** WTPQ20 RJTD 191800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0610 WUKONG (0610) ANALYSIS PSTN 191800UTC 37.2N 129.8E FAIR MOVE N 10KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 120NM NORTH 75NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 201800UTC 40.4N 130.7E 100NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTJP21 RJTD 191800 *** WARNING 191800. WARNING VALID 201800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0610 WUKONG (0610) 998 HPA AT 37.2N 129.8E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 75 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 200600UTC AT 38.9N 129.4E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1000 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. FORECAST POSITION FOR 201800UTC AT 40.4N 130.7E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1002 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPN21 PHNC 191900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 191851Z AUG 06// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.0N 156.0W TO 11.6N 163.2W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM- AGERY AT 191730Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 157.4W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 156.4W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 157.4W, APPROXIMATELY 810 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ATOLL. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED OVERALL ORGANIZATION WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE BANDS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE DISTURBANCE. A 191211Z AMSR-E PASS DEPICTED A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONSOLIDATING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS, WITH GOOD OUTFLOW AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 201900Z.// ** WTPZ24 KNHC 192026 *** TCMEP4 HURRICANE HECTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 2100 UTC SAT AUG 19 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 131.0W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 60SE 35SW 45NW. 34 KT.......120NE 115SE 45SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 175SE 125SW 225NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 131.0W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 130.6W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 19.0N 132.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 65NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.8N 133.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.5N 135.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 45SE 0SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.0N 136.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 21.5N 139.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 22.0N 143.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 131.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB ** WTPZ44 KNHC 192026 *** TCDEP4 HURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 200 PM PDT SAT AUG 19 2006 HECTOR'S OVERALL CONVECTION LOOKS A LITTLE MORE DISORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH VISIBLE IMAGES RECENTLY SHOW A FAINT EYE BREAKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. AN SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS AT 1515 UTC SHOWED A SMALL DISPLACEMENT OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE-LEVEL CENTERS OF THE CYCLONE...CONFIRMING A SUSPICION FROM THIS MORNING. THIS STRUCTURE IS PROBABLY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AS SEEN IN CIMSS ANALYSES...AND DRY STABLE AIR WHICH HAS INVADED THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE STORM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 75 KT...IN BETWEEN THE T AND CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB...WHICH IS OUR USUAL OPERATIONAL PRACTICE FOR WEAKENING EASTERN PACIFIC CYCLONES OVER COOLER WATERS. A STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY FOLLOWED BY A QUICKER DEMISE TOMORROW AFTER HECTOR ENCOUNTERS SSTS LESS THAN 24C AND WESTERLY WIND SHEAR GREATER THAN 25 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND SHIPS. QUIKSCAT AND SSMIS MICROWAVE PASSES FROM AROUND 1500 UTC WERE VERY HELPFUL IN ESTABLISHING AN INITIAL MOTION...295/11. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE LOOKS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH MOST MODELS CONTINUING ON A TRACK AROUND 300 DEGREES FOR A DAY OR TWO. THE UKMET CONTINUES TO BE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE UNAFFECTED BY A WEAK BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHILE THE NOGAPS BARRELS THE HURRICANE IN A NORTHWESTWARD FASHION. WITH A WEAKENING CYCLONE...TRENDING SOUTH STILL SEEMS TO BE A GOOD IDEA AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. WIND RADII HAVE BEEN MODIFIED ON THE BASIS OF A 1421 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS AND THIS GENERAL WIND STRUCTURE IS CARRIED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF HECTOR'S LIFE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/2100Z 18.3N 131.0W 75 KT 12HR VT 20/0600Z 19.0N 132.4W 65 KT 24HR VT 20/1800Z 19.8N 133.9W 50 KT 36HR VT 21/0600Z 20.5N 135.1W 35 KT 48HR VT 21/1800Z 21.0N 136.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 22/1800Z 21.5N 139.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 23/1800Z 22.0N 143.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB ** WTPN31 PHNC 192200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 09E (HECTOR) WARNING NR 017 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 191800Z --- NEAR 18.1N 130.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.1N 130.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 19.0N 132.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 19.8N 133.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 20.5N 135.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 21.0N 136.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 21.5N 139.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 22.0N 143.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 192200Z POSITION NEAR 18.4N 131.2W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 22 FEET. AT 191800Z HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED 1757 NM W OF ACAPULCO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200400Z, 201000Z, 201600Z AND 202200Z.// ** WTPQ20 RJTD 192100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0610 WUKONG (0610) ANALYSIS PSTN 192100UTC 37.8N 129.8E FAIR MOVE N 10KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 120NM NORTH 75NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 202100UTC 41.0N 131.1E 100NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =