** WTPA32 PHFO 221200 *** TCPCP2 BULLETIN HURRICANE IOKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 200 AM HST TUE AUG 22 2006 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 AM HST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 168.4 WEST OR ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND. IOKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IOKE IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB OR 27.91 INCHES. REPEATING THE 200 AM HST POSITION...15.1 N...168.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM HST. $$ FORECASTER MATSUDA ** WTSR20 WSSS 220600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPA22 PHFO 221440 *** TCMCP2 HURRICANE IOKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 1500 UTC TUE AUG 22 2006 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 168.8W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 946 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 45NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 70SE 55SW 75NW. 34 KT.......160NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..160NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 168.8W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 168.5W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 16.6N 169.9W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 85NE 65SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 110SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.7N 171.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 85NE 65SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 110SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 18.5N 172.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 65NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 75SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 19.3N 173.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 55SE 45SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 20.5N 175.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 55NW. 34 KT...130NE 80SE 60SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 21.4N 177.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 22.0N 179.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 168.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER MATSUDA ** WTPA42 PHFO 221440 *** TCDCP2 HURRICANE IOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 500 AM HST TUE AUG 22 2006 IOKE HAS SHOWN ITS FIRST SIGNS OF WEAKENING LOSING ITS WARM CENTER OR EYE...WESTERLY SHEARING WINDS AT HIGH LEVELS APPEAR TO HAVE HAD AN EFFECT. WEVE BEGUN THE SLOW WEAKENING TREND EARLIER BUT HAVE KEPT IOKE AT HURRICANE STRENGTH THRU ALL 120 HOURS IN DEFERENCE TO THE MAJORITY OF INTENSITY MODELS...MANY HOLDING ON TO 100 KNOT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER THE LATEST 12Z PROJECTION OVER IOKE SHOWS LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY SHEARING THRU THE FIRST 72 HOURS AND NEARING A STRONG 20 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH THEREAFTER...A WIND ENVIRONMENT LIKELY TO MORE RAPIDLY WEAKEN IOKE THAN OUR COMPROMISE DOWNTREND INDICATES. ITS PATH REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY BUT IS GRADUALLY SLOWING WHICH MAY WELL INDICATE SOME SHEARING ALOFT. THE LATE PERIOD WESTERLY TURN OF MOST TRACK MODELS MAY ALSO SUGGEST A HARSH SHEARING SCENARIO AND CONSEQUENT STORM WEAKENING. WE HAVE HELD ON TO OUR EARLIER MORE MODEST TURNING BUT HAVE SLOWED SYSTEM MOVEMENT DOWN TO 5 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/1500Z 15.6N 168.8W 115 KT 12HR VT 23/0000Z 16.6N 169.9W 110 KT 24HR VT 23/1200Z 17.7N 171.0W 110 KT 36HR VT 24/0000Z 18.5N 172.0W 105 KT 48HR VT 24/1200Z 19.3N 173.0W 100 KT 72HR VT 25/1200Z 20.5N 175.2W 95 KT 96HR VT 26/1200Z 21.4N 177.2W 90 KT 120HR VT 27/1200Z 22.0N 179.1W 85 KT $$ FORECASTER MATSUDA ** WTPZ45 KNHC 221452 *** TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006 800 AM PDT TUE AUG 22 2006 DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS...A RELATIVE WARM SPOT HAS APPEARED WITHIN THE LARGE CDO FEATURE. SINCE THIS WARM SPOT IS CLOSE TO THE ESTIMATED CENTER...THIS COULD BE THE EARLY INDICATION OF EYE FORMATION. STILL...IT IS A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO KNOW FOR SURE IF THIS IS AN EYE FORMING AND THERE IS NO RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY TO HELP. AS A RESULT...SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DIVERGED SOMEWHAT AND ARE CURRENTLY 45 KT FROM TAFB...55 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA...AND 63 KT USING THE UW CIMSS ADT. UNDER THE CIRCUMSTANCES...A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS INTENSITY ESTIMATES APPEARS BEST AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF AN EYE IS INDEED FORMING...THE INITIAL INTENSITY AND SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS COULD BE LOW. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS THE CYCLONE WILL BE OVER VERY WARM WATERS AND IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. BEYOND 72 HOURS...ILEANA IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS RESULTING IN WEAKENING. THE NEW FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE VARIOUS INTENSITY MODELS. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 300/13 AND THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST OR UNDERLYING REASONING. ILEANA IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO RESULTING IN A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN LIE AT THE SOUTHERNMOST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WHILE THE GFDL AND UKMET MODELS ARE THE NORTHERNMOST MODELS. SINCE THE LATTER MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE A BETTER ANALYSIS OF THE CYCLONE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...CLOSER TO THE GFDL AND UKMET SOLUTIONS. LATE IN THE PERIOD...ILEANA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RESULTING IN A MORE WESTWARD MOTION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/1500Z 14.8N 106.7W 55 KT 12HR VT 23/0000Z 15.8N 108.4W 65 KT 24HR VT 23/1200Z 17.1N 110.5W 75 KT 36HR VT 24/0000Z 18.5N 112.7W 85 KT 48HR VT 24/1200Z 19.7N 114.7W 90 KT 72HR VT 25/1200Z 21.6N 117.8W 85 KT 96HR VT 26/1200Z 22.5N 120.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 27/1200Z 23.0N 122.5W 40 KT $$ FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN ** WTNT24 KNHC 221452 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 1500 UTC TUE AUG 22 2006 AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 26.1W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 26.1W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 25.4W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 14.6N 28.