** WTPA32 PHFO 221856 *** TCPCP2 BULLETIN HURRICANE IOKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 800 AM HST TUE AUG 22 2006 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 AM HST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 169.3 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND. IOKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IOKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB. REPEATING THE 800 AM HST POSITION...15.9 N...169.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM HST. $$ FORECASTER CRAIG/BROWNING ** WTNT44 KNHC 222031 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 22 2006 DESPITE SOME INCREASE OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS LIMITED BANDING AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT 30 KT. CONSEQUENTLY THE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE UPGRADED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WITH CONVECTION ON THE INCREASE THE CLASSIFICATIONS SHOULD SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH VERY SOON. WHILE THE OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS BEEN IMPROVING TODAY AND THE SHEAR IS FAIRLY LOW...THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS AND A MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...SO I AM ANTICIPATING ONLY SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT...WATERS WARM BUT SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY WITH THEIR INTENSITY FORECASTS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALSO NUDGED DOWN. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/16...OR ABOUT 15 DEGREES TO THE RIGHT OF THIS TIME YESTERDAY. RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES SUGGEST A BETTER CO-LOCATION OF THE MID AND LOW-LEVEL CENTERS. THERE HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT CONVERGENCE IN HOW THE GLOBAL MODELS HANDLE THE DEPRESSION...WITH THE 12Z RUNS OF THE UKMET AND ECMWF NOW MAINTAINING THE SYSTEM AND SHIFTING THEIR TRACKS TO THE RIGHT. THEY ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND ALSO WITH THE GFDL THROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION...WITH ALL THE GUIDANCE INDICATING AN EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/2100Z 14.5N 27.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 23/0600Z 15.7N 29.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 23/1800Z 17.2N 32.4W 40 KT 36HR VT 24/0600Z 18.8N 35.2W 40 KT 48HR VT 24/1800Z 20.1N 38.0W 45 KT 72HR VT 25/1800Z 23.0N 44.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 26/1800Z 27.0N 49.0W 55 KT 120HR VT 27/1800Z 30.0N 53.0W 60 KT $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTNT24 KNHC 222032 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 2100 UTC TUE AUG 22 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 27.5W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 150SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 27.5W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 26.8W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.7N 29.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 17.2N 32.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 18.8N 35.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 20.1N 38.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 23.0N 44.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 27.0N 49.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 30.0N 53.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 27.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTPZ45 KNHC 222032 *** TCDEP5 HURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006 200 PM PDT TUE AUG 22 2006 CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH RECENT MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT ILEANA IS FORMING AN EYE...AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW UNANIMOUSLY 65 KT FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES. ACCORDINGLY...ILEANA IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE...THE 5TH OF THE 2006 SEASON...WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KT. ILEANA IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER VERY WARM WATERS AND WITHIN A VERY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...SEVERAL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LARGE ANTICYCLONE IN THE UPPER LEVELS DEVELOPING OVER THE HURRICANE. TO FULLY TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THIS ENVIRONMENT...ILEANA NEEDS ONLY TO CONSOLIDATE ITS INNER CORE...WHICH APPEARS UNDERWAY. ALL OF THESE FACTORS FAVOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES ILEANA APPROACHING CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY WITHIN 48 HOURS...CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS. BEYOND 72 HOURS...THINGS GET VERY COMPLICATED GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK AND THEREFORE THE UNDERLYING SST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES ILEANA WILL MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS RESULTING IN STEADY WEAKENING. ILEANA IS MOVING RIGHT ALONG THE PREVIOUS TRACK WITH AN ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION OF 300/14. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...WITH THE PRIMARY DIFFERENCE BEING THE DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF THE CYCLONE. SINCE THE NOGAPS...GFS...AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN DO NOT HAVE A REASONABLE REPRESENTATION OF THE VORTEX...THOSE SOLUTIONS ARE DEEMED LESS LIKELY. THE UKMET AND GFDL MODELS... BECAUSE THEY DEPICT A STRONGER AND DEEPER VORTEX...APPEAR TO PROVIDE BETTER SOLUTIONS DURING THE FIRST 2-3 DAYS UNTIL THE CYCLONE APPROACHES COOLER WATERS. THEREAFTER...THE UKMET STALLS THE CYCLONE WHILE THE GFDL TURNS IT NORTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WHICH DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE CYCLONE WILL NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH TO BE PICKED UP BY THIS TROUGH. INSTEAD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A CONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...ALBEIT SLOWER...ON DAYS 4 AND 5. