** WTPQ20 BABJ 160000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS WUKONG 0610 (0610) INITIAL TIME 160000 UTC 00HR 29.6N 135.2E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 30.1N 131.6E 975HPA 30M/S P+48HR 31.5N 130.0E 970HPA 33M/S P+72HR 33.6N 129.0E 975HPA 30M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 160000 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS WUKONG 0610 (0610) INITIAL TIME 160000 UTC 00HR 29.6N 135.2E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 30.1N 131.6E 975HPA 30M/S P+48HR 31.5N 130.0E 970HPA 33M/S P+72HR 33.6N 129.0E 975HPA 30M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 160000 *** WARNING 160000. WARNING VALID 170000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0610 WUKONG (0610) 985 HPA AT 29.6N 135.3E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WEST 17 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 230 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 30.6N 131.9E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 31.8N 128.7E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 190000UTC AT 33.1N 125.7E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 160000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0610 WUKONG (0610) ANALYSIS PSTN 160000UTC 29.6N 135.3E FAIR MOVE W 17KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 230NM SOUTH 200NM NORTH FORECAST 24HF 170000UTC 30.6N 131.9E 80NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 180000UTC 31.8N 128.7E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 72HF 190000UTC 33.1N 125.7E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTPQ21 RJTD 160000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 0611 SONAMU (0611) ANALYSIS PSTN 160000UTC 30N 140E MOVE N 35KT PRES 996HPA = ** WTKO20 RKSL 160000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 6 NAME TD 0611 SONAMU ANALYSIS POSITION 160000UTC 30.0N 140.0E MOVEMENT N 35KT PRES 996HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 160000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 7 FOR TS 0610 WUKONG (0610) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 160000 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS THEN ACCELERATE. TS WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO WEST-NORTHWEST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN32 PGTW 160300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/160151Z AUG 06// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (SONAMU) WARNING NR 010 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 160000Z --- NEAR 30.2N 140.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 32 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 30.2N 140.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 33.6N 138.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 33.3N 134.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 160300Z POSITION NEAR 31.0N 139.7E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 12W (SONAMU) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM SOUTHEAST OF KYOTO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 32 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 09 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11W (WUKONG) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPZ44 KNHC 160231 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 800 PM PDT TUE AUG 15 2006 LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT T.D. NINE-E HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. ACCORDINGLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT. A RECENT TRMM PASS INDICATED A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER...IMPLYING SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT THE SHEAR WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO RESTRICT STRENGTHENING GIVEN AN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS MODEST STRENGTHENING THROUGH 48 HOURS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST SHIPS AND GFDL MODEL RUNS. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A MORE STABLE AIRMASS RESULTING IN GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 280/13...ESSENTIALLY RIGHT ALONG THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 48 HOUR AS IT MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. BEYOND 48 HOURS...A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY BETWEEN 125W AND 135W WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THIS SOLUTION SAVE THE UKMET WHICH MAINTAINS A STRONGER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE RESULTING IN A MORE WESTWARD MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS OF THE REMAINING DYNAMICAL MODELS RESULTING IN ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0300Z 13.3N 115.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 16/1200Z 13.5N 117.2W 35 KT 24HR VT 17/0000Z 14.0N 119.6W 45 KT 36HR VT 17/1200Z 14.7N 121.6W 55 KT 48HR VT 18/0000Z 15.8N 123.5W 65 KT 72HR VT 19/0000Z 17.8N 127.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 20/0000Z 20.0N 130.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 21/0000Z 22.0N 134.5W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH ** WTPZ24 KNHC 160231 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 0300 UTC WED AUG 16 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 115.3W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 115.3W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 114.7W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 13.5N 117.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.0N 119.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 45SE 45SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.7N 121.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 15.8N 123.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 45NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 17.8N 127.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 45NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 20.0N 130.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 22.0N 134.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 115.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH ** WTPN31 PGTW 160300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/160152ZAUG2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (WUKONG) WARNING NR 015 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 160000Z --- NEAR 29.6N 135.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 29.6N 135.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 29.6N 134.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 29.8N 132.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 30.1N 131.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 30.9N 130.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 32.2N 128.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 33.3N 126.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 33.7N 124.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 160300Z POSITION NEAR 29.6N 135.0E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (WUKONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM SOUTHEAST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. HOWEVER, RECENT SATELLITE FIX DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS SLOWED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE PAST THREE HOURS DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W. THE CURRENT FORECAST ACCOUNTS FOR THIS OBSERVED SLOWDOWN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z, 161500Z, 162100Z AND 170300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (SONAMU) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ20 RJTD 160300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0610 WUKONG (0610) ANALYSIS PSTN 160300UTC 29.9N 134.8E FAIR MOVE W 08KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 230NM EAST 170NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 170300UTC 30.8N 131.7E 80NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 45HF 180000UTC 31.8N 128.7E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 69HF 190000UTC 33.1N 125.7E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTNT80 EGRR 160518 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 16.08.2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.5N 114.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP092006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 16.08.2006 13.5N 114.0W WEAK 12UTC 16.08.2006 13.2N 117.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.08.2006 14.1N 120.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.08.2006 14.1N 123.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.08.2006 14.5N 125.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.08.2006 14.8N 128.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.08.2006 15.4N 131.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.08.2006 15.6N 134.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.08.2006 16.0N 137.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.08.2006 16.3N 139.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.08.2006 16.1N 142.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.08.2006 16.4N 143.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.08.2006 16.8N 144.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 160518