** WTPQ20 BABJ 190600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS WUKONG 0610 (0610) INITIAL TIME 190600 UTC 00HR 35.3N 130.0E 990HPA 18M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR NNW 15KM/H P+24HR 39.0N 127.5E 995HPA 15M/S= ** WTIN20 DEMS 190635 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 19-08-2006(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER ANDAMAN SEA, NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AND PARTS OF SOUTH EAST ARANIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 31 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ?????????? ** WTJP21 RJTD 190600 *** WARNING 190600. WARNING VALID 200600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0610 WUKONG (0610) 994 HPA AT 35.2N 130.1E SEA AROUND TUSHIMA MOVING NORTH 08 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 191800UTC AT 37.1N 128.7E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 200600UTC AT 39.1N 127.9E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 210600UTC AT 42.1N 131.4E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 998 HPA. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 190600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0610 WUKONG (0610) ANALYSIS PSTN 190600UTC 35.2N 130.1E FAIR MOVE N 08KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 160NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 200600UTC 39.1N 127.9E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 10KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT 48HF 210600UTC 42.1N 131.4E 150NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 190600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.14 FOR TS 0610 WUKONG (0610) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 190600 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 190600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 22 NAME TS 0610 WUKONG ANALYSIS POSITION 190600UTC 35.2N 130.0E MOVEMENT NNW 8KT PRES/VMAX 994HPA 33KT FORECAST 03HR POSITION 190900UTC 35.5N 129.9E WITHIN 0NM PRES 995HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPZ24 KNHC 190832 *** TCMEP4 HURRICANE HECTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 0900 UTC SAT AUG 19 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 129.1W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......125NE 125SE 75SW 125NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 175SE 125SW 225NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 129.1W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 128.6W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 18.0N 130.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.9N 132.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.6N 133.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.3N 135.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.0N 137.5W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 21.5N 140.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 129.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTPZ44 KNHC 190833 *** TCDEP4 HURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 200 AM PDT SAT AUG 19 2006 THE EYE OF HECTOR HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT RAGGED IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THIS WAS ACCOMPANIED BY COOLING OF THE CLOUD TOPS...WITH TOPS TO -80C SEEN EAST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 90 KT FROM TAFB... AND REMAIN 102 KT AND 90 KT FROM AFWA AND SAB RESPECTIVELY. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS NUDGED UPWARD TO 90 KT. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD IN ALL DIRECTIONS. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 290/11. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING FROM THE LAST PACKAGE. HECTOR SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TOWARD A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS N OF 20N BETWEEN 125-145W DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HR. THE TRACK GUIDANCE DIVERGES SOMEWHAT AFTER THAT TIME. THE GFDN AND LBAR CALL FOR HECTOR TO TURN NORTHWARD AFTER THAT TIME...WHICH IS POSSIBLE IF THE STORM REMAINS STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT HECTOR WILL HAVE WEAKENED ENOUGH BY 72 HR FOR LOW-LEVEL STEERING TO BECOME PREDOMINANT...WITH THE CYCLONE TURNING WESTWARD AS SHOWN BY THE NOGAPS AND THE GFDL. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK GOES WITH THIS SCENARIO AND IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. HECTOR SHOULD CROSS THE 26C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ISOTHERM WITHIN 12 HR...AND MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER THEREAFTER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 48 HR. AFTER THAT TIME...INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE FASTER WEAKENING...WITH THE CYCLONE FORECAST TO BECOME A DEPRESSION BY 72 HR AND A REMNANT LOW BY 96 HR. NONE OF THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST HECTOR TO HAVE A CLOSED CIRCULATION BY 120 HR...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR DISSIPATION BY THAT TIME. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0900Z 17.4N 129.1W 90 KT 12HR VT 19/1800Z 18.0N 130.7W 80 KT 24HR VT 20/0600Z 18.9N 132.5W 70 KT 36HR VT 20/1800Z 19.6N 133.9W 55 KT 48HR VT 21/0600Z 20.3N 135.1W 45 KT 72HR VT 22/0600Z 21.0N 137.5W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 23/0600Z 21.5N 140.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTPQ20 BABJ 190900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS WUKONG 0610 (0610) INITIAL TIME 190900 UTC 00HR 35.6N 129.8E 992HPA 18M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR NNW 15KM/H P+24HR 39.4N 127.8E 996HPA 15M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 190900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0610 WUKONG (0610) ANALYSIS PSTN 190900UTC 35.6N 130.0E FAIR MOVE N 09KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 160NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 200900UTC 39.4N 128.6E 90NM 70% MOVE N 10KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT 45HF 210600UTC 42.1N 131.4E 150NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =