** WTPQ20 BABJ 151800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS SONAMU 0611 (0611) INITIAL TIME 151800 UTC 00HR 26.4N 139.9E 998HPA 18M/S 30KTS 120KM P12HR NNE 20KM/H P+24HR 28.9N 140.5E 998HPA 15M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 151800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS WUKONG 0610 (0610) INITIAL TIME 151800 UTC 00HR 29.9N 137.1E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR NNW 10KM/H P+24HR 31.0N 136.1E 975HPA 30M/S P+48HR 32.1N 133.8E 970HPA 33M/S P+72HR 32.5N 131.4E 975HPA 30M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 151800 *** WARNING 151800. WARNING VALID 161800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0610 WUKONG (0610) 985 HPA AT 29.7N 137.3E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 230 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 170 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 30.4N 133.4E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 31.2N 131.3E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 181800UTC AT 31.6N 128.9E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 151800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0610 WUKONG (0610) ANALYSIS PSTN 151800UTC 29.7N 137.3E FAIR MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 230NM SOUTH 170NM NORTH FORECAST 24HF 161800UTC 30.4N 133.4E 80NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 171800UTC 31.2N 131.3E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 050KT 72HF 181800UTC 31.6N 128.9E 220NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 050KT = ** WTPQ21 RJTD 151800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0611 SONAMU (0611) ANALYSIS PSTN 151800UTC 26.5N 140.1E FAIR MOVE NNE 27KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 130NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 161800UTC 31.9N 137.1E 100NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTJP22 RJTD 151800 *** WARNING 151800. WARNING VALID 161800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0611 SONAMU (0611) 992 HPA AT 26.5N 140.1E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 27 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 130 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 29.6N 140.0E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 31.9N 137.1E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 151800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 6 NAME TS 0610 WUKONG ANALYSIS POSITION 151800UTC 29.7N 137.3E MOVEMENT WNW 8KT PRES/VMAX 985HPA 41KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 161800UTC 31.2N 134.7E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 52KT 48HR POSITION 171800UTC 31.8N 132.6E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 56KT 72HR POSITION 181800UTC 32.0N 130.5E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 45KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPN21 PGTW 151900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.8N 111.4W TO 14.3N 116.9W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM- AGERY AT 151200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 111.7W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 12.8N 111.7W, APPROXIMATELY 560 NM SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO, HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A 151306Z AMSU PASS DEPICTED A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH WEAK BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT. THE AMSU PASS ALSO SHOWED GOOD CONVERGENCE AND THE DEEPEST CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. RECENT QUIKSCAT IMAGERY DEPICTED A WELL-DEFINED, ELONGATED LLCC EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALED A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LLCC LOCATED UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND SOUTHEAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, AS WELL AS WEAK SHEAR, AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THE SYSTEM IS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1002 MB. DUE TO IMPROVED OVERALL ORGANIZATION AND THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 161900Z.// ** WTKO20 RKSL 151800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 5 NAME TS 0611 SONAMU ANALYSIS POSITION 151800UTC 26.5N 140.1E MOVEMENT NNE 27KT PRES/VMAX 992HPA 41KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 161800UTC 32.0N 140.0E WITHIN 0NM PRES 996HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPN21 PHNC 151900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.8N 111.4W TO 14.3N 116.9W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM- AGERY AT 151200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 111.7W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 12.8N 111.7W, APPROXIMATELY 560 NM SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO, HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A 151306Z AMSU PASS DEPICTED A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH WEAK BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT. THE AMSU PASS ALSO SHOWED GOOD CONVERGENCE AND THE DEEPEST CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. RECENT QUIKSCAT IMAGERY DEPICTED A WELL-DEFINED, ELONGATED LLCC EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALED A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LLCC LOCATED UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND SOUTHEAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, AS WELL AS WEAK SHEAR, AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THE SYSTEM IS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1002 MB. DUE TO IMPROVED OVERALL ORGANIZATION AND THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 161900Z.// ** WTPZ24 KNHC 152025 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 2100 UTC TUE AUG 15 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 114.1W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 114.1W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 113.3W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 13.4N 115.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 13.9N 117.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 45SE 45SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.3N 119.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 15.1N 121.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 45NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 17.1N 125.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 45NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 19.5N 129.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 22.0N 133.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 114.