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS GREATER THAN USUAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECASTS AT THESE LONGER RANGES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/2100Z 15.8N 108.2W 65 KT 12HR VT 23/0600Z 16.8N 109.5W 75 KT 24HR VT 23/1800Z 18.2N 111.6W 85 KT 36HR VT 24/0600Z 19.3N 113.6W 95 KT 48HR VT 24/1800Z 20.3N 115.3W 95 KT 72HR VT 25/1800Z 21.6N 117.4W 80 KT 96HR VT 26/1800Z 23.0N 119.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 27/1800Z 24.0N 121.0W 45 KT $$ FORECASTER RHOME ** WTPZ25 KNHC 222032 *** TCMEP5 HURRICANE ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006 2100 UTC TUE AUG 22 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 108.2W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT.......150NE 125SE 100SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 125SE 100SW 125NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 108.2W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 107.3W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 16.8N 109.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 18.2N 111.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 19.3N 113.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 20.3N 115.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 70SE 70SW 75NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 21.6N 117.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 65NE 60SE 60SW 65NW. 34 KT...125NE 110SE 100SW 115NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 23.0N 119.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 24.0N 121.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 108.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z $$ FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN ** WTNT34 KNHC 222032 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 500 PM AST TUE AUG 22 2006 ...DEPRESSION CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS... AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 27.5 WEST OR ABOUT 210 MILES...335 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...14.5 N...27.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTPZ24 KNHC 222033 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 2100 UTC TUE AUG 22 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 137.4W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 0SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 80SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 137.4W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 137.1W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 23.2N 138.7W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 23.6N 141.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 137.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN/FRANKLIN ** WTPZ44 KNHC 222033 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 200 PM PDT TUE AUG 22 2006 HECTOR CONTINUES TO CLING TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS...AS A 1444 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED A SMALL AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED OVER SSTS OF 23C...AND IT IS PRODUCING ONLY A LIMITED AREA OF SHALLOW CONVECTION MORE THAN 160 NM NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE SHIPS MODEL DISSIPATES THE CYCLONE IN 36 HOURS...AND THIS FORECAST DOES THE SAME AFTER THE SYSTEM BECOMES A REMNANT LOW IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE INITIAL MOTION IS SET AT 280/6...AND HECTOR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SPEED BEFORE DISSIPATION. THIS TRACK IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MOTION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/2100Z 22.9N 137.4W 35 KT 12HR VT 23/0600Z 23.2N 138.7W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 23/1800Z 23.6N 141.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN/FRANKLIN ** WTCA44 TJSJ 222045 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL CUATRO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 5 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL042006 500 PM AST MARTES 22 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...LA DEPRESION CONTINUA MOVIENDOSE AL OESTE NOROESTE ALEJANDOSE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE... A LAS 5 PM AST...2100 UCT...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL NUMERO CUATRO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 14.5 NORTE... LONGITUD 27.5 OESTE O COMO A 210 MILLAS...335 KM...AL OESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE MAS AL SUR. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 18 MPH...Y ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL SE ESPERA POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. LA DEPRESION PUDIERA CONVERTIRSE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL MAS TARDE ESTA NOCHE O MANANA. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1005 MB...29.68 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 PM AST...14.5 NORTE...27.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 18 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1005 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1100 PM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN ** WTPA22 PHFO 222100 *** TCMCP2 HURRICANE IOKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 2100 UTC TUE AUG 22 2006 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE OVERSPREADING THE ISLAND AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 169.7W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 316 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 20SW 35NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 70SE 55SW 75NW. 34 KT.......160NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..160NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 169.7W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 169.4W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 17.1N 170.