** WTSR20 WSSS 201800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPZ44 KNHC 210242 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 800 PM PDT SUN AUG 20 2006 MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS FROM WEAKENING CONVECTION MADE IT DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER OF HECTOR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OR TWO CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO CLEAR AND IT APPEARS THAT THE CENTER IS MOVING A LITTLE MORE NORTHWESTWARD THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE CENTER IS WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE REMAINING CONVECTION...WHICH IS CONFIRMED BY A LATE ARRIVING AQUA MICROWAVE OVERPASS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 310/8 KT. HECTOR IS EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT GRADUALLY BECOMES A WEAK AND SHALLOW SYSTEM. THE TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO RIGHT IN THE FIRST 36 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL MOTION... BUT TURNS BACK WESTWARD THEREAFTER...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS CLOSE TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE SHALLOW BAM MODEL. CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO WARM AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE DECREASING AS A RESULT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 40 KT. WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE AT A STEADY RATE DUE TO COLD WATER AND STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HECTOR IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE INTENSITY MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0300Z 20.9N 134.6W 40 KT 12HR VT 21/1200Z 21.6N 135.6W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 22/0000Z 22.3N 136.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 22/1200Z 22.8N 138.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 23/0000Z 23.2N 139.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 24/0000Z 23.5N 142.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART ** WTPA42 PHFO 210242 *** TCDCP2 HURRICANE IOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 500 PM HST SUN AUG 20 2006 IOKE WHICH BEGAN AS A DEPRESSION ONLY 24 HOURS AGO HAS INTENSIFIED VERY RAPIDLY INTO A HURRICANE. ALTHO DVORAK CONSTRAINTS LIMITED ITS FT TO A 3.5 THE POPPING OF AN EYE SINCE 22Z PERSUADES US TO ELEVATE ITS INTENSITY TO HURRICANE STATUS. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER PERSISTENTLY WARM WATER OF 28 DEGREES C. ALSO SHEARING ALOFT IS MINIMAL AND THUS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE AS 10 KNOT SHEARING AT 72 HOURS INCREASES TO 21 KNOTS AT 120 HOURS. THE OVERALL NORTHWESTERLY TRACK WHICH HAD BEEN SHIFTED MORE WESTWARD 12 HOURS AGO HAS BEEN NUDGED BACK EASTWARD A BIT TO JOIN THE MAJORITY MODEL CLUSTER. THIS TRACK STILL MAKES A PASS 100 MILES AWAY FROM JOHNSTON ISLAND PLACING THAT ISLAND WITHIN IOKES GALE OR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WIND RADII WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0300Z 11.5N 163.8W 65 KT 12HR VT 21/1200Z 12.2N 165.8W 75 KT 24HR VT 22/0000Z 13.6N 168.2W 80 KT 36HR VT 22/1200Z 15.0N 170.1W 85 KT 48HR VT 23/0000Z 16.5N 171.9W 90 KT 72HR VT 24/0000Z 18.1N 173.4W 90 KT 96HR VT 25/0000Z 19.9N 174.8W 80 KT 120HR VT 26/0000Z 21.4N 175.9W 70 KT $$ FORECASTER MATSUDA ** WTPZ24 KNHC 210243 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 0300 UTC MON AUG 21 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 134.6W AT 21/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 30SW 45NW. 12 FT SEAS..125NE 100SE 75SW 125NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 134.6W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 134.4W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.6N 135.6W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.3N 136.7W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.8N 138.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.2N 139.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 23.5N 142.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 134.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART ** WTPA22 PHFO 210245 *** TCMCP2 HURRICANE IOKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 0300 UTC MON AUG 21 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 163.8W AT 21/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 15SW 55NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 40SE 15SW 55NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 163.8W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 163.2W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 12.2N 165.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 13.6N 168.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 35NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 65NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 15.0N 170.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. 34 KT...115NE 60SE 60SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 16.5N 171.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. 34 KT...135NE 75SE 75SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 18.1N 173.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. 34 KT...155NE 75SE 75SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 19.9N 174.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 21.4N 175.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.5N 163.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z $$ FORECASTER MATSUDA ** WTPA32 PHFO 210245 *** TCPCP2 BULLETIN HURRICANE IOKE ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 500 PM HST SUN AUG 20 2006 IOKE HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED INTO A HURRICANE BUT WILL CONTINUE ON A TRACK SAFELY AWAY FROM THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 PM HST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 163.8 WEST OR ABOUT 780 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...OAHU AND ABOUT 525 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND. IOKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IOKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 PM HST POSITION...11.5 N...163.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM HST. $$ FORECASTER MATSUDA ** WTNT80 EGRR 210516 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 21.08.2006 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR ANALYSED POSITION : 21.1N 134.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP092006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 21.08.2006 21.1N 134.2W MODERATE 12UTC 21.08.2006 21.6N 135.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.08.2006 21.6N 137.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.08.2006 21.8N 139.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.08.2006 22.3N 140.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.08.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE IOKE ANALYSED POSITION : 11.4N 163.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP012006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 21.08.2006 11.4N 163.4W MODERATE 12UTC 21.08.2006 12.1N 165.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.08.2006 13.3N 167.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.08.2006 14.5N 169.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.08.2006 15.6N 171.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.08.2006 16.6N 173.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.08.2006 17.1N 175.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.08.2006 18.2N 175.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.08.2006 19.6N 177.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.08.2006 21.1N 178.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.08.2006 22.3N 178.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.08.2006 23.5N 179.8E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.08.2006 24.0N 179.1E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 10.3N 103.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 21.08.2006 10.3N 103.1W WEAK 12UTC 21.08.2006 10.0N 104.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.08.2006 11.7N 103.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.08.2006 14.6N 103.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.08.2006 16.0N 106.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.08.2006 18.1N 109.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.08.2006 18.9N 110.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.08.2006 19.6N 111.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.08.2006 20.4N 111.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.08.2006 20.5N 111.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.08.2006 21.3N 111.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.08.2006 21.9N 112.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.08.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 210516