** WTPQ20 BABJ 160600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS WUKONG 0610 (0610) INITIAL TIME 160600 UTC 00HR 30.0N 134.7E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H P+24HR 30.7N 132.4E 975HPA 30M/S P+48HR 31.8N 130.2E 970HPA 33M/S P+72HR 33.7N 129.3E 975HPA 30M/S= ** WTIN20 DEMS 160635 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 16-08-2006(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTH AND ADJOING CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL, ANDAMAN SEA AND PARTS OF EAST ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 29 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ?????????? ** WTPQ20 RJTD 160600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0610 WUKONG (0610) ANALYSIS PSTN 160600UTC 30.0N 134.5E FAIR MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 230NM EAST 170NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 170600UTC 31.0N 131.2E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 180600UTC 32.4N 128.7E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 72HF 190600UTC 34.6N 126.5E 220NM 70% MOVE NW 07KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 160600 *** WARNING 160600. WARNING VALID 170600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0610 WUKONG (0610) 985 HPA AT 30.0N 134.5E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 230 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 170 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 30.4N 132.8E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 31.0N 131.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 32.4N 128.7E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 34.6N 126.5E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 160600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 7 NAME TS 0610 WUKONG ANALYSIS POSITION 160600UTC 30.0N 134.5E MOVEMENT WNW 8KT PRES/VMAX 985HPA 41KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 170600UTC 30.9N 132.4E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 41KT 48HR POSITION 180600UTC 32.0N 130.2E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 41KT 72HR POSITION 190600UTC 33.1N 128.5E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 37KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTKO20 RKSL 160600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 7 NAME TS 0610 WUKONG ANALYSIS POSITION 160600UTC 30.0N 134.5E MOVEMENT WNW 8KT PRES/VMAX 985HPA 41KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 170600UTC 31.1N 132.0E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 41KT 48HR POSITION 180600UTC 32.2N 129.9E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 41KT 72HR POSITION 190600UTC 33.5N 128.1E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 37KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 160600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 8 FOR TS 0610 WUKONG (0610) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS THEN ACCELERATE. TS WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO WEST-NORTHWEST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPZ44 KNHC 160833 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 200 AM PDT WED AUG 16 2006 THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN MAINTAINING DEEP CORE CONVECTION ALL EVENING WITH INTERMITTENT BANDING...AND MICROWAVE PASSES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS JUST WITHIN THE CENTRAL CONVECTIVE MASS. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 06Z WERE T2.5...35 KT...FROM ALL AGENCIES...WITH DATA-T NUMBERS AS HIGH AS T3.5. A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 01Z CAUGHT SOME OF THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND THERE WERE A LOT OF 30 KT VECTORS OUTSIDE THE HEAVY CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT...WITH ONE VECTOR NEAR 35 KT. THE PASS MISSED THE DEEP CONVECTION AND LIKELY THE STRONGEST WINDS...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE SET TO 40 KT. IF THE CENTER IS WHERE I THINK IT IS...THE INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AT 270/13. THERE HAS BEEN ONLY A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...AND THE BASIC SYNOPTIC REASONING IS UNCHANGED. HECTOR IS MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM MEXICO. GLOBAL MODELS ALL SHOW THE RIDGE ERODED BY A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR 130W OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT DESPITE THIS EXHIBIT A FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD IN THE FORECAST TRACKS OF HECTOR. THE RIGHTMOST OUTLIERS ARE THE NOGAPS AND GFNI...WHICH START OFF THE CYCLONE WITH AN IMMEDIATE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THAT SEEMS INCONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT MOTION. ON THE LEFT IS THE UKMET...WHICH MARCHES HECTOR QUICKLY OFF TO THE WEST AND SUBSEQUENTLY MISSES THE TROUGH. THE INITIAL WESTWARD MOTION IN THE UKMET ALSO SEEMS INCONSISTENT WITH PRESENT TRENDS. THIS LEAVES THE GFS AND GFDL IN THE MIDDLE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THESE TWO MODELS THROUGH 96 HOURS. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS HECTOR PRESUMABLY WEAKENS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BENDS SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE WEST IN ACCORD WITH THE SHALLOW BAM. THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER HECTOR... ALTHOUGH THIS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO ABATE SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HECTOR ALSO HAS ALMOST TWO DAYS OVER WARM WATERS. THE GFDL BRINGS HECTOR TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48 HOURS...BUT THE SHIPS GUIDANCE TOPS OUT AT 54 KT. THE MAIN NEGATIVE PREDICTORS SEEM TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTRIBUTION OF COLD SATELLITE PIXEL COUNTS...WHICH I CANNOT RECONCILE WITH WHAT LOOKS LIKE A DECENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION. GIVEN THE INTENSIFICATION OVERNIGHT...I AM INCLINED TO FAVOR THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFDL...AND NOTE THAT THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE ALSO BRINGS HECTOR TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 36 HOURS. BY 72 HOURS...HECTOR IS EXPECTED TO BE DECAYING OVER COOLER WATERS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0900Z 13.1N 116.5W 40 KT 12HR VT 16/1800Z 13.4N 118.3W 50 KT 24HR VT 17/0600Z 14.0N 120.4W 60 KT 36HR VT 17/1800Z 14.6N 122.4W 65 KT 48HR VT 18/0600Z 15.5N 124.0W 70 KT 72HR VT 19/0600Z 17.5N 127.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 20/0600Z 19.5N 130.5W 45 KT 120HR VT 21/0600Z 21.0N 134.0W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTPZ24 KNHC 160833 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 0900 UTC WED AUG 16 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 116.5W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 75SE 75SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 116.5W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 115.9W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 13.4N 118.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 75SE 75SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.0N 120.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 14.6N 122.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 15.5N 124.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 17.5N 127.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 19.5N 130.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 21.0N 134.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 116.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTIN20 DEMS 160848 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 16-08-2006(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) SUB: DEPRESSION OVER BAY OF BENGAL. A DEPRESSION HAS FORMED OVER NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL AND LAY CENTRED AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY,THE 16TH AUGUST, 2006 NEAR LAT.20.5 DEG.N AND LONG.88.0 DEG.E,ABOUT 150 KMS SOUTHEAST OF BALASORE.THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE IN A WESTNORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND CROSS NORTH ORISSA-WEST BENGAL COAST BETWEEN PARADIP AND DIGHA BY TONIGHT OR TOMORROW EARLY MORNING. BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER ORISSA,NORTH COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH AND WEST BENGAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. MSG OVER ????/ ** WTPQ20 RJTD 160900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0610 WUKONG (0610) ANALYSIS PSTN 160900UTC 30.0N 134.1E FAIR MOVE W 06KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 230NM EAST 170NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 170900UTC 31.0N 131.1E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 45HF 180600UTC 32.4N 128.7E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 69HF 190600UTC 34.6N 126.5E 220NM 70% MOVE NW 07KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT =