** WTPA32 PHFO 220600 *** TCPCP2 BULLETIN HURRICANE IOKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 800 PM HST MON AUG 21 2006 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. ALL INTERESTS IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS HURRICANE. HURRICANE IOKE IS NOT A THREAT TO THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. AT 800 PM HST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOKE IS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 167.8 WEST OR ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND. IOKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IOKE IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB OR 27.91 INCHES. REPEATING THE 800 PM HST POSITION...14.5 N...167.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM HST. $$ FORECASTER MATSUDA ** WTIN20 DEMS 220555 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 22-08-2006(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTH AND PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 29 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ?????????? ** WTPA42 PHFO 220839 *** TCDCP2 HURRICANE IOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 1100 PM HST MON AUG 21 2006 IOKE HAS STRENGTHENED FURTHER WITH ITS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 115 KNOTS MAKING IT A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. IT HAS BEEN MOVING DUE NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS AFTER A GRADUAL TURN FROM A MORE WESTERLY TRACK PREVIOUSLY. IT HAS SO FAR BEEN FOLLOWING GENERAL MODEL GUIDANCE FAIRLY WELL. AS MENTIONED EARLIER MOST MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO RETURN IOKE BACK TOWARD A MORE WESTERLY AFTER THE NEXT 72 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER PRESSURE TO ITS NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. HOWEVER WATER VAPOR CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG UPPER LOW NORTH OF HAWAII MOVING TOWARD THE WEST. WE WILL RETAIN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK WHICH SHOWS A COMPROMISED BEND TOWARD THE WEST. THE INTENSITY TREND ALSO HAS SOME ROOM FOR DOUBT...THE AMOUNT OF SHEARING IN THE LATER PERIODS IS DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION AND INTENSITY OF THE EARLIER MENTIONED LOW ALOFT. WE HAVE KEPT THE MODEST WEAKENING TREND OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. ALL INTERESTS IN THE VICINITY OF JOHNSTON ISLAND SHOULD IMMEDIATELY PREPARE FOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0900Z 14.9N 168.1W 115 KT 12HR VT 22/1800Z 16.2N 169.2W 120 KT 24HR VT 23/0600Z 17.3N 170.5W 120 KT 36HR VT 23/1800Z 18.2N 171.6W 115 KT 48HR VT 24/0600Z 18.9N 172.6W 110 KT 72HR VT 25/0600Z 20.3N 174.7W 105 KT 96HR VT 26/0600Z 21.4N 177.0W 105 KT 120HR VT 27/0600Z 22.3N 179.6W 105 KT $$ FORECASTER MATSUDA ** WTPA22 PHFO 220840 *** TCMCP2 HURRICANE IOKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 0900 UTC TUE AUG 22 2006 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 168.1W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 316 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 45NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 70SE 55SW 75NW. 34 KT.......160NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..160NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 168.1W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 167.7W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 16.2N 169.2W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 70SE 55SW 75NW. 34 KT...160NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 17.3N 170.5W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 95NE 75SE 55SW 75NW. 34 KT...165NE 125SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 18.2N 171.6W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 75SE 55SW 75NW. 34 KT...160NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 18.9N 172.6W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 65SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...150NE 115SE 80SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 20.3N 174.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 65SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...150NE 115SE 80SW 125NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 21.4N 177.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 22.3N 179.6W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 168.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER MATSUDA ** WTPA32 PHFO 220840 *** TCPCP2 BULLETIN HURRICANE IOKE ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 1100 PM HST MON AUG 21 2006 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 PM HST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 168.1 WEST OR ABOUT 155 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND AND ABOUT 800 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...OAHU. IOKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IOKE IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB OR 27.91 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM HST POSITION 14.9 N...168.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM HST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST. $$ FORECASTER MATSUDA ** WTPZ44 KNHC 220842 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 200 AM PDT TUE AUG 22 2006 AN AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS OF A 0336Z QUIKSCAT PASS AND 0251Z 37 GHZ AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM HECTOR IS FINALLY BECOMING DECOUPLED FROM THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE'S MOVEMENT HAS SLOWED AND...BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE DATA... THE TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER HAS BEEN ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE...PRESUMABLY HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY. IN FACT...THE QUIKSCAT DATA SUGGESTED THAT THE INTENSITY WAS CLOSE TO 40 KT. HOWEVER NOW THAT HECTOR'S LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS BECOMING DECOUPLED...IT HAS PROBABLY SPUN DOWN TO MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. HECTOR SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...COOL WATERS AND STABLE AIR. THE 12-H TRACK FORECAST ACCOUNTS FOR THE SLOWER INITIAL MOTION OF 285/4. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK THEN CONTINUES ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD AND FASTER MOTION IN CONSIDERATION OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND STEERING BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0900Z 22.4N 136.5W 35 KT 12HR VT 22/1800Z 22.6N 137.4W 30 KT 24HR VT 23/0600Z 22.9N 139.1W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 23/1800Z 23.1N 141.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 24/0600Z 23.3N 143.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH/FIORINO ** WTPZ24 KNHC 220842 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 0900 UTC TUE AUG 22 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 136.5W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 75NE 0SE 0SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 30SE 30SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 136.5W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 136.2W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.6N 137.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 22.9N 139.1W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 23.1N 141.2W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 23.3N 143.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N 136.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH/FIORINO ** WTPZ45 KNHC 220850 *** TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006 200 AM PDT TUE AUG 22 2006 ILEANA'S CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED WITH BETTER-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES. HOWEVER THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS NOT INCREASED. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT...45 KT...AND 45 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA RESPECTIVELY. ALSO...OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS YIELD AN INTENSITY OF 45 KT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT AN 0308 UTC SSM/I IMAGE SUGGESTED A WELL-ORGANIZED...AND PERHAPS STRONGER...SYSTEM. HOWEVER THERE IS NO OPERATIONALLY-ACCEPTED TECHNIQUES FOR ESTIMATING INTENSITY FROM SUCH IMAGERY. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET...PERHAPS CONSERVATIVELY...AT 45 KT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SUCH AS SSTS... VERTICAL SHEAR...MOIST MID-TROPOSPHERIC AIR...AND INSTABILITY...ALL APPEAR TO BE PROPITIOUS FOR INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS STEADY STRENGTHENING UP TO 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...DECREASING SSTS ARE LIKELY TO INDUCE SLOW WEAKENING. INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 295/12. THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. ILEANA IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED BY THE FLOW ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE GFS PREDICTS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC LOW OFF OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. BY THAT TIME...IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT ILEANA WILL BE WEAKENING...AND NOT RESPOND SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE LOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS RATHER CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OF MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0900Z 14.0N 105.6W 45 KT 12HR VT 22/1800Z 15.0N 107.3W 55 KT 24HR VT 23/0600Z 16.3N 109.5W 70 KT 36HR VT 23/1800Z 17.6N 111.6W 80 KT 48HR VT 24/0600Z 18.8N 113.6W 90 KT 72HR VT 25/0600Z 20.5N 116.5W 85 KT 96HR VT 26/0600Z 21.5N 119.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 27/0600Z 22.5N 121.5W 40 KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTPZ25 KNHC 220850 *** TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006 0900 UTC TUE AUG 22 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 105.6W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......150NE 125SE 100SW 125NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 125SE 100SW 125NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 105.6W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 105.0W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 15.0N 107.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 125SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 16.3N 109.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 125SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 17.6N 111.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...175NE 150SE 125SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 18.8N 113.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...175NE 150SE 125SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 20.5N 116.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...175NE 150SE 125SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 21.5N 119.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 22.5N 121.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 105.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTNT24 KNHC 220851 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 0900 UTC TUE AUG 22 2006 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 24.6W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 24.6W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 24.0W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 13.7N 26.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.1N 29.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 16.7N 32.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 18.3N 34.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 21.5N 40.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 24.5N 46.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 27.5N 51.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 24.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH ** WTNT44 KNHC 220851 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 500 AM EDT TUE AUG 22 2006 THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND NEW CONVECTION HAS BEEN DEVELOPING CLOSE TO THE ESTIMATED CENTER. HOWEVER...SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 25 KT FROM AFWA. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 30 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/14...SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN BEFORE. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEST- NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SOUTH OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE THROUGH 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE UKMET MODEL DEPICTS A WEAKER CYCLONE...THAT IS STEERED MORE WESTWARD BY THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW. THE GFS AND GFDL DEPICT A STRONGER SYSTEM THAT CONTINUES NORTHWEST INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST REMAINS A LITTLE LEFT OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE BEYOND 72 HOURS...AND IS CLOSEST TO THE GFDL AND CONU CONSENSUS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WARM WATER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER THIS MORNING. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SHIPS MODEL HALTS STRENGTHENING AT DAYS 4 AND 5 DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0900Z 12.8N 24.6W 30 KT 12HR VT 22/1800Z 13.7N 26.6W 35 KT 24HR VT 23/0600Z 15.1N 29.3W 40 KT 36HR VT 23/1800Z 16.7N 32.0W 45 KT 48HR VT 24/0600Z 18.3N 34.8W 50 KT 72HR VT 25/0600Z 21.5N 40.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 26/0600Z 24.5N 46.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 27/0600Z 27.5N 51.5W 65 KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN ** WTNT34 KNHC 220855 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 500 AM AST TUE AUG 22 2006 ...OUTER RAIN BANDS SPREADING OVER SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 24.6 WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES...225 KM...SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE DEPRESSION WILL BE PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHWESTERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IN A FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...OUTER RAIN BANDS AND SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...12.8 N...24.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH ** WTCA44 TJSJ 220906 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL NUMERO CUATRO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 3 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL042006 500 AM AST MARTES 22 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...LAS BANDAS DE LLUVIA DEL BORDE EXTERIOR SE ESTAN ESPARCIENDO SOBRE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE SUR... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON ANTICIPADAS EN EL AREA CUBIERTA POR EL AVISO DENTRO DE 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL NUMERO CUATRO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 12.8 NORTE... LONGITUD 24.6 OESTE O COMO A 140 MILLAS...225 KM...AL SUR DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE SUR. LA DEPRESION SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NOROESTE HOY. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA ...LA DEPRESION ESTARA PASANDO JUSTO AL SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE SURENAS EN ALGUNAS HORAS. SIN EMBARGO SE ESPERA QUE LAS BANDAS DE LLUVIAS EXTERIORES Y TURBONADAS CONTINUEN AFECTANDO A LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE SUR HOY. LOS VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA QUE LA DEPRESION SE TORNE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 1007 MB...29.74 PULGADAS. ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS...CON TOTALES AISLADOS DE HASTA 10 PULGADAS EN AREAS DE TERRENO MAS ELEVADO...SON POSIBLE SOBRE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE SUR ASOCIADAS CON ESTA DEPRESION. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS QUE AMENAZEN VIDAS Y DESLIZES DE LODO. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 AM AST...12.8 NORTE...24.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 16 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1007 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 800 AM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR BROWN/PASCH TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DE PRONOSTICOS DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTPN32 PHNC 221000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/220930AUG2006// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/220940AUG2006// NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 01C (IOKE) WARNING NR 010 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 220600Z --- NEAR 14.9N 168.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 316 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 168.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 16.2N 169.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 17.3N 170.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 18.2N 171.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 18.9N 172.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 20.3N 174.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 21.4N 177.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 22.3N 179.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT --- REMARKS: 221000Z POSITION NEAR 15.3N 168.5W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221600Z, 222200Z, 230400Z AND 231000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 09E (HECTOR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10E (ILEANA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN33 PHNC 221000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/220935AUG2006// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/220930AUG2006// NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 10E (ILEANA) WARNING NR 004 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 220600Z --- NEAR 14.0N 105.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 316 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.0N 105.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 15.0N 107.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 16.3N 109.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 17.6N 111.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 18.8N 113.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 20.5N 116.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 21.5N 119.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 22.5N 121.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT --- REMARKS: 221000Z POSITION NEAR 14.3N 106.2W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221600Z, 222200Z, 230400Z AND 231000Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 01C (IOKE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 09E (HECTOR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 221000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/220935AUG2006// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/220940AUG2006// NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 09E (HECTOR) WARNING NR 027 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 220600Z --- NEAR 22.4N 136.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.4N 136.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 22.6N 137.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 22.9N 139.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 23.1N 141.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 23.3N 143.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 221000Z POSITION NEAR 22.5N 136.8W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221600Z, 222200Z, 230400Z AND 231000Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 01C (IOKE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10E (ILEANA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTNT34 KNHC 221139 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 800 AM AST TUE AUG 22 2006 ...DEPRESSION CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 25.2 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES...210 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY PASSING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. OUTER RAIN BANDS AND SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...13.0 N...25.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTCA44 TJSJ 221146 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL NUMERO CUATRO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 3A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL042006 800 AM AST MARTES 22 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...LA DEPRESION CONTINUA AL OESTE-NOROESTE AL SUR DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE... CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 800 AM AST...1200Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL NUMERO CUATRO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 13.0 NORTE... LONGITUD 25.2 OESTE O COMO A 130 MILLAS...210 KM...AL SUR-SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE SUR. LA DEPRESION SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NOROESTE HOY. SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NOROESTE HOY. LA DEPRESION ESTA AHORA PASANDO AL SUR Y AL SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE. BANDAS DE LLUVIA EXTERIORES Y TURBONADAS CONTINUARAN AFECTANDO LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE SUR HOY. LOS VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA QUE LA DEPRESION SE TORNE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 1007 MB...29.74 PULGADAS. ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS...CON TOTALES AISLADOS DE HASTA 6 PULGADAS EN AREAS DE TERRENO MAS ELEVADO...SON POSIBLE SOBRE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE SUR ASOCIADAS CON ESTA DEPRESION. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS QUE AMENAZEN VIDAS Y DESLIZES DE LODO. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 800 AM AST...13.0 NORTE...25.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 16 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1007 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1100 AM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DE PRONOSTICOS DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTCA44 TJSJ 221155 CCA *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL NUMERO CUATRO ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 3A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL042006 800 AM AST MARTES 22 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...LA DEPRESION CONTINUA AL OESTE-NOROESTE AL SUR DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE... CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 800 AM AST...1200Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL NUMERO CUATRO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 13.0 NORTE... LONGITUD 25.2 OESTE O COMO A 130 MILLAS...210 KM...AL SUR-SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE SUR. LA DEPRESION SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NOROESTE HOY. SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NOROESTE HOY. LA DEPRESION ESTA AHORA PASANDO AL SUR Y AL SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE. BANDAS DE LLUVIA EXTERIORES Y TURBONADAS CONTINUARAN AFECTANDO LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE SUR HOY. LOS VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA QUE LA DEPRESION SE TORNE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 1007 MB...29.74 PULGADAS. ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS...CON TOTALES AISLADOS DE HASTA 6 PULGADAS EN AREAS DE TERRENO MAS ELEVADO...SON POSIBLE SOBRE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE SUR ASOCIADAS CON ESTA DEPRESION. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS QUE AMENAZEN VIDAS Y DESLIZES DE LODO. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 800 AM AST...13.0 NORTE...25.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 16 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1007 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1100 AM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DE PRONOSTICOS DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO