** WTIN20 DEMS 210620 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 21-08-2006(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTH ANDAMAN SEA, NORTH BAY AND WEST CENTRAL BAY AND PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AND ALSO PARTS OF SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 31.0 DEG. NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ?????????? ** WTPA32 PHFO 210824 *** TCPCP2 BULLETIN HURRICANE IOKE ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 1100 PM HST SUN AUG 20 2006 ...HURRICANE IOKE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY FAR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS... AT 1100 PM HST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 165.0 WEST OR ABOUT 460 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND AND ABOUT 815 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII. IOKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. HURRICANE IOKE IS NOT A THREAT TO THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTS ON JOHNSTON ISLAND SHOULD TAKE PREPARE FOR RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AS THE OUTER WINDS FROM THIS HURRICANE APPROACH THAT ISLAND LATE MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY. REPEATING THE 1100 PM HST POSITION...11.7 N...165.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM HST. $$ FORECASTER HOUSTON ** WTPA22 PHFO 210830 *** TCMCP2 HURRICANE IOKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 0900 UTC MON AUG 21 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 165.0W AT 21/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 65NE 50SE 50SW 65NW. 34 KT.......120NE 95SE 90SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..140NE 120SE 70SW 110NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 165.0W AT 21/0900Z AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 164.5W FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 12.7N 166.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 55SE 55SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 105SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 14.2N 168.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 75NE 65SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...145NE 105SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 15.5N 170.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 65SW 75NW. 34 KT...150NE 125SE 115SW 145NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 16.8N 172.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 65SW 75NW. 34 KT...150NE 125SE 115SW 145NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 18.7N 174.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 65SE 60SW 65NW. 34 KT...135NE 110SE 100SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 21.2N 175.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 23.3N 176.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.7N 165.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z $$ FORECASTER HOUSTON ** WTPA32 PHFO 210840 CCA *** TCPCP2 BULLETIN...CORRECTION HURRICANE IOKE ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 1100 PM HST SUN AUG 20 2006 CORRECTED WORDING IN 7TH PARAGRAPH ...HURRICANE IOKE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY FAR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS... AT 1100 PM HST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 165.0 WEST OR ABOUT 460 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND AND ABOUT 815 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII. IOKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. HURRICANE IOKE IS NOT A THREAT TO THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTS ON JOHNSTON ISLAND SHOULD PREPARE FOR RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AS THE OUTER WINDS FROM THIS HURRICANE APPROACH THAT ISLAND LATE MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY. REPEATING THE 1100 PM HST POSITION...11.7 N...165.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM HST. $$ FORECASTER HOUSTON ** WTPZ44 KNHC 210841 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 200 AM PDT MON AUG 21 2006 CONVECTION THAT HAD EARLIER BEEN CONCENTRATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER HAS BENN SHEARED OFF TOWARD THE SOUTH...MAKING LOCATION AND MOTION SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. THE LOCATION AND STRUCTURE ANALYSIS WAS FURTHER COMPLICATED BY A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER AS INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER-LEVEL SATELLITE WIND RETRIEVALS. WHILE SOME CONVECTION REMAINS TO THE NORTH...THE ENVIRONMENT IS UNFAVORABLE. WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...TROPICAL STORM HECTOR SHOULD CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMAND LOW IN 24 HOURS...AS SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS SLOWER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...NOW 310/6 KT...AND SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWARD. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE, BUT SLOWER AND MORE TO THE LEFT AS HECTOR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES AS A REMNANT LOW. THE 12-FT SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT RADII WERE BASED ON THE LATEST OUTPUT FROM THE WAVEWATCH III MODEL WHICH VERIFIED WELL WITH A SHIP OBSERVATION 300 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF HECTOR. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0900Z 21.2N 135.1W 35 KT 12HR VT 21/1800Z 21.8N 136.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 22/0600Z 22.3N 136.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 22/1800Z 22.6N 137.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 23/0600Z 23.0N 139.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 24/0600Z 23.6N 142.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH/FIORINO ** WTPZ24 KNHC 210841 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 0900 UTC MON AUG 21 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 135.1W AT 21/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 30SW 45NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 100SE 75SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 135.1W AT 21/0900Z AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 134.9W FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.8N 136.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 22.3N 136.9W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.6N 137.9W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 23.0N 139.3W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 23.6N 142.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 135.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH/FIORINO ** WTPA42 PHFO 210920 *** TCDCP2 HURRICANE IOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 1100 PM HST SUN AUG 20 2006 HURRICANE IOKE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY THIS EVENING. THE LATEST IR IMAGERY FROM THE GOES11 AT 0800 UTC...THE LAST IMAGE RECEIVED BEFORE ECLIPSE...SHOWED THE EYE HAS BECOME EVEN MORE PROMINENT THAN WHEN THE 0600 UTC FIXES WERE MADE. SATELLITE FIXES WERE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND THE LOCATION OF THIS EYE. THE SATELLITE AGENCIES PROVIDED ESTIMATED CI VALUES RANGING FROM 3.5 TO 4.5. AODT YIELDED 4.6 AT PHFO. BASED ON THESE SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE ESTIMATES AND THE IMPROVING APPEARANCE OF IOKE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 70 KT. THE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON A WINDSAT PASS WHICH SHOWED GALE FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUT AT LEAST 2 DEGREES OF LATITUDE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ALSO...HAVE INCREASED THE 12 FOOT SEAS. THE INITIAL MOTION OF IOKE IS 300 DEG AT 11 KT. TRACK MODELS CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOME SPREAD. HOWEVER...THE CONSENSUS MODEL... CONU...WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY FOR THIS ADVISORY. THIS CONSENSUS ALSO HAPPENS TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE GFSI. THIS TRACK IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE INFLUENCE OF A MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE. THERE IS ALSO A RIDGE LOCATED EAST-NORTHEAST OF IOKE ALONG LATITUDE 25N. THE DEEP LAYER STEERING FROM THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN THE PRESENT MOVEMENT OF IOKE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. HOWEVER...A WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SOME SLOWING OF THE HURRICANE BEYOND DAY 3. THE SHIPS MODEL WAS USED FOR THE INTENSITY FORECAST. THIS MODEL HAS BEEN DOING QUITE WELL WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH WAS PREVIOUSLY INVEST AREA 91C. THE MODEL CORRECTLY FORECAST INTENSIFICATION TO HURRICANE INTENSITY A FEW DAYS AGO. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS IOKE NEARS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIKELY WEAKEN THE HURRICANE AFTER 72 HOURS. ALL INTERESTS ON AND AROUND JOHNSTON ISLAND SHOULD IMMEDIATELY PREPARE FOR THE ONSET OF THE OUTER WINDS FROM AN INTENSIFYING IOKE. THE FORECAST CLOSEST APPROACH OF THIS HURRICANE TO THAT ISLAND WOULD TAKE PLACE WITHIN ABOUT 36 HOURS OR LESS. THE PRESENT TRACK WOULD TAKE IOKE SOUTHWEST OF THAT ISLAND...WHICH WOULD PLACE THAT ISLAND IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE GALE WIND RADII OF THE HURRICANE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0900Z 11.7N 165.0W 70 KT 12HR VT 21/1800Z 12.7N 166.7W 85 KT 24HR VT 22/0600Z 14.2N 168.9W 95 KT 36HR VT 22/1800Z 15.5N 170.6W 100 KT 48HR VT 23/0600Z 16.8N 172.0W 100 KT 72HR VT 24/0600Z 18.7N 174.2W 90 KT 96HR VT 25/0600Z 21.2N 175.6W 80 KT 120HR VT 26/0600Z 23.3N 176.8W 70 KT $$ FORECASTER HOUSTON