** WTPQ20 RJTD 181800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0610 WUKONG (0610) ANALYSIS PSTN 181800UTC 33.6N 130.6E FAIR MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 160NM NORTHEAST 140NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 191800UTC 37.2N 128.6E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 10KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT 48HF 201800UTC 40.2N 127.7E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT 72HF 211800UTC 44.5N 136.9E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP21 RJTD 181800 *** WARNING 181800. WARNING VALID 191800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0610 WUKONG (0610) 990 HPA AT 33.6N 130.6E KYUSYU MOVING NORTH SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 140 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 35.3N 129.7E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 191800UTC AT 37.2N 128.6E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 201800UTC AT 40.2N 127.7E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 211800UTC AT 44.5N 136.9E WITH 290 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1000 HPA. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 181800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS WUKONG 0610 (0610) INITIAL TIME 181800 UTC 00HR 33.6N 130.5E 990HPA 18M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR NNW 15KM/H P+24HR 36.8N 129.2E 995HPA 15M/S P+48HR 39.8N 128.4E 998HPA 15M/S= ** WTKO20 RKSL 181800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 18 NAME TS 0610 WUKONG ANALYSIS POSITION 181800UTC 33.6N 130.6E MOVEMENT N 3KT PRES/VMAX 990HPA 37KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 191800UTC 36.3N 129.0E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 995HPA 33KT 48HR POSITION 201800UTC 39.5N 128.3E WITHIN 0NM PRES 1000HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPN31 PGTW 182100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (WUKONG) WARNING NR 026 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 181800Z --- NEAR 33.4N 130.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND REPEAT POSIT: 33.4N 130.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 34.6N 129.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 35.6N 128.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 182100Z POSITION NEAR 33.7N 130.1E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 11W (WUKONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 34 NM NORTHEAST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z, 190900Z AND 191500Z.// ** WTPZ44 KNHC 182032 *** TCDEP4 HURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 200 PM PDT FRI AUG 18 2006 AN EYE HAS PERIODICALLY BEEN OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON IN BOTH THE VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY...SUGGESTING THAT THE HURRICANE HAS MAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY VALUES OF 5.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB. INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 85 KT. A 1446Z QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGESTS THAT THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT ABOUT 125 NM AT MOST IN THE NW QUADRANT AND TO 75 NM AT MOST IN THE SW QUADRANT...WHICH IS SMALLER THAN OUR PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. CURRENT MOTION OF HECTOR CONTINUES AT A HEADING OF 290 DEGREES AT ABOUT 12 KT. THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS WITH TIME...IT SHOULD MOVE WITH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW THAT WILL TURN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE A BIT MORE TO THE WEST AFTER ABOUT THREE DAYS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS JUST SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST AS THE MORE NORTHERN SOLUTIONS OF THE NOGAPS AND GFDL MODELS APPEAR TO HOLD ON TO TOO STRONG AND TOO LARGE A VORTEX FOR TOO LONG. HECTOR IS GOING TO MOVE OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER SSTS AND STABLE AIR WHICH SHOULD BEGIN MORE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IN ABOUT A DAY. HOWEVER... THE VERTICAL SHEAR APPEARS TO BE ANALYZED IN THE SHIPS MODEL TOO HIGH DUE TO ADJACENT STRONG SHEAR ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THE CIMSS VERTICAL SHEAR ANALYSIS FROM 18Z SUGGESTS VERTICAL SHEAR CLOSER TO 5 TO 10 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS GENERALLY BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE AND ABOVE THE FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH THREE DAYS. DISSIPATION IS DELAYED IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THE MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS AND LOWER SHEAR. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/2100Z 16.7N 126.9W 85 KT 12HR VT 19/0600Z 17.3N 128.6W 80 KT 24HR VT 19/1800Z 18.0N 130.5W 70 KT 36HR VT 20/0600Z 18.7N 131.9W 60 KT 48HR VT 20/1800Z 19.5N 133.0W 50 KT 72HR VT 21/1800Z 20.5N 135.0W 40 KT 96HR VT 22/1800Z 21.0N 138.0W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 23/1800Z 21.5N 141.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER KNABB/LANDSEA ** WTPZ24 KNHC 182033 *** TCMEP4 HURRICANE HECTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 2100 UTC FRI AUG 18 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 126.9W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......125NE 125SE 75SW 125NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 175SE 175SW 225NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 126.9W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 126.4W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 17.3N 128.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 18.0N 130.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.7N 131.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.5N 133.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 20.5N 135.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 21.0N 138.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 21.5N 141.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 126.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KNABB/LANDSEA ** WTPN31 PHNC 182200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 09E (HECTOR) WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 181800Z --- NEAR 16.4N 126.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 126.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 17.3N 128.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 18.0N 130.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 18.7N 131.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 19.5N 133.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 20.5N 135.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 21.0N 138.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 21.5N 141.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 182200Z POSITION NEAR 16.7N 127.1W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 27 FEET. AT 181800Z HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED 1523 NM W OF ACAPULCO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190400Z, 191000Z, 191600Z AND 192200Z. // ** WTPQ20 RJTD 182100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0610 WUKONG (0610) ANALYSIS PSTN 182100UTC 34.0N 130.5E FAIR MOVE N 07KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 160NM NORTHEAST 140NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 192100UTC 37.3N 128.5E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 10KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT 45HF 201800UTC 40.2N 127.7E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT 69HF 211800UTC 44.5N 136.9E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 182100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS WUKONG 0610 (0610) INITIAL TIME 182100 UTC 00HR 34.0N 130.4E 990HPA 18M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR NNW 15KM/H P+24HR 37.4N 128.9E 995HPA 15M/S P+48HR 40.6N 128.4E 998HPA 15M/S= ** WTKO20 RKSL 182100 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 19 NAME TS 0610 WUKONG ANALYSIS POSITION 182100UTC 34.0N 130.5E MOVEMENT N 3KT PRES/VMAX 990HPA 37KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 192100UTC 36.6N 129.0E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 995HPA 33KT 48HR POSITION 202100UTC 39.7N 128.5E WITHIN 0NM PRES 1000HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.