** WTSR20 WSSS 181800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 190000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS WUKONG 0610 (0610) INITIAL TIME 190000 UTC 00HR 34.2N 130.5E 990HPA 18M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR NNW 15KM/H P+24HR 37.9N 128.8E 995HPA 15M/S P+48HR 41.0N 128.7E 998HPA 15M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 190000 *** WARNING 190000. WARNING VALID 200000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0610 WUKONG (0610) 992 HPA AT 34.4N 130.2E SEA AROUND TUSHIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 140 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 36.0N 129.1E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 200000UTC AT 38.0N 127.7E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 210000UTC AT 42.4N 129.7E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 998 HPA. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 190000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0610 WUKONG (0610) ANALYSIS PSTN 190000UTC 34.4N 130.2E FAIR MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 160NM NORTHEAST 140NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 200000UTC 38.0N 127.7E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 11KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 035KT 48HF 210000UTC 42.4N 129.7E 150NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTKO20 RKSL 190000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 20 NAME TS 0610 WUKONG ANALYSIS POSITION 190000UTC 34.4N 130.2E MOVEMENT NNW 6KT PRES/VMAX 992HPA 37KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 200000UTC 37.0N 128.8E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 995HPA 33KT 48HR POSITION 210000UTC 39.9N 128.4E WITHIN 0NM PRES 1000HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 190000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.13 FOR TS 0610 WUKONG (0610) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 190000 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS. TS WILL BE TRANSFORMED TO EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 48 HOURS.= ** WTJP21 RJTD 190000 *** WARNING 190000. WARNING VALID 200000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0610 WUKONG (0610) 992 HPA AT 34.4N 130.2E SEA AROUND TUSHIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 140 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 36.0N 129.1E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 200000UTC AT 38.0N 127.7E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 210000UTC AT 42.4N 129.7E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 998 HPA. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 190000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0610 WUKONG (0610) ANALYSIS PSTN 190000UTC 34.4N 130.2E FAIR MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 160NM NORTHEAST 140NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 200000UTC 38.0N 127.7E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 11KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 035KT 48HF 210000UTC 42.4N 129.7E 150NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPN31 PGTW 190300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (WUKONG) WARNING NR 027 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 190000Z --- NEAR 34.2N 130.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 34.2N 130.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 35.6N 129.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 37.0N 128.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 190300Z POSITION NEAR 34.5N 130.1E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 11W (WUKONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM SOUTHEAST OF PUSAN, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN 182347Z SSMIS PASS DEPICTED TOTAL LOSS OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SYSTEM. JAPAN RADAR SHOWED WEAK BANDS OF SHOWERS WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. SYNOPTIC REPORTS INDICATE 15-KNOT SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TD 11W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN FURTHER DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR AND INTERACTION WITH LAND AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD, AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AFTER THE 12-HOUR POINT. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 10 FEET.// ** WTPZ44 KNHC 190239 *** TCDEP4 HURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 800 PM PDT FRI AUG 18 2006 HECTOR HAS GONE THROUGH A CYCLE OF WARMING THEN RE-COOLING CLOUD TOPS AROUND THE EYE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE EYEWALL HAS BEEN OPEN ON THE WEST SIDE. THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS REMAINED THE SAME SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY WITH NEARLY UNCHANGED DATA T-NUMBERS OF 4.5 FROM TAFB AND 5.0 FROM SAB AND AFWA...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE MAINTAINED AT 85 KT. HECTOR ONLY HAS ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS LEFT OVER SUFFICIENTLY WARM WATER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STEADY WEAKENING AFTER CROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM...BARELY HANGING ON AS A HURRICANE IN 24 HOURS THEN WEAKENING TO A DEPRESSION BY 72 HOURS. THIS RATE OF WEAKENING FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND IS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS...WHICH KEEP THE CYCLONE TOO STRONG GIVEN THE ADVERSE EFFECTS OF PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE RATE OF WEAKENING OBSERVED DURING HURRICANES BUD AND CARLOTTA EARLIER THIS SEASON WHEN THEY MOVED OVER COOLER WATERS IN THE SAME VICINITY. THE HURRICANE CONTINUES ON A MORE OR LESS STRAIGHT TRACK WITH A MOTION OF 290/11. THIS TRAJECTORY WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS AS HECTOR MOVES TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BETWEEN 125W AND 145W. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CLUSTERED WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME. THEREAFTER...THE MODELS DIVERGE A BIT PRIMARILY DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE FORECAST STRENGTH OF THE CYCLONE. WITH THE RATE OF WEAKENING NOTED ABOVE...IT IS ASSUMED THAT HECTOR WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SHALLOW AND STEERED WESTWARD BY THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0300Z 17.0N 128.0W 85 KT 12HR VT 19/1200Z 17.6N 129.6W 80 KT 24HR VT 20/0000Z 18.4N 131.4W 65 KT 36HR VT 20/1200Z 19.3N 132.9W 50 KT 48HR VT 21/0000Z 20.0N 134.2W 40 KT 72HR VT 22/0000Z 21.0N 136.5W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 23/0000Z 21.5N 139.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 24/0000Z 22.0N 142.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER BERG/AVILA ** WTPZ24 KNHC 190240 *** TCMEP4 HURRICANE HECTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 0300 UTC SAT AUG 19 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 128.0W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......125NE 125SE 75SW 125NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 175SE 125SW 225NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 128.0W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 127.5W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.6N 129.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.4N 131.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.3N 132.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.0N 134.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.0N 136.5W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 21.5N 139.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 22.0N 142.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 128.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG/AVILA ** WTPQ20 BABJ 190300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS WUKONG 0610 (0610) INITIAL TIME 190300 UTC 00HR 34.8N 130.2E 990HPA 18M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR NNW 15KM/H P+24HR 38.3N 127.9E 995HPA 15M/S P+48HR 42.4N 129.9E 998HPA 15M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 190300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0610 WUKONG (0610) ANALYSIS PSTN 190300UTC 34.7N 130.2E FAIR MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 160NM NORTHEAST 140NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 200300UTC 38.4N 127.5E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 11KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 035KT 45HF 210000UTC 42.4N 129.7E 150NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTKO20 RKSL 190300 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 21 NAME TS 0610 WUKONG ANALYSIS POSITION 190300UTC 34.7N 130.2E MOVEMENT NNW 8KT PRES/VMAX 992HPA 37KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 200300UTC 37.3N 128.7E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 995HPA 33KT 48HR POSITION 210300UTC 39.9N 128.6E WITHIN 0NM PRES 1000HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTNT80 EGRR 190547 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 19.08.2006 HURRICANE HECTOR ANALYSED POSITION : 16.7N 127.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP092006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 19.08.2006 16.7N 127.0W STRONG 12UTC 19.08.2006 17.5N 129.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLOWLY 00UTC 20.08.2006 18.2N 132.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.08.2006 18.0N 133.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.08.2006 18.7N 134.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.08.2006 19.7N 135.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.08.2006 19.3N 137.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.08.2006 17.5N 139.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.08.2006 17.5N 140.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.08.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 190547