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.1N 30.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 17.6N 33.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 19.2N 36.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 22.0N 42.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 25.0N 48.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 28.0N 53.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 26.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTPZ25 KNHC 221452 *** TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006 1500 UTC TUE AUG 22 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 106.7W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT.......150NE 125SE 100SW 125NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 125SE 100SW 125NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 106.7W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 106.1W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.8N 108.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 125SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.1N 110.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 125SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 18.5N 112.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. 34 KT...175NE 150SE 125SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 19.7N 114.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. 34 KT...175NE 150SE 125SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 21.6N 117.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. 34 KT...175NE 150SE 125SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 22.5N 120.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 23.0N 122.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 106.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN ** WTNT44 KNHC 221452 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 22 2006 DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 12Z WERE 30 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA... AND 35 KT FROM SAB. SINCE THEN CONVECTION HAS DECAYED SOMEWHAT AND SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT. HIGHER VALUES IN THE 8Z QUIKSCAT PASS ARE BELIEVED TO BE RAIN CONTAMINATED. THERE IS CLEAR ROTATION IN THE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THAT COULD BE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE SURFACE CENTER...BUT THE LOW CLOUD LINES SUGGEST THE CENTER COULD BE DISPLACED A BIT TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITIES SLIGHTLY FAVOR A DISPLACED CENTER. SO WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY...THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 295/14. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUS IN SHIFTING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EASTWARD WITH INCREASED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO MAINTAIN ITS PRESENT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT THREE DAYS. AFTER THAT...THERE SEEM TO BE TWO PRIMARY OPTIONS. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASED SOUTHERLY SHEAR. THIS COULD TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD...IF THE SYSTEM CAN HANG TOGETHER. ALTERNATIVELY...THE SYSTEM COULD SHEAR OFF AND THE WEAKENED REMNANTS TURN WESTWARD. THE FORMER SCENARIO IS FAVORED BY THE GFS AND GFDL...WHILE THE LATTER SCENARIO IS THE CHOICE OF THE UKMET AND ECMWF MODELS. FOR NOW...I'VE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...WHICH SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE. THERE IS A LOT OF STABLE AIR IN THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION. NEVERTHELESS...BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE INDICATE STRENGTHENING TO AT LEAST A STRONG TROPICAL STORM. GIVEN THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT STRENGTHENED YET OVER THE WARMEST WATERS IT WILL SEE FOR THE NEXT FOUR DAYS...I WONDER IF THE GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/1500Z 13.6N 26.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 23/0000Z 14.6N 28.1W 35 KT 24HR VT 23/1200Z 16.1N 30.7W 40 KT 36HR VT 24/0000Z 17.6N 33.4W 45 KT 48HR VT 24/1200Z 19.2N 36.3W 50 KT 72HR VT 25/1200Z 22.0N 42.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 26/1200Z 25.0N 48.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 27/1200Z 28.0N 53.0W 65 KT $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTNT34 KNHC 221453 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 1100 AM AST TUE AUG 22 2006 ...DEPRESSION BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS... AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 26.1 WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES...225 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SUSTAINED WINDS TO 35 MPH WERE REPORTED EARLIER THIS MORNING ON THE ISLAND OF FOGO IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...13.6 N...26.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTPZ44 KNHC 221457 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 800 AM PDT TUE AUG 22 2006 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE IS WEAKENING AND HECTOR APPEARS WELL ON ITS WAY TO BECOMING NOTHING BUT A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS. NONETHELESS...AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 0336Z SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM IS STILL PRODUCING MARGINAL TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KT. IT IS ASSUMED THAT HECTOR WILL BE UNABLE TO REGENERATE SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION AND THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL SPIN DOWN. HECTOR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH THE LOW COMPLETELY DISSIPATING IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE MOTION OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS APPEARS TO BE TRENDING FASTER...AS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION BECOMES DETACHED FROM WHAT IS LEFT OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND IS STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. HECTOR IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SPEED. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/1500Z 22.8N 137.0W 35 KT 12HR VT 23/0000Z 22.9N 138.2W 30 KT...DISSIPATED 24HR VT 23/1200Z 23.0N 140.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 24/0000Z 23.1N 142.