** WTPA32 PHFO 230603 *** TCPCP2 BULLETIN HURRICANE IOKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 800 PM HST TUE AUG 22 2006 ...HURRICANE IOKE MAKING ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO JOHNSTON ISLAND... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND. AT 800 PM HST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 170.1 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES WEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND AND ABOUT 855 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU. IOKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLOW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IOKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 971 MB...28.67 INCHES. HURRICANE CONDITIONS...WITH EXTREMELY STRONG WINDS...TORRENTIAL RAINS...AND BATTERING WAVES WILL CONTINUE ON JOHNSTON ISLAND OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE ON THE ISLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING. REPEATING THE 800 PM HST POSITION...16.7 N...170.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM HST. $$ FORECASTER R BALLARD/HOUSTON ** WTIN20 DEMS 230628 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 23-08-2006(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTH ANDAMAN SEA PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 30 DEG. NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ?????????? ** WTPQ20 BABJ 230600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD05 INITIAL TIME 230600 UTC 00HR 17.7N 111.4E 1002HPA 12M/S P12HR N 5KM/H P+24HR 18.9N 111.4E 998HPA 18M/S= ** WTPA32 PHFO 230825 *** TCPCP2 BULLETIN HURRICANE IOKE ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 1100 PM HST TUE AUG 22 2006 ...HURRICANE IOKE SLOWLY MOVING AWAY FROM JOHNSTON ISLAND... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND. AT 1100 PM HST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 170.5 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND AND ABOUT 870 MILES WEST- SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU. IOKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IOKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 971 MB...28.67 INCHES. HURRICANE CONDITIONS...WITH STRONG WINDS...TORRENTIAL RAINS... AND BATTERING WAVES WILL GRADUALLY EASE ON JOHNSTON ISLAND OVERNIGHT. REPEATING THE 1100 PM HST POSITION...17.2 N...170.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM HST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST. $$ FORECASTER R BALLARD/HOUSTON ** WTPZ45 KNHC 230829 *** TCDEP5 HURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006 200 AM PDT WED AUG 23 2006 ILEANA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN IN A FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT...AND IT IS A VERY IMPRESSIVE-LOOKING HURRICANE. ENHANCED IR IMAGERY SHOWS THE EYE BECOMING BETTER DEFINED WHILE EMBEDDED IN VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL-ESTABLISHED AND QUITE SYMMETRIC. LATEST SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES SUPPORT A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 100 KT...I.E. A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THERE IS A WINDOW OF ABOUT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION...DURING WHICH TIME THE HURRICANE COULD ATTAIN CAT. 4 STRENGTH. THEREAFTER...ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT...COOLER SSTS AND DRIER AIR ARE EXPECTED TO BRING ABOUT WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. INITIAL MOTION...310/16... IS FASTER THAN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A WELL-DEFINED HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ABOUT A WEAKENING OF THIS HIGH AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH CALIFORNIA. ACCORDINGLY...THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS PREDICTED TO DECREASE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...U.K. MET...AND NOGAPS TRACK AND ALSO SIMILAR TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. LESS EMPHASIS IS BEING PLACED ON THE GFS TRACK...AS THAT MODEL HAS A FAR TOO WEAK INITIALIZATION OF THE HURRICANE. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE STEERING FLOW WILL COLLAPSE. THEREFORE LITTLE MOTION IS SHOWN IN 4-5 DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0900Z 17.5N 110.6W 100 KT 12HR VT 23/1800Z 18.7N 112.4W 110 KT 24HR VT 24/0600Z 19.9N 114.4W 115 KT 36HR VT 24/1800Z 20.7N 116.0W 105 KT 48HR VT 25/0600Z 21.3N 117.3W 90 KT 72HR VT 26/0600Z 22.0N 119.2W 70 KT 96HR VT 27/0600Z 22.5N 120.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 28/0600Z 22.5N 121.0W 35 KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH/FIORINO ** WTPA22 PHFO 230830 *** TCMCP2 HURRICANE IOKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 0900 UTC WED AUG 23 2006 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 170.5W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 20SW 35NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 70SE 55SW 75NW. 34 KT.......160NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..190NE 120SE 90SW 160NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 170.5W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 170.2W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 17.9N 171.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 35NW. 50 KT... 85NE 65SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...155NE 115SE 85SW 115NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 18.7N 172.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 35NW. 50 KT... 85NE 65SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...155NE 115SE 85SW 115NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 19.4N 173.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 35NW. 50 KT... 85NE 65SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...155NE 115SE 85SW 115NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 20.2N 174.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 85NE 65SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 115SE 85SW 115NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 20.9N 176.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 85NE 65SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...135NE 110SE 85SW 115NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 20.3N 179.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 19.5N 179.3E MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 170.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z $$ FORECASTER R BALLARD/HOUSTON ** WTPZ25 KNHC 230830 *** TCMEP5 HURRICANE ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006 0900 UTC WED AUG 23 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 110.6W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT.......150NE 120SE 100SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 100SW 125NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 110.6W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 110.0W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 18.7N 112.4W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 110SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 19.9N 114.4W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 110SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 20.7N 116.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 110SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 21.3N 117.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 110SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 22.0N 119.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 22.5N 120.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 22.5N 121.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 110.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH/FIORINO ** WTNT44 KNHC 230842 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 500 AM EDT WED AUG 23 2006 THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF DEBBY CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AND A 0331 UTC AQUA MICROWAVE OVERPASS DETECTED A FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED SYSTEM...WITH WELL DEFINED BANDS AROUND THE CENTER. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM SAB...AND 35 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/14. DEBBY IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES. THE RELIABLE TRACK MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...MAINTAINING THIS MOTION THROUGH THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. AT DAYS 4 AND 5...GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A SIGNIFICANT WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE TRACK DIFFERENCES SEEN IN THE THE GLOBAL MODELS APPEAR TO BE THE RESULT OF DIFFERENCES IN THE FORECAST STRENGTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE UMKET MODEL DEPICTS A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM AND IN TURN TRACKS IT MORE WESTWARD...WHILE THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS HAVE A STRONGER CYCLONE WHICH FEELS THE EFFECTS OF THE TROUGH AND TURNS NORTHWARD NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE NOGAPS TRACK SEEMS UNREASONABLE BECAUSE IT RESULTS FROM AN UNREALISTIC DISSIPATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND REFORMATION OF THE SYSTEM FROM A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER... IT HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS...GFDL...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS. DEBBY WILL BE ENCOUNTERING DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO...WHICH SHOULD KEEP INTENSIFICATION SLOW IN THE NEAR TERM. THEREAFTER... THE CYCLONE WILL BE PASSING OVER WARMER SSTS...BUT SHEAR IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN WHICH MAKES FOR A DIFFICULT INTENSITY PREDICTION. THE NHC FORECAST BRINGS DEBBY TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 4 DAYS...WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL AND SHIPS...BUT IS LEVELED OFF IN DEFERENCE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SHEAR. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0900Z 15.9N 30.1W 40 KT 12HR VT 23/1800Z 16.9N 32.2W 45 KT 24HR VT 24/0600Z 18.2N 35.0W 50 KT 36HR VT 24/1800Z 19.6N 37.9W 50 KT 48HR VT 25/0600Z 21.0N 40.8W 50 KT 72HR VT 26/0600Z 24.0N 46.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 27/0600Z 27.5N 51.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 28/0600Z 30.0N 53.0W 65 KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN ** WTNT34 KNHC 230843 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 500 AM AST WED AUG 23 2006 ...DEBBY BECOMES A LITTLE STRONGER OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC... AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 30.1 WEST OR ABOUT 385 MILES...625 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. DEBBY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...15.9 N...30.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH ** WTNT24 KNHC 230844 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 0900 UTC WED AUG 23 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 30.1W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 120SE 120SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 30.1W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 29.4W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 16.9N 32.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 18.2N 35.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 35SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 19.6N 37.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 35SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 21.0N 40.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 35SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 24.0N 46.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 27.5N 51.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 30.0N 53.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 30.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH ** WTCA44 TJSJ 230903 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL DEBBY ADVERTENCIA NUMERO A6 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL042006 500 AM AST MIERCOLES 23 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...DEBBY SE TORNA UN POCO MAS FUERTE SOBRE EL LEJANO ATLANTICO ORIENTAL... A LAS 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL DEBBY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 15.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 30.2 OESTE O COMO A 385 MILLAS...625 KM...AL OESTE-NOROESTE DE LAS ISLAS MAS AL SUR DE CAPO VERDE. DEBBY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 16 MPH...26 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LAS IMAGES DEL SATELITE INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTANDO A CERCA DE 45 MPH...75 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO LENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 50 MILLAS...85 KILOMETROS...DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 1002 MILIBARAS...29.59 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 AM AST...15.9 NORTE...30.1 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 16 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1002 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR BROWN/PASCH ** WTPA42 PHFO 230904 *** TCDCP2 HURRICANE IOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 1100 PM HST TUE AUG 22 2006 INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE VARIOUS AGENCIES INDICATE THAT IOKE HAS MAINTAINED STRENGTH OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE EYE HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY ONCE AGAIN...THERE WAS A RENEWED BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER AS THE HURRICANE MADE ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO JOHNSTON ISLAND EARLIER THIS EVENING. THE 0507Z SSMI PASS SHOWED THAT JOHNSTON ISLAND WAS SQUARELY IN THE EASTERN EYEWALL OF IOKE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/8. IOKE IS CURRENTLY HEADING NORTHWEST TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW NEAR 28N 178E. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD AND WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH WILL ALLOW IOKE TO CONTINUE ON A NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...STRONGER RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF IOKE IS EXPECTED TO TURN THE HURRICANE ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY COURSE. SATELLITE DERIVED HIGH LEVEL WIND ANALYSES INDICATE THAT IOKE IS SKIRTING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. THERE IS STRONG SHEAR JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF IOKE...BUT THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE REMAINS UNDER RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER IOKE WILL ACTUALLY REDUCE SHEAR THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS. IN THE LONGER TERM...IOKE WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF A RATHER STRONG DIGGING TROUGH BETWEEN 160W AND 170W...WITH INCREASING NORTHERLY SHEAR INDUCING SHEARING. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0900Z 17.2N 170.5W 90 KT 12HR VT 23/1800Z 17.9N 171.3W 90 KT 24HR VT 24/0600Z 18.7N 172.4W 90 KT 36HR VT 24/1800Z 19.4N 173.4W 90 KT 48HR VT 25/0600Z 20.2N 174.7W 90 KT 72HR VT 26/0600Z 20.9N 176.9W 90 KT 96HR VT 27/0600Z 20.3N 179.0W 85 KT 120HR VT 28/0600Z 19.5N 179.3E 80 KT $$ FORECASTER R BALLARD/HOUSTON ** WTSS20 VHHH 231045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR HAINAN ISLAND HAS INTENSIFIED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS. AT 230900 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (18.0 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (112.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 60 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 240900 UTC TWO ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (20.3 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (112.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250900 UTC TWO ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (21.0 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (110.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260900 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 231045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR HAINAN ISLAND HAS INTENSIFIED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS. AT 230900 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (18.0 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (112.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 60 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 240900 UTC TWO ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (20.3 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (112.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250900 UTC TWO ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (21.0 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (110.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260900 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND.