** WTSR20 WSSS 200600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPZ44 KNHC 201438 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 800 AM PDT SUN AUG 20 2006 A HELPFUL TRMM MICROWAVE PASS AT 1020 UTC SHOWED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF HECTOR HAS DECOUPLED FROM THE MIDDLE-LEVEL CENTER PREVIOUSLY SEEN ON THE NIGHT-VIS IMAGERY... REQUIRING A SMALL SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE INITIAL POSITION. RECENT SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THAT THE EYE FEATURE HAS DISSIPATED AND CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED EXCLUSIVELY TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM... CONSISTENT WITH THE IMPACTS OF WESTERLY SHEAR. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM SAB/TAFB ARE DROPPING AS QUICKLY AS THE RULES ALLOW AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 60 KT. A FAST WEAKENING IS LIKELY DUE TO INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR... COLD SSTS DROPPING BELOW 24C... AND PLENTY OF STABLE AIR AS DIAGNOSED BY SHIPS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE... CALLING FOR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO DISSIPATE TOMORROW. THE MOTION FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS IS ABOUT 300/9. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ABOUT A DAY UNTIL THE CYCLONE LOSES MOST OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION. THEREAFTER A WEST-NORTHWEST TURN IS ANTICIPATED AS HECTOR BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM STEERED BY THE LOWER-LEVEL FLOW. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE HOLDING ONTO A STRONG VERTICALLY-STACKED SYSTEM FOR TOO LONG... LEADING TO A NORTHWESTWARD OR EVEN NORTHWARD MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL STAY ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE... CLOSE TO A COMPOSITE OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE... BAM SHALLOW... AND THE UKMET. THE WEST-NORTHWEST TURN COULD OCCUR SOONER THAN FORECAST IF THE CYCLONE WEAKENS FASTER THAN SHOWN BELOW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/1500Z 19.8N 133.5W 60 KT 12HR VT 21/0000Z 20.5N 134.7W 45 KT 24HR VT 21/1200Z 21.3N 136.1W 30 KT 36HR VT 22/0000Z 22.0N 137.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 22/1200Z 22.5N 139.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 23/1200Z 23.0N 142.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN ** WTPZ24 KNHC 201438 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 1500 UTC SUN AUG 20 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 133.5W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 60SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..175NE 125SE 100SW 175NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 133.5W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 133.2W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.5N 134.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.3N 136.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.0N 137.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.5N 139.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 23.0N 142.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 133.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN ** WTPA22 PHFO 201448 *** TCMCP2 IOKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 1500 UTC SUN AUG 20 2006 CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 160.9W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 15SW 15NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 40SE 15SW 15NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 160.9W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 160.2W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 11.6N 163.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 15NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 12.8N 166.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 65NE 45SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 14.0N 168.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 55SE 40SW 85NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 15.4N 171.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 25SE 25SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 40SE 40SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.9N 174.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 25SE 25SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 40SE 40SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 20.4N 176.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 22.6N 177.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.9N 160.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER MATSUDA ** WTPA32 PHFO 201449 *** TCPCP2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IOKE ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 500 AM HST SUN AUG 20 2006 TROPICAL STORM IOKE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE IN 48 HOURS BUT WILL CONTINUE ON A TRACK SAFELY AWAY FROM HAWAII. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 AM HST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 160.9 WEST OR ABOUT 745 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...OAHU. IOKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 AM HST POSITION...10.9 N...160.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM HST. $$ FORECASTER MATSUDA ** WTPA42 PHFO 201516 *** TCDCP2 TROPICAL STORM IOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 500 AM HST SUN AUG 20 2006 TROPICAL STORM IOKE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE IN 48 HOURS. ITS NORTHWESTERLY PATH WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE IT OVER WARM 28 DEGREE C WATER THROUGHOUT ITS ENTIRE PROJECTED TRACK. HOWEVER BY DAY 4 IOKE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TRAVELING UNDER OPPOSING NORTH WINDS HIGH ALOFT INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS OF SHEAR BY DAY 5. WE WILL CONTINUE TO ABIDE BY THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST BUT HAVE NUDGED THE PATH WESTWARD TO BE IN GREATER AGREEMENT WITH THE MULTIPLE MODEL ARRAY...THE PREFERRED PATH IS MOST CLOSELY ALIGNED TO CONU CONSENSUS THRU 72 HOURS AND THEN THE GFS MODEL IN THE LATER PERIODS WHICH IS THE MOST EASTERN POSITIONED OF THE BUNCH. THE PATH TAKES IT ABOUT 100 NM SOUTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND IN 48 HOURS PLACING PJON WITHIN IOKES GALE FORCE RADII. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/1500Z 10.9N 160.9W 35 KT 12HR VT 21/0000Z 11.6N 163.2W 40 KT 24HR VT 21/1200Z 12.8N 166.1W 50 KT 36HR VT 22/0000Z 14.0N 168.6W 60 KT 48HR VT 22/1200Z 15.4N 171.0W 65 KT 72HR VT 23/1200Z 17.9N 174.3W 70 KT 96HR VT 24/1200Z 20.4N 176.1W 70 KT 120HR VT 25/1200Z 22.6N 177.2W 65 KT $$ FORECASTER MATSUDA ** WTPA22 PHFO 201520 *** TCMCP2 TROPICAL STORM IOKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 1500 UTC SUN AUG 20 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 160.9W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 15SW 15NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 40SE 15SW 15NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 160.9W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 160.2W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 11.6N 163.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 15NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 12.8N 166.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 65NE 45SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 14.0N 168.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 55SE 40SW 85NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 15.4N 171.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 25SE 25SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 40SE 40SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.9N 174.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 25SE 25SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 40SE 40SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 20.4N 176.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 22.6N 177.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.9N 160.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER MATSUDA ** WTPN32 PHNC 201600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 01C (IOKE) WARNING NR 003 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01C 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 201200Z --- NEAR 10.7N 160.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 000 DEGREES AT 00 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.7N 160.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 11.6N 163.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 12.8N 166.