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART ** WTPZ44 KNHC 152028 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 200 PM PDT TUE AUG 15 2006 THE WELL DEFINED LOW WHICH BEEN TRACKED FOR THE PAST DAY OR TWO HAS ATTAINED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...THE NINTH OF THE SEASON IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC. CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 25 AND 30 KT RESPECTIVELY FROM SAB AND TAFB AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE SET AT 30 KT. MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER MAY BE LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND...DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL CLOSELY AND BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48 HOURS. BY 96 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND STEADILY WEAKEN. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 280/12. THE DEPRESSION SHOULD BE STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CURRENTLY BETWEEN 125W AND 130W IS FORECAST TO SHIFT WESTWARD...ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTWARD IN 2-3 DAYS. BASED ON THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION...THE FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE FASTER AND ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST 24-48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE TRACK REMAINS A LITTLE LEFT OF THE CONU MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/2100Z 13.0N 114.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 16/0600Z 13.4N 115.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 16/1800Z 13.9N 117.6W 45 KT 36HR VT 17/0600Z 14.3N 119.6W 55 KT 48HR VT 17/1800Z 15.1N 121.6W 65 KT 72HR VT 18/1800Z 17.1N 125.3W 65 KT 96HR VT 19/1800Z 19.5N 129.0W 50 KT 120HR VT 20/1800Z 22.0N 133.0W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART ** WTPN31 PGTW 152100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/151952Z AUG 06// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (WUKONG) WARNING NR 014 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 151800Z --- NEAR 30.0N 136.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 30.0N 136.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 30.5N 134.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 30.9N 133.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 31.0N 131.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 31.7N 130.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 32.7N 128.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 33.6N 127.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 34.2N 125.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 152100Z POSITION NEAR 30.1N 136.2E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (WUKONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z, 161500Z AND 162100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (SONAMU) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 152100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/151951Z AUG 06// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (SONAMU) WARNING NR 009 DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 12W 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 151800Z --- NEAR 26.0N 140.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 23 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 26.0N 140.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 29.7N 140.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 32.5N 138.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 152100Z POSITION NEAR 26.9N 140.2E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 12W (SONAMU) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM NORTHWEST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 23 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11W (WUKONG) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ31 RJTD 151800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 5 FOR TS 0611 SONAMU (0611) 5.REMARKS GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST BY NUMERICAL MODEL ON TS 0611 SONAMU (0611) AT 18 UTC IS VALID TILL 6 HOURS. THIS IS A SPECIAL ISSUE TO REPORT VALID PORTION OF RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 152100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0610 WUKONG (0610) ANALYSIS PSTN 152100UTC 30.1N 135.8E FAIR MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 230NM SOUTH 170NM NORTH FORECAST 24HF 162100UTC 30.5N 132.9E 80NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 45HF 171800UTC 31.2N 131.3E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 050KT 69HF 181800UTC 31.6N 128.9E 220NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 050KT = ** WTPQ21 RJTD 152100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0611 SONAMU (0611) ANALYSIS PSTN 152100UTC 27.8N 140.1E FAIR MOVE N 29KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 130NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 162100UTC 32.6N 136.1E 100NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPN31 PHNC 152200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/151851AUG2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09E WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 151800Z --- NEAR 12.9N 113.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 13.0N 114.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 13.9N 115.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 13.9N 117.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 14.3N 119.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 15.1N 121.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 17.1N 125.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 19.5N 129.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 22.0N 133.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: 152200Z POSITION NEAR 13.3N 114.6W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 9 FEET. AT 151800Z TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED 854 NM WSW OF ACAPULCO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160400Z, 161000Z, 161600Z AND 162200Z.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 152200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/151851AUG2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09E WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 151800Z --- NEAR 12.9N 113.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 13.0N 114.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 13.9N 115.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 13.9N 117.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 14.3N 119.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 15.1N 121.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 17.1N 125.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 19.5N 129.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 22.0N 133.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: 152200Z POSITION NEAR 13.3N 114.6W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 9 FEET. AT 151800Z TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED 854 NM WSW OF ACAPULCO. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 151851ZAUG2006 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 151900). NEXT WARNINGS AT 160400Z, 161000Z, 161600Z AND 162200Z.//