** WTSR20 WSSS 210600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPA32 PHFO 211430 *** TCPCP2 BULLETIN HURRICANE IOKE ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 500 AM HST MON AUG 21 2006 ...THE OUTER WINDS FROM STRENGTHENING HURRICANE IOKE WILL LIKELY REACH JOHNSTON ISLAND TONIGHT... AT 500 AM HST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 165.8 WEST OR ABOUT 390 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND...AND ABOUT 810 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII. IOKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES. HURRICANE IOKE IS NOT A THREAT TO THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTS IN THE VICINITY OF JOHNSTON ISLAND SHOULD PREPARE FOR RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AS THE OUTER WINDS FROM THIS HURRICANE REACH THAT ISLAND TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. REPEATING THE 500 AM HST POSITION...12.3 N...165.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM HST. $$ FORECASTER HOUSTON ** WTPA22 PHFO 211430 *** TCMCP2 HURRICANE IOKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 1500 UTC MON AUG 21 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 165.8W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 50SE 45SW 65NW. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 85SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..135NE 115SE 65SW 105NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 165.8W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 165.3W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 13.4N 167.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 75NE 55SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 105SE 95SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 15.0N 169.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 55SW 75NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 16.3N 170.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 65SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...145NE 115SE 105SW 135NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.4N 172.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 65SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...145NE 115SE 105SW 135NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 19.3N 174.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 65NW. 34 KT...130NE 105SE 95SW 125NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 21.3N 175.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 23.0N 177.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 165.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER HOUSTON ** WTPZ24 KNHC 211430 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 1500 UTC MON AUG 21 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 135.4W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 30SW 45NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 75SE 75SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 135.4W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 135.2W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.2N 136.2W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.6N 137.4W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.9N 138.6W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 23.2N 140.4W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 23.5N 144.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N 135.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN ** WTPZ44 KNHC 211430 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 800 AM PDT MON AUG 21 2006 HECTOR IS BARELY HANGING ON THIS MORNING WITH ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT NEAR AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. HOWEVER DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE JUST A LITTLE LOWER... AND TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS FROM ALOFT COULD EASILY BE BROUGHT DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN THE CONVECTION... SO THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN 35 KT. DEGENERATION INTO A REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED IN 12-24 HOURS DUE TO THE STORM CONTINUING TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT OF COLD WATER AND HIGH SHEAR. THE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THAT SOME MODELS HAD FORECAST FOR DAYS FINALLY MATERIALIZED LATE YESTERDAY... PERHAPS DUE TO AN INTERACTION OF HECTOR WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST TO THE WEST OF THE STORM. HOWEVER... NOW ALMOST ALL OF THE BETTER MODELS HAVE SHIFTED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THEIR PREVIOUS FORECASTS... SHOWING A WEAKER SYSTEM THAT MOVES ALMOST IMMEDIATELY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. GIVEN THAT BAM SHALLOW IS STILL NORTH OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE AS WELL AS NORTH OF OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE...AND IS IN BETWEEN THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND BAM SHALLOW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/1500Z 21.8N 135.4W 35 KT 12HR VT 22/0000Z 22.2N 136.2W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 22/1200Z 22.6N 137.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 23/0000Z 22.9N 138.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 23/1200Z 23.2N 140.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 24/1200Z 23.5N 144.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN ** WTPA42 PHFO 211447 *** TCDCP2 HURRICANE IOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 500 AM HST MON AUG 21 2006 ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT HURRICANE IOKE IS CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY. THE LATEST IR IMAGERY FROM THE GOES11 AT 1400 UTC CONTINUES TO SHOW THE EYE IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. THIS EYE IS SURROUNDED BY A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ESTIMATED TO BE AS LOW AS MINUS 79C. AGAIN...THE SATELLITE FIXES FROM ALL AGENCIES WERE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED IN THE LOCATION OF THIS EYE. THE SATELLITE AGENCIES PROVIDED ESTIMATED CI VALUES RANGING FROM 4.0 TO 5.0. AODT YIELDED 5.5 AT PHFO. BASED ON THESE SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE ESTIMATES AND THE IMPROVING APPEARANCE OF IOKE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS INCREASED TO 75 KT. SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT WERE ALSO MADE TO THE INITIAL WIND RADII...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THE INITIAL MOTION OF IOKE IS 295 DEG AT 10 KT. THE PRIMARY DYNAMIC AND GLOBAL TRACK MODELS HAVE A RATHER SMALL SPREAD THROUGH DAY 5. THIS NEW FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. THE CONSENSUS MODEL...CONU...WAS AGAIN FOLLOWED CLOSELY FOR THIS ADVISORY. THIS CONSENSUS ALSO HAPPENS TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE GFSI THROUGH DAY 4. THE GFDI LIES TO THE RIGHT AND THE UKMET LIES TO THE LEFT OF CONU. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE INFLUENCE OF A MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE. THERE IS ALSO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED EAST NORTHEAST OF IOKE ALONG LATITUDE 25N. THE DEEP LAYER STEERING FROM THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN THE PRESENT MOVEMENT OF IOKE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. HOWEVER...A WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SOME SLOWING OF THE HURRICANE BEYOND DAY 3. IN FACT...AT DAY 5 THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING IOKE MAY SLOW TO A CRAWL. THE SHIPS MODEL HAS BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT ON THE FORECAST INTENSITY OF IOKE DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...NO ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST IN THIS PACKAGE AS COMPARED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL LIKELY PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN THE EXPECTED WEAKENING OF IOKE FROM DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. ALL INTERESTS IN THE VICINITY OF JOHNSTON ISLAND SHOULD IMMEDIATELY PREPARE FOR THE ONSET OF THE OUTER WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS SEAS FROM AN INTENSIFYING IOKE. THE FORECAST CLOSEST APPROACH OF THIS HURRICANE TO THAT ISLAND WILL TAKE PLACE IN LESS THAN 30 HOURS. THE PRESENT TRACK WOULD TAKE IOKE SOUTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND...WHICH WOULD PLACE THE ISLAND IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE GALE WIND RADII OF THE HURRICANE. THE FORECAST 50 KT WIND RADII IS ALSO CLOSE TO THIS ISLAND AS IOKE PASSES BY TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/1500Z 12.3N 165.8W 75 KT 12HR VT 22/0000Z 13.4N 167.3W 85 KT 24HR VT 22/1200Z 15.0N 169.2W 95 KT 36HR VT 23/0000Z 16.3N 170.8W 100 KT 48HR VT 23/1200Z 17.4N 172.0W 100 KT 72HR VT 24/1200Z 19.3N 174.1W 90 KT 96HR VT 25/1200Z 21.3N 175.8W 80 KT 120HR VT 26/1200Z 23.0N 177.4W 70 KT $$ FORECASTER HOUSTON ** WTNT80 EGRR 211713 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 21.08.2006 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR ANALYSED POSITION : 21.6N 135.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP092006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 21.08.2006 21.6N 135.2W MODERATE 00UTC 22.08.2006 22.4N 136.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.08.2006 22.4N 138.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.08.2006 22.7N 139.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.08.2006 22.6N 142.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.08.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE IOKE ANALYSED POSITION : 11.8N 165.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP012006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 21.08.2006 11.8N 165.5W MODERATE 00UTC 22.08.2006 13.2N 166.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.08.2006 14.4N 168.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.08.2006 15.6N 170.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.08.2006 16.4N 171.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.08.2006 17.1N 172.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.08.2006 17.8N 174.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.08.2006 18.9N 175.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.08.2006 20.1N 176.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.08.2006 20.5N 177.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.08.2006 21.3N 178.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.08.2006 21.0N 179.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.08.2006 21.1N 179.5E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 10.3N 103.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 21.08.2006 10.9N 104.5W WEAK 00UTC 22.08.2006 13.4N 103.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.08.2006 14.8N 105.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.08.2006 15.7N 106.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.08.2006 17.4N 108.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.08.2006 18.5N 110.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.08.2006 19.3N 111.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.08.2006 20.1N 111.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.08.2006 20.1N 112.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.08.2006 20.5N 112.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.08.2006 20.8N 113.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.08.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 211713 ** WTPZ25 KNHC 211728 *** TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006 1800 UTC MON AUG 21 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 102.8W AT 21/1800Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 102.8W AT 21/1800Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 102.0W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 13.3N 103.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 14.3N 105.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.5N 107.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.0N 109.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 20.0N 113.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 22.0N 116.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 24.0N 120.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 102.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN ** WTPZ45 KNHC 211747 *** TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006 1100 AM PDT MON AUG 21 2006 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO HAS BECOME BETTER-ORGANIZED. CURVED BANDING FEATURES AROUND THE CENTER HAVE BECOME BETTER-DEFINED AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING. A SPECIAL DVORAK CLASSIFICATION AT 1645 UTC FROM TAFB WAS 2.0... 30 KT AND SUPPORTS INITIATING ADVISORIES. STEADY INTENSIFICATION APPEARS LIKELY WITH LITTLE FORECAST SHEAR AND WARM WATERS ABOVE 29C. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH SEEMS MORE REASONABLE THAN THE GFDL WHICH TAKES 4 DAYS TO MAKE THE DEPRESSION A HURRICANE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 305/9. MIDDLE- TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING OVER MEXICO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STRONG FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... FORCING THE DEPRESSION ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD HEADING. THIS GENERAL SCENARIO IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GUIDANCE...THOUGH THEY ARE SOMEWHAT CLUSTERED IN TWO GROUPS. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW MORE RIDGING THAN OTHER MODELS AND ARE FASTER AND MORE TO THE WEST. THE GFDL AND UKMET ARE A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE EAST BUT STILL OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS NO GOOD REASON TO LEAN ON ONE CLUSTER MORE THAN THE OTHER SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/1800Z 12.8N 102.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 22/0000Z 13.3N 103.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 22/1200Z 14.3N 105.6W 45 KT 36HR VT 23/0000Z 15.5N 107.5W 55 KT 48HR VT 23/1200Z 17.0N 109.5W 65 KT 72HR VT 24/1200Z 20.0N 113.5W 75 KT 96HR VT 25/1200Z 22.0N 116.5W 75 KT 120HR VT 26/1200Z 24.0N 120.0W 55 KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN