** WTIN20 DEMS 170642 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 17-08-2006(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER ANDAMAN SEA,WEST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL,EAST ARABIAN SEA,AND PARTS OF SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 31 DEG. NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ?????????? ** WTJP21 RJTD 170600 *** WARNING 170600. WARNING VALID 180600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0610 WUKONG (0610) 980 HPA AT 31.2N 132.4E SOUTHEAST OF KYUSYU MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 32.2N 131.1E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 33.6N 130.7E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 36.8N 130.4E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 200600UTC AT 41.1N 130.0E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 170600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0610 WUKONG (0610) ANALYSIS PSTN 170600UTC 31.2N 132.4E GOOD MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 160NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 180600UTC 33.6N 130.7E 80NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 190600UTC 36.8N 130.4E 150NM 70% MOVE N 08KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT 72HF 200600UTC 41.1N 130.0E 220NM 70% MOVE N 10KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTKO20 RKSL 170600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 10 NAME TS 0610 WUKONG ANALYSIS POSITION 170600UTC 31.2N 132.4E MOVEMENT WNW 6KT PRES/VMAX 980HPA 45KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 180600UTC 32.4N 130.4E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 41KT 48HR POSITION 190600UTC 35.0N 129.7E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 37KT 72HR POSITION 200600UTC 36.9N 129.9E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 995HPA 33KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 170600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS WUKONG 0610 (0610) INITIAL TIME 170600 UTC 00HR 31.3N 132.7E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR NW 10KM/H P+24HR 32.7N 130.7E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 33.7N 129.1E 985HPA 25M/S P+72HR 34.6N 127.3E 985HPA 25M/S= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 170600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.10 FOR TS 0610 WUKONG (0610) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 170600 UTC IS GOOD. TS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NORTH. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 170900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (WUKONG) WARNING NR 020 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 170600Z --- NEAR 31.3N 132.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 31.3N 132.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 32.1N 131.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 33.1N 130.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 34.3N 129.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 35.3N 128.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 170900Z POSITION NEAR 31.5N 132.1E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (WUKONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM SOUTHEAST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z, 172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z.// ** WTPZ44 KNHC 170833 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 200 AM PDT THU AUG 17 2006 INFRARED IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH HECTOR HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C NOW CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW 65 KT FROM TAFB...AND 55 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 290/9...ALTHOUGH A WESTWARD JOG MAY BE UNDERWAY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HECTOR IS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...MOVING TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR 25N130W. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS GENERAL PATTERN TO PERSIST FOR 72 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE MID/UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH N OF 25N W OF 125W. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP HECTOR MOVING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 72 HR...WITH A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION LIKELY THEREAFTER. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET WHICH KEEPS MORE RIDGING NORTH OF HECTOR AND THUS CONTINUES TO FORECAST A MORE WESTWARD MOTION. THE TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION...LYING ALONG THE LEFT EDGE OF THE MAIN GUIDANCE CLUSTER. IT IS ALSO A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. HECTOR REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...AND IT IS APPROACHING AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS THAT EXISTS BETWEEN UPPER-LEVEL HIGHS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND AND 16N134W. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS DUAL-HIGH PATTERN WILL BE REPLACED BY A SINGLE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH NEAR OR OVER HECTOR IN 24-48 HR...WHICH WOULD DECREASE THE SHEAR. HOWEVER...BY THAT TIME HECTOR SHOULD BE MOVING OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE SHIPS MODEL RESPONDS TO THESE CONDITIONS BY FORECASTING STEADY WEAKENING...WHILE THE GFDL CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING TO 75 KT IN 24-36 HR FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE GFDL FOR THE FIRST 24 HR...WITH HECTOR FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. IT THEN FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND SHIPS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER 72-96 HR...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHEAR DUE TO THE DEVELOPING MID/ UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...HECTOR COULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0900Z 14.5N 119.6W 60 KT 12HR VT 17/1800Z 15.0N 121.0W 70 KT 24HR VT 18/0600Z 15.8N 123.0W 75 KT 36HR VT 18/1800Z 16.6N 125.0W 70 KT 48HR VT 19/0600Z 17.4N 127.1W 60 KT 72HR VT 20/0600Z 19.5N 130.5W 50 KT 96HR VT 21/0600Z 21.0N 133.0W 35 KT 120HR VT 22/0600Z 23.0N 135.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTPZ24 KNHC 170834 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 0900 UTC THU AUG 17 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 119.6W AT 17/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 150SW 200NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 119.6W AT 17/0900Z AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 119.1W FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 15.0N 121.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 15.8N 123.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.6N 125.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 17.4N 127.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 19.5N 130.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 21.0N 133.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 23.0N 135.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 119.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTPN31 PHNC 171000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 09E (HECTOR) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 170600Z --- NEAR 14.5N 119.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 119.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 15.0N 121.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 15.8N 123.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 16.6N 125.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 17.4N 127.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 19.5N 130.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 21.0N 133.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 23.0N 135.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT --- REMARKS: 171000Z POSITION NEAR 14.7N 120.1W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171600Z, 172200Z, 180400Z AND 181000Z.// ** WTPQ20 RJTD 170900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0610 WUKONG (0610) ANALYSIS PSTN 170900UTC 31.4N 132.2E GOOD MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 160NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 180900UTC 33.5N 130.7E 90NM 70% MOVE N 07KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 45HF 190600UTC 36.8N 130.4E 150NM 70% MOVE N 08KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT 69HF 200600UTC 41.1N 130.0E 220NM 70% MOVE N 10KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 035KT =