** WTPQ20 BABJ 171800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS WUKONG 0610 (0610) INITIAL TIME 171800 UTC 00HR 31.9N 131.5E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 32.6N 130.4E 990HPA 20M/S P+48HR 33.7N 129.5E 990HPA 20M/S P+72HR 35.1N 128.9E 990HPA 20M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 171800 *** WARNING 171800. WARNING VALID 181800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0610 WUKONG (0610) 980 HPA AT 32.0N 131.1E KYUSYU MOVING NORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 33.1N 130.6E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 181800UTC AT 34.5N 130.5E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 191800UTC AT 38.2N 129.5E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 201800UTC AT 41.7N 130.4E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1000 HPA. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 171800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0610 WUKONG (0610) ANALYSIS PSTN 171800UTC 32.0N 131.1E FAIR MOVE NW 07KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 180NM FORECAST 24HF 181800UTC 34.5N 130.5E 90NM 70% MOVE N 07KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 191800UTC 38.2N 129.5E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 09KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 035KT 72HF 201800UTC 41.7N 130.4E 220NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTKO20 RKSL 171800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 12 NAME TS 0610 WUKONG ANALYSIS POSITION 171800UTC 32.0N 131.1E MOVEMENT WNW 7KT PRES/VMAX 980HPA 45KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 181800UTC 34.1N 130.3E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 41KT 48HR POSITION 191800UTC 36.3N 130.0E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 37KT 72HR POSITION 201800UTC 39.0N 129.8E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 995HPA 33KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPZ44 KNHC 172036 *** TCDEP4 HURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 200 PM PDT THU AUG 17 2006 SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES A INTENSIFYING CYCLONE WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYE HAVING FORMED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB...TAFB...AND UW-CIMSS ADT ARE UNANIMOUSLY BETWEEN 75 AND 80 KT. ADDITIONALLY...AN AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM AN OVERPASS AROUND 1400 UTC WAS 76 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT THE HIGH END OF THIS RANGE GIVEN THE RECENT APPEARANCE OF AN EYE AND THE OVERALL IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE SIGNATURE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REASONING IS A LITTLE MUDDIED BY THE CURRENT DEVELOPMENT TREND. NONE OF THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS MUCH ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING WITH THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 85 KT...THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE 83 KT...AND THE GFDL 91 KT. HOWEVER...IN THE SHORT-TERM...THERE ARE SEEMINGLY NO SIGNIFICANT FEATURES WHICH MIGHT ARREST THE CURRENT UPWARD TREND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND LARGE AREA OF DRY MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL AIR TO THE WEST OF HECTOR. HOWEVER...IN THE ABSENCE OF VERTICAL SHEAR...IT IS ASSUMED THE CYCLONE WILL BE UNAFFECTED BY THIS DRY AIR. INDEED...SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS SHEAR AXIS WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT IS OBLITERATED BY THE OUTFLOW FROM HECTOR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AT THE UPPER END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SPECTRUM AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GFDL MODEL...SHOWING HECTOR BECOMING A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BEYOND DAY 2...THE FORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE MORE STRAIGHTFORWARD AS HECTOR MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS... ULTIMATELY RESULTING IN RAPID WEAKENING. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 285/11. HECTOR CONTINUES TO MOVE AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN MORE NORTHWESTWARD AS IT APPROACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 125W AND 135W. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH BUT IS OTHERWISE VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/2100Z 15.0N 122.1W 80 KT 12HR VT 18/0600Z 15.4N 123.7W 85 KT 24HR VT 18/1800Z 16.2N 125.7W 90 KT 36HR VT 19/0600Z 17.0N 127.7W 80 KT 48HR VT 19/1800Z 17.9N 129.6W 70 KT 72HR VT 20/1800Z 19.5N 132.5W 50 KT 96HR VT 21/1800Z 21.0N 135.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 22/1800Z 22.5N 138.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB ** WTPZ24 KNHC 172036 *** TCMEP4 HURRICANE HECTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 2100 UTC THU AUG 17 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 122.1W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 90SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 150SW 200NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 122.1W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 121.6W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 15.4N 123.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.2N 125.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 17.0N 127.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.9N 129.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 75SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.5N 132.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 21.0N 135.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 22.5N 138.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 122.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z $$ FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB ** WTPN31 PHNC 172200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 09E (HECTOR) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 171800Z --- NEAR 15.0N 122.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 122.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 15.4N 123.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 16.2N 125.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 17.0N 127.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 17.9N 129.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 19.5N 132.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 21.0N 135.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 22.5N 138.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 172200Z POSITION NEAR 15.1N 122.6W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180400Z, 181000Z, 181600Z AND 182200Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 172100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS WUKONG 0610 (0610) INITIAL TIME 172100 UTC 00HR 32.1N 130.9E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 33.4N 129.6E 990HPA 20M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 172100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0610 WUKONG (0610) ANALYSIS PSTN 172100UTC 32.4N 130.9E FAIR MOVE NW 08KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 180NM FORECAST 24HF 182100UTC 34.8N 130.5E 90NM 70% MOVE N 08KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 45HF 191800UTC 38.2N 129.5E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 09KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 035KT 69HF 201800UTC 41.7N 130.4E 220NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =