** WTSR20 WSSS 191800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 200000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0610 WUKONG (0610) ANALYSIS PSTN 200000UTC 38.2N 129.8E FAIR MOVE N 10KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 120NM NORTH 75NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 210000UTC 41.2N 132.0E 100NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTJP21 RJTD 200000 *** WARNING 200000. WARNING VALID 210000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0610 WUKONG (0610) 1000 HPA AT 38.2N 129.8E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 75 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 201200UTC AT 39.8N 130.1E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1002 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. FORECAST POSITION FOR 210000UTC AT 41.2N 132.0E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1002 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 200000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.15 FOR TS 0610 WUKONG (0610) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 200000 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE NORTH FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NORTHEAST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL BE GRADED DOWN TO TD WITHIN 6 HOURS. TS WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE NEAR CYCLONE CENTER HAS BECOME WARMER FI-NUMBER WILL BE 1.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPZ44 KNHC 200235 *** TCDEP4 HURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 800 PM PDT SAT AUG 19 2006 HECTOR'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE AND THE EYE IS NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE IN CONVECTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. IN FACT...THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING ASYMMETRIC DUE TO NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AS NOTED BY THE UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE SLOWLY DECREASED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 70 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING SINCE THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS AND INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WEAKENS HECTOR TO A REMNANT LOW IN 48 HOURS AND DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 300/11 KT. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED. HECTOR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD HEADING FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN WESTWARD AS IT BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM. THE TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE...WHICH HAS HAD A GOOD TRACK RECORD WITH THIS STORM. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0300Z 19.0N 132.1W 70 KT 12HR VT 20/1200Z 19.7N 133.3W 60 KT 24HR VT 21/0000Z 20.5N 134.6W 45 KT 36HR VT 21/1200Z 21.2N 135.9W 35 KT 48HR VT 22/0000Z 21.7N 137.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 23/0000Z 22.2N 140.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN ** WTPZ24 KNHC 200236 *** TCMEP4 HURRICANE HECTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 0300 UTC SUN AUG 20 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 132.1W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 75NE 60SE 35SW 45NW. 34 KT.......120NE 115SE 45SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..225NE 175SE 125SW 225NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 132.1W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 131.6W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.7N 133.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.5N 134.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.2N 135.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 45SE 0SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.7N 137.2W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.2N 140.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 132.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA ** WTPA22 PHFO 200248 *** TCMCP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 0300 UTC SUN AUG 20 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 158.2W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 158.2W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 157.7W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 10.5N 159.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 11.2N 162.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 11.9N 164.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 13.3N 167.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 40SE 40SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 16.4N 171.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 25SE 25SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 40SE 40SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 19.4N 173.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 22.6N 173.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.1N 158.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER MATSUDA ** WTPA32 PHFO 200251 *** TCPCP2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 500 PM HST SAT AUG 19 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED FAR SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO EFFECT THE STATE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 PM HST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 158.2 WEST OR ABOUT 775 MILES...SOUTH OF HONOLULU...OAHU. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 PM HST POSITION...10.1 N...158.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM HST. $$ FORECASTER MATSUDA ** WTPA42 PHFO 200252 *** TCDCP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 500 PM HST SAT AUG 19 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C HAS FORMED NEAR 10N 158W AFTER BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS SURROUNDING THE DEPRESSION LOOK FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...WARM SSTS NEAR 28 DEGREES C AND NONSHEARING UNTIL THE FIFTH DAY WHEN APPROACHING THE HIGH LEVEL WESTERLIES OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW FAR NORTHWEST OF HAWAII. PRIOR TO THE SHEARING ONE-CS PATH SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS IT APPROACHES THE LOW. SSTS WILL REMAIN WARM ALL ALONG ITS PROJECTED PATH. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0300Z 10.1N 158.2W 25 KT 12HR VT 20/1200Z 10.5N 159.7W 30 KT 24HR VT 21/0000Z 11.2N 162.1W 35 KT 36HR VT 21/1200Z 11.9N 164.9W 45 KT 48HR VT 22/0000Z 13.3N 167.8W 50 KT 72HR VT 23/0000Z 16.4N 171.4W 65 KT 96HR VT 24/0000Z 19.4N 173.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 25/0000Z 22.6N 173.5W 60 KT $$ FORECASTER MATSUDA ** WTPQ20 RJTD 200300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 0610 WUKONG (0610) ANALYSIS PSTN 200300UTC 39N 130E MOVE N 10KT PRES 1002HPA = ** WTNT80 EGRR 200500 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 20.08.2006 HURRICANE HECTOR ANALYSED POSITION : 18.9N 131.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP092006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 20.08.2006 18.9N 131.2W STRONG 12UTC 20.08.2006 20.0N 133.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.08.2006 20.1N 134.6W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 21.08.2006 20.6N 135.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.08.2006 21.6N 136.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.08.2006 21.9N 137.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.08.2006 22.2N 138.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.08.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C ANALYSED POSITION : 10.3N 158.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP012006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 20.08.2006 10.3N 158.4W WEAK 12UTC 20.08.2006 10.7N 160.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.08.2006 11.4N 162.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.08.2006 12.3N 165.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.08.2006 13.7N 167.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.08.2006 14.9N 169.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.08.2006 15.9N 172.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.08.2006 16.3N 173.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.08.2006 17.1N 175.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.08.2006 17.9N 177.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.08.2006 19.3N 179.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.08.2006 20.2N 179.5E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.08.2006 22.3N 177.1E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 200500