** WTPA32 PHFO 220002 *** TCPCP2 BULLETIN HURRICANE IOKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 200 PM HST MON AUG 21 2006 ...MAJOR HURRICANE IOKE EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO JOHNSTON ISLAND WITHIN 24 HOURS... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. ALL INTERESTS IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS HURRICANE. HURRICANE IOKE IS NOT A THREAT TO THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. AT 200 PM HST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 167.0 WEST OR ABOUT 280 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND AND ABOUT 810 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU. IOKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES. REPEATING THE 200 PM HST POSITION...13.4 N...167.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM HST. $$ FORECASTER TANABE/NASH/R BALLARD ** WTSR20 WSSS 211800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTCA44 TJSJ 220011 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL NUMERO CUATRO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 1A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL042006 800 PM AST LUNES 21 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...DEPRESION TROPICAL MOVIENDOSE UN POCO MAS RAPIDO HACIA EL OESTE EN EL LEJANO ATLANTICO ORIENTAL... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON ANTICIPADAS EN EL AREA CUBIERTO POR EL AVISO DENTRO DE 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 8 PM AST...0000 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL NUMERO CUATRO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 12.0 NORTE... LONGITUD 22.6 OESTE O COMO A 210 MILLAS...335 KM...AL SUR SURESTE DE ISLAS DE CABO VERDE SURENAS. LA DEPRESION O SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE CERCA DE 15 MPH, UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE ES ANTICIPADO POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA...LA DEPRESION ESTARA PASANDO JUSTO AL SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE SURENAS DURANTE EL DIA DE MANANA. SIN EMBARGO LAS BANDAS DE LLUVIAS LIMITROFES Y TURBONADAS GRADUALMENTE SE MOVERAN A TRAVES DE LAS CABO VERDE SURENAS COMENZANDO EN LA MANANA DEL MARTES. LOS VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA QUE LA DEPRESION PROBABLEMENTE SE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 1007 MB...29.74 PULGADAS. ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS...CON TOTALES AISLADOS DE HASTA 10 PULGADAS EN AREAS DE TERRENO MAS ELEVADO...SON POSIBLE SOBRE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE ASOCIADOS CON ESTA DEPERSION. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS MORTALES Y DESLIZES DE LODO. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 PM AST...12.0 NORTE...22.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1007 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM $$ PRONOSTICADOR STEWART TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DE PRONOSTICOS DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTNT34 KNHC 220219 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 1100 PM AST MON AUG 21 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 23.2 WEST OR ABOUT 195 MILES...315 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO ...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED AFTER THAT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE DEPRESSION WILL BE PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHWESTERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. HOWEVER...OUTER RAIN BANDS AND SQUALLS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...12.2 N...23.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTNT44 KNHC 220221 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 1100 PM EDT MON AUG 21 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR REMAINS A LARGE AND WELL-ORGANIZED SYSTEM...DESPITE A DECREASE IN THE INNER CORE CONVECTION. A 21/1914Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED THE DEPRESSION HAD A SURFACE WIND FIELD ENVELOPE AT LEAST 500 NMI IN DIAMETER...WITH NUMEROUS 25-30 KT UNCONTAMINATED WIND VECTORS LOCATED IN THE DRY SLOTS. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...AND THE LACK OF INNER CORE CONVECTION ...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 30 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/13...BASED ON A 10-HOUR AVERAGE MOTION USING PASSIVE AND QUIKSCAT MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA. THE AFOREMENTIONED QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED THE CENTER OF TD-4 WAS SOUTH OF 12N LATITUDE AT THAT TIME...PROBABLY DUE TO REFORMATION OF THE BROAD LOW-LEVEL CENTER CLOSER TO THE BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE GLOBAL MODELS...AS WELL AS THE GFDL AND THE BAM MODELS...REMAIN TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON AN IMMEDIATE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. UNFORTUNATELY... THE MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN EXCELLENTLY WRONG THUS FAR. TD-4 IS CURRENTLY AT LEAST 60 NMI SOUTHWEST OF THE 18Z GFS FORECAST POSITION FOR 22/00Z...AND THE OTHER MODELS ARE SIMILARLY TOO FAR TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CURRENT POSITION. AS A RESULT...I AM NOT TOO ENTHRALLED WITH THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND WE MAY SEE THE CYCLONE TURN OUT TO BE MORE OF A WEST-RUNNER THAN A RECURVER THROUGH THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS WELL AS WATER VAPOR-DERIVED WINDS AND UPPER-AIR DATA FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SUGGEST THAT THE MID-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE IS STRONGER THAN THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING...AND THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH ALSO APPEARS TO BE BUILDING WESTWARD. THE FORECAST TRACK WAS SHIFTED TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT NOT AS FAR WEST AS THE CLIPER MODEL AND STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE SKILL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. HOWEVER...IF TD-4 DOES NOT MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS 20N LATITUDE WITHIN 4 DAYS...THEN THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY MISS THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE THAT ALL THE MODELS FORECAST TO DEVELOP. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WAS LOWERED SLIGHTLY IN THE FIRST 48 HOURS DUE TO THE LACK OF INNER-CORE CONVECTION AND WEAK TO MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR FORECAST TO UNDERCUT THE OTHERWISE IMPRESSIVE AND EXPANDING OUTFLOW PATTERN. AFTER THAT...GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AS THE SHEAR DECREASES TO 5-10 KT AND THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER WARMER WATERS. DUE TO THE LARGE WIND FIELD DEPICTED IN THE EARLIER QUIKSCAT OVERPASS...12-FT SEA HEIGHT RADII WERE ADDED TO THE FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0300Z 12.2N 23.2W 30 KT 12HR VT 22/1200Z 12.9N 25.1W 35 KT 24HR VT 23/0000Z 14.1N 27.7W 40 KT 36HR VT 23/1200Z 15.9N 30.6W 45 KT 48HR VT 24/0000Z 17.5N 33.4W 50 KT 72HR VT 25/0000Z 20.5N 38.4W 60 KT 96HR VT 26/0000Z 24.0N 44.5W 65 KT 120HR VT 27/0000Z 27.0N 51.0W 65 KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTNT24 KNHC 220221 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 0300 UTC TUE AUG 22 2006 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 23.2W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 120SE 140SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 23.2W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 22.6W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 12.9N 25.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 14.1N 27.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 15.9N 30.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 17.5N 33.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 20.5N 38.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 24.0N 44.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 27.0N 51.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.2N 23.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTCA44 TJSJ 220232 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL NUMERO CUATRO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 2 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL042006 1100 PM AST LUNES 21 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...DEPRESION TROPICAL PASANDO JUSTO AL SUR DE LAS ISLAS CABO VERDE SUR... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON ANTICIPADAS EN EL AREA CUBIERTAPOR EL AVISO DENTRO DE 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL NUMERO CUATRO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 12.2 NORTE... LONGITUD 23.2 OESTE O COMO A 195 MILLAS...315 KM...AL SUR-SURESTE DE ISLAS DE CABO VERDE SURENAS. LA DEPRESION SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH. SE PRONOSTICA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUARA POR LAS PROXIMAS 12 HORAS MAS O MENOS...CON UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NOROESTE DESPUES DE EST. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA...LA DEPRESION ESTARA PASANDO JUSTO AL SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE SURENAS DURANTE EL DIA DE MANANA. SIN EMBARGO LAS BANDAS DE LLUVIAS LIMITROFES Y TURBONADAS GRADUALMENTE SE MOVERAN A TRAVES DE LAS CABO VERDE SURENAS COMENZANDO EN LA MANANA DEL MARTES. LOS VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA QUE LA DEPRESION PROBABLEMENTE SE TORNE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 1007 MB...29.74 PULGADAS. ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS...CON TOTALES AISLADOS DE HASTA 10 PULGADAS EN AREAS DE TERRENO MAS ELEVADO...SON POSIBLE SOBRE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE SUR ASOCIADAS CON ESTA DEPRESION. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS QUE AMENAZEN VIDAS Y DESLIZES DE LODO. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM AST...12.2 NORTE...23.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1007 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 200 AM. $$ PRONOSTICADOR STEWART TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DE PRONOSTICOS DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTPA32 PHFO 220255 *** TCPCP2 BULLETIN HURRICANE IOKE ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 500 PM HST MON AUG 21 2006 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. ALL INTERESTS IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS HURRICANE. HURRICANE IOKE IS NOT A THREAT TO THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. AT 500 PM HST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 167.4 WEST OR ABOUT 240 MILES...SOUTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND AND ABOUT 810 MILES... SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU. IOKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IOKE IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 PM HST POSITION...13.9 N...167.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM HST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST. $$ FORECASTER TANABE/NASH ** WTPA22 PHFO 220256 *** TCMCP2 HURRICANE IOKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 0300 UTC TUE AUG 22 2006 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 167.4W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 45NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 70SE 55SW 75NW. 34 KT.......160NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..160NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 167.4W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 167.0W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 15.2N 168.6W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 95NE 75SE 55SW 75NW. 34 KT...165NE 125SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 16.6N 170.0W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 95NE 75SE 55SW 75NW. 34 KT...165NE 125SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.7N 171.3W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 75SE 55SW 75NW. 34 KT...160NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 18.4N 172.2W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 65SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...150NE 115SE 80SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 19.9N 174.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 65SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...150NE 115SE 80SW 125NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 21.0N 176.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 21.9N 179.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 167.