** WTPQ20 BABJ 150600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS WUKONG 0610 (0610) INITIAL TIME 150600 UTC 00HR 28.9N 138.5E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR NW 5KM/H P+24HR 30.5N 138.0E 975HPA 30M/S P+48HR 31.2N 135.1E 970HPA 33M/S P+72HR 30.6N 132.4E 960HPA 38M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 150600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS SONAMU 0611 (0611) INITIAL TIME 150600 UTC 00HR 22.3N 137.2E 995HPA 20M/S 30KTS 150KM P12HR NE 25KM/H P+24HR 27.4N 139.7E 990HPA 23M/S P+48HR 30.9N 136.8E 995HPA 20M/S= ** WTIN20 DEMS 150648 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 15-08-2006(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTH AND ADJOINING EAST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL, AND ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 30 DEG NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTJP21 RJTD 150600 *** WARNING 150600. WARNING VALID 160600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0610 WUKONG (0610) 985 HPA AT 28.9N 138.2E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 08 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 230 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 170 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 30.1N 136.9E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 30.9N 134.4E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 31.2N 133.2E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 150600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0610 WUKONG (0610) ANALYSIS PSTN 150600UTC 28.9N 138.2E FAIR MOVE N 08KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 230NM SOUTH 170NM NORTH FORECAST 24HF 160600UTC 30.1N 136.9E 80NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 975HPA MXWD 055KT 48HF 170600UTC 30.9N 134.4E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 965HPA MXWD 060KT 72HF 180600UTC 31.2N 133.2E 220NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 965HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTIN20 DEMS 150648 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 15-08-2006(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTH AND ADJOINING EAST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL, AND ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 30 DEG NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTJP22 RJTD 150600 *** WARNING 150600. WARNING VALID 160600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0611 SONAMU (0611) 992 HPA AT 22.3N 137.2E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 20 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 130 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 27.4N 139.5E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 150600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0611 SONAMU (0611) ANALYSIS PSTN 150600UTC 22.3N 137.2E GOOD MOVE NE 20KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 130NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 160600UTC 27.4N 139.5E 100NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTKO20 RKSL 150600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 5 NAME TS 0610 WUKONG ANALYSIS POSITION 150600UTC 28.9N 138.2E MOVEMENT N 8KT PRES/VMAX 985HPA 41KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 160600UTC 30.4N 137.0E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 52KT 48HR POSITION 170600UTC 31.4N 134.8E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 965HPA 60KT 72HR POSITION 180600UTC 32.0N 132.7E WITHIN 230NM PRES/VMAX 960HPA 64KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 150600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 6 FOR TS 0610 WUKONG (0610) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 150600 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN DECELERATE. TS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE TO WEST-NORTHWEST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL BE GRADED UP TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 150600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 4 NAME TS 0611 SONAMU ANALYSIS POSITION 150600UTC 22.3N 137.2E MOVEMENT NE 20KT PRES/VMAX 992HPA 37KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 160600UTC 27.4N 139.3E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 992HPA 37KT 48HR POSITION 170600UTC 32.4N 140.0E WITHIN 0NM PRES 996HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ31 RJTD 150600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 4 FOR TS 0611 SONAMU (0611) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 150600 UTC IS GOOD. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO NORTH-NORTHEAST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL BE GRADED DOWN TO TD WITHIN 24 HOURS. TS WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTER HAS SEPARATED FROM LOW LEVEL CIRCURATION CENTER= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 150900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0610 WUKONG (0610) ANALYSIS PSTN 150900UTC 29.1N 138.2E FAIR MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 230NM SOUTH 170NM NORTH FORECAST 24HF 160900UTC 30.1N 136.3E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 975HPA MXWD 055KT 45HF 170600UTC 30.9N 134.4E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 965HPA MXWD 060KT 69HF 180600UTC 31.2N 133.2E 220NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 965HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 150900 *** WARNING 150900. WARNING VALID 160900. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0610 WUKONG (0610) 985 HPA AT 29.1N 138.2E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 230 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 170 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 160900UTC AT 30.1N 136.3E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 150900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0611 SONAMU (0611) ANALYSIS PSTN 150900UTC 23.2N 138.3E GOOD MOVE NE 20KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 130NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 160900UTC 29.7N 138.4E 100NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =