** WTIN20 DEMS 200635 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 20-08-2006(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER ANDAMAN SEA, NORTH EAST CENTRAL AND PARTS OF SOUTH EAST BAY OF BENGAL AND ALSO PARTS OF SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 32.5 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ?????????? ** WTPZ44 KNHC 200830 *** TCDEP4 HURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 200 AM PDT SUN AUG 20 2006 AN ILL-DEFINED EYE WAS DETECTABLE ON SATELLITE IMAGES UP THROUGH 0600 UTC BUT IT IS GONE NOW...PERHAPS FOR GOOD. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...HOWEVER BASED ON THE DETERIORATING CLOUD PATTERN THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 70 KT. HECTOR IS NOW OVER SUB-25 DEG C SSTS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ANIMATION SHOWS A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS TROUGH SHOULD IMPART INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR ON HECTOR. GIVEN THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT... SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HECTOR IS LIKELY TO BE REDUCED TO A REMNANT LOW BY 48 HOURS...WITH DISSIPATION NOT LONG THEREAFTER. THE FORWARD SPEED HAS SLOWED TO AROUND 9 KT AS HECTOR NEARS A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS IT IS EXPECTED THAT IT WILL BE STEERED MORE BY THE LOWER-LEVEL FLOW....AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SHOWS A GRADUAL BEND TO THE LEFT. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST...THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...THE U.K. MET. OFFICE...AND THE NCEP GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEAN TRACKS. WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS OVER HECTOR. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0900Z 19.4N 132.6W 75 KT 12HR VT 20/1800Z 20.2N 133.7W 60 KT 24HR VT 21/0600Z 21.0N 135.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 21/1800Z 21.7N 136.2W 35 KT 48HR VT 22/0600Z 22.0N 137.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 23/0600Z 22.5N 140.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTPZ24 KNHC 200830 *** TCMEP4 HURRICANE HECTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 0900 UTC SUN AUG 20 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 132.6W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 60SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..225NE 175SE 125SW 225NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 132.6W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 132.2W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.2N 133.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.0N 135.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.7N 136.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 45SE 0SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 22.0N 137.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 22.5N 140.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 132.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTPA42 PHFO 200853 *** TCDCP2 TROPICAL STORM IOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 1100 PM HST SAT AUG 19 2006 ONE-C CONTINUED TO ORGANIZE DURING THE EVENING AND APPEARS TO HAVE STRENGTHENED ENOUGH TO AQUIRE A NAME. THAT NAME IS IOKE AND IT IS THE FIRST NAMED SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC SINCE HUKO BACK IN LATE 2002. IOKE IS ROUGHLY TRANSLATED INTO ENGLISH AS JOYCE. THE UPGRADE WAS DUE TO DVORAK FIXES FROM CPHC...JTWC AND AIR FORCE GLOBAL ALL WITH A DT OF 2.5. THAT TRANSLATES INTO ROUGHLY 35KT. WE ALSO HAD A WELL TIMED QUIKSCAT PASS RIGHT OVER THE SYSTEM AND IT SHOWED A NUMBER OF 35KT WINDS WITH EVEN A FEW 40KTS THROWN IN FOR GOOD MEASURE. WAS A LITTLE SUPRISING THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE GENERALLY ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE STORM...WOULD EXPECT THE OPPOSITE. STRONGER WINDS ON SOUTH SIDE LIKELY DUE TO A STEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IOKE AND THE ITCZ TO THE SOUTH. THAT SHOULD CHANGE AS IT MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE ITCZ. THE WINDS WERE ALSO IN RAIN FLAGGED AREAS...BUT TYPICALLY WITH WIND SPEEDS IN THE 30-40KT RANGE...THIS MEANS THE ACTUAL WINDS WERE A BIT STRONGER. THE TD ONE-C SYSTEMS WE HAD IN 2003...04 AND 05 ONLY LASTED FOR A DAY AS THEY COULD NOT ESCAPE THE ITCZ AND WERE OVERWHELMED BY ITCZ CONVECTION. IOKE APPEARS TO BE OVERCOMING THE ITCZ AS THERE IS NO SUBSTANTIAL ITCZ CONVECTION WITHIN 10 DEGREES OF IOKE. IOKE ALSO APPEARS TO BE IN A PRIME SPOT FOR DEVELOPMENT. SHEAR ALOFT IS LESS THAN 10KT AND SSTS ARE OVER 28C. LAST HOUR OR TWO LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTER. IF THIS CAN DEVELOP MORE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING WE COULD SEE A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING STORM...EVEN MORE SO THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. IOKE IS EMBEDDED IN A DEEP LAYER FLOW THAT SHOULD MOVE THE STORM OFF TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST THRU 48 HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALSO TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ALONG SUCH A TRACK. SO HAVE MADE NO CHANGES IN THE FORECAST THRU THAT POINT. AFTER THAT TIME THERE IS MORE GUIDANCE SPREAD AS GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING A SUBSTANTIAL UPPER TROUGH TO DEVELOP NEAR 35N 175E AND START TO LIFT THE STORM IN A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION...HOWEVER THE STEERING FLOW WILL WEAKEN DOWN AROUND 20N WHERE IOKE SHOULD BE. 06Z GUIDANCE SHIFTS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OR WEST AND SLOWER THAN 00Z APPARENTLY DUE TO SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN HOW THAT UPPER TROUGH WILL EXACTLY FORM. IN THE 48 TO 120 HOUR RANGE...WE HAVE SLOWED THE SYSTEM SOME ALONG THE LINES OF GUIDANCE. BIGGER QUESTIONS WITH INTENSITY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...IOKE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP QUITE RAPIDLY AND STRONGER THAN WE CURRENTLY HAVE. MOST GUIDANCE BRINGS IOKE TO 65 TO 75KT HURRICANE BY 48 HOURS AND THEN STEADIES IT OFF AND EVEN SLOWLY DECREASES INTENSITY BY 120 HOURS. GFDL IS OUTLIER AND BRINGS IOKE TO 95KT AT 96HR TIME FRAME. WENT A LITTLE HIGHER ON INTENSITY THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. CANT QUITE UNDERSTAND WHY MOST GUIDANCE WANTS TO START WEAKENING THE STORM AFTER 96 HRS GIVEN THAT STILL SHOULD BE IN AREA WITH PRETTY WARM SSTS AND LOW SHEAR. HOWEVER DONT WANT TO DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE ALWAYS THE HARDEST PART. ONE IMPORTANT ITEM TO NOTE...BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST...IOKE WILL PASS BY ABOUT 75 MILES TO THE SOUTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND MID DAY ON THE 22ND. THIS WOULD PUT THE ISLAND AND THE NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE THERE INTO THE 50KT PLUS WINDS THREAT. JOHNSTON IS ALSO SUCCEPTIBLE TO HIGH SURF FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST AND IOKE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING THAT AS WELL. INTERESTS IN AND AROUND JOHNSTON SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO LATER FORECASTS FROM CPHC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0900Z 10.6N 159.0W 35 KT 12HR VT 20/1800Z 11.0N 160.7W 40 KT 24HR VT 21/0600Z 11.7N 163.3W 50 KT 36HR VT 21/1800Z 12.8N 166.1W 60 KT 48HR VT 22/0600Z 13.9N 168.1W 65 KT 72HR VT 23/0600Z 16.7N 171.3W 70 KT 96HR VT 24/0600Z 19.3N 173.0W 70 KT 120HR VT 25/0600Z 22.4N 173.6W 65 KT $$ FORECASTER NASH ** WTPA22 PHFO 200853 *** TCMCP2 TROPICAL STORM IOKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 0900 UTC SUN AUG 20 2006 TROPICAL STORM IOKE HAS FORMED WELL SOUTH OF HAWAII BUT WILL NOT IMPACT THE STATE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 159.0W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 15SW 15NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 40SE 15SW 15NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 159.0W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 158.5W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 11.0N 160.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 11.7N 163.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 65NE 45SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 12.8N 166.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 55SE 40SW 85NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 13.9N 168.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 40SE 40SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 16.7N 171.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 25SE 25SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 40SE 40SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 19.3N 173.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 22.4N 173.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.6N 159.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z $$ FORECASTER NASH ** WTPA32 PHFO 200853 *** TCPCP2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IOKE ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 1100 PM HST SAT AUG 19 2006 TROPICAL STORM IOKE HAS FORMED WELL SOUTH OF HAWAII BUT WILL NOT IMPACT THE STATE. AT 1100 PM HST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 159.0 WEST OR ABOUT 745 MILES SOUTH OF HONOLULU. IOKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM HST POSITION...10.6 N...159.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM HST. $$ FORECASTER NASH