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN ** WTPZ24 KNHC 221457 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 1500 UTC TUE AUG 22 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 137.0W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 75NE 0SE 0SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 30SE 30SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 137.0W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 136.6W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.9N 138.2W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 23.0N 140.2W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 23.1N 142.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.8N 137.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN ** WTCA44 TJSJ 221504 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL CUATRO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 4 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL042006 1100 AM AST MARTES 22 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...LA DEPRESION COMIENZA A ALEJARSE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE... A LAS 11 AM AST...1500 UCT...EL GOBIERNO DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE HA DESCONTINUADO EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE. A LAS 1100 AM AST...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL NUMERO CUATRO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 13.6 NORTE... LONGITUD 26.1 OESTE O COMO A 140 MILLAS...225 KM...AL SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE MAS AL SUR. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 17 MPH...Y ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL SE ESPERA POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE REPORTO VIENTO SISTENIDO DE 35 MPH ANTERIORMENTE ESTA MANANA EN LA ISLA DE FOGO EN LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE. SE ESPERA QUE LA DEPRESION SE CONVIERTA EN TORMENTA TROPICAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1007 MB...29.74 PULGADAS. ACUMULACIONES ADICIONALES DE LLUVIA DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES EN LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE DEL SUR. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 AM AST...13.6 NORTE...26.1 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 17 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1007 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 PM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN ** WTPA32 PHFO 221652 *** TCPCP2 BULLETIN HURRICANE IOKE ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 700 AM HST TUE AUG 22 2006 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 AM HST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 168.8 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND AND ABOUT 815 MILES... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...OAHU. IOKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IOKE IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 AM HST POSITION...15.6 N...168.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM HST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST. $$ FORECASTER CRAIG ** WTNT80 EGRR 221736 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 22.08.2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ANALYSED POSITION : 12.9N 25.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 22.08.2006 12.9N 25.0W WEAK 00UTC 23.08.2006 14.9N 27.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.08.2006 15.4N 30.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.08.2006 16.7N 33.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.08.2006 18.3N 36.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.08.2006 19.1N 39.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.08.2006 20.5N 41.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.08.2006 22.5N 44.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.08.2006 23.5N 47.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.08.2006 24.5N 49.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.08.2006 26.8N 50.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.08.2006 27.6N 50.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.08.2006 28.0N 50.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM HECTOR ANALYSED POSITION : 23.0N 136.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP092006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 22.08.2006 23.0N 136.5W WEAK 00UTC 23.08.2006 23.0N 138.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.08.2006 23.8N 140.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.08.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM ILEANA ANALYSED POSITION : 14.0N 105.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 22.08.2006 14.0N 105.5W MODERATE 00UTC 23.08.2006 16.0N 108.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 23.08.2006 17.4N 111.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 24.08.2006 19.6N 113.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.08.2006 20.2N 115.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.08.2006 21.6N 116.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.08.2006 21.9N 116.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.08.2006 22.2N 116.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.08.2006 22.3N 116.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.08.2006 21.9N 116.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.08.2006 21.4N 116.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.08.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE IOKE ANALYSED POSITION : 15.2N 168.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP012006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 22.08.2006 15.2N 168.5W MODERATE 00UTC 23.08.2006 16.5N 169.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.08.2006 18.2N 170.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.08.2006 19.3N 171.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.08.2006 19.8N 172.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.08.2006 20.0N 173.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.08.2006 20.6N 175.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.08.2006 21.0N 175.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.08.2006 21.0N 176.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.08.2006 21.1N 176.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.08.2006 20.5N 177.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.08.2006 20.5N 177.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.08.2006 20.4N 178.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 221736