** WTPQ20 BABJ 180600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS WUKONG 0610 (0610) INITIAL TIME 180600 UTC 00HR 32.8N 130.4E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR NW 15KM/H P+24HR 35.3N 128.4E 990HPA 20M/S P+48HR 37.0N 127.8E 995HPA 15M/S= ** WTIN20 DEMS 180637 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 18-08-2006(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA,NORTH AND SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL AND PARTS OF SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 30 DEG. NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ?????????? ** WTJP21 RJTD 180600 *** WARNING 180600. WARNING VALID 190600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0610 WUKONG (0610) 982 HPA AT 32.6N 130.5E KYUSYU ALMOST STATIONARY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 181800UTC AT 34.0N 130.2E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 35.4N 129.8E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 200600UTC AT 38.5N 128.2E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 210600UTC AT 41.4N 131.5E WITH 290 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1000 HPA. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 180600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0610 WUKONG (0610) ANALYSIS PSTN 180600UTC 32.6N 130.5E FAIR MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 982HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 180NM FORECAST 24HF 190600UTC 35.4N 129.8E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 040KT 48HF 200600UTC 38.5N 128.2E 150NM 70% MOVE N 08KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT 72HF 210600UTC 41.4N 131.5E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTKO20 RKSL 180600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 14 NAME TS 0610 WUKONG ANALYSIS POSITION 180600UTC 32.6N 130.5E MOVEMENT W 2KT PRES/VMAX 985HPA 41KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 190600UTC 35.7N 129.2E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 37KT 48HR POSITION 200600UTC 38.6N 128.2E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 992HPA 33KT 72HR POSITION 210600UTC 41.3N 131.0E WITHIN 0NM PRES 995HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPN31 PGTW 180900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (WUKONG) WARNING NR 024 DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 11W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 180600Z --- NEAR 32.9N 130.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND REPEAT POSIT: 32.9N 130.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 33.6N 129.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 34.7N 128.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 35.5N 127.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 180900Z POSITION NEAR 33.1N 129.9E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 11W (WUKONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 20 NM SOUTHEAST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z AND 190900Z.// ** WTPQ30 RJTD 180600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.12 FOR TS 0610 WUKONG (0610) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 180600 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS DECELERATE. TS WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPZ24 KNHC 180836 *** TCMEP4 HURRICANE HECTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 0900 UTC FRI AUG 18 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 124.4W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 175SE 175SW 225NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 124.4W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 123.9W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.5N 126.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 17.4N 128.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 18.3N 129.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...125NE 125SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 19.0N 131.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.5N 133.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 22.0N 136.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 23.0N 139.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 124.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTPZ44 KNHC 180836 *** TCDEP4 HURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 200 AM PDT FRI AUG 18 2006 THE EYE OF HECTOR HAS BECOME CLOUD-FILLED AGAIN THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TOPS IN THE EYEWALL HAVE COOLED AT THE SAME TIME. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 90 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES... AND THAT IS NOW THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE HURRICANE CURRENTLY HAS GOOD CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS WOBBLING BETWEEN 285-290 DEGREES AT 11-12 KT. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING OR THE FORECAST TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. HECTOR REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE A GENERALLY WEST- NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR 24-48 HR...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AS HECTOR APPROACHES A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. AFTER 96 HR...A MORE WESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST AS HECTOR WEAKENS AND LOW-LEVEL STEERING BECOMES DOMINANT. THE UKMET CONTINUES TO BE A LEFT OUTLIER CALLING FOR A WESTERLY MOTION... WHILE THE GFS IS STILL ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE FORECAST TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GUNA AND CONU CONSENSUS MODELS. HECTOR IS NOW MOVING OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 27C...AND THE WATER GETS PROGRESSIVELY COOLER ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT HECTOR SHOULD PEAK IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 12 HR...IF IT HAS NOT ALREADY DONE SO. AFTER THAT...STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. ONE CHANGE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE IS A FASTER WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION AFTER 48 HR...AS THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AS HECTOR MOVES INTO THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REVISED BASED ON QUIKSCAT DATA AT 0200Z...WHICH SHOWED HECTOR WAS SOMEWHAT LARGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0900Z 15.8N 124.4W 90 KT 12HR VT 18/1800Z 16.5N 126.0W 90 KT 24HR VT 19/0600Z 17.4N 128.0W 85 KT 36HR VT 19/1800Z 18.3N 129.7W 75 KT 48HR VT 20/0600Z 19.0N 131.1W 65 KT 72HR VT 21/0600Z 20.5N 133.5W 45 KT 96HR VT 22/0600Z 22.0N 136.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 23/0600Z 23.0N 139.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTPN31 PHNC 181000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 09E (HECTOR) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 180600Z --- NEAR 15.8N 124.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N 124.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 16.5N 126.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 17.4N 128.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 18.3N 129.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 19.0N 131.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 20.5N 133.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 22.0N 136.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 23.0N 139.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT --- REMARKS: 181000Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 124.9W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181600Z, 182200Z, 190400Z AND 191000Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 180900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS WUKONG 0610 (0610) INITIAL TIME 180900 UTC 00HR 32.8N 130.4E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR NW 10KM/H P+24HR 35.3N 129.0E 990HPA 20M/S P+48HR 37.9N 128.7E 995HPA 15M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 180900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0610 WUKONG (0610) ANALYSIS PSTN 180900UTC 32.9N 130.7E FAIR MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 984HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 180NM FORECAST 24HF 190900UTC 35.8N 129.6E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT 45HF 200600UTC 38.5N 128.2E 150NM 70% MOVE N 08KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT 69HF 210600UTC 41.4N 131.5E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTKO20 RKSL 180900 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 15 NAME TS 0610 WUKONG ANALYSIS POSITION 180900UTC 32.9N 130.7E MOVEMENT N 1KT PRES/VMAX 985HPA 41KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 190900UTC 35.7N 129.1E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 992HPA 37KT 48HR POSITION 200900UTC 38.4N 128.1E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 995HPA 33KT 72HR POSITION 210900UTC 41.1N 130.9E WITHIN 0NM PRES 998HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.