** WTNT34 KNHC 212033 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 500 PM AST MON AUG 21 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC... AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 21.5 WEST OR ABOUT 250 MILES...405 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE DEPRESSION WILL BE PASSING VERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TOMORROW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...12.5 N...21.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTNT44 KNHC 212034 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 500 PM EDT MON AUG 21 2006 THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS BEEN MAINTAINING ENOUGH CONVECTIVE BANDING TODAY TO WARRANT DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF T1.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 18Z. SINCE THEN...A SMALL BURST OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER. GIVEN THIS...AND THE BROAD CYCLONIC ENVELOPE OF THE LOW...ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/10. THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...BUT THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO SLIDE EASTWARD AS A SERIES OF MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND ERODE THE RIDGE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO TAKE A TRACK BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND GFDL GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS THE BAM SUITE OF MODELS. NEITHER THE UKMET NOR NOGAPS HANG ON TO THE CYCLONE AND THESE MODELS TAKE ITS REMNANTS WESTWARD. OUTER BANDING STRUCTURES ARE WELL DEFINED...BUT OVERALL THE CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE IS STILL A LITTLE THIN. WATER TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT AND THE SHEAR IS LIGHT. DURING DAYS 2 AND 3 OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER SOMEWHAT COOLER WATERS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS ONLY SLOW DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ARE WITHIN THE FORECAST TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND SWATH...AND THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/2100Z 12.5N 21.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 22/0600Z 13.0N 23.0W 35 KT 24HR VT 22/1800Z 14.2N 25.2W 45 KT 36HR VT 23/0600Z 15.5N 27.5W 50 KT 48HR VT 23/1800Z 17.0N 30.0W 55 KT 72HR VT 24/1800Z 20.0N 35.5W 55 KT 96HR VT 25/1800Z 23.5N 41.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 26/1800Z 26.5N 46.5W 60 KT $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTNT24 KNHC 212034 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 2100 UTC MON AUG 21 2006 AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 21.5W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 21.5W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 21.0W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 13.0N 23.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 14.2N 25.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.5N 27.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 17.0N 30.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 20.0N 35.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 23.5N 41.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 26.5N 46.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 21.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTPZ44 KNHC 212035 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 200 PM PDT MON AUG 21 2006 A 15Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS THAT HECTOR WAS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED...WITH SEVERAL BELIEVABLE 40 KT VECTORS...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED UPWARD TO REFLECT THIS. NEVERTHELESS...THERE IS VERY LIMITED CONVECTION AND HECTOR IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SPIN DOWN OVER 23C WATERS. WESTERLY SHEAR IS STRONG AND NOT FORECAST TO ABATE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 325/6. HECTOR HAS APPARENTLY BEEN MAINTAINING ENOUGH CONVECTION FOR THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TO DEFLECT THE MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF PREVIOUS FORECASTS. AS THIS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DECAY...A LEFTWARD TURN IS EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE NOGAPS GUIDANCE...WITH MOST OF THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOWING A MORE ABRUPT WESTWARD TURN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/2100Z 22.3N 135.5W 40 KT 12HR VT 22/0600Z 22.8N 136.2W 30 KT 24HR VT 22/1800Z 23.3N 137.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 23/0600Z 23.5N 139.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 23/1800Z 23.5N 141.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 24/1800Z 24.0N 145.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTPZ24 KNHC 212035 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 2100 UTC MON AUG 21 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 135.5W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 75SE 75SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 135.5W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 135.3W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 22.8N 136.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 23.3N 137.5W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 23.5N 139.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 23.5N 141.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 24.0N 145.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 135.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTPZ45 KNHC 212045 *** TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006 200 PM PDT MON AUG 21 2006 VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE CURVED BAND FORMING IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LARGE SYSTEM ALONG WITH PLENTY OF BANDING TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. A 29 KT WIND REPORT WAS ALSO RECEIVED FROM SHIP ELTZ7 A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OUTSIDE OF THE STRONGEST CONVECTION. WITH THE IMPROVING SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND DT NUMBERS AT 2.5 OR ABOVE... AT LEAST 35 KT... THE NINTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON IS BORN. CIRRUS OUTFLOW FROM ILEANA IS EXPANDING IN ALL DIRECTIONS... ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH. WATER VAPOR IMAGES INDICATE AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LIES JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM PROVIDING EASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW... AND CONSEQUENTLY LIGHT SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ILEANA WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THIS RIDGE... A FAVORABLE SPOT FOR FUTURE INTENSIFICATION... FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ADDITION... RATHER WARM WATERS GREATER THAN 29C ALSO LIE ALONG THAT TRACK. THE SHIPS MODEL RESPONDS TO THESE CONDUCIVE PARAMETERS BY INTENSIFYING ILEANA TO HURRICANE-STRENGTH IN A LITTLE OVER 24 HOURS AND 88 KT IN 60 HOURS... JUST ABOUT AS FAST AN INTENSIFICATION AS THE STATISTICAL MODEL CAN PRODUCE. THIS PROJECTION MAY NOT BE UNREALISTIC GIVEN THE EASTERN PACIFIC RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX WHICH SHOWS A 73% CHANCE OF A 25 KT OR MORE INCREASE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO SHIPS AND SHOWS RAPID INTENSIFICATION FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A MORE MODEST STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER. WEAKENING IS SHOWN AFTER 72 HOURS BECAUSE OF THE SYSTEM PASSING THE 26C ISOTHERM. THE INITIAL HEADING IS ABOUT 300 AT 10 KT. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN MEXICO WILL BUILD WESTWARD WITH TIME. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE STORM ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SCENARIO WITH SOME SMALL DISAGREEMENTS. THE GFDL... WHICH HAD BEEN ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE... HAS SHIFTED LEFTWARD... LIKE THE GFS. THE UKMET AND ECMWF ARE TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS THOUGH ALL MODELS STAY OFFSHORE OF MEXICO. SINCE THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE HAVE SHOWN GOOD CONSISTENCY AND REPRESENTATIONS OF THE CYCLONE... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE... A TOUCH SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ENLARGED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LARGE SIZE OF THE SYSTEM DOCUMENTED FROM SATELLITE AND SHIP REPORTS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/2100Z 12.8N 103.2W 35 KT 12HR VT 22/0600Z 13.6N 104.6W 45 KT 24HR VT 22/1800Z 14.7N 106.6W 60 KT 36HR VT 23/0600Z 15.9N 108.7W 70 KT 48HR VT 23/1800Z 17.3N 110.9W 80 KT 72HR VT 24/1800Z 20.0N 115.0W 85 KT 96HR VT 25/1800Z 22.0N 118.5W 75 KT 120HR VT 26/1800Z 24.0N 122.0W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN ** WTPZ25 KNHC 212045 *** TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006 2100 UTC MON AUG 21 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 103.2W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......150NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 103.2W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 102.8W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 13.6N 104.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 14.7N 106.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.9N 108.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 17.3N 110.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 20.0N 115.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...175NE 125SE 125SW 125NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 22.0N 118.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 24.0N 122.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 103.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN ** WTPA22 PHFO 212053 *** TCMCP2 HURRICANE IOKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 2100 UTC MON AUG 21 2006 AT 11 AM HST...2100Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 166.3W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 45NE 40SE 35SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 65SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT.......140NE 110SE 100SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..140NE 110SE 100SW 130NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 166.3W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 165.9W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 14.3N 167.6W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 40SE 35SW 40NW. 50 KT... 85NE 65SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...145NE 115SE 105SW 135NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 16.0N 169.4W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 40SE 35SW 40NW. 50 KT... 85NE 65SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...145NE 115SE 105SW 135NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 17.2N 170.7W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 40SE 35SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 65SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 18.2N 171.7W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 65SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 19.7N 173.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 65SE 60SW 65NW. 34 KT...125NE 110SE 100SW 115NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 21.3N 175.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 22.8N 177.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 166.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KODAMA ** WTPA42 PHFO 212055 *** TCDCP2 HURRICANE IOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 1100 AM HST MON AUG 21 2006 HURRICANE IOKE HAS INTENSIFIED FURTHER OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS WITH AN IMPROVED EYE PRESENTATION IN THE SATELLITE IMAGES. SATELLITE AGENCY ESTIMATES RANGED FROM 90 KT TO 102 KT AND THE AODT ESTIMATE CAME IN AT 110 KT. AS A RESULT...HURRICANE IOKE HAS BEEN PUSHED UP TO 100 KT...OR CATEGORY 3 ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE WHICH MAKES IT A MAJOR HURRICANE. IOKE IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 11 KT SOUTHWEST OF A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND SOUTHEAST OF A DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. MOST OF THE OBJECTIVE AIDS...AND ALL OF THE DYNAMIC ONES...KEEP IOKE ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH DAY 5. WITH THE INITIAL LOCATION OF IOKE SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED NORTH SLIGHTLY AND IS CLOSE TO THE CONU FORECAST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS PEAKING AT 115 KT...WHICH IS STRONGER AND SOONER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IOKE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AFTERWARD WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH SHIP AND ICON. ALL INTERESTS IN THE VICINITY OF JOHNSTON ISLAND SHOULD IMMEDIATELY PREPARE FOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/2100Z 13.0N 166.3W 100 KT 12HR VT 22/0600Z 14.3N 167.6W 115 KT 24HR VT 22/1800Z 16.0N 169.4W 115 KT 36HR VT 23/0600Z 17.2N 170.7W 110 KT 48HR VT 23/1800Z 18.2N 171.7W 100 KT 72HR VT 24/1800Z 19.7N 173.5W 90 KT 96HR VT 25/1800Z 21.3N 175.4W 80 KT 120HR VT 26/1800Z 22.8N 177.8W 70 KT $$ FORECASTER KODAMA ** WTPA32 PHFO 212058 *** TCPCP2 BULLETIN HURRICANE IOKE ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 1100 AM HST MON AUG 21 2006 ...MAJOR HURRICANE IOKE EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO JOHNSTON ISLAND WITHIN 24 HOURS... ALL INTERESTS IN THE VICINITY OF JOHNSTON ISLAND SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE ONSET OF HURRICANE CONDITIONS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. ALL INTERESTS IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS HURRICANE. HURRICANE IOKE IS NOT A THREAT TO THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. AT 1100 AM HST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 166.3 WEST OR ABOUT 335 MILES...SOUTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND AND ABOUT 795 MILES... SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...OAHU. IOKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM HST POSITION...13.0 N...166.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM HST. $$ FORECASTER KODAMA/R BALLARD ** WTPA32 PHFO 212058 *** TCPCP2 BULLETIN HURRICANE IOKE ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 1100 AM HST MON AUG 21 2006 ...MAJOR HURRICANE IOKE EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO JOHNSTON ISLAND WITHIN 24 HOURS... ALL INTERESTS IN THE VICINITY OF JOHNSTON ISLAND SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE ONSET OF HURRICANE CONDITIONS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. ALL INTERESTS IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS HURRICANE. HURRICANE IOKE IS NOT A THREAT TO THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. AT 1100 AM HST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 166.3 WEST OR ABOUT 335 MILES...SOUTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND AND ABOUT 795 MILES... SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...OAHU. IOKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM HST POSITION...13.0 N...166.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM HST. $$ FORECASTER KODAMA/R BALLARD ** WTPA32 PHFO 212103 CCA *** TCPCP2 BULLETIN HURRICANE IOKE ADVISORY NUMBER 8...CORRECTED NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 1100 AM HST MON AUG 21 2006 CORRECTED TO ADD HURRICANE WARNING FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND. ...MAJOR HURRICANE IOKE EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO JOHNSTON ISLAND WITHIN 24 HOURS... AT 11 AM HST...2100Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. ALL INTERESTS IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS HURRICANE. HURRICANE IOKE IS NOT A THREAT TO THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. AT 1100 AM HST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 166.3 WEST OR ABOUT 335 MILES...SOUTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND AND ABOUT 795 MILES... SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...OAHU. IOKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM HST POSITION...13.0 N...166.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM HST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM HST. $$ FORECASTER KODAMA/R BALLARD ** WTCA43 TJSJ 212122 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL NUMERO CUATRO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 1 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL042006 500 PM AST LUNES 21 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...DEPRESION TROPICAL SE FORMA EN EL LEJANO ATLANTICO ORIENTAL... A LAS 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...EL GOBIERNO DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE HA EMITIDO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON ANTICIPADAS EN EL AREA CUBIERTO POR EL AVISO DENTRO DE 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL NUMERO CUATRO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 12.5 NORTE... LONGITUD 21.5 OESTE O COMO A 50 MILLAS...405 KM...AL SURESTE DE ISALS DE CABO VERDE SURENAS. LA DEPRESION O SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE CERCA DE 12 MPH, UN GIRO HACIA EL NOROEWSTE CON ALGUN AUMENTO EN SU VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION ES ANTICIPADO POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA...LA DEPRESION ESTARA PASANDO MUY CERCA DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE SURENAS DURANTE MANANA. LOS VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA QUE LA DEPRESION PROBABLEMENTE SE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 1007 MB...29.74 PULGADAS. ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS...CON TOTALES AISLADOS DE HASTA 10 PULGADAS EN AREAS DE TERRENO MAS ELEVADO...SON POSIBLE SOBRE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE ASOCIADOS CON ESTA DEPERSION. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS MORTALES Y DESLIZES DE LODO. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM AST...12.5 NORTE...21.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1007 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SE EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 PM SEGUIDO POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 PM $$ PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DE PRONOSTICOS DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTNT34 KNHC 212359 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 800 PM AST MON AUG 21 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE WEST OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR HAD REFORMED FURTHER SOUTH NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 22.6 WEST OR ABOUT 210 MILES...335 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE DEPRESSION WILL PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. HOWEVER...OUTER RAIN BANDS AND SQUALLS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS BEGINNING TUESDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...12.0 N...22.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER STEWART