** WTSR20 WSSS 171800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 180000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS WUKONG 0610 (0610) INITIAL TIME 180000 UTC 00HR 32.5N 130.6E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR NW 15KM/H P+24HR 35.1N 129.6E 990HPA 20M/S P+48HR 37.1N 129.6E 990HPA 20M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 180000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0610 WUKONG (0610) ANALYSIS PSTN 180000UTC 32.6N 130.7E FAIR MOVE NNW 06KT PRES 982HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 180NM FORECAST 24HF 190000UTC 35.4N 130.5E 90NM 70% MOVE N 08KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 200000UTC 38.9N 129.1E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 09KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 035KT 72HF 210000UTC 42.4N 132.8E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP21 RJTD 180000 *** WARNING 180000. WARNING VALID 190000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0610 WUKONG (0610) 982 HPA AT 32.6N 130.7E KYUSYU MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 33.7N 130.7E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 190000UTC AT 35.4N 130.5E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 200000UTC AT 38.9N 129.1E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 210000UTC AT 42.4N 132.8E WITH 290 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1000 HPA. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 180000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.11 FOR TS 0610 WUKONG (0610) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 180000 UTC IS GOOD. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS DECELERATE. TS WILL MOVE NORTH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 180000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 13 NAME TS 0610 WUKONG ANALYSIS POSITION 180000UTC 32.6N 130.7E MOVEMENT NW 9KT PRES/VMAX 985HPA 41KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 190000UTC 35.0N 130.2E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 41KT 48HR POSITION 200000UTC 37.8N 129.7E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 37KT 72HR POSITION 210000UTC 40.5N 130.3E WITHIN 0NM PRES 995HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPN31 PGTW 180300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (WUKONG) WARNING NR 023 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 180000Z --- NEAR 32.6N 130.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND REPEAT POSIT: 32.6N 130.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 33.7N 129.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 34.7N 128.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 35.8N 127.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 180300Z POSITION NEAR 32.9N 130.2E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (WUKONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 50 NM SOUTH- EAST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z, 181500Z, 182100Z AND 190300Z.// ** WTPZ44 KNHC 180255 *** TCDEP4 HURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 800 PM PDT THU AUG 17 2006 THE EYE OF HECTOR BECAME CLOUD FILLED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...BUT WITHIN THE LAST HOUR OR SO...THE EYE HAS BECOME MORE DISTINCT IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. AT THIS TIME... THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 80 KT...WHICH IS A BLEND OF DVORAK ESTIMATES THAT ARE BETWEEN 77 AND 85 KT...FROM TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS ADT. INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT HECTOR SHOULD BE REACHING ITS PEAK INTENSITY SOON. THE GFDL MODEL IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN STRENGTHENING THE HURRICANE TO ABOVE 90 KT WITHIN 24 HOURS...WHILE THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND SHIPS MODELS PEAK HECTOR AT 82 AND 81 KT RESPECTIVELY. SINCE THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS SIGNS OF WHY HECTOR SHOULD NOT STRENGTHEN FURTHER...THE FORECAST BRINGS THE INTENSITY TO 90 KT IN ABOUT 12 HOURS...WHICH IS A COMPROMISE OF THE GFDL AND SHIPS. BEYOND 24 HOURS...HECTOR WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO IMPART A MORE RAPID WEAKENING. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS UNCHANGED AT 285/11. HECTOR CONTINUES TO MOVE AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE HURRICANE SHOULD SOON TURN MORE NORTHWESTWARD AS IT APPROACHES A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE GFDL AND GFS MODELS CONTINUE TO BE ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...WHILE THE UKMET IS ON THE LEFT. THE TRACK FORECAST IS THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE AND CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0300Z 15.4N 123.2W 80 KT 12HR VT 18/1200Z 15.9N 124.8W 90 KT 24HR VT 19/0000Z 16.7N 126.7W 85 KT 36HR VT 19/1200Z 17.6N 128.6W 75 KT 48HR VT 20/0000Z 18.4N 130.1W 65 KT 72HR VT 21/0000Z 20.0N 132.8W 50 KT 96HR VT 22/0000Z 21.5N 135.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 23/0000Z 22.5N 138.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA ** WTPZ24 KNHC 180255 *** TCMEP4 HURRICANE HECTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 0300 UTC FRI AUG 18 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 123.2W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 90SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 175SE 175SW 225NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 123.2W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 122.7W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 15.9N 124.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.7N 126.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.6N 128.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.4N 130.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.0N 132.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 21.5N 135.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 22.5N 138.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 123.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA ** WTPQ20 BABJ 180300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS WUKONG 0610 (0610) INITIAL TIME 180300 UTC 00HR 32.7N 130.4E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR NW 15KM/H= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 180300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0610 WUKONG (0610) ANALYSIS PSTN 180300UTC 32.6N 130.4E FAIR MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 982HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 180NM FORECAST 24HF 190300UTC 35.4N 130.1E 90NM 70% MOVE N 08KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 45HF 200000UTC 38.9N 129.1E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 09KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 035KT 69HF 210000UTC 42.4N 132.8E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTNT80 EGRR 180458 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 18.08.2006 HURRICANE HECTOR ANALYSED POSITION : 14.8N 122.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP092006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 18.08.2006 14.8N 122.9W STRONG 12UTC 18.08.2006 15.1N 125.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.08.2006 15.7N 127.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.08.2006 16.0N 129.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.08.2006 16.6N 131.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.08.2006 16.5N 133.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.08.2006 17.1N 134.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.08.2006 17.4N 134.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.08.2006 17.2N 135.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.08.2006 17.5N 136.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.08.2006 16.6N 138.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.08.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 11.2N 142.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 19.08.2006 11.2N 142.8W WEAK 12UTC 19.08.2006 10.8N 143.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.08.2006 10.5N 148.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.08.2006 10.1N 148.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.08.2006 14.0N 146.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.08.2006 14.8N 147.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.08.2006 15.5N 149.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.08.2006 15.8N 151.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.08.2006 15.9N 152.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.08.2006 15.5N 153.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.08.2006 16.0N 153.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 11.9N 160.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 20.08.2006 11.9N 160.1W WEAK 00UTC 21.08.2006 12.3N 161.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.08.2006 13.6N 163.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.08.2006 14.8N 165.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.08.2006 15.7N 167.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.08.2006 16.4N 168.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.08.2006 16.6N 170.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.08.2006 16.3N 172.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 180458