** WTIN20 DEMS 161804 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 16-08-2006(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 1700 UTC (.) SUB: DEPRESSION OVER BAY OF BENGAL. THE DEPRESSION OVER NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED WESTWARDS AND LAY CENTRED AT 1200 UTC OF TODAY,THE 16TH AUGUST, 2006 NEAR LAT.20.5 DEG.N AND LONG.87.0 DEG.E,ABOUT 50 KM SOUTHEAST OF CHANDBALI. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE IN A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND CROSS NORTH ORISSA COAST BETWEEN PARADIP AND BALASORE CLOSE TO CHANDBALI BY TONIGHT. BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER ORISSA,NORTH COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH AND WEST BENGAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. MSG OVER ???? ** WTPQ20 BABJ 161800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS WUKONG 0610 (0610) INITIAL TIME 161800 UTC 00HR 29.8N 133.8E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR W 10KM/H P+24HR 29.9N 131.9E 975HPA 30M/S P+48HR 31.3N 129.8E 970HPA 33M/S P+72HR 32.9N 128.2E 975HPA 30M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 161800 *** WARNING 161800. WARNING VALID 171800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0610 WUKONG (0610) 985 HPA AT 29.9N 133.8E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN ALMOST STATIONARY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 230 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 30.4N 132.4E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 31.4N 131.1E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 181800UTC AT 33.4N 129.6E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 191800UTC AT 36.0N 129.4E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 161800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0610 WUKONG (0610) ANALYSIS PSTN 161800UTC 29.9N 133.8E FAIR MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 230NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 171800UTC 31.4N 131.1E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 07KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 181800UTC 33.4N 129.6E 150NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 72HF 191800UTC 36.0N 129.4E 220NM 70% MOVE N 06KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTKO20 RKSL 161800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 8 NAME TS 0610 WUKONG ANALYSIS POSITION 161800UTC 29.9N 133.8E MOVEMENT W 1KT PRES/VMAX 985HPA 41KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 171800UTC 31.0N 131.4E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 41KT 48HR POSITION 181800UTC 32.7N 129.8E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 41KT 72HR POSITION 191800UTC 34.4N 128.9E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 37KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPZ44 KNHC 162035 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 200 PM PDT WED AUG 16 2006 VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTS THAT HECTOR HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A BANDING EYE BEGINNING TO FORM. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 AND 55 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY. THE INTENSITY REMAINS AT 55 KT...BUT HECTOR COULD EASILY BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 285/9. HECTOR IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM TEXAS...CONTINUING ON WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. LARGE-SCALE MODELS AND THE GFDL CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED AFTER 72 HOURS...CAUSING HECTOR TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN MORE NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE UKMET AND THE NOGAPS REMAIN THE OUTLIERS...WITH THE UKMET MAINTAINING A WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH DAY 5...AND NOGAPS INDICATING A MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...WELL TO THE RIGHT OF THE REMAINING GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...GFDL...THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE. WIND RADII ARE SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED BASED ON A 1357Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/2100Z 13.8N 117.6W 55 KT 12HR VT 17/0600Z 14.1N 119.0W 65 KT 24HR VT 17/1800Z 14.6N 120.7W 75 KT 36HR VT 18/0600Z 15.2N 122.6W 80 KT 48HR VT 18/1800Z 16.2N 124.8W 75 KT 72HR VT 19/1800Z 18.0N 128.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 20/1800Z 20.0N 132.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 21/1800Z 21.5N 134.0W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB ** WTPZ24 KNHC 162035 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 2100 UTC WED AUG 16 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 117.6W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 55NE 75SE 70SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 150SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 117.6W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 117.1W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.1N 119.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 14.6N 120.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 15.2N 122.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.2N 124.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 18.0N 128.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 20.0N 132.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 21.5N 134.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 117.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB ** WTPN31 PGTW 162100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (WUKONG) WARNING NR 018 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 161800Z --- NEAR 29.6N 133.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 29.6N 133.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 30.1N 132.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 31.0N 131.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 32.1N 130.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 33.1N 129.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 34.1N 126.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 34.8N 121.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 35.0N 118.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 162100Z POSITION NEAR 29.7N 133.4E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (WUKONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM SOUTHEAST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE FORECAST TRACK OF TS 11W IS CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. TS 11W IS NOW FORECAST TO PASS OVER THE ISLAND OF KYUSHU BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36 AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARDS A SERIES OF APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS. BEYOND TAU 48, RIDGING WILL BUILD BEHIND THE TROUGHS, FORCING TS 11W INTO A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z, 170900Z, 171500Z AND 172100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (SONAMU) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ20 RJTD 162100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0610 WUKONG (0610) ANALYSIS PSTN 162100UTC 30.1N 133.6E FAIR MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 160NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 172100UTC 31.6N 131.0E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 45HF 181800UTC 33.4N 129.6E 150NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 69HF 191800UTC 36.0N 129.4E 220NM 70% MOVE N 06KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTPN31 PHNC 162200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 09E (HECTOR) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 161800Z --- NEAR 13.6N 117.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.6N 117.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 14.1N 119.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 14.6N 120.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 15.2N 122.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 16.2N 124.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 18.0N 128.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 20.0N 132.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 21.5N 134.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: 162200Z POSITION NEAR 13.8N 117.7W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170400Z, 171000Z, 171600Z AND 172200Z.//