** WTPQ20 RJTD 150000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0610 WUKONG (0610) ANALYSIS PSTN 150000UTC 27.8N 138.4E FAIR MOVE NNE SLOWLY PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 230NM SOUTH 150NM NORTH FORECAST 24HF 160000UTC 29.8N 137.8E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 975HPA MXWD 055KT 48HF 170000UTC 30.9N 135.8E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 965HPA MXWD 060KT 72HF 180000UTC 32.6N 134.2E 220NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 965HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 150000 *** WARNING 150000. WARNING VALID 160000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0610 WUKONG (0610) 985 HPA AT 27.8N 138.4E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 230 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 29.8N 137.8E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 30.9N 135.8E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 32.6N 134.2E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 150000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS SONAMU 0611 (0611) INITIAL TIME 150000 UTC 00HR 21.2N 135.4E 995HPA 20M/S 30KTS 150KM P12HR NE 20KM/H P+24HR 25.5N 138.1E 990HPA 23M/S P+48HR 30.0N 138.9E 985HPA 25M/S P+72HR 34.5N 138.8E 985HPA 25M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 150000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS WUKONG 0610 (0610) INITIAL TIME 150000 UTC 00HR 27.8N 138.2E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR NW 5KM/H P+24HR 29.4N 137.6E 975HPA 30M/S P+48HR 30.2N 135.4E 970HPA 33M/S P+72HR 30.7N 132.7E 960HPA 38M/S= ** WTJP22 RJTD 150000 *** WARNING 150000. WARNING VALID 160000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0611 SONAMU (0611) 992 HPA AT 21.0N 135.5E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 15 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 130 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 25.2N 138.6E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 29.5N 138.3E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 150000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0611 SONAMU (0611) ANALYSIS PSTN 150000UTC 21.0N 135.5E FAIR MOVE ENE 15KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 150NM SOUTH 130NM NORTH FORECAST 24HF 160000UTC 25.2N 138.6E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 12KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 035KT 48HF 170000UTC 29.5N 138.3E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 150000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 5 FOR TS 0610 WUKONG (0610) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 150000 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NORTHWEST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL BE GRADED UP TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE NEAR CYCLONE CENTER HAS BECOME COLDER AND CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 4.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ31 RJTD 150000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 3 FOR TS 0611 SONAMU (0611) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 150000 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO NORTH. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 150300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/150152Z AUG 06// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (WUKONG) WARNING NR 011 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 150000Z --- NEAR 27.8N 138.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 27.8N 138.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 28.5N 138.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 29.2N 137.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 29.9N 136.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 30.5N 135.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 32.0N 133.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 33.3N 132.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 34.5N 131.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 150300Z POSITION NEAR 28.0N 138.2E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (WUKONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. HOWEVER, MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGER SINCE 142330Z INDICATES THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM HAS SHIFTED TO THE WEST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z, 151500Z, 152100Z AND 160300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12W (SONAMU) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX- HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 150300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/150151AUG2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (SONAMU) WARNING NR 006 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 150000Z --- NEAR 21.3N 135.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 19 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.3N 135.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 24.1N 138.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 27.1N 139.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 30.0N 139.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 150300Z POSITION NEAR 22.0N 136.2E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (SONAMU) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 19 KTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z, 151500Z, 152100Z AND 160300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11W (WUKONG) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ20 RJTD 150300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0610 WUKONG (0610) ANALYSIS PSTN 150300UTC 28.7N 138.4E FAIR MOVE N 10KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 230NM SOUTH 150NM NORTH FORECAST 24HF 160300UTC 29.8N 137.7E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 975HPA MXWD 055KT 45HF 170000UTC 30.9N 135.8E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 965HPA MXWD 060KT 69HF 180000UTC 32.6N 134.2E 220NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 965HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 150300 *** WARNING 150300. WARNING VALID 160300. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0610 WUKONG (0610) 985 HPA AT 28.7N 138.4E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 230 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 160300UTC AT 29.8N 137.7E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPH RPLL 150000 *** TTT GALE WARNING 06 (FINAL) AT 0000 15 AUGUST TROPICAL STORM (SONAMU) (0611) WAS ESTIMATED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO ONE POINT ONE NORTH ONE THREE FIVE NORTH FIVE EAST MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT ZERO SEVEN METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADUIS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE SEVEN MAXIMUM WINDS ONE EIGHT METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 160000 TWO FIVE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE THREE EIGHT POINT SEVEN EAST WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT THIS IS THE FINAL WRNING ON THIS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE PD. WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 150300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0611 SONAMU (0611) ANALYSIS PSTN 150300UTC 21.7N 136.3E FAIR MOVE NE 20KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 150NM SOUTH 130NM NORTH FORECAST 24HF 160300UTC 26.3N 139.3E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 13KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 035KT 45HF 170000UTC 29.5N 138.3E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTNT80 EGRR 150539 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 15.08.2006 TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 10.8N 110.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 15.08.2006 10.8N 110.6W WEAK 12UTC 15.08.2006 11.1N 113.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.08.2006 11.5N 115.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.08.2006 10.7N 119.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.08.2006 10.7N 120.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.08.2006 13.9N 122.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.08.2006 14.5N 124.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.08.2006 15.2N 127.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.08.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 150539