE QUICKLY WESTWARD AND IOKE WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF A RATHER STRONG DIGGING TROUGH BETWEEN ABOUT 160W AND 170W...WITH INCREASING NORTHERLY SHEAR INDUCING WEAKENING. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/1500Z 17.6N 170.7W 90 KT 12HR VT 24/0000Z 18.3N 171.5W 90 KT 24HR VT 24/1200Z 19.0N 172.7W 95 KT 36HR VT 25/0000Z 19.7N 173.9W 95 KT 48HR VT 25/1200Z 20.3N 175.0W 90 KT 72HR VT 26/1200Z 20.5N 177.6W 85 KT 96HR VT 27/1200Z 19.5N 179.8W 75 KT 120HR VT 28/1200Z 18.5N 178.3E 65 KT $$ FORECASTER R BALLARD/HOUSTON ** WTPN32 PHNC 231600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/231540AUG2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 01C (IOKE) WARNING NR 015 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 231200Z --- NEAR 17.6N 170.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 170.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 18.3N 171.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 19.0N 172.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 19.7N 173.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 20.3N 175.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 20.5N 177.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 19.5N 179.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 18.5N 178.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT --- REMARKS: 231600Z POSITION NEAR 17.8N 171.0W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232200Z, 240400Z, 241000Z AND 241600Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 10E (ILEANA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTCA44 TJSJ 231531 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL DEBBY ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 8 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL042006 1100 AM AST MIERCOLES 23 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...DEBBY ADQUIRIENDO FUERZA LENTAMENTE LEJOS EN EL ESTE DEL ATLANTICO... A LAS 1100 AM AST...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL DEBBY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 16.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 31.5 OESTE O COMO A 500 MILLAS...805 KM...AL OESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE. DEBBY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 17 MPH...28 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 50 MPH...85 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA LA CONTINUACION DEL FORTALECIMIENTO LENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 50 MILLAS...85 KILOMETROS...DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1000 MILIBARAS...29.53 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 AM AST...16.8 NORTE...31.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 17 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1000 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 PM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN ** WTPN33 PHNC 231600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/231535AUG2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 10E (ILEANA) WARNING NR 009 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 231200Z --- NEAR 17.8N 111.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.8N 111.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 19.0N 113.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 20.0N 115.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 20.8N 116.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 21.3N 118.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 22.0N 119.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 22.5N 121.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 22.5N 122.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: 231600Z POSITION NEAR 18.2N 111.7W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 27 FEET. AT 082312 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED 953 NM SSE OF SAN_DIEGO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232200Z, 240400Z, 241000Z AND 241600Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 01C (IOKE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 09E (HECTOR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTSS20 VHHH 231645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 231500 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR HAINAN ISLAND WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (18.7 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (111.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 60 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 241500 UTC TWO ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (20.5 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (111.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 251500 UTC TWO ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (21.4 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (110.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 261500 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 231645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 231500 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR HAINAN ISLAND WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (18.7 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (111.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 60 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 241500 UTC TWO ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (20.5 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (111.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 251500 UTC TWO ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (21.4 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (110.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 261500 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTNT80 EGRR 231726 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 23.08.2006 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ANALYSED POSITION : 156.3N 30.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 23.08.2006 15.3N 30.5W MODERATE 00UTC 24.08.2006 17.0N 33.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.08.2006 18.9N 35.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.08.2006 20.0N 38.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.08.2006 20.8N 40.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.08.2006 20.6N 42.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.08.2006 22.1N 45.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.08.2006 23.5N 47.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.08.2006 24.6N 48.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.08.2006 24.8N 50.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.08.2006 26.0N 50.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.08.2006 27.0N 51.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.08.2006 29.0N 51.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE HURRICANE ILEANA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.4N 111.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 23.08.2006 17.4N 111.1W MODERATE 00UTC 24.08.2006 18.9N 113.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.08.2006 20.1N 114.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.08.2006 21.2N 115.7W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 25.08.2006 21.9N 117.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.08.2006 22.3N 117.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.08.2006 22.4N 118.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.08.2006 22.3N 119.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.08.2006 21.9N 119.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.08.2006 21.4N 120.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.08.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE IOKE ANALYSED POSITION : 17.8N 170.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP012006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 23.08.2006 17.8N 170.2W STRONG 00UTC 24.08.2006 17.7N 170.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.08.2006 19.2N 171.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.08.2006 20.0N 172.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.08.2006 20.4N 174.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.08.2006 20.4N 175.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.08.2006 20.1N 176.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.08.2006 19.7N 177.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.08.2006 19.0N 179.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.08.2006 18.5N 179.2E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.08.2006 18.3N 177.4E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.08.2006 18.9N 175.9E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.08.2006 19.6N 174.8E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 231726