** WTSR20 WSSS 221800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPA32 PHFO 230119 *** TCPCP2 BULLETIN HURRICANE IOKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 200 PM HST TUE AUG 22 2006 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE OVERSPREADING THE ISLAND AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AT 200 PM HST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 169.9 WEST OR ABOUT 25 MILES...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND. IOKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLOW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IOKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 971 MB. REPEATING THE 200 PM HST POSITION...16.3 N...169.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM HST. $$ FORECASTER CRAIG/DONALDSON ** WTNT34 KNHC 230225 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 1100 PM AST TUE AUG 22 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO THE FOURTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN... AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 28.9 WEST OR ABOUT 300 MILES...485 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. DEBBY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...15.2 N...28.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTNT24 KNHC 230230 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 0300 UTC WED AUG 23 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 28.9W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 150SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 28.9W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 28.2W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.2N 31.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 17.6N 33.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 18.9N 36.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 20.2N 39.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 22.8N 44.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 26.0N 50.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 29.1N 54.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 28.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTCA44 TJSJ 230232 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL DEBBY ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 6 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL042006 1100 PM AST MARTES 22 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...LA DEPRESION TROPICAL SE FORTALECE Y SE CONVIERTE EN LA CUARTA TORMENTA TROPICAL DE LA TEMPORADA SOBRE EL OCEANO ATLANTICO MAS AL ESTE... A LAS 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL DEBBY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 15.2 NORTE... LONGITUD 28.9 OESTE O COMO A 300 MILLAS...485 KM...AL OESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE MAS AL SUR. DEBBY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 18 MPH...30 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA UN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICALSE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 45 MILLAS...75 KILOMETROS...DESDE EL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1003 MB...29.62 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM AST...15.2 NORTE...28.9 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 18 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1003 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR STEWART ** WTPZ25 KNHC 230234 *** TCMEP5 HURRICANE ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006 0300 UTC WED AUG 23 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 109.2W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT.......150NE 130SE 110SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 125SE 100SW 125NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 109.2W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 108.6W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.6N 110.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 110SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 19.0N 113.1W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. 34 KT...175NE 150SE 125SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 20.0N 115.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. 34 KT...175NE 150SE 125SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 20.7N 116.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. 34 KT...175NE 150SE 125SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 22.0N 118.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 23.0N 120.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 23.5N 122.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 109.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART ** WTPZ24 KNHC 230235 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HECTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 0300 UTC WED AUG 23 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 138.1W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 80SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 138.1W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 137.8W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 23.1N 139.2W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 23.3N 140.7W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 138.1W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART ** WTNT44 KNHC 230244 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 22 2006 ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS... ENOUGH CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR THE CENTER TO SUPPORT A CONSENSUS SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5/35 KT FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES. ALSO...THE PAST 5 AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS AND CIRA HAVE RANGED FROM 1003-1000 MB AND 38-43 KT. ALSO...A 22/2027Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS SHOWED SEVERAL 30-35 KT UNCONTAMINATED WIND VECTORS AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...TD-4 HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM DEBBY...THE FOURTH NAMED STORM OF THE 2006 SEASON. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/16. ALTHOUGH THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 48-72H... THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED WELL TO THE WEST OR LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...DUE IN PART TO THE CONTINUED WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE...AND GFDL MODELS. THE BAM MODELS HAVE BEEN ATROCIOUS AT BEST WITH A LARGE RIGHT-OF-TRACK BIAS OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS...SO THEY WERE NOT EVEN CONSIDERED IN THE FORECAST PROCESS. THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN OVERDEVELOPING A WEAK MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED ABOUT 550 NMI NORTHWEST OF DEBBY. THIS FEATURE IS SO INDISTINCT AND MUCH SMALLER THAN THE CIRCULATION ENVELOPE OF DEBBY THAT IT IS HARD TO LOCATE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. IN CONTRAST...THE NOGAPS AND UKMET MODELS HAVE BEEN DOWNPLAYING THE UPPER-LOW AND DISSIPATE IT COMPLETELY BY 48 HOURS. GIVEN THAT THE UPPER-LOW AT BEST IS MOVING WESTWARD AT THE SAME SPEED AS DEBBY... ANY NORTHWARD INFLUENCE BY THIS SYSTEM ON DEBBY SHOULD BE LESS THAN DEPICTED BY THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS SHIFTED WESTWARD...BUT NOT AS FAR WEST AS THE GUNA...GUNS...AND CONU CONSENSUS MODELS. AS MENTIONED IN LAST NIGHT'S DISCUSSION... IF DEBBY DOESN'T REACH 20-25N LATITUDE IN 72-96 HOURS...THEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FORECAST WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BYPASS THE CYCLONE...AS ALLUDED TO BY THE 18Z UKMET MODEL RUN. DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR...COOLER SSTS...AND A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF DEBBY SUGGEST THAT ANY STRENGTHENING SHOULD BE SLOW THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INTENSIFICATION TREND WAS LEVELED OFF BETWEEN 24-48 HOURS AS DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER 26C SSTS. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO PASS OVER 28C AND WARMER SSTS...BUT ONLY GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO SLOWLY INCREASING SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0300Z 15.2N 28.9W 35 KT 12HR VT 23/1200Z 16.2N 31.1W 40 KT 24HR VT 24/0000Z 17.6N 33.8W 45 KT 36HR VT 24/1200Z 18.9N 36.6W 45 KT 48HR VT 25/0000Z 20.2N 39.5W 50 KT 72HR VT 26/0000Z 22.8N 44.9W 55 KT 96HR VT 27/0000Z 26.0N 50.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 28/0000Z 29.1N 54.0W 65 KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTPA32 PHFO 230245 *** TCPCP2 BULLETIN HURRICANE IOKE ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 500 PM HST TUE AUG 22 2006 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE NOW OCCURRING ON THE ISLAND AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. AT 500 PM HST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 170.2 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES...WEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND AND ABOUT 865 MILES... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...OAHU. IOKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IOKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 971 MB...28.67 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 PM HST POSITION...16.6 N...170.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM HST. $$ FORECASTER CRAIG/DONALDSON ** WTPA22 PHFO 230245 *** TCMCP2 HURRICANE IOKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 0300 UTC WED AUG 23 2006 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE NOW OCCURRING ON THE ISLAND AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 170.2W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 20SW 35NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 70SE 55SW 75NW. 34 KT.......160NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..160NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 170.2W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 169.9W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.4N 171.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 35NW. 50 KT... 85NE 65SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 115SE 85SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 18.3N 172.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 35NW. 50 KT... 85NE 65SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 115SE 85SW 115NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 19.0N 173.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 35NW. 50 KT... 85NE 65SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 115SE 85SW 115NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 19.7N 174.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 85NE 65SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 115SE 85SW 115NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 20.5N 176.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 85NE 65SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...135NE 110SE 85SW 115NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 20.6N 177.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 20.4N 178.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 170.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z $$ FORECASTER DONALDSON ** WTPA42 PHFO 230245 *** TCDCP2 HURRICANE IOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 500 PM HST TUE AUG 22 2006 SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY OF IOKE IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE EYE...WHICH HAD DISAPPEARED FOR A WHILE...HAS REMAINED DIMLY VISIBLE FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS. AT 02Z...THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE EYEWALL WAS OVER JOHNSTON ISLAND. THE 00Z CIMSS VERTICAL SHEAR PRODUCT SHOWS A SLIGHT DECREASE TO 6M/S SHEAR FROM 241 DEGREES SO WE WILL BE KEEPING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT T5.0 OR 90 KT. IOKE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD BUT THE FORWARD MOTION HAS SLOWED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS EVEN MORE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THAN 6 HOURS AGO...SHOWING A CONTINUED NORTHWEST MOVEMENT THROUGH 72 HOURS...THEN SLOWING AND CURVING TOWARDS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST. WE HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS... THEN SHIFTED THE FORECAST TRACK FARTHER SOUTH AND SLOWED THE FORWARD MOTION TO STICK CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES IOKE OVER 28 DEGREE C WATER THROUGH 120 HOURS. THE MODEST SOUTHWEST SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY AND REMAIN LOW THROUGH 72 HOURS. WE HAVE KEPT THE INTENSITY UNCHANGED THROUGH 96 HOURS...THEN STARTED A GRADUAL WEAKENING AS SHEAR INCREASES FROM THE NORTHWEST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0300Z 16.6N 170.2W 90 KT 12HR VT 23/1200Z 17.4N 171.0W 90 KT 24HR VT 24/0000Z 18.3N 172.1W 90 KT 36HR VT 24/1200Z 19.0N 173.2W 90 KT 48HR VT 25/0000Z 19.7N 174.2W 90 KT 72HR VT 26/0000Z 20.5N 176.0W 90 KT 96HR VT 27/0000Z 20.6N 177.3W 90 KT 120HR VT 28/0000Z 20.4N 178.5W 85 KT $$ FORECASTER DONALDSON ** WTPZ45 KNHC 230255 *** TCDEP5 HURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006 800 PM PDT TUE AUG 22 2006 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT THAT ILEANA HAS DEVELOPED A WELL DEFINED 30 NMI EYE THIS EVENING...WITH THE EYE WALL NOW COMPLETELY CLOSED OFF OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM BOTH SAB AND AFWA...77 KT FROM TAFB...AND A 77 KT 6 HOUR AVG FROM THE CIMSS ADT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNTOUCHED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...EXCEPT FOR AN INCREASE TO 90 KT IN 12 HOURS BASED OFF OF A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS...AND THE RECENT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE CORE STRUCTURE AND IMPROVED OUTFLOW. THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE INDICATE FURTHER STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...AS ILEANA MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 310/14. THE GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER ILEANA...WITH A MOTION MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITHIN THE SHALLOW LAYER EASTERLY FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING WEST FROM