** WTSR20 WSSS 180600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 181200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0610 WUKONG (0610) ANALYSIS PSTN 181200UTC 33.2N 130.6E FAIR MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 986HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 191200UTC 36.4N 129.2E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 09KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT 48HF 201200UTC 39.2N 127.8E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT 72HF 211200UTC 42.2N 132.2E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP21 RJTD 181200 *** WARNING 181200. WARNING VALID 191200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0610 WUKONG (0610) 986 HPA AT 33.2N 130.6E KYUSYU MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 190000UTC AT 34.7N 130.1E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 36.4N 129.2E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 201200UTC AT 39.2N 127.8E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 211200UTC AT 42.2N 132.2E WITH 290 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1000 HPA. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 181200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS WUKONG 0610 (0610) INITIAL TIME 181200 UTC 00HR 33.2N 130.4E 985HPA 23M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR NNW 10KM/H P+24HR 36.2N 129.3E 990HPA 18M/S P+48HR 39.0N 128.2E 995HPA 15M/S= ** WTKO20 RKSL 181200 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 16 NAME TS 0610 WUKONG ANALYSIS POSITION 181200UTC 33.2N 130.6E MOVEMENT NNW 4KT PRES/VMAX 986HPA 41KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 191200UTC 35.7N 129.1E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 992HPA 37KT 48HR POSITION 201200UTC 38.9N 127.9E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 995HPA 33KT 72HR POSITION 211200UTC 41.7N 131.8E WITHIN 0NM PRES 998HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPN31 PGTW 181500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (WUKONG) WARNING NR 025 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 181200Z --- NEAR 33.3N 130.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND REPEAT POSIT: 33.3N 130.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 34.3N 129.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 35.3N 128.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 181500Z POSITION NEAR 33.6N 130.0E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 11W (WUKONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 25 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z AND 190900Z.// ** WTPZ44 KNHC 181442 *** TCDEP4 HURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 800 AM PDT FRI AUG 18 2006 TRMM AND AQUA MICROWAVE PASSES FROM AROUND 1000 UTC SHOW THAT THE EYEWALL OF HECTOR HAS BECOME OPEN IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS ALSO BECOME DEGRADED WITH THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN LOOKING A LITTLE ASYMMETRIC. T-NUMBERS FROM SAB/TAFB HAVE DROPPED A LITTLE AND SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST APPEARS RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD. THE CYCLONE WILL SOON BE PASSING THE 26.5C ISOTHERM WHICH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING. IN ADDITION VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE FROM A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION WHICH WOULD ALSO HELP WEAKEN THE HURRICANE. SHIPS WEAKENS HECTOR RATHER QUICKLY IN THE SHORT-TERM COMPARED TO SIX HOURS AGO... WHICH MAY BE A BIT TOO FAST DUE TO DIAGNOSED SHEAR VALUES THAT APPEARS TO BE OVERESTIMATED. ON THE OTHER HAND... GFDL HOLDS ONTO HECTOR AS A HURRICANE FOR 2 DAYS WHICH SEEMS WAY TOO HIGH. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE SHIPS...WHICH PROBABLY HAS THE RIGHT IDEA...AND AGREES WELL WITH THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS BASICALLY THE SAME AS BEFORE... ABOUT 290/12. THE HURRICANE REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF A MIDDLE- TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER MEXICO. HECTOR COULD TURN A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS IT APPROACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE NOGAPS AND UKMET ARE ON TWO EXTREMES OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE... WITH THE NOGAPS PLOWING HECTOR NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALMOST IMMEDIATELY... WHILE THE UKMET IS SEEMINGLY UNAFFECTED AND CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE BIT SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/1500Z 16.1N 125.8W 85 KT 12HR VT 19/0000Z 16.9N 127.4W 80 KT 24HR VT 19/1200Z 17.8N 129.2W 70 KT 36HR VT 20/0000Z 18.7N 130.8W 60 KT 48HR VT 20/1200Z 19.6N 132.3W 45 KT 72HR VT 21/1200Z 21.0N 134.5W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 22/1200Z 22.0N 137.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 23/1200Z 22.5N 140.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB ** WTPZ24 KNHC 181443 *** TCMEP4 HURRICANE HECTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 1500 UTC FRI AUG 18 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 125.8W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 175SE 175SW 225NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 125.8W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 125.2W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.9N 127.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...125NE 125SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.8N 129.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 45NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 85SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.7N 130.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.6N 132.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.0N 134.5W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 22.0N 137.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 22.5N 140.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 125.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB ** WTPN31 PHNC 181600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 09E (HECTOR) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 181200Z --- NEAR 16.1N 125.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.1N 125.8W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 16.9N 127.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 17.8N 129.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 18.7N 130.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 19.6N 132.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 21.0N 134.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 22.0N 137.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 22.5N 140.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT --- REMARKS: 181600Z POSITION NEAR 16.4N 126.3W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182200Z, 190400Z, 191000Z AND 191600Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 181500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS WUKONG 0610 (0610) INITIAL TIME 181500 UTC 00HR 33.3N 130.5E 988HPA 23M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR NNW 10KM/H= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 181500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0610 WUKONG (0610) ANALYSIS PSTN 181500UTC 33.3N 130.6E FAIR MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 988HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 191500UTC 36.8N 129.0E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 09KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT 45HF 201200UTC 39.2N 127.8E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT 69HF 211200UTC 42.2N 132.2E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTKO20 RKSL 181500 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 17 NAME TS 0610 WUKONG ANALYSIS POSITION 181500UTC 33.3N 130.6E MOVEMENT N 2KT PRES/VMAX 988HPA 41KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 191500UTC 35.7N 129.1E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 992HPA 37KT 48HR POSITION 201500UTC 38.9N 127.9E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 995HPA 33KT 72HR POSITION 211500UTC 41.7N 131.8E WITHIN 0NM PRES 998HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTNT80 EGRR 181733 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 18.08.2006 HURRICANE HECTOR ANALYSED POSITION : 16.0N 125.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP092006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 18.08.2006 16.0N 125.0W MODERATE 00UTC 19.08.2006 16.7N 127.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.08.2006 17.7N 129.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.08.2006 18.2N 132.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.08.2006 18.1N 133.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.08.2006 18.3N 135.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.08.2006 18.9N 136.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.08.2006 18.5N 137.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.08.2006 17.5N 138.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.08.2006 17.1N 140.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.08.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 181733