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 14.0N 168.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 15.4N 171.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 17.9N 174.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 20.4N 176.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 22.6N 177.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT --- REMARKS: 201600Z POSITION NEAR 11.0N 161.2W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 10 FEET. AT 082012 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED 650 NM ESE OF JOHNSTON_ISLAND. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202200Z, 210400Z, 211000Z AND 211600Z.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 201600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 09E (HECTOR) WARNING NR 020 DOWNGRADED FROM HURRICANE 09E 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 201200Z --- NEAR 19.5N 133.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.5N 133.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 20.5N 134.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 21.3N 136.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 22.0N 137.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 22.5N 139.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 23.0N 142.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 201600Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 133.7W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 19 FEET. AT 201200Z TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED 1237 NM E OF HILO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202200Z, 210400Z, 211000Z AND 211600Z. ** WTPN32 PHNC 201600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 01C (IOKE) WARNING NR 003 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01C 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 201200Z --- NEAR 10.7N 160.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 000 DEGREES AT 00 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.7N 160.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 11.6N 163.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 12.8N 166.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 14.0N 168.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 15.4N 171.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 17.9N 174.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 20.4N 176.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 22.6N 177.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT --- REMARKS: 201600Z POSITION NEAR 11.0N 161.2W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 10 FEET. AT 082012 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED 650 NM ESE OF JOHNSTON_ISLAND. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202200Z, 210400Z, 211000Z AND 211600Z.REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 09E (HECTOR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTNT80 EGRR 201713 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 20.08.2006 TROPICAL STORM IOKE ANALYSED POSITION : 11.0N 159.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP012006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 20.08.2006 11.0N 159.0W WEAK 00UTC 21.08.2006 12.3N 161.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 21.08.2006 14.0N 164.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.08.2006 15.6N 166.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.08.2006 16.6N 168.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.08.2006 17.7N 169.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.08.2006 18.6N 170.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.08.2006 19.2N 172.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.08.2006 19.2N 173.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.08.2006 19.4N 175.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.08.2006 20.4N 176.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.08.2006 20.8N 177.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.08.2006 20.8N 178.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE HURRICANE HECTOR ANALYSED POSITION : 19.8N 132.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP092006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 20.08.2006 19.8N 132.6W STRONG 00UTC 21.08.2006 20.1N 134.6W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 21.08.2006 21.7N 135.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.08.2006 21.8N 136.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.08.2006 21.9N 137.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.08.2006 22.6N 138.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.08.2006 22.3N 139.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.08.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 14.7N 103.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 22.08.2006 14.7N 103.8W WEAK 12UTC 22.08.2006 15.0N 104.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.08.2006 15.5N 106.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.08.2006 16.8N 108.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.08.2006 18.2N 110.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.08.2006 19.0N 110.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.08.2006 20.1N 111.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.08.2006 20.7N 112.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.08.2006 21.4N 113.3W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 26.08.2006 20.4N 115.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 201713 ** WTPN31 PHNC 201600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 09E (HECTOR) WARNING NR 020 DOWNGRADED FROM HURRICANE 09E 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 201200Z --- NEAR 19.5N 133.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.5N 133.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 20.5N 134.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 21.3N 136.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 22.0N 137.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 22.5N 139.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 23.0N 142.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 201600Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 133.7W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 19 FEET. AT 201200Z TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED 1237 NM E OF HILO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202200Z, 210400Z, 211000Z AND 211600Z.REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 01C (IOKE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 201000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 09E (HECTOR) WARNING NR 019 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 200600Z --- NEAR 19.2N 132.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 132.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 20.2N 133.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 21.0N 135.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 21.7N 136.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 22.0N 137.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 22.5N 140.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 201000Z POSITION NEAR 19.5N 132.7W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 21 FEET. AT 082006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED 1295 NM E OF HILO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201600Z, 202200Z, 210400Z AND 211000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01C (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PHNC 201000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 01C (IOKE) WARNING NR 002 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01C 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 200600Z --- NEAR 10.4N 158.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.4N 158.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 11.0N 160.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 11.7N 163.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 12.8N 166.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 13.9N 168.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 16.7N 171.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 19.3N 173.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 22.4N 173.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT --- REMARKS: 201000Z POSITION NEAR 10.6N 159.2W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 10 FEET. AT 082006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED 592 NM SSW OF HILO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201600Z, 202200Z, 210400Z AND 211000Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 09E (HECTOR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//