** WTSR20 WSSS 160600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 161200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0610 WUKONG (0610) ANALYSIS PSTN 161200UTC 29.8N 134.0E FAIR MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 230NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 171200UTC 31.0N 131.1E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 181200UTC 32.8N 128.8E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 06KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 72HF 191200UTC 34.9N 127.3E 220NM 70% MOVE NW 06KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 161200 *** WARNING 161200. WARNING VALID 171200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0610 WUKONG (0610) 985 HPA AT 29.8N 134.0E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 230 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 30.2N 132.5E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 31.0N 131.1E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 32.8N 128.8E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 34.9N 127.3E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 161200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS WUKONG 0610 (0610) INITIAL TIME 161200 UTC 00HR 29.8N 134.3E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR W 10KM/H P+24HR 29.8N 132.3E 975HPA 30M/S P+48HR 30.3N 130.0E 970HPA 33M/S P+72HR 31.9N 128.3E 975HPA 30M/S= ** WTPZ44 KNHC 161455 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 800 AM PDT WED AUG 16 2006 ALL INDICATIONS FROM GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING ARE THAT HECTOR IS STRENGTHENING...BUT JUST HOW STRONG IS SUBJECT TO SOME SPECULATION...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE WELL-EMBEDDED BENEATH THE MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH A TRMM OVERPASS FROM 1052Z SUGGESTED THE CENTER WAS STILL TENDING TOWARD THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONVECTION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 35 TO 55 KT...IN LARGE PART DUE TO THE LOCATION UNCERTAINTY. GIVEN THE CENTER LOCATION SUGGESTED BY THE TRMM DATA...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE HIGH END OF THE DVORAK ESTIMATES...AND HECTOR COULD BECOME A HURRICANE VERY SOON. INDEED...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING...WITH WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR ANTICIPATED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...UNTIL THE CYCLONE REACHES COOLER WATERS IN ABOUT THREE DAYS. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD...WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 80 KT AT 36-48 HOURS...WHICH IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. HECTOR CONTINUES WESTWARD FOR NOW...270 DEGREES AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS AND EXTENDING WESTWARD OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN PACIFIC. HECTOR WILL PROBABLY SOON START MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT REACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR 125 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST SOMEWHAT OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS TO THE NORTH OF HECTOR...BUT WITH JUST ENOUGH RIDGING TO KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. A COUPLE OF OUTLIERS REMAIN ON BOTH SIDES OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUITE...WITH THE NOGAPS AND GFDN ON THE NORTH AND THE UKMET ON THE SOUTH. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MODELS IN THE MIDDLE...THE GFDL AND GFS...AND IS NUDGED JUST A BIT TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK...TOWARD THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/1500Z 13.0N 117.2W 55 KT 12HR VT 17/0000Z 13.4N 118.7W 65 KT 24HR VT 17/1200Z 13.9N 120.7W 75 KT 36HR VT 18/0000Z 14.6N 122.7W 80 KT 48HR VT 18/1200Z 15.3N 124.6W 80 KT 72HR VT 19/1200Z 17.0N 128.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 20/1200Z 19.0N 132.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 21/1200Z 20.5N 135.0W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER KNABB ** WTPZ24 KNHC 161455 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 1500 UTC WED AUG 16 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 117.2W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 150SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 117.2W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 116.7W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 13.4N 118.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 13.9N 120.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 14.6N 122.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...115NE 90SE 90SW 115NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 15.3N 124.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...115NE 90SE 90SW 115NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.0N 128.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 19.0N 132.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 20.5N 135.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 117.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KNABB ** WTPQ20 RJTD 161500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0610 WUKONG (0610) ANALYSIS PSTN 161500UTC 29.8N 134.0E FAIR MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 230NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 171500UTC 31.2N 130.9E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 45HF 181200UTC 32.8N 128.8E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 06KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 69HF 191200UTC 34.9N 127.3E 220NM 70% MOVE NW 06KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTNT80 EGRR 161650 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 16.08.2006 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR ANALYSED POSITION : 12.3N 117.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP092006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 16.08.2006 12.3N 117.2W WEAK 00UTC 17.08.2006 13.3N 120.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.08.2006 13.6N 122.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.08.2006 13.3N 125.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.08.2006 13.6N 128.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.08.2006 14.0N 131.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.08.2006 14.5N 133.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.08.2006 15.2N 136.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.08.2006 15.8N 138.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.08.2006 17.0N 141.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.08.2006 17.8N 142.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.08.2006 18.9N 144.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.08.2006 19.7N 145.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 7.6N 89.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 17.08.2006 7.6N 89.8W WEAK 00UTC 18.08.2006 7.8N 89.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.08.2006 8.7N 88.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.08.2006 9.2N 88.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.08.2006 9.5N 88.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.08.2006 9.7N 88.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.08.2006 10.0N 87.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.08.2006 10.3N 87.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.08.2006 9.6N 86.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.08.2006 9.6N 86.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.08.2006 10.0N 86.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 161650