MEXICO. THE REMAINDER OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A SOLUTION SUGGESTING A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 4 DAYS...TOWARD A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE. AFTERWARD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL...WHICH CONTINUES TO SHOW A TURN NORTHWARD INTO THE WEAKNESS...LARGE SCALE MODELS INDICATE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND A REDUCTION IN FORWARD MOTION AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS OVER COOLER WATERS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS...WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON THE GFS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0300Z 16.6N 109.2W 75 KT 12HR VT 23/1200Z 17.6N 110.9W 90 KT 24HR VT 24/0000Z 19.0N 113.1W 100 KT 36HR VT 24/1200Z 20.0N 115.0W 100 KT 48HR VT 25/0000Z 20.7N 116.4W 90 KT 72HR VT 26/0000Z 22.0N 118.5W 75 KT 96HR VT 27/0000Z 23.0N 120.0W 55 KT 120HR VT 28/0000Z 23.5N 122.0W 45 KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART ** WTPZ44 KNHC 230256 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 800 PM PDT TUE AUG 22 2006 HECTOR HAS BEEN UNABLE TO GENERATE ANY DEEP CONVECTION FOR CLOSE TO 24 HOURS...AND HAS BECOME AN EXPOSED SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 280/7. DISSIPATING HECTOR SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE IN A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION WITHIN THE LOW LAYER STEERING FLOW DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN DISSIPATE. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON HECTOR. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH...UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIAHSPEP2 AND WMO HEADER FZPN03 KNHC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0300Z 23.0N 138.1W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 12HR VT 23/1200Z 23.1N 139.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 24/0000Z 23.3N 140.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART ** WTPZ44 KNHC 230306 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 30...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 800 PM PDT TUE AUG 22 2006 CORRECTED AWIPS HEADER HECTOR HAS BEEN UNABLE TO GENERATE ANY DEEP CONVECTION FOR CLOSE TO 24 HOURS...AND HAS BECOME AN EXPOSED SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 280/7. DISSIPATING HECTOR SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE IN A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION WITHIN THE LOW LAYER STEERING FLOW DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN DISSIPATE. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON HECTOR. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH...UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIAHSFEP2 AND WMO HEADER FZPN03 KNHC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0300Z 23.0N 138.1W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 12HR VT 23/1200Z 23.1N 139.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 24/0000Z 23.3N 140.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART ** WTPA32 PHFO 230313 CCA *** TCPCP2 BULLETIN HURRICANE IOKE ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 500 PM HST TUE AUG 22 2006 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE NOW OCCURRING ON THE ISLAND AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. AT 500 PM HST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 170.2 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES...WEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND AND ABOUT 865 MILES... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...OAHU. IOKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLOW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IOKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 971 MB...28.67 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 PM HST POSITION...16.6 N...170.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM HST. $$ FORECASTER CRAIG/DONALDSON ** WTNT80 EGRR 230527 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 23.08.2006 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ANALYSED POSITION : 14.9N 27.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 23.08.2006 14.9N 27.9W MODERATE 12UTC 23.08.2006 16.2N 30.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.08.2006 17.3N 33.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.08.2006 18.5N 35.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.08.2006 19.4N 38.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.08.2006 20.4N 41.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.08.2006 20.9N 44.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.08.2006 22.2N 46.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.08.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION HECTOR ANALYSED POSITION : 22.8N 137.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP092006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 23.08.2006 22.8N 137.6W WEAK 12UTC 23.08.2006 23.0N 139.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.08.2006 23.4N 142.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.08.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE ILEANA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.3N 109.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 23.08.2006 16.3N 109.0W MODERATE 12UTC 23.08.2006 17.8N 110.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 24.08.2006 19.3N 113.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.08.2006 20.5N 114.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.08.2006 21.6N 116.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.08.2006 21.9N 117.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.08.2006 22.0N 118.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.08.2006 22.3N 118.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.08.2006 21.9N 119.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.08.2006 21.6N 119.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.08.2006 21.1N 119.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.08.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE IOKE ANALYSED POSITION : 16.1N 170.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP012006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 23.08.2006 16.1N 170.1W MODERATE 12UTC 23.08.2006 17.4N 170.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.08.2006 18.3N 171.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.08.2006 19.2N 172.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 25.08.2006 19.7N 174.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.08.2006 20.4N 175.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.08.2006 20.5N 176.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.08.2006 20.4N 177.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.08.2006 19.8N 178.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.08.2006 19.2N 178.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.08.2006 18.6N 179.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.08.2006 18.6N 179.2E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.08.2006 19.0N 178.5E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 230527