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER TANABE/NASH ** WTPZ45 KNHC 220257 *** TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006 800 PM PDT MON AUG 21 2006 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BURSTING PATTERN WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C WITHIN A DEVELOPING CDO. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB AND AFWA ARE ALL AT T2.5. GIVEN THE NEW CDO AND CONTINUED BANDING FEATURES...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY TO 40 KT. THE SYSTEM HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION AND GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO EXTEND OUT PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 150 NMI ON THE NORTH SIDE...THOUGH LITTLE IN SITU DATA HAVE BEEN AVAILABLE. ILEANA IS MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING OUT FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED SUGGESTING A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT DAYS FOUR AND FIVE...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW IS PREDICTED TO DEVELOP WEST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY THE GFS AND A WEAKER FEATURE IS FORECAST BY THE NOGAPS. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME THAT THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REACH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO CAUSE ILEANA TO TURN TO THE RIGHT. THE FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL AND GFDL MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NOGAPS...WHICH DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE THE VORTEX INITIALIZED WELL. ALL ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ILEANA TO POSSIBLY RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN -- VERY LOW WIND SHEAR...HIGH SSTS...LARGE AMOUNTS OF LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE...AND INCREASINGLY IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE FEATURES. THE EASTERN PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX SUGGESTS ABOUT AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF AT LEAST 25 KT OF INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THUS ILEANA IS PREDICTED TO REACH HURRICANE FORCE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS CONDUCIVE BEYOND 72 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES COOLER SSTS AND MORE STABLE AIR...SO WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING THOUGH...IF ILEANA REACHED MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS IN 48 TO 72 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0300Z 13.3N 104.3W 40 KT 12HR VT 22/1200Z 14.1N 106.0W 55 KT 24HR VT 23/0000Z 15.1N 108.3W 70 KT 36HR VT 23/1200Z 16.6N 110.2W 80 KT 48HR VT 24/0000Z 18.0N 112.2W 90 KT 72HR VT 25/0000Z 20.0N 115.5W 85 KT 96HR VT 26/0000Z 21.0N 118.5W 70 KT 120HR VT 27/0000Z 22.0N 121.0W 45 KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART/LANDSEA ** WTPZ25 KNHC 220257 *** TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006 0300 UTC TUE AUG 22 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 104.3W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......150NE 125SE 100SW 125NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 104.3W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 103.7W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 14.1N 106.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...175NE 150SE 125SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.1N 108.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...175NE 150SE 125SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.6N 110.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...175NE 150SE 125SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 18.0N 112.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...175NE 150SE 125SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 20.0N 115.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...175NE 150SE 125SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 21.0N 118.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 22.0N 121.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 104.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART/LANDSEA ** WTPZ44 KNHC 220258 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 800 PM PDT MON AUG 21 2006 MODERATE CONVECTION IN HECTOR IS LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...THOUGH IT IS DISPLACED OVER 100 NMI FROM HECTOR'S CENTER. DVORAK ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO DROP AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STATUS IN DEFERENCE TO THE EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS THAT SHOWED SEVERAL 40 KT UNCONTAMINATED VECTORS. HECTOR SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...COOL WATERS AND STABLE AIR. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/6 AS IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT HECTOR WILL MAKE THE TURN...FINALLY...TO THE WEST AS IT DECAYS AND MOVES WITH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. THE FORECAST TRACK IS JUST ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CONSENSUS BUT SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS PREDICTIONS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0300Z 22.6N 135.9W 35 KT 12HR VT 22/1200Z 23.0N 136.6W 30 KT 24HR VT 23/0000Z 23.2N 138.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 23/1200Z 23.4N 140.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 24/0000Z 23.5N 142.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART/LANDSEA ** WTPZ24 KNHC 220258 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 0300 UTC TUE AUG 22 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 135.9W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 75NE 50SE 0SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..125NE 50SE 50SW 125NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 135.9W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 135.7W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 23.0N 136.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.2N 138.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 23.4N 140.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 23.5N 142.3W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N 135.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART/LANDSEA ** WTPA42 PHFO 220304 *** TCDCP2 HURRICANE IOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 500 PM HST MON AUG 21 2006 HURRICANE IOKE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY FEATURING A WELL DEFINED EYE/EYEWALL STRUCTURE AND GOOD OVERALL SYMMETRY IN VISIBLE AND IR IMAGERY. INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE VARIOUS SATELLITE AGENCIES RANGE FROM T5.5 TO T6.0. GIVEN THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF IOKE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...WILL CONTINUE TO HEDGE TOWARD THE HIGHER DVORAK ESTIMATES. THUS...HAVE UPGRADED IOKE TO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 115 KT. IOKE IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWEST AT 11 KT...REPRESENTING A FAIRLY CLIMATOLOGICAL TRACK GIVEN ITS POSITION IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. THE MOST RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE EAST AND SLOWED DOWN THROUGH 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH 48 HOURS FOLLOWED THIS TREND...PLACING IOKE WITHIN 30 MILES OF JOHNSTON ISLAND AT 24 HOURS. AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND...ALL THE DYNAMIC AIDS SHIFTED MARKEDLY TO THE WEST. THIS SHIFT IS IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGING NORTH OF IOKE...THAT WILL CURTAIL ITS NORTHWARD MOTION AND FAVOR A MORE WEST NORTHWEST TRACK. A RESULT...AT 72 HOURS HAVE BEGUN A SHIFT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TO THE WEST. AT 96 AND 120 HOURS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TO THE WEST OR SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...THOUGH STILL RIGHT OR NORTH OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS. THE DYNAMIC AIDS AT 96 AND 120 HOURS ARE ALSO SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS...AND HAVE ACCORDINGLY ADJUSTED THE LONG TERM SPEED DOWNWARD. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST...GIVEN THE RECENT SHIFT IN MODEL GUIDANCE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY TO 120 KT AT 24 AND 36 HOURS...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMIC GUIDANCE. THEREAFTER...THE 18Z GFDL AND GFS INDICATE ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION THROUGH 120 HOURS...WHILE THE 12Z UKMET SUGGESTS A GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH 72 HOURS AND THEN LEVELING OUT. WILL FOLLOW THE UKMET TREND...KEEPING IOKE AT CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH THROUGH 36 HOURS...THEN AT CATEGORY 3 STRENGTH THEREAFTER. THIS CHANGE REPRESENTS A RATHER SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST CALLING FOR WEAKENING FROM 48 HOURS AND BEYOND. THE SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTED MORE RAPID WEAKENING BEYOND 48 HOURS...BUT IS BASED UPON A FORECAST TRACK TAKING IOKE NORTH OF 23N. AS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK MAINTAINS IOKE AT 21N AND SOUTH...HAVE DISREGARDED THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. ALL INTERESTS IN THE VICINITY OF JOHNSTON ISLAND SHOULD IMMEDIATELY PREPARE FOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0300Z 13.9N 167.4W 115 KT 12HR VT 22/1200Z 15.2N 168.6W 120 KT 24HR VT 23/0000Z 16.6N 170.0W 120 KT 36HR VT 23/1200Z 17.7N 171.3W 115 KT 48HR VT 24/0000Z 18.4N 172.2W 110 KT 72HR VT 25/0000Z 19.9N 174.2W 105 KT 96HR VT 26/0000Z 21.0N 176.4W 105 KT 120HR VT 27/0000Z 21.9N 179.0W 105 KT $$ FORECASTER TANABE/NASH ** WTNT80 EGRR 220457 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 22.08.2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ANALYSED POSITION : 11.8N 23.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 22.08.2006 11.8N 23.0W MODERATE 12UTC 22.08.2006 12.2N 24.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.08.2006 14.4N 26.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.08.2006 15.9N 29.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.08.2006 17.4N 32.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.08.2006 18.2N 35.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.08.2006 19.2N 38.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.08.2006 20.0N 41.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.08.2006 20.2N 44.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.08.2006 22.0N 47.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.08.2006 22.0N 50.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.08.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM HECTOR ANALYSED POSITION : 22.3N 135.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP092006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 22.08.2006 22.3N 135.8W WEAK 12UTC 22.08.2006 23.4N 136.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.08.2006 23.5N 139.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.08.2006 23.7N 141.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.08.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM ILEANA ANALYSED POSITION : 11.8N 103.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 22.08.2006 11.8N 103.8W MODERATE 12UTC 22.08.2006 12.9N 106.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.08.2006 15.2N 108.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.08.2006 16.6N 111.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.08.2006 18.2N 113.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.08.2006 19.3N 115.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.08.2006 20.3N 116.8W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 25.08.2006 20.8N 118.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.08.2006 21.2N 119.4W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 26.08.2006 21.3N 120.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.08.2006 21.2N 121.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.08.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE IOKE ANALYSED POSITION : 13.6N 166.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP012006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 22.08.2006 13.6N 166.4W STRONG 12UTC 22.08.2006 15.1N 168.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.08.2006 16.3N 169.5W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.08.2006 17.4N 170.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.08.2006 18.1N 171.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.08.2006 18.6N 172.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.08.2006 19.2N 173.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.08.2006 19.4N 175.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.08.2006 19.7N 176.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.08.2006 19.8N 177.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.08.2006 19.6N 178.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.08.2006 19.2N 179.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.08.2006 18.6N 179.0E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 220457 ** WTPN33 PHNC 220400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/220335AUG2006// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/220330AUG2006// NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 10E (ILEANA) WARNING NR 003 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 220000Z --- NEAR 12.5N 104.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.5N 104.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 13.8N 106.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 15.1N 108.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 16.6N 110.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 18.0N 112.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 20.0N 115.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 21.0N 118.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 22.0N 121.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT --- REMARKS: 220400Z POSITION NEAR 12.9N 104.7W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221000Z, 221600Z, 222200Z AND 230400Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 01C (IOKE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 09E (HECTOR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 220400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/220335AUG2006// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/220340AUG2006// NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 09E (HECTOR) WARNING NR 026 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 220000Z --- NEAR 22.6N 135.9W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.6N 135.9W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 23.0N 136.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 23.2N 138.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 23.4N 140.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 23.5N 142.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 220400Z POSITION NEAR 22.7N 136.1W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221000Z, 221600Z, 222200Z AND 230400Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 01C (IOKE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10E (ILEANA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PHNC 220400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/220330AUG2006// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/220340AUG2006// NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 01C (IOKE) WARNING NR 009 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 220000Z --- NEAR 13.9N 167.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.9N 167.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 15.2N 168.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 16.6N 170.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 17.7N 171.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 18.4N 172.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 19.9N 174.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 21.0N 176.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 21.9N 179.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT --- REMARKS: 220400Z POSITION NEAR 14.3N 167.8W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221000Z, 221600Z, 222200Z AND 230400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 09E (HECTOR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10E (ILEANA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTNT34 KNHC 220541 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 200 AM AST TUE AUG 22 2006 ...OUTER RAIN BANDS APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 24.0 WEST OR ABOUT 170 MILES...270 KM...SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH... 26 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED AFTER THAT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE DEPRESSION WILL BE PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHWESTERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...OUTER RAIN BANDS AND SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 200 AM AST POSITION...12.5 N...24.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH ** WTCA44 TJSJ 220550 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL NUMERO CUATRO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 2A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL042006 200 AM AST MARTES 22 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...LAS BANDAS DE LLUVIA DEL BORDE EXTERIOR ACERCANDOSE A LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE SUR... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON ANTICIPADAS EN EL AREA CUBIERTA POR EL AVISO DENTRO DE 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL NUMERO CUATRO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 12.5 NORTE... LONGITUD 24.0 OESTE O COMO A 170 MILLAS...270 KM...AL SUR DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE SUR. LA DEPRESION SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. SE PRONOSTICA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUARA POR LAS PROXIMAS 12 HORAS MAS O MENOS...Y DESPUES SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NOROESTE. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA...LA DEPRESION ESTARA PASANDO JUSTO AL SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE SURENAS MAS TARDE ESTA MANANA. SIN EMBARGO SE ESPERA QUE LAS BANDAS DE LLUVIAS EXTERIORES Y TURBONADAS AFECTEN A LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE SUR HOY. LOS VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA QUE LA DEPRESION SE TORNE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 1007 MB...29.74 PULGADAS. ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS...CON TOTALES AISLADOS DE HASTA 10 PULGADAS EN AREAS DE TERRENO MAS ELEVADO...SON POSIBLE SOBRE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE SUR ASOCIADAS CON ESTA DEPRESION. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS QUE AMENAZEN VIDAS Y DESLIZES DE LODO. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 200 AM AST...12.5 NORTE...24.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 16 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1007 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 AM. $$ PRONOSTICADOR BROWN/PASCH TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DE PRONOSTICOS DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO