** WTSR20 WSSS 161800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTJP21 RJTD 170000 *** WARNING 170000. WARNING VALID 180000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0610 WUKONG (0610) 980 HPA AT 31.0N 133.1E SOUTHEAST OF KYUSYU MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 31.3N 131.9E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 31.9N 130.7E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 190000UTC AT 34.3N 129.9E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 200000UTC AT 37.0N 129.6E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 170000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0610 WUKONG (0610) ANALYSIS PSTN 170000UTC 31.0N 133.1E FAIR MOVE NNW 10KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 160NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 180000UTC 31.9N 130.7E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 190000UTC 34.3N 129.9E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 06KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 72HF 200000UTC 37.0N 129.6E 220NM 70% MOVE N 06KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 170000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS WUKONG 0610 (0610) INITIAL TIME 170000 UTC 00HR 31.0N 133.2E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR NW 10KM/H P+24HR 32.5N 130.8E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 33.4N 128.9E 985HPA 25M/S P+72HR 34.1N 126.8E 985HPA 25M/S= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 170000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 9 FOR TS 0610 WUKONG (0610) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 170000 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL DECELERATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS DECELERATE. TS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NORTH-NORTHWEST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 170000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 9 NAME TS 0610 WUKONG ANALYSIS POSITION 170000UTC 31.0N 133.1E MOVEMENT NNW 10KT PRES/VMAX 980HPA 45KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 180000UTC 32.0N 130.6E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 41KT 48HR POSITION 190000UTC 34.1N 129.6E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 37KT 72HR POSITION 200000UTC 35.9N 129.8E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 995HPA 33KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPZ44 KNHC 170232 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 800 PM PDT WED AUG 16 2006 THE INTENSIFICATION TREND THAT HECTOR WENT THROUGH EARLIER IN THE DAY APPEARS TO HAVE TAKEN A TEMPORARY HIATUS. CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE NOW BECOME A CONSENSUS 3.5 FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES AND JUSTIFY MAINTAINING THE SYSTEM AT AN INTENSITY OF 55 KT. HECTOR APPEARS TO HAVE TAKEN A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWESTWARD JOG DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 290/9...BUT THIS COULD BE PART OF A SERIES OF WOBBLES AS THE CONVECTION TRIES TO ORGANIZE. NONETHELESS...THE SYSTEM HAS REACHED THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ONLY NUDGED FARTHER NORTH DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT MOTION...BUT THEN FALLS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BEYOND THAT. THIS TRACK IS ALSO SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS IN ORDER TO PLACE LESS EMPHASIS ON THE UKMET MODEL...WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE HAD A SOUTHWARD BIAS SO FAR. INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT HECTOR MAY NOT HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO STRENGTHEN AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BECOME MARGINAL AT 48 HOURS AND THE STORM IS ALREADY MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT OF STRATOCUMULUS TO ITS NORTHWEST. THE FORECAST FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND ONLY STRENGTHENS HECTOR TO 75 KT BY 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE THEIR TOLL WITH HECTOR LIKELY TO BECOME A DEPRESSION BY 120 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0300Z 14.3N 118.6W 55 KT 12HR VT 17/1200Z 14.7N 119.7W 65 KT 24HR VT 18/0000Z 15.4N 121.4W 70 KT 36HR VT 18/1200Z 16.2N 123.5W 75 KT 48HR VT 19/0000Z 17.0N 125.6W 70 KT 72HR VT 20/0000Z 19.0N 129.5W 55 KT 96HR VT 21/0000Z 21.0N 132.5W 40 KT 120HR VT 22/0000Z 22.5N 134.5W 25 KT $$ FORECASTER BERG/PASCH ** WTPZ24 KNHC 170241 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 0300 UTC THU AUG 17 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 118.6W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 150SW 200NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 118.6W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 118.0W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.7N 119.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 15.4N 121.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 16.2N 123.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 17.0N 125.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 19.0N 129.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 21.0N 132.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 22.5N 134.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 118.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG/PASCH ** WTPN31 PGTW 170300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (WUKONG) WARNING NR 019 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 170000Z --- NEAR 31.0N 133.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 31.0N 133.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 31.9N 131.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 32.7N 130.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 33.8N 129.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 34.9N 128.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 170300Z POSITION NEAR 31.2N 132.7E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (WUKONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM SOUTHEAST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 170400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 09E (HECTOR) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 170000Z --- NEAR 14.1N 118.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 118.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 14.7N 119.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 15.4N 121.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 16.2N 123.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 17.0N 125.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 19.0N 129.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 21.0N 132.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 22.5N 134.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT --- REMARKS: 170400Z POSITION NEAR 14.3N 118.6W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171000Z, 171600Z, 172200Z AND 180400Z.// ** WTPQ20 RJTD 170300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0610 WUKONG (0610) ANALYSIS PSTN 170300UTC 31.1N 132.6E GOOD MOVE W 08KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 160NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 180300UTC 33.3N 130.8E 80NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 45HF 190000UTC 34.3N 129.9E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 06KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 69HF 200000UTC 37.0N 129.6E 220NM 70% MOVE N 06KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTNT80 EGRR 170530 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 17.08.2006 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR ANALYSED POSITION : 13.3N 117.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP092006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 17.08.2006 13.3N 117.4W WEAK 12UTC 17.08.2006 14.1N 120.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.08.2006 15.1N 122.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 18.08.2006 15.6N 125.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.08.2006 15.9N 127.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.08.2006 16.0N 130.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.08.2006 16.3N 132.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.08.2006 16.7N 134.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.08.2006 17.2N 135.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.08.2006 17.5N 136.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.08.2006 17.5N 138.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.08.2006 17.5N 139.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.08.2006 17.7N 141.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 170530