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 35NW. 50 KT... 85NE 65SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...145NE 115SE 85SW 115NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 18.1N 171.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 35NW. 50 KT... 85NE 65SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...145NE 115SE 85SW 115NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 18.9N 172.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 35NW. 50 KT... 85NE 65SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...145NE 115SE 85SW 115NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 19.6N 173.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 85NE 65SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...145NE 115SE 85SW 115NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 20.7N 175.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 85NE 65SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...135NE 110SE 85SW 115NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 21.0N 177.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 20.9N 179.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 169.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWNING ** WTPA32 PHFO 222100 *** TCPCP2 BULLETIN HURRICANE IOKE ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 1100 AM HST TUE AUG 22 2006 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE OVERSPREADING THE ISLAND AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AT 1100 AM HST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 169.7 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND AND ABOUT 850 MILES... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...OAHU. IOKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IOKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB...28.47 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM HST POSITION...16.2 N...169.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM HST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM HST. $$ FORECASTER BROWNING ** WTPA42 PHFO 222105 *** TCDCP2 HURRICANE IOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 1100 AM HST TUE AUG 22 2006 SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT IOKE HAS WEAKENED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS...AND THE FORMERLY WELL DEFINED EYE HAS BECOME ILL-DEFINED. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS MOISTURE FIELD ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HURRICANE HAS ERODED SOME FROM WEST TO EAST...INDICATING WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR. 1800Z CIMSS VERTICAL SHEAR PRODUCT SHOWS 9M/S SHEAR FROM 236 DEGREES...WHICH MATCHES THE SATELLITE DEPICTION WELL. NO MICROWAVE IMAGERY OF LATE...BUT VISIBLE AND IR IMAGERY SHOW A REMNANT NORTHERN EYEWALL STILL LIKELY INTACT ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTH OF JOHNSTON ISLAND. IOKE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AND GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND A CONTINUED NORTHWEST MOVEMENT THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK WHICH LIES WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE. BEYOND 72 HOURS...MOST OF THE OBJECTIVE AIDS BEND THE STORM WESTWARD...THEN WEST...SOUTHWESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK...WHICH IS SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THESE MODELS...WHICH SEEM TO BE RESPONDING TO A DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE NORTH OF IOKE. WITH REGARD TO INTENSITY...THE SHIPS GUIDANCE STEADILY WEAKENS THE HURRICANE TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE BY AROUND 72 HOURS...HOWEVER THE MAJORITY OF INTENSITY MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT IOKE WILL MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY. SHEAR ALONG THE TRAJECTORY LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK...AS IOKE BECOMES WEDGED BETWEEN 2 LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOWS...ONE TO THE NORTHWEST...AND ONE TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS RESULTS IN A LARGE AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SURROUNDING IOKE...SO WITH SST REMAINING NEAR 28 C ALONG THE PATH AND NEUTRAL TO SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL FLOW...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT IOKE WILL CONTINUE AS A HURRICANE THROUGH 72 HOURS. BEYOND THAT...INCREASING SHEAR MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE HURRICANE...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/2100Z 16.2N 169.7W 90 KT 12HR VT 23/0600Z 17.1N 170.6W 85 KT 24HR VT 23/1800Z 18.1N 171.7W 85 KT 36HR VT 24/0600Z 18.9N 172.7W 85 KT 48HR VT 24/1800Z 19.6N 173.8W 85 KT 72HR VT 25/1800Z 20.7N 175.9W 85 KT 96HR VT 26/1800Z 21.0N 177.7W 80 KT 120HR VT 27/1800Z 20.9N 179.6W 75 KT $$ FORECASTER BROWNING ** WTPA32 PHFO 222108 CCA *** TCPCP2 BULLETIN HURRICANE IOKE ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 1100 AM HST TUE AUG 22 2006 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE OVERSPREADING THE ISLAND AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AT 1100 AM HST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 169.7 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND AND ABOUT 850 MILES... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...OAHU. IOKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IOKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB...28.47 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM HST POSITION...16.2 N...169.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM HST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM HST. $$ FORECASTER BROWNING