** WTSR20 WSSS 170600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 171200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS WUKONG 0610 (0610) INITIAL TIME 171200 UTC 00HR 31.5N 132.3E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR NW 10KM/H P+24HR 32.9N 130.6E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 34.1N 128.9E 990HPA 23M/S P+72HR 34.9N 127.1E 995HPA 20M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 171200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0610 WUKONG (0610) ANALYSIS PSTN 171200UTC 31.6N 131.9E FAIR MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 180NM FORECAST 24HF 181200UTC 34.1N 131.0E 90NM 70% MOVE N 08KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 191200UTC 37.6N 130.6E 150NM 70% MOVE N 08KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 72HF 201200UTC 40.4N 130.2E 220NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP21 RJTD 171200 *** WARNING 171200. WARNING VALID 181200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0610 WUKONG (0610) 980 HPA AT 31.6N 131.9E EAST OF KYUSYU MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 32.5N 131.1E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 34.1N 131.0E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 37.6N 130.6E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 201200UTC AT 40.4N 130.2E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1000 HPA. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 171200 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 11 NAME TS 0610 WUKONG ANALYSIS POSITION 171200UTC 31.6N 131.9E MOVEMENT WNW 6KT PRES/VMAX 980HPA 45KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 181200UTC 33.4N 130.6E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 41KT 48HR POSITION 191200UTC 35.6N 130.2E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 37KT 72HR POSITION 201200UTC 38.2N 130.2E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 995HPA 33KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPN31 PGTW 171500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (WUKONG) WARNING NR 021 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 171200Z --- NEAR 31.6N 132.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 31.6N 132.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 32.5N 131.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 33.6N 130.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 34.7N 129.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 35.6N 128.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 171500Z POSITION NEAR 31.8N 131.7E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (WUKONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM SOUTHEAST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z AND 181500Z.// ** WTPZ24 KNHC 171435 *** TCMEP4 HURRICANE HECTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 1500 UTC THU AUG 17 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 121.1W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 90SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 150SW 200NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 121.1W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 120.7W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 15.3N 122.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 16.2N 124.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 17.1N 126.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.0N 128.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.0N 132.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 21.5N 134.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 22.5N 136.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 121.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB ** WTPZ44 KNHC 171444 *** TCDEP4 HURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 800 AM PDT THU AUG 17 2006 ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS THAT A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...WITH A WELL-DEVELOPED WHITE BAND OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 77 KT AND 65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY...AND ADT CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST HECTOR IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN 70 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW CHANNEL OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM...WITH LIGHT UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES OVER THE REMAINING PORTIONS. INTENSITY MODELS SUGGEST NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...THEREFORE...A LITTLE MORE INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST. AFTERWARD...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE BEGINS TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND WITHIN A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. BY DAY 3...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST OF HAWAII...ALONG 140W. THIS SCENARIO COULD INFLUENCE RAPID WEAKENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/11. HECTOR IS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO 27N130W FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...TURNING MORE NORTHWESTWARD THEREAFTER AS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO...AND IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON THE UKMET. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/1500Z 14.7N 121.1W 75 KT 12HR VT 18/0000Z 15.3N 122.8W 80 KT 24HR VT 18/1200Z 16.2N 124.9W 80 KT 36HR VT 19/0000Z 17.1N 126.9W 75 KT 48HR VT 19/1200Z 18.0N 128.9W 70 KT 72HR VT 20/1200Z 20.0N 132.0W 55 KT 96HR VT 21/1200Z 21.5N 134.0W 35 KT 120HR VT 22/1200Z 22.5N 136.0W 25 KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB ** WTPN31 PHNC 171600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 09E (HECTOR) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 171200Z --- NEAR 14.7N 121.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.7N 121.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 15.3N 122.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 16.2N 124.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 17.1N 126.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 18.0N 128.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 20.0N 132.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 21.5N 134.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 22.5N 136.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT --- REMARKS: 171600Z POSITION NEAR 14.9N 121.7W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172200Z, 180400Z, 181000Z AND 181600Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 171500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS WUKONG 0610 (0610) INITIAL TIME 171500 UTC 00HR 31.7N 131.7E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 171500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0610 WUKONG (0610) ANALYSIS PSTN 171500UTC 31.8N 131.7E FAIR MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 180NM FORECAST 24HF 181500UTC 34.4N 130.8E 90NM 70% MOVE N 08KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 45HF 191200UTC 37.6N 130.6E 150NM 70% MOVE N 08KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 69HF 201200UTC 40.4N 130.2E 220NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTNT80 EGRR 171721 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 17.08.2006 HURRICANE HECTOR ANALYSED POSITION : 14.8N 120.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP092006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 17.08.2006 14.8N 120.2W MODERATE 00UTC 18.08.2006 15.2N 122.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.08.2006 15.6N 124.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.08.2006 16.2N 126.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.08.2006 16.7N 129.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.08.2006 16.8N 130.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.08.2006 17.1N 132.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.08.2006 17.4N 133.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.08.2006 17.5N 134.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.08.2006 17.1N 136.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.08.2006 17.4N 137.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.08.2006 16.0N 139.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.08.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 11.4N 147.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 19.08.2006 11.4N 147.0W WEAK 00UTC 20.08.2006 11.1N 147.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.08.2006 11.8N 147.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.08.2006 12.3N 147.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.08.2006 14.0N 148.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.08.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 171721